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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 21:13:53 GMT -5
Daniel Nava has been a very solid contributor to the team so far this year, coming up with a lot of clutch hits. He has been showing a lot of power so far, and he has been very impressive in regards to plate discipline. He has always had very good plate discipline in his career, on average walking every 8.1 plate appearances. He has been hitting from both sides of the plate as well.
He has already won an everyday job, at least against right handed pitching, and has done well in it. To me, Nava seems like a Raul Ibanez kind of player. Until he was about 30, (Nava's current age) Ibanez was a Four-A/ 4th outfielder. When he started playing every day and stayed healthy, Ibanez took off and was a good power hitter for years. Although it is a bit optimistic, I hope that the case is similar with Nava. Although he is not a very large player, through his first 14 games, Nava has hit 4 home runs and drawn 8 walks. It is very early, but I really hope that Nava turns out to be a late-bloomer power-hitter, hitting around 20 home runs year after year.
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Post by knuckledown on Apr 25, 2013 7:55:34 GMT -5
Daniel Nava has been a very solid contributor to the team so far this year, coming up with a lot of clutch hits. He has been showing a lot of power so far, and he has been very impressive in regards to plate discipline. He has always had very good plate discipline in his career, on average walking every 8.1 plate appearances. He has been hitting from both sides of the plate as well. He has already won an everyday job, at least against right handed pitching, and has done well in it. To me, Nava seems like a Raul Ibanez kind of player. Until he was about 30, (Nava's current age) Ibanez was a Four-A/ 4th outfielder. When he started playing every day and stayed healthy, Ibanez took off and was a good power hitter for years. Although it is a bit optimistic, I hope that the case is similar with Nava. Although he is not a very large player, through his first 14 games, Nava has hit 4 home runs and drawn 8 walks. It is very early, but I really hope that Nava turns out to be a late-bloomer power-hitter, hitting around 20 home runs year after year. Seconded, though I know there those who will disagree, and I expect this will be a great debate. Nava has been exceeding SP staff's roster projections for a long time and I don't understand why folks are so pessimistic about him. For example, he's listed as the DH is Pawtucket on the 2014 projection. That just seems silly, given his successes this April, though if he really struggles for the remaining fives months of the season, it's a possibility. Fancygraphs has his WAR so far at 0.6 (Ells leads the team with 0.9, Nava is 5th on the team) which also puts his in a 13 way tie for 65th place in the league, clearly an effect of success in small sample size. Oversimplified, if the best 330 players are "everyday", Nava would be at the 80% percentile (with 13 other guys). I think that makes a reasonably compelling case.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 25, 2013 8:49:50 GMT -5
Talk to me in August. Yes, people may underestimate him, but some people are anointing him something he's never done before. You can say its because of injury or lack of a chance but we don't know if he can perform over the course of a full season. What we do know is he's worked hard and continuously improved different aspects of his game. That's great. At worst he's a solid 4th outfielder now backup first-baseman who can fill in capably for an extended period of time.
It's probably not fair to point to the projected 2014 rosters and say a placement is silly 3 weeks into the year. You really think they re-evaluate that daily or weekly? It was a perfectly logical projection 3 weeks ago., which means it still is today.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2013 12:14:53 GMT -5
I have stated my opinions on Daniel Nava before and there is no need to rehash them here other than to say that they haven't changed. Like RJP I would caution all fans to read too much into performance over a short time period. I will also say that it is highly unusual for a major league caliber player to accrue most of his value after the age of 30 as Ibanez did.
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Post by larrycook on Apr 25, 2013 12:18:11 GMT -5
Talk to me in August. Yes, people may underestimate him, but some people are anointing him something he's never done before. You can say its because of injury or lack of a chance but we don't know if he can perform over the course of a full season. What we do know is he's worked hard and continuously improved different aspects of his game. That's great. At worst he's a solid 4th outfielder now backup first-baseman who can fill in capably for an extended period of time. It's probably not fair to point to the projected 2014 rosters and say a placement is silly 3 weeks into the year. You really think they re-evaluate that daily or weekly? It was a perfectly logical projection 3 weeks ago., which means it still is today. What kind of line does he need to have by August to cause you to reconsider your evaluation of him?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 25, 2013 12:51:52 GMT -5
The one thing about Nava - he usually gets off to good starts and then the injuries hit and his numbers plummet. I'd be interested to see what he can do if he stays healthy.
