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Post by jchang on Sept 12, 2013 20:56:31 GMT -5
It seems those negative on Nava because of his lack luster power, and are not impressed with piddly singles. In looking at primary LF players in 2013, there is some impressive HR power in this spot lead by Soriano at 32. Six LF players currently have more than 20 HR, and 3 are at 19 so likely to finish over 20. There are 16 members of this group with 12 or more HR (including Gomes) with a combined line of 257/330/460, for ISO 203. Compare with Nava ISO at 147. But what is the WAR value of power versus OBP? Soriano line is 252/291/487 over 571 PA, WAR 1.9 Nava is 300/390/447 over 476 PA, WAR 2.6 (up to day from 2.5 2 days ago?) I have no idea what Nava will be next year, but he has earned his $510K salary for 2014. Given that Nava and Carp are controlled, and Gomes is under contract, this seems like a decent offensive platoon + 1B backup. It is possible one of these 3 could be challenged by Hassan, Brentz or free-agent. (I am excluding JB from LF or bench consideration)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2013 22:16:14 GMT -5
I don't get it. Nava has a .390 OPB. That is extremely valuable. This might well be his career year. He may never be better.
But in 2013 Nava has been a very good player. Don't see why Moonstone is focusing on what he doesn't do well and is missing the obvious value of what he is doing very well - get on base which is a huge asset. Guys with a .390 OBP don't grow on trees.
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Post by jchang on Sept 12, 2013 22:44:48 GMT -5
Nava has 14 HBP in addition to his 50BB, good for a 30 point boost in his OBP. So is HBP chance or a talent? singles and BB are not sexy, oh well. But even if Nava falls to WAR 1 in 2014, there are only 121 players performing at WAR 2 and higher in all of MLB as of a few days ago, or average of 4 per team over 30 teams. There are 201 at WAR 1 and higher, not enough to fill the 15x9 AL and 15x8 NL slots = 255.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 13, 2013 11:46:04 GMT -5
Nava has 14 HBP in addition to his 50BB, good for a 30 point boost in his OBP. So is HBP chance or a talent? singles and BB are not sexy, oh well. But even if Nava falls to WAR 1 in 2014, there are only 121 players performing at WAR 2 and higher in all of MLB as of a few days ago, or average of 4 per team over 30 teams. There are 201 at WAR 1 and higher, not enough to fill the 15x9 AL and 15x8 NL slots = 255. Youk was also good at the HBP, and it helped his OBP. I'm pretty sure Nava has always done this as well. And on the WAR front, you can give him (and I'm sure many other players) a boost given that he has been some type of platoon player most of the year, and would have a higher total WAR if he were playing every day (though probably worse numbers against the LHP).
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Post by jchang on Sept 13, 2013 13:23:27 GMT -5
Victorino is getting hit a lot this year, and he had one other year with 10+ HBP? So is it possible this can be a skill? as opposed to chance? aside from not jumping out of the way when possible? Suppose it became known that a player can be fooled into swinging on an inside pitch but well out of the strike zone, would that encourage pitchers to throw in? Of course, if you must take one for the team, an 80mph CB is preferred to a 96 FB, It would also be nice to not be hit in a critical body part, the uniform counts right?
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2013 15:09:26 GMT -5
HBP is definitely a skill-- it has a better year-to-year correlation than intentional walks, OBP, and AVG, for instance. It varies mostly based on (a) how close a hitter stands to the plate and (b) how willing that hitter is to take a HBP (i.e., some players will lean into a pitch or just let it hit them, others will dive out of the way). I suppose opposing pitchers' willingness to pitch inside probably matters as well.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 16:47:08 GMT -5
I think one of the fallouts of the sabermetric revolution so to speak is that it has caused some fans to overvalue walks and undervalue HRs. Make no mistake, fangraphs values a HR at nearly 3X that of a walk and at about .83 more runs more.
As for Nava, the point I was trying to make yesterday is that if he homers in the single digits, it's nearly impossible for him to be valuable. What the data shows is that if you are a LF who doesn't hit HRs you better do something else that's outstanding like make contact, walk, or field, hit the ball in play, or run.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 13, 2013 16:48:42 GMT -5
When there's a higher number of HBP by a batter consistently, it's a skill.
I think of Don Baylor, Craig Biggio, and Ron Hunt. They used to get hit all of the time. I remember Baylor in 1986. It was one of his weapons. In fact I remember he got hit leading off the 11th inning of Game 5 of the ALCS to ignite the go ahead rally. He was always leaning over the plate daring the pitcher to hit him.
