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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 24, 2022 20:51:25 GMT -5
JD in Right...yikes. JBJ starting was expected. Bloom isn't letting that money rot on the bench. Hope he can hit .210 Mind blowing that Bloom would think that Jackie Bradley is a viable option in right field. I don't understand how he thinks he improved the team adding one of the worst hitters in baseball as a starter.. Looking at the lineup I'd say one through 6 of Hernandez, Verdugo, xandy, rafi, JD, story is awesome. 7 through 9 doesn't have to be world beaters just somewhere approaching average with good defense. Bradley probably won't/can't be as bad as last year so I think there will be some regression to the mean. At the same point if there isn't then it will get ugly for Bloom and the Sox. It's hard to see much in the system right now that can slide in to the OF if JBJ doesn't straighten it out somewhat.
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Post by soxaddict on Mar 24, 2022 21:57:52 GMT -5
Mind blowing that Bloom would think that Jackie Bradley is a viable option in right field. I don't understand how he thinks he improved the team adding one of the worst hitters in baseball as a starter.. Looking at the lineup I'd say one through 6 of Hernandez, Verdugo, xandy, rafi, JD, story is awesome. 7 through 9 doesn't have to be world beaters just somewhere approaching average with good defense. Bradley probably won't/can't be as bad as last year so I think there will be some regression to the mean. At the same point if there isn't then it will get ugly for Bloom and the Sox. It's hard to see much in the system right now that can slide in to the OF if JBJ doesn't straighten it out somewhat. Totally agree. 1-6, the Sox are at the top of the food chain in the AL, IMO. vs LHP this lineup should rake. Will suffer a bit defensively if they’re forced to use JD in LF. 7-9 vs RHP is a huge weakness if they go into the season with Shaw, Vazquez and JBJ. I think Bloom has every intention of using JBJ as a regular vs RHP. Upgrading Shaw’s spot is imperative, IMO.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 24, 2022 22:14:06 GMT -5
Looking at the lineup I'd say one through 6 of Hernandez, Verdugo, xandy, rafi, JD, story is awesome. 7 through 9 doesn't have to be world beaters just somewhere approaching average with good defense. Bradley probably won't/can't be as bad as last year so I think there will be some regression to the mean. At the same point if there isn't then it will get ugly for Bloom and the Sox. It's hard to see much in the system right now that can slide in to the OF if JBJ doesn't straighten it out somewhat. Totally agree. 1-6, the Sox are at the top of the food chain in the AL, IMO. vs LHP this lineup should rake. Will suffer a bit defensively if they’re forced to use JD in LF. 7-9 vs RHP is a huge weakness if they go into the season with Shaw, Vazquez and JBJ. I think Bloom has every intention of using JBJ as a regular vs RHP. Upgrading Shaw’s spot is imperative, IMO. The dalbec/shaw platoon at first may make or break the team. Is dalbec closer to the guy who raked for a good portion of the year or is he closer to the guy who was basically unplayable for the other part of the year? If not Can shaw be at least passable? If they aren't the calls for Casas will grow loud.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 25, 2022 0:20:45 GMT -5
If the Rockies would be willing to flip Grichuk he’d be a solid fit for us in RF, I just imagine they dealt for him because they like him though
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 25, 2022 1:15:24 GMT -5
I think at this point, JBJ is your "3rd OF" given that he's likely to play RF vs RHP. Perhaps management thinks enough of Duran that they're leaving open the possibility that he wins the job later in the year (although I haven't seen it yet).
Or maybe they bring in a "starter" like Conforto, ignore the LH-heavy issue for the time being and treat JBJ as more of a 4th OF who is not a platoon, just a defensive replacement. I don't expect that to happen though, particularly with the loss of another draft pick.
Rob Refsnyder had a 139 wRC+ vs. LHP (46 ABs) in 2021, which is probably why he's a NRI for BOS right now but I'd hardly hang my hat on him.
