Sox and Padres Still Talking Wil Myers Deal

Big thumbs up to this move if we can pull it off. Wouldn't paying half of Myers contract only count for like $4M against the tax? Plenty of room to just absorb and cut if needed provided the prospect return is sufficient. Even just Quantrill alone would be nice.

This has a chance to make the Mookie trade look quite a bit better when you consider the extra money saved on Price's contract would go towards Myers and the prospects he brings with him.

When we were looking at Padre's prospects for a potential trade, ramireja pointed out their #13 prospect Arias as a good get. His profile looks pretty interesting.

m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sd


Many here wanted Campusano. I know Ian preferred Lucchesi to Quantrill but maybe the Sox can figure out something with his trouble with lefties. Would probably prefer him to the opener.

This would be quite a deal if Bloom can get all three.

They're not getting all 3 unless they take on Myers' entire contract and they're not doing that. And I doubt the Pads, as much as they want to get out from under, want to part with that many prospects. Sounds like their plan is to clear some payroll to add a guy like Lindor or maybe to get Senzel. Either way they'll need to part with some of their prospects so clearing them out to dump Myers isn't likely although parting with one could happen.

Honestly if it's just Quantrill, then if I'm the Red Sox, I pass. He isn't worth taking on $10 million/year. Campusano is a different story.

This trade makes sense as an arbitrage opportunity. Myers at half price makes $15 million a year with a $7 million AAV. The Sox care more about AAV than salary, and the Padres don't benefit from his depressed AAV. The Sox probably feel like the money they have under the luxury tax this year is burning a hole in their pocket, if Henry's history is any indication. They don't have a lot of obvious opportunities available to spend this year left.

They should be getting back something $20 million in surplus value for taking on Myers at 3/30. Campusano by himself would be a pretty good return. Arias alone would be a good return if you go by ZiPS. It's difficult to value Quantrill since his performance record is not impressive, but it seems like the Sox want to bet on him.

Myers is owed $61mil over the next 3 years (includes year 4 buyout). If the Padres pay for half then it cuts 30.5 mil (it doesn't also cut in half like the payroll) off of his remaining AAV total of $41.5mil which brings down his AAV to 11mil over 3 years - or 3.67mil/year AAV for tax purposes.

To me this looks like the Red Sox knowing they need a 5th starter and determining the ability/cost for Quantrill is greater than that of any current free agents.

Quantrill has some interesting numbers, both in terms of splits and SP/RP:


Season Handedness IP ERA TBF H 2B 3B R ER HR BB IBB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA
2019 vs L        59.2 - - - 270 70 15 2 35 34 10 24 2 1 43 .290 .354 .494 .353
2019 vs R        43.1 - - - 173 36 3 1 26 25 5 4 0 2 46 .217 .243 .337 .246

Season Handedness K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP xFIP
2019 vs L        6.49 3.62 1.79 1.51 15.9 % 8.9 % 7.0 % - - - 1.58 .313 74.1 % 5.21 5.56
2019 vs R        9.55 0.83 11.50 1.04 26.6 % 2.3 % 24.3 % - - - 0.92 .267 45.7 % 3.01 3.11



Season SP / RP IP ERA TBF H 2B 3B R ER HR BB IBB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA
2019 As Starter 91.2 5.69 400 100 18 3 60 58 15 24 1 3 78 .272 .319 .459 .326
2019 As Reliever 11.1 0.79 43 6 0 0 1 1 0 4 1 0 11 .154 .233 .154 .174

Season SP / RP        K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP xFIP
2019 As Starter 7.66 2.36 3.25 1.47 19.5 % 6.0 % 13.5 % .272 1.35 .304 63.2 % 4.52 4.59
2019 As Reliever 8.74 3.18 2.75 0.00 25.6 % 9.3 % 16.3 % .154 0.88 .214 90.0 % 2.33 4.09


Based on the numbers - this could also mean that the Red Sox plan to go with an opener in the 5th rotation slot, in which case Quantrill would fit-in quite well if used around the LHB.

Yes, and the recommendation is that poor teams should structure contracts so that they pay more money later, and rich teams should structure contracts so that they pay less money later.  Thus when a team needs a tax bargain but has plenty of cash it can acquire an expensive player with a low AAV, or trade a player with a high AAV but a low (in coming years) paycheck.

Gabriel Arias | Rank: 13 (Preseason: 25)
Team: Lake Elsinore Storm (A Adv) ETA: 2021
Position: SS Age: 19 DOB: 02/27/2000
Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6' 1" Weight: 201 lb.
Signed: July 2, 2016 - SD
Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45

Arias, one of the top prospects in the 2016-17 international class, received $1.9 million as the Padres blew past their spending pool during the signing period. At age 17, he was promoted to Class A Fort Wayne and held his own, hitting .276 in the Midwest League playoffs before turning in a strong showing in the Australian Baseball League. Arias remained with Fort Wayne for the entirety of the '18 season, and he slumped to a .654 OPS. But he remained an expert defensively, and he came on strong offensively toward the end of the season.

Arias has all the tools to become a plus defender at short, where he has very good hands, footwork and control of his body. His arm strength and range make it clear he's cut out for the position long-term. He has strides to make at the plate, however. A right-handed hitter, Arias' swing can get long and his plate approach needs a bit of work.

If he can refine his swing, Arias is expected to generate some power as he develops physically. He already hits the ball hard, gap-to-gap. Arias' defensive value gives him a relatively high floor, but it's the entire package on both sides of the ball that has club officials excited about the teenager's bright future.


Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
LE (A+) 120 477 62 144 21 4 17 75 25 128 8 .302 .339 .470 .809


Crazy this guy is only their 13th ranked prospect, hitting .302 at high-AA with plus defense and a plus arm at short. Would be great if they could get him along with Quantrill.

m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sd

Thanks for the correction, wcsoxfan. I misunderstood how this works.

Assuming the Sox are done in free agency, they have room to eat about $45 million of Myers' deal. They would leave them with a few million under the tax to play with during the season.

If they agree, it does mean that Henry cares more about the CBT than the cash outlay. Still don't understand, but at least a consistent story.

For whatever it's worth here's Rob Bradford's take on it from his WEEI.com article:

"The Red Sox' interest in such a trade is more about acquiring a young starting pitcher in return, with top Padres prospect Cal Quantrill seemingly high on Chaim Bloom's list."

I hope that's not what this is about. Taking on 3 years $30 million of the mediocre Myers to get just Cal Quantrill would be a disappointment. They shouldn't have to take on that kind of money and player to get a back end starter.

The new market inefficiency is trading expensive players with tons of cash for prospects.  Imagine how much Chris Sale could fetch if they sent $150 million with him.