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Post by Guidas on Jul 25, 2013 16:32:29 GMT -5
Since June 1st. .291/.343/.392 (adjusted for removal of HBP). 11 walks 27 strikeouts. Has walked twice during the month of July. No homeruns since June 18th, and 4 XBH total in July. Barely ever hits the ball hard....at least in the games I've seen. he nutted the ball twice, once to the warning track in RF, in his last start and it was tracked down both times.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 25, 2013 16:32:59 GMT -5
Since June 1st. .291/.343/.392 (adjusted for removal of HBP). 11 walks 27 strikeouts. Has walked twice during the month of July. No homeruns since June 18th, and 4 XBH total in July. Barely ever hits the ball hard....at least in the games I've seen. Why are you removing his HBP? He is willing to take those for the team, and should be given credit for that.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2013 16:43:14 GMT -5
Since June 1st. .291/.343/.392 (adjusted for removal of HBP). 11 walks 27 strikeouts. Has walked twice during the month of July. No homeruns since June 18th, and 4 XBH total in July. Barely ever hits the ball hard....at least in the games I've seen. Don't take this the wrong way, but if this is the worst you can dig up on Daniel Nava, I'm not too worried.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 25, 2013 17:30:11 GMT -5
The problem with Nava is when he hit Abritration he is going to be not worth the money that's being awarded to him. Kind of like Brian Daubach. I dont' see him in our future outfield and I would like to see what he present value is on the market.
The way the line up shakes out there a couple of improvements we can make. One is from the outfield and the other is 3b. Ben has to notice this. We have Nava/Gomes Ells and Vict. Then at 3b and ss we have Iggy and Drew. Thats a lot of non power. I dont even know how we got this far is a testiment to this team. I want to see Drew and Nava on the market and see what happens. Promote from with-in and trade for bullpen.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 25, 2013 17:39:28 GMT -5
Hold still. Maybe sign the Cuban MG, maybe trade for some bullpen depth with mid tier prospects, maybe trade for Peavy if the price comes down to mid tier prospects and eating salary.
No need for major moves. The plan coming in was put a team together that can compete this year and let your own guys develop. No need to change that. Deadline deals very rarely make an impact. Not worth giving much up for pieces to this team.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 25, 2013 17:42:23 GMT -5
Since June 1st. .291/.343/.392 (adjusted for removal of HBP). 11 walks 27 strikeouts. Has walked twice during the month of July. No homeruns since June 18th, and 4 XBH total in July. Barely ever hits the ball hard....at least in the games I've seen. Don't take this the wrong way, but if this is the worst you can dig up on Daniel Nava, I'm not too worried. Yea, I'm a Nava skeptic and all this does is make me feel BETTER about him so I'm not sure the issue.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 25, 2013 18:19:29 GMT -5
The problem with Nava is when he hit Abritration he is going to be not worth the money that's being awarded to him. Yeah because like 2 or 3 million is really going to hurt the Sox badly. I absolutely see your point.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 25, 2013 18:24:29 GMT -5
The problem with Nava is when he hit Abritration he is going to be not worth the money that's being awarded to him. Yeah because like 2 or 3 million is really going to hurt the Sox badly. I absolutely see your point. [/qu Are you kidding me they do that all the time.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 9:48:29 GMT -5
Some posters will do anything to defend this guy. He can't hit. At least not enough to play a corner OF position on a regular basis. Pitchers have adjusted to him and he's stopped hitting and stopped walking. This shouldn't be a surprise because this is exactly what happened in both 2010, and 2012.
HBPs are removed because they are not indicative of a long-term baseball skill or value. They are treated the same way, a high BABIP or IBBs are.
You make it sound like I went through his trash or did something untoward. I looked it up and posted the information. You posted two articles that analyzed through video 26 plate appearances of Jose Iglesias. I guess those authors "dug" that up too.
The line I posted is who he's been for a long stretch of time and indicative of his talent, great background story or not.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 26, 2013 10:01:53 GMT -5
I mean, the stats you posted to back up your claim that he can't hit really aren't bad. Also, why are the last two months more indicative than the year before them? He's been pretty close to the same hitter this year to what he was last year, and that hitter isn't bad at all. Particularly against RHP, who he has a career .282/.383/.428 line against.
