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Post by Addam603 on Mar 20, 2022 10:17:46 GMT -5
Now that Story has signed to play 2nd base for this year, the last real pressing need looks to be the third outfield position. In my mind, it looks like there are three options that don’t involve making a trade.
Stick with what you’ve got. Involves JBJ getting started level reps in the outfield.
Tommy Pham
Michael Conforto (would lose the Sox their 3rd round pick along with the 2nd they lost for signing Story).
Personally, I would go with Conforto, assuming they can get him on a short term deal or for low money. The Sox are getting a comp pick for E-Rod and keeping the pick for Fabian, so even if they lose their own 2nd and 3rd, they come out roughly even. With the moves that the other teams in the AL (especially the East) made, I think the argument for going for it has to be made.
I’m interested in what others think or any logical trade options would be.
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Post by jdb on Mar 20, 2022 10:18:15 GMT -5
I wonder if with the Story signing we are still 100% on a RH OF bat or does it open up LH? Given up a 3rd round pick for Conforto doesn’t sound awful.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 20, 2022 10:28:17 GMT -5
Depends on what you (or the opinion who really counts, Bloom) thinks that Jarren Duran is a big part of the plan going forward.
If he is they likely sign Pham for backup purposes. Or I guess they could simply try Arroyo out in the outfield? I mean they're already looking at Dalbec in the outfield based on what Tristan Casas might do as the year progresses.
I do think Duran begins the year in AAA with JBJ platooning.
I dont think Bloom wants to part with another draft pick or block Duran and with Story signed I dont think Duran in CF and Hernandez at 2b will really happen much, especially with Arroyo around.
If Bloom does sign Conforto then he doesn't believe in Duran after all. I don't think the Sox sign Conforto.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2022 10:36:21 GMT -5
Some trade targets:
Will Myers - RHH, bad fielder, average hitter. 1-1.5 WAR projection. Owed $21 milllion for one year that counts $13 million against CBT. Negative trade value
JD Davis - RHH, butcher that can play 3B badly too, little above average at the plate. 1.5'ish WAR projection. Entering first year of arb, probably costs something like one prospect in the teens.
Kevin Kiermaier - LHH, elite fielder, bad hitter. 2 WAR projection. Owed $14.5 million for one year
Anthony Santander - RHH, average fielder, mediocre hitter. 1.5 WAR projection. Entering first year of arb making 3.5 million. Similar value to JD Davis
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Post by jmei on Mar 20, 2022 10:39:25 GMT -5
Given Bloom’s historical focus on depth and positional flexibility, I would not see an outfield acquisition as an indictment of Duran. He’s not a “he’s my right fielder” kind of GM who just slots guys into starting positions and calls it a day. He thinks about plans B, C and D to prepare for injury or underperformance.
With that said, I could see it being more of a spaghetti against the wall approach (with JBJ, Duran, Arroyo and a couple under-the-radar guys competing for a starting spot) rather than a sign one of the best available outfielders (Conforto, Pham) approach.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Mar 20, 2022 10:39:27 GMT -5
I wonder if with the Story signing we are still 100% on a RH OF bat or does it open up LH? Given up a 3rd round pick for Conforto doesn’t sound awful. Conforto would be good here but he really needs to stay healthy. 2 seasons with over 500 at bats. |
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 20, 2022 10:42:21 GMT -5
I really don't like not having a RH bat who is worthy of CF to play RF in Fenway. So I have zero interest in Pham or Conforto.
Verdugo isn't good enough for RF either.
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Post by manfred on Mar 20, 2022 11:01:55 GMT -5
Do people think Arroyo could play a serviceable outfield? I have come around to the idea of not signing a FA. I like Conforto but with a pick and the money and the left-handedness… maybe too many minuses.
With Story, I figure the offense from the infield will be pretty explosive. At least against righties, JBJ and Kiké give you pretty awesome D, even if JBJ might be subpar at the plate. If Arroyo could be average, I coold live with Arroyo, Kiké, and Verdugo against lefties. Maybe someone is available later.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 20, 2022 11:04:25 GMT -5
The main thing that is needed is a RH RF so that JBJ isn't platooning with Verdugo, not being counted on as a starter.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 20, 2022 11:38:35 GMT -5
Take on Myers + prospects.
Put Verdugo in left, Kiké in CF and Myers in RF, with JBJ available as a defensive replacement.
Go into the season with more prospects to spend at the deadline to get our actual guy for the outfield / give us more time to see if Duran can help us this year.
