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Post by tjb21 on Sept 12, 2013 9:53:02 GMT -5
I really don't think he's had enough work at 1b to get enough judgement of his abilities on that. Less than 10G total at the MLB level, -0- in the minors. It's why I'd like to see him play the position exclusively during ST. If a guy like Napoli can barely play it? Then a guy like Nava, Gomes, maybe even Lavarnway can learn to. Have mentioned this before here, but George Scott in his last couple of seasons played 1b with a balloon belly and even made the basic moves around the bag. Nava can move, as long as he has any reactions to grounders, line drives he should do ok and ST could determine that. My thoughts. You realize Napoli has been the best 1B in baseball according to UZR this year right?
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 10:01:12 GMT -5
Napoli has legitimately been a very good defensive first baseman. Soft hands, solid range, and excellent reflexes.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 12, 2013 10:04:18 GMT -5
You realize Napoli has been the best 1B in baseball according to UZR this year right? Do you actually consider Napoli the best fielding first baseman in baseball? UZR is an indication that he may okay, but there is plenty of room for debate.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 10:17:35 GMT -5
The problem with that is that is that if you can't play him in RF he's not as valuable on a team with two other guys who can also only play LF.
As we well know there are five ways to produce offensive value. (Power, Speed, BABIP, contact, and walks). For the past two plus months he hasn't been that great in any of those areas other than BABIP, .395 since June 20. I really don't know of any regular players who don't provide any other value other than in BABIP.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 10:32:25 GMT -5
Let's take a larger sample size-- his career marks over 981 PAs [all league averages are for non-pitchers in 2013]:
.141 ISO, roughly league average (.147) 0.2 career baserunning runs, league average .328 BABIP, above league average (.299) 19.5% K, roughly league average (19.2%) 10.8% BB, above league average (8%)
Note that if we took a Marcel-esque 3-2-1 regression, his marks in all the above would improve, seeing as his marks this year (.146, 0.1, .341, 17.2%, 10.5%, respectively) have all been at or above his career averages. Also, if we took a less cherry-picked split like 2nd half numbers, Nava's stats look a lot better as well (.165 ISO, .417 BABIP, 16.4% K, 11.8% BB).
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Post by knuckledown on Sept 12, 2013 10:32:50 GMT -5
You realize Napoli has been the best 1B in baseball according to UZR this year right? Do you actually consider Napoli the best fielding first baseman in baseball? UZR is an indication that he may okay, but there is plenty of room for debate. So start debating it. What don't you like about Napoli's fielding? To me it's another indication that he should get a QO, which would also indicate that he will not be replaced by Nava/ Carp/ Gomes.
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Post by knuckledown on Sept 12, 2013 10:35:54 GMT -5
Let's take a larger sample size-- his career marks over 981 PAs [all league averages are for non-pitchers in 2013]: .141 ISO, roughly league average (.147) 0.2 career baserunning runs, league average .328 BABIP, above league average (.299) 19.5% K, roughly league average (19.2%) 10.8% BB, above league average (8%) Note that if we took a Marcel-esque 3-2-1 regression, his marks in all the above would improve, seeing as his marks this year (.146, 0.1, .341, 17.2%, 10.5%, respectively) have all been at or above his career averages. Also, if we took a less cherry-picked split like 2nd half numbers, Nava's stats look a lot better as well (.165 ISO, .417 BABIP, 16.4% K, 11.8% BB). Above average when healthy and at a low cost. What about his poorly rated defense? I need help with that part.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 12, 2013 13:13:36 GMT -5
Have we ever seen Daniel Nava not improve at something he worked hard at? ... Height? 4 10" in high school 80 lbs AHHHHHH from there awesome work in the weight room thanks to his dad... I think he improved there too!!!
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Post by onbase on Sept 12, 2013 13:21:41 GMT -5
Some observations and questions ...
I watched two mornings of Spring Training and saw Napoli, Nava, Ortiz and Overbay doing drills at first. The first three were working, Overbay looked totally disinterested. Nava did it all with a smile. Napoli was very focused. And then they went on to other things. When everyone else was heading for the showers or the cars, Napoli was still out there with Butterfield working on grounders and game situations. I have no doubt that if Nava were told the 1B job was his next year, he'd arrive prepared to play good defense at 1B.