Also, HBP count. Some players get hit by more pitches than others. Craig Biggio got hit by 34 pitches in 1997, bringing his OBP from .387 to .415. To take them out of a players batting line when trying to prove that they aren't good is a little manipulative. Nava's earned those 10-15 points of OBP that he gets from letting the ball thwack him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 26, 2013 11:41:45 GMT -5
HBPs are removed because they are not indicative of a long-term baseball skill or value. They are treated the same way, a high BABIP or IBBs are. HBPs are absolutely a repeatable skill, as are high/low BABIPs (for hitters, mostly) and IBBs. This is common knowledge.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 26, 2013 12:10:15 GMT -5
A .380 OBP against RHP's is extremely valuable. No one is expecting him to slug a ton. He doesn't play against LHP's unless Victorino is out (or Ellsbury), and he's usually a #2 or #6 hitter. I wouldn't have an issue scaling back his playing time a bit so that Carp and Snyder get some outfield starts, but the issue is that those two, along with Gomes, can't play right field at Fenway. Nava isn't a great defender, but he's easily our third-best outfield glove.
Moonstone, are you advocating removing him as the starting left fielder against RHP's? Do you think that's an area to focus a trade on? To me, pitching is what we need, and the outfield hasn't been a concern as all (third best outfield WAR). If Nava truly becomes a hindrance, guys like Carp, Gomes, and Bradley can step in, although I value Nava's approach at the plate so much that I'd likely stick with him. We knew he wouldn't keep up his April/May pace all year, but the guy is still valuable in the lineup, and he still has a higher wOBA than Pedroia and Ellsbury.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 15:13:54 GMT -5
HBPs are removed because they are not indicative of a long-term baseball skill or value. They are treated the same way, a high BABIP or IBBs are. HBPs are absolutely a repeatable skill, as are high/low BABIPs (for hitters, mostly) and IBBs. This is common knowledge. Good then I will stand in the batters box and wait to be hit by pitches and stand there while the pitcher throws four balls 10 feet outside. I am sure I can get someone to pay me 500k to do that. It takes zero baseball skill to be hit by a pitch. You could do it and I could too. That may not be common knowledge but it is common sense.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 15:31:52 GMT -5
A .380 OBP against RHP's is extremely valuable. No one is expecting him to slug a ton. He doesn't play against LHP's unless Victorino is out (or Ellsbury), and he's usually a #2 or #6 hitter. I wouldn't have an issue scaling back his playing time a bit so that Carp and Snyder get some outfield starts, but the issue is that those two, along with Gomes, can't play right field at Fenway. Nava isn't a great defender, but he's easily our third-best outfield glove. Moonstone, are you advocating removing him as the starting left fielder against RHP's? Do you think that's an area to focus a trade on? To me, pitching is what we need, and the outfield hasn't been a concern as all (third best outfield WAR). If Nava truly becomes a hindrance, guys like Carp, Gomes, and Bradley can step in, although I value Nava's approach at the plate so much that I'd likely stick with him. We knew he wouldn't keep up his April/May pace all year, but the guy is still valuable in the lineup, and he still has a higher wOBA than Pedroia and Ellsbury. A .380 OBP against righties is extremely valuable. But Daniel Nava is incapable of doing that going forward, IMO. Not only has he not slugged a ton over the past nearly two months he's barely slugged at all. He hasn't just fallen off a little from his April and May performance, he's not even a replacement level player. What is clear is that this team doesn't have the lineup to cary a corner OF who doesn't walk or hit for power. You mentioned some possible solutions and I would advocate for all three. Maybe they should be asking about Alex Rios as opposed to Jake Peavy. For right now, they could start playing Carp more, and if Nava doesn't start hitting, make Brentz and/or JBJ part of the mix when rosters expand. At the very least, Nava's struggles illustrate that the team needs to sign an OF for next year and should be in on either Choo or Ellsbury. Some were ready to pencil him in at either 1B or LF at least against righties next year. There's no way you can do that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 26, 2013 16:45:54 GMT -5