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Post by classylefthander on Mar 20, 2022 11:44:59 GMT -5
Some trade targets: Will Myers - RHH, bad fielder, average hitter. 1-1.5 WAR projection. Owed $21 milllion for one year that counts $13 million against CBT. Negative trade valueJD Davis - RHH, butcher that can play 3B badly too, little above average at the plate. 1.5'ish WAR projection. Entering first year of arb, probably costs something like one prospect in the teens. Kevin Kiermaier - LHH, elite fielder, bad hitter. 2 WAR projection. Owed $14.5 million for one year Anthony Santander - RHH, average fielder, mediocre hitter. 1.5 WAR projection. Entering first year of arb making 3.5 million. Similar value to JD Davis This is from a Tim Dierkes chat on 3/17: Matt Gelb pointed out something I didn't know, with regard to Kiermaier-Phillies: "The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold). i cannot find the new CBA online to research this. But Myers would cost $21mm. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2022 11:52:10 GMT -5
Good find
So if KK is traded, his $53 million contract would end up costing $60 million in total against the CBT. Stealthy way of effectively lowering the CBT line.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Mar 20, 2022 12:01:43 GMT -5
Take on Myers + prospects. Put Verdugo in left, Kiké in CF and Myers in RF, with JBJ available as a defensive replacement. Go into the season with more prospects to spend at the deadline to get our actual guy for the outfield / give us more time to see if Duran can help us this year. My preference as well. After they got Voit, seems like either Hosmer or Myers has to go, although I guess they can DH now. |
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 20, 2022 12:43:46 GMT -5
It makes way too much sense to blow through the luxury tax, get a prospect for taking on the Will Myers contract, and platoon JBJ / Myers.
Also favorable that Myers is owed $21M cash but only counts for $13M against the tax.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 20, 2022 13:26:52 GMT -5
I'd like to see Dalbec take some reps out there this spring and see how he looks. If Casas forces his way up to the majors this year the team could live with both of them in the lineup. Things could become complicated if JBJ has a bounce-back year.....but would you really complain then?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 20, 2022 13:31:51 GMT -5
If JBJ has a strong Spring, we can negotiate from a position of strength and get our outfielder in a trade. I think I prefer that than overpaying in free agency to force a fit unless its to take on a guy like Myers.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 20, 2022 13:39:13 GMT -5
If JBJ has a strong Spring, we can negotiate from a position of strength and get our outfielder in a trade. I think I prefer that than overpaying in free agency to force a fit unless its to take on a guy like Myers. Yeah, I'm ok with addressing the need at some point during the season. But I hope it doesn't become desperation, like when they finally realized that Grady Sizemore wasn't going to bounce back to be able to start in CF. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 20, 2022 14:38:03 GMT -5
Good find So if KK is traded, his $53 million contract would end up costing $60 million in total against the CBT. Stealthy way of effectively lowering the CBT line. This should have a close-to net-zero effect overall. Previously non-taxpaying teams had an advantage when backloading contracts but taxpaying teams also had an advantage in frontloading contracts. Naturally contracts are more backloaded than frontloaded (allows for raises to the players, anticipates future revenues and overall mortgages the team's future for the present) but I doubt this is significant. More likely the commissioner didn't like a loophole where teams could try to game the system. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2022 14:55:27 GMT -5
Good find So if KK is traded, his $53 million contract would end up costing $60 million in total against the CBT. Stealthy way of effectively lowering the CBT line. This should have a close-to net-zero effect overall. Previously non-taxpaying teams had an advantage when backloading contracts but taxpaying teams also had an advantage in frontloading contracts. Naturally contracts are more backloaded than frontloaded (allows for raises to the players, anticipates future revenues and overall mortgages the team's future for the present) but I doubt this is significant. More likely the commissioner didn't like a loophole where teams could try to game the system. Contracts that have simulated cheap pre-free agency years that are far below the AAV are not uncommon. Wander Franco for instance: 22:$1M, 23:$2M, 24:$2M, 25:$8M, 26:$15M, 27:$22M, 28:$25M, 29:$25M, 30:$25M, 31:$25M, 32:$25M, 33:$25M club option, $2M buyout. There is no frontloaded equivalent.
I believe JBJ had a CBT number below his AAV, but I can't remember the details. SOmeone should figure out if we got screwed on that.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 20, 2022 15:01:28 GMT -5
In the short term, the Story signing shifted the JBJ/Arroyo platoon from 2B/CF to the OF corner. Long term, I would anticipate Dalbec to join that discussion (once Casas is promoted ~June). And of course, J.D. Martinez played 299 1/3 innings in the OF last year (although none of us want to see him injure himself running over 2B again).