UZR - why does it like Napoli and hate Nava (in LF)? It hated Jose and Dustin early in the season, now likes them, and past observation says it needs a goodly sample size to be meaningful. Nava is still in negative territory, and that doesn't match what I see. A low number or a zero, OK, but not a negative.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 13:41:45 GMT -5
UZR hates Nava's range. It's neutral on his error runs (number of runs he gives up through errors) and rates his arm positively. But his range score is -19.5 runs across all his 1858.2 outfield innings, which is pretty atrocious. Based on this scale, his combined OF UZR/150 of -11 would be somewhere between "Poor" and "Awful." I think Nava does really struggle with range, especially laterally, both in terms of cutting off singles and getting to fly balls. But UZR rates him much worse than a scout would, I'd think. My hypothesis: UZR is notoriously bad with LF in Fenway Park because of the Green Monster. A lot of balls hit the Monster that no fielder could possibly have a chance at, but I think UZR negatively credits fielders for not getting to enough of those balls. This post talks about some of those issues. I'm not sure how to get home/road defensive splits, but I'd wager that his road defensive stats are a lot better than his home ones.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 13:52:55 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Total Zone has Nava, over his career, as (all per 1200 innings): +5 in LF -26 in RF +2 at 1B -477 at CF (not a typo, and LOL)
BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average has him, over his career, as (all per 1200 innings): +1 in LF -2 in RF -2 at 1B
B-R also has home/road splits for Total Zone, and they are as follows (raw numbers, NOT per 1200 innings): LF: -4 at home, +4 on the road RF: -3 at home, -5 on the road 1B: +1 at home, 0 on the road
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 14:36:00 GMT -5
Let's take a larger sample size-- his career marks over 981 PAs [all league averages are for non-pitchers in 2013]: .141 ISO, roughly league average (.147) 0.2 career baserunning runs, league average .328 BABIP, above league average (.299) 19.5% K, roughly league average (19.2%) 10.8% BB, above league average (8%) Note that if we took a Marcel-esque 3-2-1 regression, his marks in all the above would improve, seeing as his marks this year (.146, 0.1, .341, 17.2%, 10.5%, respectively) have all been at or above his career averages. Also, if we took a less cherry-picked split like 2nd half numbers, Nava's stats look a lot better as well (.165 ISO, .417 BABIP, 16.4% K, 11.8% BB). If you really think that Nava who has hit exactly one home run over the past ten weeks, is somehow going to put up a league average ISO in any season going forward you are dreaming. It simply isn't going to happen. My projection for him over 500 PAs next year would be .250/.350/.370. That would equate to roughly a .340 W/OBA and a WAR under 1.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 12, 2013 15:08:07 GMT -5
My projection for him over 500 PAs next year would be .250/.350/.370. And your projection for what he would do this year was, what - .600 OPS at AAA and early retirement? The time to quit digging has long since passed.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 15:17:39 GMT -5
My projection for him over 500 PAs next year would be .250/.350/.370. And your projection for what he would do this year was, what - .600 OPS at AAA and early retirement? The time to quit digging has long since passed. I made no projection for 2013, you must be thinking about someone else. But thank you for the snide remark that pretends that a 1.7 WAR player is really some kind of star.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 15:30:16 GMT -5
If you really think that Nava who has hit exactly one home run over the past ten weeks, is somehow going to put up a league average ISO in any season going forward you are dreaming. It simply isn't going to happen. (1) ZiPS RoS projects a .136 ISO and Steamer RoS projects a .141 ISO. (2) Nava's ISOs by month: April: .211 May: .149 June: .120 July:.063 Aug: .167 September: .207 (3) He doesn't have to hit home runs to be a useful player. Nava's 26 doubles ranks 5th amongst the 17 qualifying left fielders despite coming in 13th in PAs. (4) Here is what you wrote about Daniel Nava in this thread on July 26th: Since then, he's hit .396/.473/.563 in August and .345/.486/.552 in September.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2013 15:34:52 GMT -5
I made no projection for 2013, you must be thinking about someone else. Here's what you said in an earlier thread: He's now at 476 PAs with a 129 wRC+.