HBPs are absolutely a repeatable skill, as are high/low BABIPs (for hitters, mostly) and IBBs. This is common knowledge. Good then I will stand in the batters box and wait to be hit by pitches and stand there while the pitcher throws four balls 10 feet outside. I am sure I can get someone to pay me 500k to do that. It takes zero baseball skill to be hit by a pitch. You could do it and I could too. That may not be common knowledge but it is common sense. Dustin Pedroia has been hit by a pitch 32 times in his entire career. Craig Biggio was hit by a pitch 34 times in 1997, and led the league in HBPs five times during his career. Call it a "skill" or an "attribute" or whatever you want, but the point is, it's something that some players do better than other players, predictably. More to the point: Not only has he not slugged a ton over the past nearly two months he's barely slugged at all. He hasn't just fallen off a little from his April and May performance, he's not even a replacement level player. What is clear is that this team doesn't have the lineup to cary a corner OF who doesn't walk or hit for power. Really? He's .286/.363/.392 since May 23rd. The average MLB left fielder is hitting .258/.322/.416 (according to BR; it's .253/.321/.409 according to Fangraphs). Did Nava run over your dog or what? He's a solid if unspectacular player. I don't get why you're so down on him.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 26, 2013 17:28:53 GMT -5
Moon, I am with you in wanting them to be in on Choo or Jacoby next year to put with Victorino and Bradley. I'd prefer Nava were a backup, but its not something at needs to be done this year and his ability to hit is a lot greater then you're giving credit for.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 26, 2013 17:30:09 GMT -5
By the way, what's Carp need to do to be given regular or semi regular ABs? Isn't there a chance this guy could be a full time 1b for this team next season?
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Post by okin15 on Jul 26, 2013 17:35:00 GMT -5
Agree w FTHW
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 26, 2013 17:37:55 GMT -5
A .380 OBP against righties is extremely valuable. But Daniel Nava is incapable of doing that going forward, IMO. Not only has he not slugged a ton over the past nearly two months he's barely slugged at all. He hasn't just fallen off a little from his April and May performance, he's not even a replacement level player. What is clear is that this team doesn't have the lineup to cary a corner OF who doesn't walk or hit for power. You mentioned some possible solutions and I would advocate for all three. Maybe they should be asking about Alex Rios as opposed to Jake Peavy. For right now, they could start playing Carp more, and if Nava doesn't start hitting, make Brentz and/or JBJ part of the mix when rosters expand. At the very least, Nava's struggles illustrate that the team needs to sign an OF for next year and should be in on either Choo or Ellsbury. Some were ready to pencil him in at either 1B or LF at least against righties next year. There's no way you can do that. I completely agree with you that the Red Sox should either sign Ellsbury or Choo (or make a trade for a top OF/1B) for 2014. This leaves the team with 2 spots to fill with Nava, Bradley, Carp, Gomes, Kalish, Hassan, Middlebrooks and Brentz. I feel good about this regardless of who wins the competition. Having 3 spots to fill with this mish-mash concerns me. Unfortunately I disagree with everything else you mentioned. Whether or not being hit by a pitch is a 'skill' is moot to the conversation of the value of the player. It is a repeatable occurrence (over a large sample) and it adds value which leads to wins. Also, I don't see a huge market for a 30 years old OF with below average defense who has already been passed through waivers multiple times. If 2014 comes around and he loses out of a starting job then I'm all for trading him IF he can provide a real prospect in return. In the meantime...are you really that certain that Carp or Bradley are certain full-time upgrades? I think we may have been spoiled by the Manny, Yaz, Rice and Williams'.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 26, 2013 17:42:51 GMT -5
You forgot Bay and Crawford
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Post by jmei on Jul 26, 2013 19:53:20 GMT -5
A .380 OBP against righties is extremely valuable. But Daniel Nava is incapable of doing that going forward, IMO. Not only has he not slugged a ton over the past nearly two months he's barely slugged at all. He hasn't just fallen off a little from his April and May performance, he's not even a replacement level player. What is clear is that this team doesn't have the lineup to cary a corner OF who doesn't walk or hit for power. I don't even know how to respond to this. There is being stubborn, but this is really something else...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2013 9:43:45 GMT -5