I know one thing - I love his patient approach at the plate, and the power, if the increase is for real - makes him more valuable (along with improved defense) regardless if he hits .250 like he has in the past or closer to .300 which isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Take a good to great (if the BA mostly holds up) OBP, perhaps a better SA, and better defense, and Nava certainly has value - more than I would have anticipated.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 25, 2013 12:59:16 GMT -5
No one can deny that he was severely hampered by injury last season, mainly by that painful cyst right on his wrist. I think Nava is a solid defensive LF with the ability to fill in just fine in RF or at 1B. Offensively, he's probably a .275, .360-.380 OBP guy. Remember, this guy posted OBP's above .350 in both of his previous seasons when his average was in the low .240's.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 25, 2013 13:33:00 GMT -5
What kind of line does he need to have by August to cause you to reconsider your evaluation of him? It's really not about his line and I don't have a negative evaluation of him. It's about his performing at a good level over a full season. People tend to get carried away. He has 165 MLB games under his belt: a 21% K rate and a .253/.361/.402 line. I'm actually fairly ok with that. Do I want him (with that line) penciled in as a starting outfielder long term? At this point, no. If he has a strong year all season, then I'm more interested in how he looks, his consistency and quality of ABs than I am projecting a final line that I'd be "happy with". I want prolonged consistency - yes he can go through a slump like every hitter does, but how severe is it and how long does it last?. No one expects the current line to be sustained. He's not going to Slug .582 and he doesn't have to. Saying you're not sold on Nava as a starting player long-term isn't a knock on him. It's just a fact he doesn't have any real track record to be comfortable with and his "pedigree" isn't top not. It just is what it is. I hope he shows that consistency. Having a guy like him, making the peanuts he'll make as a solid contributor for a couple years would be great.
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Post by knuckledown on Apr 25, 2013 14:17:33 GMT -5
Talk to me in August. Yes, people may underestimate him, but some people are anointing him something he's never done before. You can say its because of injury or lack of a chance but we don't know if he can perform over the course of a full season. What we do know is he's worked hard and continuously improved different aspects of his game. That's great. At worst he's a solid 4th outfielder now backup first-baseman who can fill in capably for an extended period of time. It's probably not fair to point to the projected 2014 rosters and say a placement is silly 3 weeks into the year. You really think they re-evaluate that daily or weekly? It was a perfectly logical projection 3 weeks ago., which means it still is today. I disagreed with it being a logical projection 3 weeks ago.
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Post by knuckledown on Apr 25, 2013 14:24:42 GMT -5
What kind of line does he need to have by August to cause you to reconsider your evaluation of him? It's really not about his line and I don't have a negative evaluation of him. It's about his performing at a good level over a full season. People tend to get carried away. He has 165 MLB games under his belt: a 21% K rate and a .253/.361/.402 line. I'm actually fairly ok with that. Do I want him (with that line) penciled in as a starting outfielder long term? At this point, no. If he has a strong year all season, then I'm more interested in how he looks, his consistency and quality of ABs than I am projecting a final line that I'd be "happy with". I want prolonged consistency - yes he can go through a slump like every hitter does, but how severe is it and how long does it last?. No one expects the current line to be sustained. He's not going to Slug .582 and he doesn't have to. Saying you're not sold on Nava as a starting player long-term isn't a knock on him. It's just a fact he doesn't have any real track record to be comfortable with and his "pedigree" isn't top not. It just is what it is. I hope he shows that consistency. Having a guy like him, making the peanuts he'll make as a solid contributor for a couple years would be great. While your projection is more pessimistic than I guess mine would be, I don't disagree with your argument about "sustained consistency." And I think your best case scenario is what most of us want from Nava. The disagreement seems to be if that is deserving of his placement between 3rd or 4th/5th OF. Nava is going to have to suck for me to be OK with him being back in Pawtucket. Let's hope he makes it easy to keep him up.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 25, 2013 15:13:51 GMT -5
I don't believe anyone is saying they want Nava back in Pawtucket at this point? Yes, we disagree on the classification between a starting Outfielder and a 4th/5th. The difference being, you're ready to hand him the keys for the next couple years as a starting outfielder and I'm not sure what he is over a full season.
I'd love for you to share my projection with me (joking), because I haven't made one and don't have one. What is your projection for Nava this year?
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Post by knuckledown on Apr 25, 2013 21:17:15 GMT -5
ZiPS(updated) says in 440PA: .259/.351/.418/.769, 12HR and .8 WAR, which seems realizable to me, though it seems like he's going to get more like 550PA's and I think the HR number is low. If he got 550 PAs at the pace he's on now (17PA:1HR) he'd have 32 home runs which I think we can agree ain't gonna happen. Splitting the difference would be 21 HRs, which I will buy. His defense seems to be improving all the time, so the -1.3 in the WAR calculation seems very pessimistic. I'll put him at 3.25 WAR for 2013.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2013 16:44:05 GMT -5
ZiPS(updated) says in 440PA: .259/.351/.418/.769, 12HR and .8 WAR, which seems realizable to me, though it seems like he's going to get more like 550PA's and I think the HR number is low. If he got 550 PAs at the pace he's on now (17PA:1HR) he'd have 32 home runs which I think we can agree ain't gonna happen. Splitting the difference would be 21 HRs, which I will buy. His defense seems to be improving all the time, so the -1.3 in the WAR calculation seems very pessimistic. I'll put him at 3.25 WAR for 2013. So if he ends .259/.351/.769, from where he is today what's that make him a sub .250 hitter the rest of the way? That's not something I'd be happy with.
