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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 24, 2022 10:28:09 GMT -5
I dunno guys, when you hit .163/.236/.261 over 428 PA's, I'm going to hold that against you an awful lot when forecasting your next season.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Mar 24, 2022 10:32:39 GMT -5
I think the whole JBJ vs. Renfroe argument is an example of recency bias. In 2019 and 2020 (and before) JBJ was clearly the better player, but after 2021 JBJ is all of a sudden a massive downgrade. Renfroe had a .315 OBP last year, that’s not great…mix that in with sloppy defense, it’s possible JBJ is an upgrade. It is funny how last year people viewed Renfroe as the upgrade… coming off bad years! My memory is that lots of people around here liked Renfroe as a platoon bat but were very disappointed that he was the everyday guy going into the year. I don't think many people were actually picking him to be better than JBJ straight up.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2022 10:34:40 GMT -5
I dunno guys, when you hit .163/.236/.261 over 428 PA's, I'm going to hold that against you an awful lot when forecasting your next season. For sure, but at the same time that is such a bad line that you have to at least partially discount it. Clearly if Bloom thought that was reflective of Bradley's current offensive ability he'd be immediately released, not pencilled in for an important role on this year's team. Some regression to the mean is anticipated; the question is how much.
(Also, to be clear my comments here are about Bloom's thinking; I, personally, would not bet on JBJ being as valuable as Renfroe this year. Though I wouldn't consider it a negligible possibility either.)
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2022 10:39:55 GMT -5
It is funny how last year people viewed Renfroe as the upgrade⦠coming off bad years! My memory is that lots of people around here liked Renfroe as a platoon bat but were very disappointed that he was the everyday guy going into the year. I don't think many people were actually picking him to be better than JBJ straight up. This was my thinking at the time! I thought the plan was for a Renfroe/Franchy platoon, with Verdugo as the other outfielder and then... well, it seemed like they needed another outfielder. So if they don't make another addition, this will be two years in a row in which they go into the season with an uncomfortable lack of depth in the outfield, for my tastes.
Of course what happened last year is that Kiké established himself as an excellent CFer, Renfroe was adequate to play every day (though I never did like him getting so many PAs against righties), and Franchy... well. So who knows what'll happen.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 24, 2022 11:06:44 GMT -5
I dunno guys, when you hit .163/.236/.261 over 428 PA's, I'm going to hold that against you an awful lot when forecasting your next season. For sure, but at the same time that is such a bad line that you have to at least partially discount it. Clearly if Bloom thought that was reflective of Bradley's current offensive ability he'd be immediately released, not pencilled in for an important role on this year's team. Some regression to the mean is anticipated; the question is how much.
(Also, to be clear my comments here are about Bloom's thinking; I, personally, would not bet on JBJ being as valuable as Renfroe this year. Though I wouldn't consider it a negligible possibility either.)
And specifically for JBJ I feel even more comfortable discounting it than I would for the average player. We've all seen his cold streaks even in otherwise acceptable offensive seasons. This is what it looks like when he never gets his hot streak to balance things out.
Also, it's worth remembering that he came into last year with wrist inflamation and also dealt with plantar fasciitis during the season. Who knows how much that may have impacted him throughout the year, but I'm sure it didn't help.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 24, 2022 11:08:53 GMT -5
For some reason the Red Sox seem to not like to platoon guys.
Gomes/Nava and Carp/Napoli were supposed to be platoons and Farrell ended up riding with whoever he felt like playing.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2022 11:14:46 GMT -5
For sure, but at the same time that is such a bad line that you have to at least partially discount it. Clearly if Bloom thought that was reflective of Bradley's current offensive ability he'd be immediately released, not pencilled in for an important role on this year's team. Some regression to the mean is anticipated; the question is how much.
(Also, to be clear my comments here are about Bloom's thinking; I, personally, would not bet on JBJ being as valuable as Renfroe this year. Though I wouldn't consider it a negligible possibility either.)