Tyrone Taylor of MIL, mentioned earlier in this thread, could be a nice fit but he's a homegrown guy in Milwaukee who has climbed up their ladder over the last 10 years and is finally with the big club and playing well, so MIL might not be eager to trade him.
Pinder was also mentioned earlier and has decent splits for his career. Can play all over the field and only one year of control left, so he shouldn't cost a ton.
A few other possible LHP-mashing trade targets could be Austin Slater (SF), Garrett Cooper (MIA), and Lane Thomas (WAS). Cooper might be the priciest, as he appears to be a good all-around hitter and Thomas might be the cheapest as he was just acquired by WAS at last year's trade deadline in exchange for two months of Jon Lester. Slater is the best defensive OF of the three.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 25, 2022 2:47:12 GMT -5
Dalbec makes far more sense in LF with Verdugo or Bradley in RF. Let's keep in mind that he's a 3rd baseman by trade and traditionally 3rd basemen have had a much easier time transitioning to LF than RF because the ball comes off the bat at a similar angle. Also, RF at Fenway is unkind to inexperienced players. I wouldn't mind seeing Duran get a few reps at 1B either - incase there are any delays from Casas he might be a better option than Shaw who seems like a replacement-level player and would need a 40-man spot if he makes the team. He's experienced in the IF and at 6'2" he should have enough reach. Who knows, maybe he could be Erstad-light. I like the idea of Duran getting some reps at 1B. Would be an easy transition for him, IMO. Shaw has zero versatility. They need a LH 1B capable of playing OF. They’d still need another RH bat to play a corner OF spot. At this point, it’ll have to be Dalbec, Arroyo or a trade. There’s nothing left on the free agent market. ***Edit*** I completely forgot about JD. He could handle LF and that would allow Bobby to DH. Yeah, but if you have JD in left and Dalbec at DH then you are likely facing a left-handed pitcher, in which case Arroyo likely plays 1B. Given his injury last year, I'd rather just keep Dalbec at 1B in those situations. You can DH Dalbec vs RHP but his offense (92 wRC+ vs RHP last season) probably isn't good enough to keep him in the lineup for his bat alone. For the time being, I think they need to keep Dalbec at 1B vs both RHP and LHP (until Casas arrives). That leaves either JD or Arroyo in LF against LHP with the other DHing and Bradley in the OF against RHP with with JD DHing. Shaw is an emergency backup in my mind, but he would take up a 40-man spot, so I'm curious if the Red Sox will start the season without a LHH 1st baseman altogether in order to save the 40-man slot. That would likely be good news for Dalbec as he would get plenty of at-bats to prove he belongs once Casas is up - then we're back to figuring out whether it's better to have Dalbec or JD in LF rather than DH. Certainly will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 25, 2022 6:06:21 GMT -5
I agree with you guys on the first six and that is an obvious scouting report. As far as the bottom 3 goes I am not so down on them at all. Sometimes it seems like people want a borderline all star at every position to be happy and that is just not realistic unless they spend 300 million and get lucky on top of that.
Vazquez is a better than average catcher behind the plate and has at times been better than average at the plate also. I don't consider him a liability at all and would put him at a little above league average at his position.
When It comes to Dalbec one can choose between glass half empty or half full. Just looking at his OPS is dizzying, 619, 672, 780, 541, 1205, 922, 966, in his first 7 months. That is 3 terribles, 3 awesomes and 1 pretty good. Take from that what you will but it certainly beats out most rookies first 7 months in the show right. Add to that the fact as time goes on he "could" end up being an incredible sub capable of playing a corner OF spot along with 3 positions in the infield, how valuable would that be. I am going to go with the glass half full position and believe that he is going to be a very good player and those batting numbers will level out to a solid mid 800s area. Lastly, how the heck are the Sox ever going to develop their own prospects if they took the same tack as anyone who wants to be half empty and not accept the growing pains?
In regards to RF, the Sox have a great defensive player and most teams in baseball would just trot Duran out there in a platoon to see what they had and try to develop him. It isn't the best situation but if the brass really looked at it the way you guys are they would do something about it and they might still do just that. Or if it does end up being an issue they can make a trade in season or at the deadline when I am sure they are going to be buyers.