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Post by jchang on Jun 5, 2013 8:11:48 GMT -5
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Post by knuckledown on Jun 5, 2013 8:52:30 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 8:55:36 GMT -5
I hope he makes the team. It is a like a version of Rudy, except that Nava is actually a good player.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 5, 2013 9:01:34 GMT -5
ZiPS(updated) says in 440PA: .259/.351/.418/.769, 12HR and .8 WAR, which seems realizable to me, though it seems like he's going to get more like 550PA's and I think the HR number is low. If he got 550 PAs at the pace he's on now (17PA:1HR) he'd have 32 home runs which I think we can agree ain't gonna happen. Splitting the difference would be 21 HRs, which I will buy. His defense seems to be improving all the time, so the -1.3 in the WAR calculation seems very pessimistic. I'll put him at 3.25 WAR for 2013. So if he ends .259/.351/.769, from where he is today what's that make him a sub .250 hitter the rest of the way? That's not something I'd be happy with. Weighted averages say that as Nava accumulates superior performance, the probability continuously increases that he is not going back to the mean -- not this year. The more cumulative distance he puts between him and the mean, the more difficult it becomes to regress all the way back. It is virtually certain at this point that Nava is going to have a significant jump in performance this year relative to his previous ML experience. How significant is the question. Dwight Evans. He is the exception that proves the rule, but exceptions don't just prove the rule -- they prove that other exceptions are possible.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 5, 2013 9:03:53 GMT -5
As a more complete discussion than just OBP, Nava is currently 26th (6th best OF in the majors) in wRC+ (140% of league average). FYI, Napoli is the next Red Sox on the list at 124% of league average. I think you're missing Pedroia: Iglesias 180 (nq) Papi 169 (nq) Carp 155 (nq) Nava 140 Pedroia 132 Napoli 124 Saltalamacchia 118 (nq)
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 5, 2013 10:02:30 GMT -5
So if he ends .259/.351/.769, from where he is today what's that make him a sub .250 hitter the rest of the way? That's not something I'd be happy with. Weighted averages say that as Nava accumulates superior performance, the probability continuously increases that he is not going back to the mean -- not this year. The more cumulative distance he puts between him and the mean, the more difficult it becomes to regress all the way back. It is virtually certain at this point that Nava is going to have a significant jump in performance this year relative to his previous ML experience. How significant is the question. Dwight Evans. He is the exception that proves the rule, but exceptions don't just prove the rule -- they prove that other exceptions are possible. Agree with you that it's looking increasing likely that Nava is better than we thought, though back in April the doubt was totally reasonable While Evans' offense took a huge step forward at 29, I don't think he's a really great comp for Nava. Evans was considered a top prospect and tore through the minors, reaching the bigs at age 20. Also, he was still a good player in his 20's - his career line through age 28 (before his 1981 breakout) was .262/.344/.448. Well short of the .281/.388/.498 he put up from 1981-89, but a far cry from Nava, who spent those years getting cut from Santa Clara, playing indy ball, slowly rising through the minors, and getting DFA'd. Evans was basically a very good third outfielder who became a superstar at an age where that usually doesn't happen. A better equivalent for Evans would be if Nick Markakis played at a Hall of Fame level for the next decade.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 5, 2013 11:45:41 GMT -5
Melvin Mora became a star after the age of 30, as I recall.
Nava might have developed better last year if he had not been hurt. He started out somewhat like this year, but this year he hasn't regressed. This is more typical of his career, steadily getting better. If this trajectory continues he will be an All-Star, but probably not this year.
It's not as if he gets a huge number of lucky hits. His patience at the plate, and OBP show he is a disciplined hitter with good pitch recognition. That isn't something that fades.
The Sox have had some unlucky times with some very good prospects, so it is nice to see some luck with someone who wasn't a big name prospect.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 5, 2013 11:49:17 GMT -5
Evans was a 'roid user too?
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Post by knuckledown on Jun 5, 2013 12:02:44 GMT -5
As a more complete discussion than just OBP, Nava is currently 26th (6th best OF in the majors) in wRC+ (140% of league average). FYI, Napoli is the next Red Sox on the list at 124% of league average. I think you're missing Pedroia: Iglesias 180 (nq) Papi 169 (nq) Carp 155 (nq) Nava 140 Pedroia 132 Napoli 124 Saltalamacchia 118 (nq) You are right, I missed Pedroia. Look ma! Going out on a limb: Daniel Nava is the best outfield bat currently on the Red Sox.
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Post by jchang on Jun 5, 2013 12:30:08 GMT -5
not just best on the Red Sox, but #9 for outfielders in all of MLB. Nava is not on the All Start ballot, so if people would please write-in for him
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 5, 2013 14:17:27 GMT -5
Best $1 we've ever spent.
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Post by onbase on Jun 6, 2013 13:56:14 GMT -5
not just best on the Red Sox, but #9 for outfielders in all of MLB. Nava is not on the All Start ballot, so if people would please write-in for him 7th by wOBA this morning, 3rd by OBP. (AL, not majors) I used my 30 votes on him last week.
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