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Post by James Dunne on Jul 28, 2013 10:27:53 GMT -5
We seem to be working really hard to find explanations as to why a career .261/.360/.398 hitter is hitting .279/.353/.344 this month.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Jul 28, 2013 10:48:11 GMT -5
I dropped him as my 5th of on my fantasy league for Rasmus. I like Nava as a 5th OF or Hassan.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 28, 2013 11:02:11 GMT -5
Nava is what he is, which is a nice 4th OFer who either can handle a full season, can't play well when dinged up or just gets exposed over long stretches. However, he's great at being a 4th OF. Only weakness is he can't play CF. he's so good that he even looks like a good starter at times. He's stepped up admirably when JBjr couldn't hack it and Gomes couldn't hit lefties.
Personally, I want him back in a backup role and I want Carp starting as much as possible. The lineup needs a spark and he's earned he right to get regular ABs. Long run it'd be real nice to see if he can be productive while playing everyday. Between 1b and LF, I don't see why they can't get him 5 days a week.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2013 11:17:29 GMT -5
We seem to be working really hard to find explanations as to why a career .261/.360/.398 hitter is hitting .279/.353/.344 this month. I think it's more that he's hitting .217/.321/.239 since July 7. .278/.330/.320 since June 19. There's something to what moonstone is saying. He's walked 4 times in his last 106 plate appearances, 3.8% (his obp is boosted by 4 hbp in that time, and although I don't want to restart that "is getting hit by pitches a repeatable skill" argument again, because frankly it wasn't interesting at all, I think we can at least all agree that it's at least not nearly as important or repeatable a skill as plate approach/drawing walks are in terms of getting on base). Compare that with 34 walks in his first 274 plate appearances (12.4%) and something's clearly changed. He's also only got 4 XBH in those last 106 PA's, all doubles, compared to 21 XBH, 10 of those HR, in his first 274. ISOP dropped from .181 to .042. Seriously, go look at his game log, both his walks and power just suddenly fell off a cliff on June 19. I tried searching ESPNBoston's blog for anything that may have happened to Nava around then (because I'm a corporate shill - what do you want from me?), but didn't find anything. He started two games of a doubleheader on the 18th, went deep in the second game, and just hasn't hit for power or walked since.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2013 12:08:02 GMT -5
HBP rates are probably related to how willing a player is to get hit by a pitch. That might not be a skill, but it is repeatable and should be counted in OBP.
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 28, 2013 12:17:06 GMT -5
We seem to be working really hard to find explanations as to why a career .261/.360/.398 hitter is hitting .279/.353/.344 this month. I think it's more that he's hitting .217/.321/.239 since July 7. .278/.330/.320 since June 19. There's something to what moonstone is saying. He's walked 4 times in his last 106 plate appearances, 3.8% (his obp is boosted by 4 hbp in that time, and although I don't want to restart that "is getting hit by pitches a repeatable skill" argument again, because frankly it wasn't interesting at all, I think we can at least all agree that it's at least not nearly as important or repeatable a skill as plate approach/drawing walks are in terms of getting on base). Compare that with 34 walks in his first 274 plate appearances (12.4%) and something's clearly changed. He's also only got 4 XBH in those last 106 PA's, all doubles, compared to 21 XBH, 10 of those HR, in his first 274. ISOP dropped from .181 to .042. Seriously, go look at his game log, both his walks and power just suddenly fell off a cliff on June 19. I tried searching ESPNBoston's blog for anything that may have happened to Nava around then (because I'm a corporate shill - what do you want from me?), but didn't find anything. He started two games of a doubleheader on the 18th, went deep in the second game, and just hasn't hit for power or walked since. Was Nava hurt in the June 20th article I believe about the June 19th game or early the 20th? Hit by pitch and then the slip rounding third? Might be more to it than we know. bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2013/07/red_sox_yankees_scoreless_earlyRed Sox, Yankees scoreless early Saturday, July 20, 2013 "Through three innings, the Red Sox and New York Yankees have each had a scoring opportunity but neither was able to capitalize on it as the game remains scoreless. In the bottom of the first inning, Daniel Nava reached when he was hit by a Hiroki Kuroda pitch and advanced to second when Dustin Pedroia grounded out. David Ortiz then lined a single to left field, but Vernon Wells threw home to Yankees catcher Chris Stewart, who tagged out Nava in a play that wasn't very close in part due to the fact that the Red Sox right fielder slipped while rounding third."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2013 15:35:06 GMT -5