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 20, 2022 15:06:49 GMT -5
Some trade targets: Will Myers - RHH, bad fielder, average hitter. 1-1.5 WAR projection. Owed $21 milllion for one year that counts $13 million against CBT. Negative trade valueJD Davis - RHH, butcher that can play 3B badly too, little above average at the plate. 1.5'ish WAR projection. Entering first year of arb, probably costs something like one prospect in the teens. Kevin Kiermaier - LHH, elite fielder, bad hitter. 2 WAR projection. Owed $14.5 million for one year Anthony Santander - RHH, average fielder, mediocre hitter. 1.5 WAR projection. Entering first year of arb making 3.5 million. Similar value to JD Davis This is from a Tim Dierkes chat on 3/17: Matt Gelb pointed out something I didn't know, with regard to Kiermaier-Phillies: "The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold). i cannot find the new CBA online to research this. But Myers would cost $21mm. I'm a little confused about this now that I'm thinking about it. Is the reverse also true? If a player's contract is front loaded, will the AAV of a traded player be the actual dollar amount being paid at the end of the deal? The Red Sox could get creative with deals if so to acquire a lot of prospects from cap starved teams later on in the contract. |
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 20, 2022 15:32:40 GMT -5
JBJ averaged 3.3 WAR / 650 PA his last three years in a Red Sox uni, at ages 28 to 30. (If you weight it by years like a Marcel projection, it's actually higher.)
He's always been a super-streaky guy. An interesting Q: what would happen if he went to a team that literally had less than zero understanding of how to deal with his slumps, both mechanically and psychologically? Well, we think we know, right? We know for a fact that he started ice cold (as is almost always the case) and, unlike every other year, never got it going. So the above is an obvious explanation.
We once traded for a guy who was coming off a -0.1 WAR year after averaging 3.4 WAR / 650 (3.3 actual) in his age 28 to 30 seasons. He put up a 4.2 / 650 (4.1 actual) in the 2 remaining years of his contract, capping it off with a WS MVP.
For some reason I think that replacing JBJ with a guy less good is a bad idea.
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Post by carl4sox on Mar 20, 2022 15:39:18 GMT -5
Great signing and very creative contract, Chaim.
Now the loss of Schwarbs doesn't hurt so much.
I'm all for Myers + good prospect.
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Post by orcoaster on Mar 20, 2022 16:02:06 GMT -5
I would like to see JBJ start the season in right field. I think he will bounce back nicely. He is not that far removed from 110+ OPS seasons. He's certainly much more likely to be around 90 OPS than the 34 he posted last year. His defense was as good as ever last year; he's a great fit in Fenway's demanding right field and a good partner for Kiké. He could well match or surpass 2021 Renfroe's 2.3 WAR. Even if JBJ exceeds expectations, I would expect the team to upgrade the position before the deadline a la Schwarber. If he is indeed cooked, mid-season acquisition possibilities will become available as teams fade from contention. Chaim "Wait n' See" Bloom thrives in that environment.
Picking up Meyer + prospects is attractive, especially if the prospect is one of SD's catchers. However, doing so compromises the quality of this year's team as well as the ability to make it better. It's a long play, and I'm not sure Bloom wants to sandbag 2022 this early. If the team is out of contention in July, by all means do this during the firesale.
I'm not all that high on Duran. His speed, pop, and guns are flashy, but he has no elite or even very good skills. Even his speed translates only in taking an extra base as a head-down runner. He does not have particularly good baserunning instincts and is not a base stealer. He's not a good defender and seems confused at the plate. Maybe he figures it out, but at his age that is not likely. His best value seems to me is as a trade chip.
None of the other options are attractive to me, and certainly not worth the contract or acquisition costs. The team as currently constructed is ready to start the season, imo. In fact, our biggest liability right now is one no one talks about -- catcher.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 20, 2022 16:18:18 GMT -5
This is from a Tim Dierkes chat on 3/17: Matt Gelb pointed out something I didn't know, with regard to Kiermaier-Phillies: "The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold). i cannot find the new CBA online to research this. But Myers would cost $21mm. I'm a little confused about this now that I'm thinking about it. Is the reverse also true? If a player's contract is front loaded, will the AAV of a traded player be the actual dollar amount being paid at the end of the deal? The Red Sox could get creative with deals if so to acquire a lot of prospects from cap starved teams later on in the contract. I like where you're thinking. In theory, the luxury tax restricted teams could front-load contracts and trade them amongst themselves toward the end of those contracts. It would be complicated/difficult as these types of trades usually take place between the haves and have-nots, but it seems like there will be trades in the future where this will happen. I still think this greatly reduces the frequency of gaming the system, but good call on finding the new loophole. |
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