I think it's mainly lack of fear of getting hit by a pitch, so they hang over the plate. Not all batters have that kind of skill/fortitude/craziness.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 16:55:10 GMT -5
Yet neither of those things, take any athletic ability.
The question is how much value can a player derrive from being him 2-3% of the time. I would submit that the answer is "not much". First off we must remember that not all of the HBPs would turn into outs. In fact around 34% would either turn into walks or hits anyways.
Secondly, unlike walks there are tradeoffs to standing closer to the plate. You'll be more susceptible to inside pitches, and at greater risk for injury. These are not factors with walks. These three factors make the value of being hit 15 times a year negligible at best in my view.
I agree with Chris' earlier statement that this is a really silly debate. I think we can all agree that getting hit by a pitch does not require as much baseball skill as a walk or a hit.
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2013 17:07:25 GMT -5
I think one of the fallouts of the sabermetric revolution so to speak is that it has caused some fans to overvalue walks and undervalue HRs. Make no mistake, fangraphs values a HR at nearly 3X that of a walk and at about .83 more runs more. As for Nava, the point I was trying to make yesterday is that if he homers in the single digits, it's nearly impossible for him to be valuable. What the data shows is that if you are a LF who doesn't hit HRs you better do something else that's outstanding like make contact, walk, or field, hit the ball in play, or run. Well, Nava has averaged 11 home runs per 600 PAs across his major league career. And as I mentioned earlier, he has done all those things you mentioned above (except field) at at least an average level up to this point in his career. It's obviously an open-ended question whether he'll continue to do so in the future (i.e., I understand that we disagree on Nava's projection and I think it's a reasonable disagreement), but the idea that Nava could maintain or improve on his career marks to date shouldn't be outlandish. For instance, I certainly don't think citing one cherry-picked small sample size stat (i.e., Nava's post-June 20th HR rate) proves he can't be a productive player.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 13, 2013 17:14:40 GMT -5
I think one of the fallouts of the sabermetric revolution so to speak is that it has caused some fans to overvalue walks and undervalue HRs. Make no mistake, fangraphs values a HR at nearly 3X that of a walk and at about .83 more runs more. As for Nava, the point I was trying to make yesterday is that if he homers in the single digits, it's nearly impossible for him to be valuable. What the data shows is that if you are a LF who doesn't hit HRs you better do something else that's outstanding like make contact, walk, or field, hit the ball in play, or run. All of that stuff gets factored into WAR; that's why we're using it. So if there's something he has to do to be valuable, then he must be doing it, or he wouldn't be valuable. I don't understand how that's not clear?
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 14, 2013 11:51:35 GMT -5
I think getting hit is a skill. If you stand close to the plate and don't move you will get hit more. Victorino is good at it.He even gets away with moving his arm into the pitch. The best I ever saw at it was Don Baylor. He not only wouldn't move he often smiled and tossed the ball back to the pitcher after getting hit. On Nava. He's had a top notch year. I won't bet against him doing it again next year. His agent (jmei) sold me on him during the off season. I may not be a stat guy, but I don't ignore them either.
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Post by izzy on Sept 14, 2013 14:26:58 GMT -5
According to Fangraphs, Nava is 13th in the league in Line Drive rate. All the players above him have very high BABIP. Is Nava's .350 BABIP somewhat sustainable or should we expect to see a large regression next year?
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 14, 2013 14:37:49 GMT -5
According to Fangraphs, Nava is 13th in the league in Line Drive rate. All the players above him have very high BABIP. Is Nava's .350 BABIP somewhat sustainable or should we expect to see a large regression next year? Regardless of what most here are trying to overlook Nava should have a normal year for 14. That being said it should than be about a .270/.370/.410 for about a .780
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 16, 2013 10:23:24 GMT -5
Imagine if I told you after 2008 that 5 years later Lars Anderson would be essentially out of baseball and Daniel Nava would have the 5th highest OBP in the American League.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 16, 2013 11:04:15 GMT -5
Yet neither of those things, take any athletic ability. The question is how much value can a player derrive from being him 2-3% of the time. I would submit that the answer is "not much". First off we must remember that not all of the HBPs would turn into outs. In fact around 34% would either turn into walks or hits anyways. Secondly, unlike walks there are tradeoffs to standing closer to the plate. You'll be more susceptible to inside pitches, and at greater risk for injury. These are not factors with walks. These three factors make the value of being hit 15 times a year negligible at best in my view. I agree with Chris' earlier statement that this is a really silly debate. I think we can all agree that getting hit by a pitch does not require as much baseball skill as a walk or a hit. Dude, no one is making that point. We are making the point that being hit is something that a player can and will continue to do next year, and THEREFORE his bump in OBP from those HBP should not be ignored as someone suggested earlier. Nava now has the 2nd highest AL OBP for an outfielder. That's effing valuable, and the HBP are part of how he got there.