And specifically for JBJ I feel even more comfortable discounting it than I would for the average player. We've all seen his cold streaks even in otherwise acceptable offensive seasons. This is what it looks like when he never gets his hot streak to balance things out.
Also, it's worth remembering that he came into last year with wrist inflamation and also dealt with plantar fasciitis during the season. Who knows how much that may have impacted him throughout the year, but I'm sure it didn't help.
Yes, but also, I am wary of the argument "he's not in decline, he was just dealing with multiple nagging injuries." Having nagging injuries is one of the ways that players go into decline...
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 24, 2022 11:32:56 GMT -5
And specifically for JBJ I feel even more comfortable discounting it than I would for the average player. We've all seen his cold streaks even in otherwise acceptable offensive seasons. This is what it looks like when he never gets his hot streak to balance things out.
Also, it's worth remembering that he came into last year with wrist inflamation and also dealt with plantar fasciitis during the season. Who knows how much that may have impacted him throughout the year, but I'm sure it didn't help.
Yes, but also, I am wary of the argument "he's not in decline, he was just dealing with multiple nagging injuries." Having nagging injuries is one of the ways that players go into decline... Totally fair point, but as far as I know JBJ is healthy to start the year this year. Beats missing lots of spring training with your new team due to a wrist issue and having to start the year late.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 24, 2022 12:20:15 GMT -5
For some reason the Red Sox seem to not like to platoon guys. Gomes/Nava and Carp/Napoli were supposed to be platoons and Farrell ended up riding with whoever he felt like playing. Hard to overstate just how grumpy I will be if JBJ is starting against LHP in April.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 24, 2022 12:27:54 GMT -5
For some reason the Red Sox seem to not like to platoon guys. Gomes/Nava and Carp/Napoli were supposed to be platoons and Farrell ended up riding with whoever he felt like playing. Hard to overstate just how grumpy I will be if JBJ is starting against LHP in April. I get that, but some of the names tossed around (Pillar?) are not worth the roster spot. This will take more effort to upgrade.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 24, 2022 12:52:26 GMT -5
Okay, so then one of the infielders goes to DH and Arroyo starts. And then if anyone in the lineup pulls a hamstring, we're back to JBJ starting vs lefties. Gotta do better than this.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2022 12:59:13 GMT -5
Can this be translated as: 'Cora said, "Bloom, you better get me another outfielder"'?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2022 13:36:11 GMT -5
I bet they got screwed by Suzuki not wanting to go to Boston. I think Story was plan B.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Mar 24, 2022 13:40:44 GMT -5
Did they end up changing waiver claim rules in the CBA? I remember reading claiming teams would go to the end of the line with one of the proposals but I can't remember if it went through. It feels like Bloom likes to have 1-2 spots on the 40 man open to churning through DFA players. I'd assume that's where the 4th OF will come from.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2022 13:44:47 GMT -5
I bet they got screwed by Suzuki not wanting to go to Boston. I think Story was plan B. I don't know why Pham wasn't Plan C or D. For what he signed he hardly would have broken the bank.
(I also like his 12.5% career BB rate. I don't know what secret sauce analyses they're doing, but it sure feels like having a guy in the lineup who can draw walks has a compounding effect that makes the whole lineup better. Sure felt that way when Schwarber arrived.)
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2022 13:48:11 GMT -5
I bet they got screwed by Suzuki not wanting to go to Boston. I think Story was plan B. I don't know why Pham wasn't Plan C or D. For what he signed he hardly would have broken the bank.
(I also like his 12.5% career BB rate. I don't know what secret sauce analyses they're doing, but it sure feels like having a guy in the lineup who can draw walks has a compounding effect that makes the whole lineup better. Sure felt that way when Schwarber arrived.)
Pham has been primarily a LF for the last 3 years and has only played 41 innings in RF in his entire career. That's not a guy to put in RF in Fenway.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2022 13:49:06 GMT -5
I don't know why Pham wasn't Plan C or D. For what he signed he hardly would have broken the bank.