A .380 OBP against righties is extremely valuable. But Daniel Nava is incapable of doing that going forward, IMO. Not only has he not slugged a ton over the past nearly two months he's barely slugged at all. He hasn't just fallen off a little from his April and May performance, he's not even a replacement level player. What is clear is that this team doesn't have the lineup to cary a corner OF who doesn't walk or hit for power. I don't even know how to respond to this. There is being stubborn, but this is really something else... Jmei I think we need to face facts. Nava could not hit a ball hard for the rest of his life and your opinion on him will not change. Thank you CH for your, as usual, well written analysis. P.S. As a personal policy I do not read or respond to PMs. I haven't found any value in doing so.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 28, 2013 18:18:08 GMT -5
Jmei I think we need to face facts. Nava could not hit a ball hard for the rest of his life and your opinion on him will not change. Really? Because you're the one who seems to be clinging to tiny samples of data to confirm your pre-existing biases about Nava.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 28, 2013 18:47:36 GMT -5
I don't even know how to respond to this. There is being stubborn, but this is really something else... Jmei I think we need to face facts. Nava could not hit a ball hard for the rest of his life and your opinion on him will not change. Thank you CH for your, as usual, well written analysis. P.S. As a personal policy I do not read or respond to PMs. I haven't found any value in doing so. Your idea of "facing facts" is ignoring all the evidence that is contrary to your opinion. Jmei has shown himself to be one of the more level-headed, data driven posters on the board. I have no doubt he would reassess his position if the stats called for it. The issue here is that the data and facts that you brought to the table do not prove the point you are trying to make. We know who Daniel Nava is. No matter how you want to slice-and-dice his stats and draw arbitrary end points, it doesn't change the fact that he has 885 plate appearances and is 30 years old. You're trying to create a narrative out of a small sample size downturn in production. That is a mistake that is often made, but it is not the appropriate way to analyze statistics. In the absence of a known event, taking the larger sample size is always preferable to looking at the most recent data or some other random subset of the data. Over his 885 plate appearances, Nava is a .261/.360/.398 hitter. That is above average for a left fielder. Is it great? Certainly not. Should we look to upgrade that spot? Given his defensive shortcomings, I think we should. But you are simply overstating the liability of having Nava in the lineup against righties. Also, in regards the whether you should count HBP: you should! It has nothing to do with whether it is a skill or talent or whatever you want to call it. The number of HBP a batter is going to take can be predicted by the number of HBP they have taken in the past. It is part of the overall package a hitter brings to the table, not just some random event that is outside of the batters control. Perhaps it is because they stand closer to the plate. Maybe it is because pitchers go in on him more to exploit a weakness. Or perhaps it is because he has a tendency to lean in to breaking balls. Whatever the case is, that is part of who the hitter is and it can be predicted to some extent by passed performance. P.S. Whatever you think of PMs, as a moderator I'm going to ask that you do in fact check them. This is one of the ways we communicate to posters. It is important that you read your PMs.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2013 22:23:07 GMT -5
Jmei I think we need to face facts. Nava could not hit a ball hard for the rest of his life and your opinion on him will not change. Thank you CH for your, as usual, well written analysis. P.S. As a personal policy I do not read or respond to PMs. I haven't found any value in doing so. First, I apologize for unnecessarily needling and antagonizing you. It showed lack of self-restraint and judgment on my part. Second, here is the full and complete text of my PM: Let's move on.
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Post by izzy on Sept 7, 2013 17:09:02 GMT -5
Some posters will do anything to defend this guy. He can't hit. At least not enough to play a corner OF position on a regular basis. Pitchers have adjusted to him and he's stopped hitting and stopped walking. This shouldn't be a surprise because this is exactly what happened in both 2010, and 2012. Since you wrote this comment Nava has put up a .377/.488/.580 line. He has a .300/ .392/.450 line on the season. He's tenth in the majors in OBP among qualified batters. I believe he's definitely shown that he hits enough to start everyday against right-handed pitching. I don't know if you still feel this way but he absolutely can hit.