Bottom line IMO the Sox have a great lineup and with the way they plan on using the pitching staff I think that will end up being a strength also. We shall see.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 25, 2022 9:01:06 GMT -5
Totally agree. 1-6, the Sox are at the top of the food chain in the AL, IMO. vs LHP this lineup should rake. Will suffer a bit defensively if they’re forced to use JD in LF. 7-9 vs RHP is a huge weakness if they go into the season with Shaw, Vazquez and JBJ. I think Bloom has every intention of using JBJ as a regular vs RHP. Upgrading Shaw’s spot is imperative, IMO. The dalbec/shaw platoon at first may make or break the team. Is dalbec closer to the guy who raked for a good portion of the year or is he closer to the guy who was basically unplayable for the other part of the year? If not Can shaw be at least passable? If they aren't the calls for Casas will grow loud. Is there reason to think Dalbec and Shaw are platooning at first? Bobby was better against righties and lefties than Shaw last year, and I don't see keeping Dalbec on the bench like 70% of the time. Certainly not for Shaw, anyway. Dalbec needs at bats.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 25, 2022 9:21:47 GMT -5
The dalbec/shaw platoon at first may make or break the team. Is dalbec closer to the guy who raked for a good portion of the year or is he closer to the guy who was basically unplayable for the other part of the year? If not Can shaw be at least passable? If they aren't the calls for Casas will grow loud. Is there reason to think Dalbec and Shaw are platooning at first? Bobby was better against righties and lefties than Shaw last year, and I don't see keeping Dalbec on the bench like 70% of the time. Certainly not for Shaw, anyway. Dalbec needs at bats. I dont think it'll be a straight up platoon so maybe platoon was the wrong word for me to use. I think dalbec will play 60-70 percent with shaw backing him up.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2022 10:30:04 GMT -5
JD in Right...yikes. JBJ starting was expected. Bloom isn't letting that money rot on the bench. Hope he can hit .210 My guess for home games Verdugo would shift to RF, and JD to LF where he has actually been decent. Cora said he does not want Verdugo jumping from LF to RF back and forth, but I am with you …. JD in LF …..JBJ in RF and Verdugo in whatever field the other is not in.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 25, 2022 11:42:18 GMT -5
My guess for home games Verdugo would shift to RF, and JD to LF where he has actually been decent. Cora said he does not want Verdugo jumping from LF to RF back and forth, but I am with you …. JD in LF …..JBJ in RF and Verdugo in whatever field the other is not in. Against LHP, JD to LF, Verdugo to the bench.
Verdugo had a 48 wRC+ in 201 PA vs. LHP in 2021. Cora stuck with him the entire season and he proved that he couldn't do it. You can say 201 PA is still a small sample size but it's not like he was a rookie. Waiting for him to adjust to what LHP are doing to him could just dig the hole in the lineup deeper. If you're willing to wait for Verdugo to adjust to LHP, why not just wait for JBJ to get back to what he used to be?
JBJ had a 49 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2021. (Let that comparison sink in a second...) He's obviously the more valuable defender, so if someone's going to the bench vs. LHP with the current roster, it should be Verdugo, IMO.
It also underlines the need to trade for someone like Pinder, Slater, or Thomas, so neither JBJ nor Verdugo needs to play vs. LHP. Pinder probably makes the most sense from a versatility standpoint and should be fine in RF on the road, with maybe JBJ in RF in Fenway.
Overall, I think Shaw is redundant because Verdugo can be your PH vs. RHP when a LHP starts against them.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 25, 2022 12:38:58 GMT -5
Cora said he does not want Verdugo jumping from LF to RF back and forth, but I am with you …. JD in LF …..JBJ in RF and Verdugo in whatever field the other is not in. Against LHP, JD to LF, Verdugo to the bench.