(I also like his 12.5% career BB rate. I don't know what secret sauce analyses they're doing, but it sure feels like having a guy in the lineup who can draw walks has a compounding effect that makes the whole lineup better. Sure felt that way when Schwarber arrived.)
Pham has been primarily a LF for the last 3 years and has only played 41 innings in RF in his entire career. That's not a guy to put in RF in Fenway. So put him in LF. Verdugo to right. Bradley as a defensive replacement as needed.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2022 13:51:31 GMT -5
Pham has been primarily a LF for the last 3 years and has only played 41 innings in RF in his entire career. That's not a guy to put in RF in Fenway. So put him in LF. Verdugo to right. Bradley as a defensive replacement as needed. They probably want a better RF than Verdugo as well. But that's what they will do with JDM in LF. I wonder if they could trade for a guy like Lane Thomas of the Nationals. He hits LHP well and is a decent CF/RF. That's just me scouting Fangraphs splits tool.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 24, 2022 14:16:56 GMT -5
Balt's Mancini apparently on the block. One year of control left. He could certainly play LF in Fenway. Not so much elsewhere...
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Post by greenmonster on Mar 24, 2022 14:19:52 GMT -5
Did they end up changing waiver claim rules in the CBA? I remember reading claiming teams would go to the end of the line with one of the proposals but I can't remember if it went through. It feels like Bloom likes to have 1-2 spots on the 40 man open to churning through DFA players. I'd a ssume that's where the 4th OF will come from. Yes, but where is the 3rd outfielder coming from?
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Post by Guidas on Mar 24, 2022 14:20:36 GMT -5
So we're down to Conforto Mystery Trade (everyone is rooting for Will Myers it seems) JBJ platooning with...Arroyo or Rob Refsnyder?
Laureano? Won't be available for first 37 games but after that he can play D and hit. Maybe even with a little more pop now, as added muscle only degrades about 10% after steroids are ceased, esp if the individual keeps working out .304 AVE/.380 OBP/.478 SLG vs LHP .246/.317/.443 combined
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2022 14:24:56 GMT -5
So we're down to Conforto Mystery Trade (everyone is rooting for Will Myers it seems) JBJ platooning with...Arroyo or Rob Refsnyder?
Laureano? Won't be available for first 37 games but after that he can play D and hit. Maybe even with a little more pop now, as added muscle only degrades about 10% after steroids are ceased, esp if the individual keeps working out That would have to be a significant trade. Doubtful.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 24, 2022 14:29:26 GMT -5
Laureano is a good fit. It would be nice to find someone that will stick around past this season - right now all they have is Verdugo and maybe Duran.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 24, 2022 14:30:02 GMT -5
I dunno guys, when you hit .163/.236/.261 over 428 PA's, I'm going to hold that against you an awful lot when forecasting your next season. JBJ is just a classic buy-low proposition. There's nowhere to go but up (or out).
If you buy a stock that's seen better days but is currently floundering, you can either make a bunch of money or lose a little. Past performance is not an indication of future returns.
Worst-case scenario is he struggles early and becomes a defensive replacement later and then is bought out next winter. Like many here, I cringed every time Marwin started last season and it was way too often but the season turned out okay. AC loves his veterans and the guys he's won with, so I won't be too surprised to see JBJ more often than I'd like early but maybe he turns things around.
Obviously, they need to find someone else to play RF, preferably a RH hitter. Conforto's not the answer. He's a LHH and is bad vs. LHP. Here's a dark-horse name to watch -- such a dark horse that he's not even on the SP60: Johan Mieses. Big, athletic RF who bats righty and mashes LHP, at least minor league LHP, so far. Finished 2021 in Worcester and will start 2022 there. Depending on performances and injuries in the first half, don't say "I never heard of this kid" when he shows up in Fenway on his 27th birthday (7/13/22) and says, "I'm Mr. Mieses, look at me!"
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2022 14:32:56 GMT -5
Really the ideal fit is Manuel Margot.
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