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 17:38:58 GMT -5
Nava is below Werth $16M and above Wright $10M among qualifiers in OBP, whatever he would get in arbitration, I say it is good value. He may be having a career year at 300/392/450, but career 270/371/413 isn't bad either. 2013 WAR is 2.5, some where cited $5M per WAR is a typical free agent price? MLB average OBP for outfielders is 330ish. Nava also just had a baby -congrats- so I suppose he will take a reasonable offer for the security. Oh yeah, maybe next year he will actually be on the All-Star ballot instead of a write-in candidate.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 7, 2013 17:44:29 GMT -5
The way Nava has been utilized by Farrell has been damn near perfect. First of all he's 30 years old. That fits in very well with the platooning he's seen. He gets to lay low every few days, and they get to put his high OBP into play every few days. And yes, that has real value - outfield, infield, catcher, DH... whatever. Of all the basic stats, the one that correlates most closely with runs is OBP. And while the .450 slugging isn't at the top of the list, he gets enough XBHs to place himself well up among left-fielders for OPS. What is ARod being paid this year? He's not in the same ballpark as Nava who's making maybe 1/50 as much. He's one reason why the Sox are where they are, and ARod is another for why NY is where they are.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 7, 2013 17:51:27 GMT -5
Nava is below Werth $16M and above Wright $10M among qualifiers in OBP, whatever he would get in arbitration, I say it is good value. He may be having a career year at 300/392/450, but career 270/371/413 isn't bad either. 2013 WAR is 2.5, some where cited $5M per WAR is a typical free agent price? MLB average OBP for outfielders is 330ish. Nava also just had a baby -congrats- so I suppose he will take a reasonable offer for the security. He is really having a terrific season and whole heartedly agree with you there. Outstanding play all around, team guy, learns to play any place the team wants him to help out at. Have doubts he will be able to come close to the season he is putting up and don't think he is going to be arbitration eligible either. He's going to be just a tad short of Super 2 is what I found?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 7, 2013 17:54:58 GMT -5
Part of the problem with Nava is that he is such a nice guy that he probably doesn't advocate well for himself. He's easy to cut psychologically, or was as he was developing. The bigger problem was that his body type just is not common for a pro athlete, but neither was the body of Pete Rose! It takes more than just the tools as we all know by now but most of us continue to underestimate the intangibles and the aptitudinal factors. The guy has hit at every level and look how long it took for most of us to "get it". Everyone kept saying "it's no big deal that he hit .341 again this year because he is older". The next thing out of their mouth ( some of you might recognize that mouth ) was "Forget about him, he'll never make it".
He was older but he was developing also. He had aptitude but just was not given a chance. I think the guy should be playing more often. He has put up a decent sample size this year. The guy is a keeper and his high OBP approach is really a great fit for this team. We need more players like him and he's cheap as heck for God's sake. Play the guy or clear someone to give him their slot.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 7, 2013 18:01:31 GMT -5
We seem to be working really hard to find explanations as to why a career .261/.360/.398 hitter is hitting .279/.353/.344 this month. Which career? Do you mean the 500 PAs during two stretches prior to this year, including the the wrist injury he played through in 2012? Or should we include the 2000 PAs from his minor league days? That's a real track record, one that should be weighted, of course, but one that shouldn't be ignored. He's doing in the majors exactly what he did in the minors. He learns the pitchers, learns how to get on base against them, and gets extra bases every few at bats. And, as he's shown, he's better than that line you posted.
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 19:52:46 GMT -5
I find it hilarious that in this thread, people are complaining about Nava's lack of HR/XBH power, and in the WMB thread complaining about high SO, low avg etc. We should replace these guys with players who can hit 40HR and OBP 390+, oh yeah, it would be nice to get this at a MLB minimum. The MFY could make Arod available? I would be curious about on what Nava would get in arbitration is his stats held. JohnS says Nava is not eligible yet? Somehow, I think it would not break the bank - for the tightwad Astros!
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 7, 2013 21:02:09 GMT -5
Hi JChang,
Think might to explain my post a bit more, as well as go into more detail on it.
Boston would probably be wise to attempt a 2-3Y contract now with Daniel, just like the team has with several others in this category before. Being non eligible for arbitration does not affect his efforts and support to the team.