I mean, the stats you posted to back up your claim that he can't hit really aren't bad. Also, why are the last two months more indicative than the year before them? He's been pretty close to the same hitter this year to what he was last year, and that hitter isn't bad at all. Particularly against RHP, who he has a career .282/.383/.428 line against. Also, HBP count. Some players get hit by more pitches than others. Craig Biggio got hit by 34 pitches in 1997, bringing his OBP from .387 to .415. To take them out of a players batting line when trying to prove that they aren't good is a little manipulative. Nava's earned those 10-15 points of OBP that he gets from letting the ball thwack him. I hate to beat a dead horse and I promise this will be my last post on the subject. First off according to Keith Woolner, formerly of BP, there is no correlation between pitches seen per plate appearances and HBP rates, see link below. Wade Boggs didn't have high HBP rates and neither did Ted Williams. What can increase HBP rates is standing closer to the plate, which takes no baseball skill. Since they are not indicative of baseball skill it is proper to adjust when analyzing the players ability. Besides, even if you wanted to argue that were repeatable and thus should be included, Daniel Nava doesn't stand particularly close to the plate. By the way OBP as reported is already manipulated as it does not include each and every time the player comes to the plate. The stats I posted ARE bad for a corner OF and they are trending worse. As I mentioned he has only walked twice during July and hasn't hit a home run since June 18th. Nava's fans like to point to his supposed track record but really he doesn't have one. In each of his three major league seasons, he has started out well, and fallen off the map once pitchers adjusted to him. He just hasn't had enough ABs to completely cancel out his hot start. That is why the last two months are important. It's evidence that pitchers are once again adjusting to him. Watching the games shows us that Nava really doesn't have the bat speed to consistently square up good velocity unless he starts his swing early. Now that pitchers are pitching him differently, with more breaking balls early, he's mostly hitting weak ground balls in play. Both the walks and the power have completely dissipated from his game. Three seasons of 250 plate appearances do not equate to one season of 750 PAs. Nava was benched last night in favor of Mike Carp. Given that Carp had three hits including a double, I don't see how they can take him out of the lineup versus lefties. Unless Carp starts to falter, the Daniel Nava era in Boston might very well be over and I say good riddance. His back story has caused some to overrate him, and use extraordinary means to defend him. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1206
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Post by jimoh on Jul 28, 2013 10:12:55 GMT -5
... Nava's fans like to point to his supposed track record but really he doesn't have one. In each of his three major league seasons, he has started out well, and fallen off the map once pitchers adjusted to him. He just hasn't had enough ABs to completely cancel out his hot start. That is why the last two months are important. It's evidence that pitchers are once again adjusting to him. ... So you think major league pitchers "adjusted to him" in those two previous seasons, then at the end of the year every major league team completely lost all of its notes on Nava and forgot how to pitch to him, accounting for his success earlier this year, but now they have figured him out again? You think that's a credible explanation?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 28, 2013 10:13:20 GMT -5
I was out of the country for a while and missed a lot of baseball but I'm fairly confident I read somewhere on this board that Nava looked like he injured himself a few weeks back. Is this true? As far as "pitchers adjusting", last year Nava seemed to just be playing through an injury and that could've impacted his numbers more than any league wide adjustment. It seems too simple to suggest he comes out hot and then pitchers simply adjust and counter it and that explains everything. It's not like he was doing anything to start this year that he wasn't doing in the past, why would pitchers need that new sample size to get a game plan to attack him? I don't understand that. I don't see how they could've collectively adjusted last year, forgot about those adjustments to start this year, then collectively switched back over this recent sample size (which isn't even that bad). The "league wide adjustments" angle seems like an easy narrative, but couldn't it just be injuries and durability issues? It seems like every year Jed Lowrie has similar great starts followed by coming back to earth and those weren't due to any real adjustments, just his inability to stay healthy over a full season...maybe Nava's just a guy who breaks down over a full season.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 28, 2013 10:18:51 GMT -5
Maybe Nava has hit the wall or needs some extra time in the cage to tighten up some things. But the good news is that Carp is currently seeing the ball well and Farrell needs to take advantage of it by playing Carp more.
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