Verdugo had a 48 wRC+ in 201 PA vs. LHP in 2021. Cora stuck with him the entire season and he proved that he couldn't do it. You can say 201 PA is still a small sample size but it's not like he was a rookie. Waiting for him to adjust to what LHP are doing to him could just dig the hole in the lineup deeper. If you're willing to wait for Verdugo to adjust to LHP, why not just wait for JBJ to get back to what he used to be?
... Right, it's a small samplle size. The fact that he's not a rookie doesn't make it a larger sample size so I don't get why that would be a caveat.
He had a ~112 wRC+ in 250 PAs against lefties prior to 2021. Why count the 2021 stats but not the larger sample of pre-2021 stats?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 25, 2022 13:26:53 GMT -5
Against LHP, JD to LF, Verdugo to the bench. Verdugo had a 48 wRC+ in 201 PA vs. LHP in 2021. Cora stuck with him the entire season and he proved that he couldn't do it. You can say 201 PA is still a small sample size but it's not like he was a rookie. Waiting for him to adjust to what LHP are doing to him could just dig the hole in the lineup deeper. If you're willing to wait for Verdugo to adjust to LHP, why not just wait for JBJ to get back to what he used to be?
... Right, it's a small samplle size. The fact that he's not a rookie doesn't make it a larger sample size so I don't get why that would be a caveat. He had a ~112 wRC+ in 250 PAs against lefties prior to 2021. Why count the 2021 stats but not the larger sample of pre-2021 stats?
I agree - Verdugo is a .271 career hitter versus lefties, so he has been more than capable throughout his career. (warning: I went down a bit of a statistical rabbit hole below) One interesting thing about 2021: he had a 15.2% strikeout rate against RHP and a 17.4% strikeout rate against LHP. Even for those who are good at hitting same-handedness pitchers the difference in strikeout rate is typically much greater and is often the leading indicator of an issue for those who aren't as good at that skill. So Verdugo was surprisingly good at not striking out versus lefties in 2021. His walk rate (very SSS) was lower against lefties (4.5% vs 10.5%) which is often an indicator that the player is swinging at pitchers' pitches earlier in the count, but his pitches per plate appearance were 3.83 (vs LHP) and 3.97 (vs RHP) respectively, which isn't much of a gap. The hard/med/soft and pull/cent/oppo numbers also show that he was slightly better vs RHP (within the range we would expect of any LHH). He did have a higher GB% (54.5% vs 47.1%) against lefties along with a lower HR/FB rate (5% to 12.4%), both of which may indicate a tendency to hit the ball off the end of the bat at a higher rate against LHP - both of these gaps show up in previous years, but they are less pronounced. The only extreme statistic I could find as an indicator of his uncharacteristic splits was 'LHP in away games' where he hit only .186 vs .315 in home games. In previous years he has also had a surprisingly negative split throughout his career - although this split doesn't exist for him against RHPs (with a larger sample size). Perhaps Verdugo has something weird going on in his head for road games when he faces LHPs, or perhaps he feels better against LHP with the short left-field wall at Fenway, but most likely this is just SSS silliness. If you're convinced there's an issue, there it is, but if you're not convinced, you should expect him to be slightly worse against LHPs than RHPs going forward, as is the norm for a LHB who isn't in need of a platoon.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 25, 2022 13:48:00 GMT -5
For his career his BABIPs vs. righties and lefties are almost identical, but last season it was 90 points lower against lefties. So that's a lot of it right there.
He had like no power against lefties last season too. Maybe SSS, maybe an approach thing, I dunno.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 25, 2022 14:15:43 GMT -5
To start the year lineup against righties:
Kiké Hernandez CF JD Martinez DH Xander Bogaerts SS Rafael Devers 3B Trevor Story 2B Alex Verdugo LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Christian Vazquez C Jackie Bradley Jr. RF
Against Lefties:
Kiké Hernandez CF JD Martinez LF Xander Bogaerts SS Rafael Devers 3B Trevor Story 2B Alex Verdugo RF Bobby Dalbec 1B Christian Vazquez C Christian Arroyo DH
Obviously they'll work Shaw in, rotate Arroyo into the field and guys into DH and might switch Martinez/Verdugo depending on the stadium. The top 6 could switch around in some order too, but am I crazy or those should both be great lineups and even the last three guys I'm not worried about in either case. The lack of depth is definitely scary, but maybe the thought is they can start with it like this to give JBJ/Duran opportunities and trade for someone later on if they need to. It's very likely the drop to JBJ from whoever they might trade for wouldn't cost them more than a win or so between now and July, but this way they get to gather info first.