I could see Cherrington & Co. attempting to get him to go for a 3y 7-9m deal for instance, with another year team option.
As for not eligible for arbitration. BR shows Nava at 1.066 service time coming into this season, that will give him 2.066 and leave him shy of what we have seen printed at BA of 2.121. A shame for Daniel, but may help the Sox if they attempt a multi year deal.
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 21:29:03 GMT -5
thanks, but I was just curious. Suppose Nava posts his .390 OBP this year and next, good for WAR 2.5. Jayson Werth has similar OBP, much higher SLG good for WAR 3.7. His salary from 05,07-10 went from $337K, 850K, 1.7M, 2.5M, 7.5M with WAR 3-4.5. I should find a more recent OF with WAR 2.5, but don't know how to get baseball-reference to show it. BRef say Nava arb el 2015. so perhaps Nava would be 0.5, 1, 1.5M for the next 3yr, or has the scale changed? It would be nice to see Nava get 7-9m, but he may have slog in the trenches for 4-5 years to get it.
OK, here is Dexter Fowler, COL, OBP 365, WAR 2.7/2.7/1.9 in 2011-13 salary 424K, 2.35M, 4.25M, so it looks like you were right on for 3yr, 7M+ Lets see, if I just had a baby girl, I think I would take the financial security.
Correction: I would ask the missus for her input, then I would find that my opinion just happens to match hers.
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Post by ikonos on Sept 7, 2013 23:23:32 GMT -5
So far Nava has been making 500K or so per year for his MLB service time. Given his past, and getting up there in age and mostly a platoon player a 3 yr deal would absolutely work for both sides. We are short on OF and he has shown he can play in Boston. I hope he can get a decent chunk of change. I rather give him the money he deserves than any one else.
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Post by knuckledown on Sept 10, 2013 8:54:02 GMT -5
So far Nava has been making 500K or so per year for his MLB service time. Given his past, and getting up there in age and mostly a platoon player a 3 yr deal would absolutely work for both sides. We are short on OF and he has shown he can play in Boston. I hope he can get a decent chunk of change. I rather give him the money he deserves than any one else. This is a very interesting idea and worth talking about: Pros: fixed price Cons: poorly defined role (that being the nature of a platoon, 4th OF and backup 1B), limits flexibility with upcoming talent and Nava's decline unless there is a minor league option. I don't know enough about MLB contracts to know if it's feasible, but wouldn't it be worth it to pay Nava more and include a option? If Cherringtonian isn't a word, it will soon be.
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Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2013 10:26:03 GMT -5
I reluctantly wouldn't extend Nava and would rather go year-to-year with him. His story is a great one and he's had to claw for every bit of success he's had, and in some ways it'd be nice to reward someone like that. But from a dispassionate GM perspective, it doesn't make a lot of sense to extend a 30-year-old left fielder who isn't even arb-eligible this offseason. The Red Sox have team control of him through his age-34 season, and he won't get paid a lot in arbitration because his main skill (OBP) isn't the kind which the arbitrators value as much as they should. Going year-to-year lets them cut bait if Nava starts entering age-related decline or suffers a significant injury, and for a team like the Red Sox, saving a couple million (the main advantage of extending Nava) isn't that important.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 10, 2013 10:38:14 GMT -5
Nava doesn't do the kind of things that get rewarded in arbitration. And I love him but would anyone would be surprised if this is by far his career year? Makes zero sense to extend him.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 10, 2013 10:45:10 GMT -5
And I love him but would anyone would be surprised if this is by far his career year? Yes. He was good last year until he got hurt, he's been good this year. He's only 30. 2013 might end up as his best year, but I see no reason to expect a significant decline in the short term.
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Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2013 10:53:20 GMT -5
Yeah, but by the time he's arbitration eligible (2015 season), he'll be entering his age-32 season. By that point, you're certainly expecting a decline, even if it's not necessarily a significant one. Also remember that he's been nicked up frequently over the past few years. More likely than not, this very moment is probably when his value is at its highest (which is why we've seen posters want to extend him)-- there's little reason to expect him to improve going forward (one could make the argument that if he was injury-free and avoided slumps for a whole season, he could be a .400/.450 guy, which is possible but unlikely), but there are plenty of reasons to expect him to decline.
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