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Post by jchang on Sept 16, 2013 12:47:04 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 16, 2013 21:49:47 GMT -5
Is anyone arguing that he's not worth a roster spot and a sub $1M contract for 2014? If not, then nothing else matters. At worst he's a backup 1b/ 5th OF that can get hot for a prolonged stretch (he's done that insistently at this point)... That's worth the money and roster spot.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 16, 2013 21:55:53 GMT -5
Was wondering if anyone would mention that since it's been brought up a couple times in this thread. He never moved out of the way and it didn't matter who was pitching, or how hard they were throwing. Just the opposite was George Bell, who was well know to charge the mound when a pitcher would throw a ball up and in to him, much less him get hit.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 17, 2013 12:34:40 GMT -5
Was wondering if anyone would mention that since it's been brought up a couple times in this thread. He never moved out of the way and it didn't matter who was pitching, or how hard they were throwing. Just the opposite was George Bell, who was well know to charge the mound when a pitcher would throw a ball up and in to him, much less him get hit. George Bell charges Aaron Sele. Mo Vaughn intervenes. I know this is getting a little off topic but any time I can post that I really can't pass it up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2013 12:49:13 GMT -5
Was wondering if anyone would mention that since it's been brought up a couple times in this thread. He never moved out of the way and it didn't matter who was pitching, or how hard they were throwing. Just the opposite was George Bell, who was well know to charge the mound when a pitcher would throw a ball up and in to him, much less him get hit. George Bell charges Aaron Sele. Mo Vaughn intervenes. I know this is getting a little off topic but any time I can post that I really can't pass it up. I remember George Bell karate kicking Bruce Kison in the you know what back in 1985 when Kison, then pitching for the Sox, drilled him. And Kison was known as a headhunter.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 17, 2013 13:55:04 GMT -5
Can we end the hit by pitch debate in this thread? I know I'm not a mod, but it's a bit ridiculous at this point and really has no end game. It only somewhat pertains to Nava and has been beaten to death at this point in my opinion. Whether Nava falls between a .370 and .390 OBP is irrelevant.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 17, 2013 14:10:10 GMT -5
Was wondering if anyone would mention that since it's been brought up a couple times in this thread. He never moved out of the way and it didn't matter who was pitching, or how hard they were throwing. Just the opposite was George Bell, who was well know to charge the mound when a pitcher would throw a ball up and in to him, much less him get hit. George Bell charges Aaron Sele. Mo Vaughn intervenes. I know this is getting a little off topic but any time I can post that I really can't pass it up. The image of Mo Vaughn laying out Bell is one of my fondest childhood memory's. thank you for the link.
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Post by onbase on Sept 17, 2013 14:10:52 GMT -5
Can we end the hit by pitch debate in this thread? I know I'm not a mod, but it's a bit ridiculous at this point and really has no end game. It only somewhat pertains to Nava and has been beaten to death at this point in my opinion. Whether Nava falls between a .370 and .390 OBP is irrelevant. Irrelevant to what? Are you saying that 20 points of OBP don't matter? From a link above: Having fun and playing ball is something the Red Sox have had no trouble doing this month, going 11-3 and riding a torrid offense that has scored 100 runs in the span of those 14 games. However, according to Nava, there are still ways for the team to get better. “It’s baseball, you can always play better,” he said, before offering a reason how. “How? We could never get out.”
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 17, 2013 14:21:52 GMT -5
does your opinion change on Nava depending on if he has a .370 or a .390 OBP? No one is saying .20 in OBP doesn't matter in real world context, but when it pertains to what Daniel Nava is, I say it's irrelevant. Have you been reading this thread? The HPB discussion is atrocious. It doesn't change anything regarding Nava. Someone said they've added .3 to his OBP. Well that's great. No chance he goes to not getting hit at all so whether it's a skill or not has less of an effect than that.
He's going to get paid less than a million next year so yes the .370 or .390 OBP is irrelevant.
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