Might be me talking myself into it, I was definitely still expecting an acquisition too, but I don't know that it's some disaster if they don't.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 25, 2022 14:31:29 GMT -5
"He's not a rookie" means a couple things to me. It means that he's not just getting his feet wet in the big leagues, so we're starting to see who he is.
Perhaps more importantly, it means that teams around the league have a book on him, now that he's had 2+ full seasons. If you play a full season and face LHP every time there's one on the mound, coming out of it with a 48 wRC+ means that you never adjusted to how LHP were pitching you.
I also don't think his glove is good enough to just throw him out there in unfavorable hitting situations (in contrast to JBJ). I think it's irresponsible to not consider platooning Verdugo if your goal is winning. If your goal is playing your favorite players (something AC can't resist sometimes), I'd probably have him in there every game too, rain or shine.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 25, 2022 20:49:26 GMT -5
To start the year lineup against righties: Kiké Hernandez CF JD Martinez DH Xander Bogaerts SS Rafael Devers 3B Trevor Story 2B Alex Verdugo LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Christian Vazquez C Jackie Bradley Jr. RF Against Lefties: Kiké Hernandez CF JD Martinez LF Xander Bogaerts SS Rafael Devers 3B Trevor Story 2B Alex Verdugo RF Bobby Dalbec 1B Christian Vazquez C Christian Arroyo DH Obviously they'll work Shaw in, rotate Arroyo into the field and guys into DH and might switch Martinez/Verdugo depending on the stadium. The top 6 could switch around in some order too, but am I crazy or those should both be great lineups and even the last three guys I'm not worried about in either case. The lack of depth is definitely scary, but maybe the thought is they can start with it like this to give JBJ/Duran opportunities and trade for someone later on if they need to. It's very likely the drop to JBJ from whoever they might trade for wouldn't cost them more than a win or so between now and July, but this way they get to gather info first. Might be me talking myself into it, I was definitely still expecting an acquisition too, but I don't know that it's some disaster if they don't. It should be pretty solid with some upside. In my mind, they did make the acquisition, just not the one we expected. If they had signed an OFer instead of Story, we probably wouldn't feel the same, but this simply shifts the Arroyo/Bradley platoon to a corner OF/DH spot - not ideal, but not horrible either. I'm not a fan of compressing the 2 main lefties into 3 spots, so I would arrange as below: Kiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez DH Alex Verdugo LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Christian Vazquez C Jackie Bradley Jr. RF Against Lefties: Kiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Alex Verdugo RF Christian Vazquez C Christian Arroyo DH I'm also leaning more and more toward Shaw not being worth the 40-man spot if they aren't going to start him against the majority of RHPs. It comes down to whether the Red Sox need that spot for someone who surprises out of camp.
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Post by carl4sox on Mar 25, 2022 20:59:36 GMT -5
The Rays just traded for another outfielder -- they have too many.
Opportunity for the Sox?
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 25, 2022 21:36:06 GMT -5
Maybe they're actually willing to go with Rob Refsnyder.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 25, 2022 22:05:34 GMT -5
Maybe they're actually willing to go with Rob Refsnyder. I think the Sox, when they face a lefty, will play JDM in LF and Verdugo in RF. Arroyo will get the ABs. They'll probably DH either Devers, Bogaerts, or Story. If it's Devers at DH, then Arroyo plays 3b. If it's Story getting a day at DH, Arroyo simply plays 2b. If X needs the day off he would DH, with Story sliding over to SS and Arroyo filling in at 2b. Either way, against a lefty, an infielder gets a day off from the field and Arroyo gets some ABs. That's the most likely scenario at this point unless the Sox finally get a RH corner bat. I guess Refsnyder can get some ABs but he's not good defensively either and I doubt he makes the cutdown to 26 players.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 25, 2022 22:52:48 GMT -5
They need to get a RHH OF who can start 130 games. That could still leave JBJ starting 50-60 games as fill-in for all three starters. I'm skeptical that he'll hit enough to deserve even that many starts, but he's here.