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Post by izzy on Sept 12, 2013 15:49:30 GMT -5
If you really think that Nava who has hit exactly one home run over the past ten weeks, is somehow going to put up a league average ISO in any season going forward you are dreaming. It simply isn't going to happen. My projection for him over 500 PAs next year would be .250/.350/.370. That would equate to roughly a .340 W/OBA and a WAR under 1. I'm honestly not trying to start a fight but you seem to hate Nava for non baseball reasons. Does some of your pessimism come from him making your predictions look bad? Would you at least be willing to admit that he's been a valuable player for the Red Sox this year? There's no shame in being wrong about a player- Before the 2012 season I predicted Lester would win 20 games.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 16:13:18 GMT -5
[/quote]I'm honestly not trying to start a fight but you seem to hate Nava for non baseball reasons. Does some of your pessimism come from him making your predictions look bad? Would you at least be willing to admit that he's been a valuable player for the Red Sox this year? There's no shame in being wrong about a player- Before the 2012 season I predicted Lester would win 20 games. [quote/]
I don't "hate" Daniel Nava. He just hasn't been nearly as good, as people think he's been from any standpoint and the data shows that. I also think he's very likely to regress from even the meager numbers he's put up so far this year.
I think that people are just angry because they want him to be better than he is because of his story. But that doesn't change the fact that he's hit one homerun since June 20th.
I stand by my projections and as opposed to taking shots. Perhaps people should make some projections of their own.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 12, 2013 16:33:57 GMT -5
I project that Nava had his own developmental process which took longer than normal but he is now a potential starting level player on a lot of teams with his main strength being OBP but he will have potential 15 HR pop also for the next few years with a BA in the .270-.300 range. And slightly below average level defense in LF.
I'm not seeing his current performance level being due mainly to luck. I'm seeing a decent contact rate with the type of swing which often generates more hits than the contact rate would normally generate ( and inside out swing ).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 16:52:59 GMT -5
You are absolutely 100% wrong on this point. Since June 20th, he's hit a HR/PA of .7%. There is simply no way that he can be valuable over an entire season hitting this way.
You are a big fan of stating his career numbers. Well for his career, 64% of his hits have been singles. If only 1% are HRs, and 35% 2B I get an ISO of .120. That would be fourth lowest among qualifying LFs in 2013. I don't see how you get to 2.5 WAR/600 PAs with an ISO that low unless you can really field.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 17:02:44 GMT -5
Just one note on this and then I am done for the night.
It is a fallacy to believe that because a player developed later, that he will not follow a normal decline curve. A players body doesn't know that it took him till the age of 30 to win a major league job.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 17:05:21 GMT -5
Which wasn't a projection. But I am glad that this is important enough to you to crawl back through old postings. Mrs. Nava will be so happy, but jealous.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 12, 2013 17:32:34 GMT -5
Which wasn't a projection. But I am glad that this is important enough to you to crawl back through old postings. Mrs. Nava will be so happy, but jealous. I thought you promised to be done for the night...
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Post by izzy on Sept 12, 2013 18:22:00 GMT -5
Which wasn't a projection. But I am glad that this is important enough to you to crawl back through old postings. Mrs. Nava will be so happy, but jealous. I think it's bothering people because despite being wrong about a lot of things regarding how well Nava would hit going forward, you just keep digging your heels in deeper. You flat out stated that "he can't hit" and despite all evidence to the contrary you seem to stick by that belief. He's hitting .300 with an OBP over .390 right now. Most people on here will acknowledge Nava's strengths and weaknesses but you only focus on what he can't do.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 12, 2013 18:26:03 GMT -5
Which wasn't a projection. But I am glad that this is important enough to you to crawl back through old postings. Mrs. Nava will be so happy, but jealous. I think it's bothering people because despite being wrong about a lot of things regarding how well Nava would hit going forward, you just keep digging your heels in deeper. You flat out stated that "he can't hit" and despite all evidence to the contrary you seem to stick by that belief. He's hitting .300 with an OBP over .390 right now. Most people on here will acknowledge Nava's strengths and weaknesses but you only focus on what he can't do. This is very true, and sadly all the failing to acknowledge anything and the negativity is close to taking over and ruining this thread. Hopefully we can move on to something more relevant.
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