I also don't want to see JDM in the OF on anything more than rare occasions. His OPS as a DH last year was .945. It was .641 in LF and .462 in his 25 PAs in RF. I think those splits are more meaningful than his career splits of .790 as a LF, .940 as a RF and .888 as a DH. He'll turn 35 this year and playing the field probably takes more out of him. I mean jogging out to the OF is dangerous stuff!
I'm on the Myers bandwagon, partly because you might squeeze a decent year out of him (pro-rated B-Ref 5 WAR as recently as 2020), but also because I'm fascinated by the prospect who might come with him.
WM's AAV is only $13.8 million, way below the $22.5 million he'll get in real dollars. Fangraphs has the RS payroll at $236.3, so Myers would put them just over the second LTT of $250 million. The only LTT I care about is the third one ($270M) because that would D-Dom their first 2023 pick back 10 spots.
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Post by soxaddict on Mar 26, 2022 1:13:07 GMT -5
These are the lineups I prefer as well.
Bobby has crushed both RHP and LHP at Fenway. He seems to only struggle on the road vs RHP. Shaw should only get his starts on the road vs RHP.
Arroyo is only above league average on the road vs LHP. With the bench options available, they may as well use JBJ at Fenway regardless who's on the mound. His defense is worth more than Arroyo's bat.
Fenway lineup Kiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez DH Alex Verdugo LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Christian Vazquez C Jackie Bradley Jr. RF
Road vs RHP Kiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez DH Alex Verdugo RF Travis Shaw 1B Christian Vazquez C Jackie Bradley Jr. RF
Road vs LHP Kiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Alex Verdugo RF Christian Vazquez C Christian Arroyo DH
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Post by nuttyredsox on Mar 26, 2022 4:52:51 GMT -5
One thing we are forgotten, Cora power of persuasion, he may be able to get Xander Bogaerts to play some 3B.
Bobby Dalbec, may play there as well.
RF is the bigger question, could Jackie Bradley Jr. rebound with his returning to familiar grounds and surprise us ? Defensive wise he's capable, other wise they need to keep their eyes on the DFA market, who knows.
Let's se how this works out but looks good.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 26, 2022 9:06:32 GMT -5
These are the lineups I prefer as well. Bobby has crushed both RHP and LHP at Fenway. He seems to only struggle on the road vs RHP. Shaw should only get his starts on the road vs RHP. Arroyo is only above league average on the road vs LHP. With the bench options available, they may as well use JBJ at Fenway regardless who's on the mound. His defense is worth more than Arroyo's bat. Fenway lineupKiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez DH Alex Verdugo LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Christian Vazquez C Jackie Bradley Jr. RF Road vs RHPKiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez DH Alex Verdugo RF Travis Shaw 1B Christian Vazquez C Jackie Bradley Jr. RF Road vs LHPKiké Hernandez CF Trevor Story 2B Rafael Devers 3B Xander Bogaerts SS JD Martinez LF Bobby Dalbec 1B Alex Verdugo RF Christian Vazquez C Christian Arroyo DH If Arroyo is in the lineup and JDM is at an OF corner, it's a lot more likely Arroyo is in the infield and one of Devers, Story, or Bogaerts are getting a defensive day off and would DH. I doubt Arroyo gets much action as a DH.
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Post by carl4sox on Mar 26, 2022 9:40:24 GMT -5
I don't believe the Sox will begin the season with that outfield alignment. Either a trade for a RH RF, or signing a DFA.
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