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2023 Draft Signing Period
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 13, 2023 11:04:59 GMT -5
Rounds 11+ you get a flat 150k to spend per pick, and if you go under you don't gain any bonus money to spend elsewhere. You draft the cheap guys in the first ten rounds so you can gain cap money to spend elsewhere. But I believe that's where the question stems. If he signs for 100K as a Top 10 (rd) pick, he costs you 100K. If he signs for 100K as an 11th rd pick, he doesn't cost you anything (against the pool, that is). Say you have a guy willing to sign for 10k, and a guy willing to sign for 150k. If you draft the 10k guy in the 10th and the 150k guy in the 11th, you gain 150k in cap money to spend on other players. You do it the other way around and you don't get that 150k. If you don't sign a player with a draft pick, you the slot value of the pick is subtracted from your cap.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2023 11:06:08 GMT -5
Rounds 11+ you get a flat 150k to spend per pick, and if you go under you don't gain any bonus money to spend elsewhere. You draft the cheap guys in the first ten rounds so you can gain cap money to spend elsewhere. But I believe that's where the question stems. If he signs for 100K as a Top 10 (rd) pick, he costs you 100K. If he signs for 100K as an 11th rd pick, he doesn't cost you anything (against the pool, that is). But by the same token, he saves them $78k drafting him in the first 10 and nothing if he's 11+. I think the answer is we need to see it all come together.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 11:22:03 GMT -5
I'm still a little unsure how the draft and follow deal works, is Nelly Taylor eligible for that?
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Post by texs31 on Jul 13, 2023 11:23:26 GMT -5
But I believe that's where the question stems. If he signs for 100K as a Top 10 (rd) pick, he costs you 100K. If he signs for 100K as an 11th rd pick, he doesn't cost you anything (against the pool, that is). But by the same token, he saves them $78k drafting him in the first 10 and nothing if he's 11+. I think the answer is we need to see it all come together. Yes, I assumed (I know, I know) that the original question was why not draft a 10K guy there and then get this guy in the 11th. But you're correct. We need to see how it all plays out. If they get the guys signed AND get the (presumably) player they liked (instead of risking someone else getting him), then it'll all make sense.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 13, 2023 11:25:14 GMT -5
I'm still a little unsure how the draft and follow deal works, is Nelly Taylor eligible for that? Draft and follow only applies to guys that play JuCo after they're drafted, Taylor is committed to Florida State
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 13, 2023 11:30:10 GMT -5
Another one where I thought there would be more savings. Question on this one - if Wehunt was going to cost a little money, why not wait until rounds 11-13 and try to draft him? I know the obvious answer is "he might not be there" but was just curious if there's any nuance here that I wouldn't know about as a casual draft watcher. Certainly, the he might be there is part of it. 1 team could have had the same idea to get him underslot. I think its important context to remember while the signing may be more or less savings than we expected, it's not what the Red Sox expected (Jud Fabian not withstanding). They had an idea what it would take to sign these two and that theory is backed up by the fact they are the 1st 2 to sign, and so quickly, so the difference of that projected $190K from what initially thought, isn't the difference on whether they sign Oloski or Call IMO.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 13, 2023 11:39:35 GMT -5
Really interesting interview with Kiley McDaniel here on Wharton Moneyball podcast (free) that would've been great to have before the draft, but schedules and availability and all that. Anyway, it's all about the draft, how teams model and pick, what they can and can't project and what they're looking in general. A few interesting takeaways: - He talked about how teams project pitchers with so-so velo to become much better going forward. One team (unnamed) uses a high speed imagining system to look at efficiency of push-off foot, which they have shown is predictive in projecting increased velo down the road. - He talked about one team in particular (unnamed) that picks completely based on what the model/computer says regarding position and dollar value. So if a guy becomes available that they like, but the model says his max bonus should not exceed $400k and the kid wants $500k they won't budge. - He only mentioned three teams by name: • Colorado, which he said has basically wasted $200 million in draft capital in the last several years. • NYY, which he said is "among the best" at analyzing their prospects when they are at or near top value in the minors and determining whether they are regulars on a playoff team. If not, they trade them then and there when industry perceptions are at their zenith. • Cleveland, on whether they are really good at drafting because they've consistently found starting pitcher value after the third round, or if that's just small(ish) sample bias over the last five years or so. Lots of other stuff that should've gotten follow-up questions, but they were limited by McDaniel's hard deadline. Fascinating stuff. I found myself wondering how much influence Driveline has in predictive modeling for hitters and pitchers using bio-mechanical imaging.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 11:42:34 GMT -5
I'm still a little unsure how the draft and follow deal works, is Nelly Taylor eligible for that? Draft and follow only applies to guys that play JuCo after they're drafted, Taylor is committed to Florida State I thought it was for guys currently at a JuCo. Wasn't Ehrlicher committed to ASU?
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 13, 2023 11:56:37 GMT -5
Draft and follow only applies to guys that play JuCo after they're drafted, Taylor is committed to Florida State I thought it was for guys currently at a JuCo. Wasn't Ehrlicher committed to ASU? He was, but he played Juco the '23 season his team started in Jan!) after he was drafted and committed to ASU for the '24 spring.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jul 13, 2023 13:02:26 GMT -5
Question on this one - if Wehunt was going to cost a little money, why not wait until rounds 11-13 and try to draft him? I know the obvious answer is "he might not be there" but was just curious if there's any nuance here that I wouldn't know about as a casual draft watcher. Certainly, the he might be there is part of it. 1 team could have had the same idea to get him underslot. I think its important context to remember while the signing may be more or less savings than we expected, it's not what the Red Sox expected (Jud Fabian not withstanding). They had an idea what it would take to sign these two and that theory is backed up by the fact they are the 1st 2 to sign, and so quickly, so the difference of that projected $190K from what initially thought, isn't the difference on whether they sign Oloski or Call IMO. Sadly, I think our picks we see as value may sign for more. I'd hate to predict how much they'll sign for.
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Post by aboynamedkimandrew on Jul 13, 2023 13:23:59 GMT -5
Question on this one - if Wehunt was going to cost a little money, why not wait until rounds 11-13 and try to draft him? I know the obvious answer is "he might not be there" but was just curious if there's any nuance here that I wouldn't know about as a casual draft watcher. Certainly, the he might be there is part of it. 1 team could have had the same idea to get him underslot. I think its important context to remember while the signing may be more or less savings than we expected, it's not what the Red Sox expected (Jud Fabian not withstanding). They had an idea what it would take to sign these two and that theory is backed up by the fact they are the 1st 2 to sign, and so quickly, so the difference of that projected $190K from what initially thought, isn't the difference on whether they sign Oloski or Call IMO. I wonder if the seniors have a bit more leverage these days since they can use the one year COVID exemption to go back for a fifth season. It's probably not a major shift, but it might be enough to turn down the <$20K senior signs of yesteryear.
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Post by auger1 on Jul 13, 2023 13:24:31 GMT -5
Honestly, both the Rose and Wehunt signings seem like pretty gigantic overpays (Rose especially). My guess is that the team definitely doesn't sign Call and Orloski and I wouldn't be surprised if Schlaegel didn't sign either.
This is what Chaim and co. get paid for so hopefully they are correct on both of them as to why they are worth what they got because from the information that we have, Mike's predictions looked pretty spot on (and his were $190K less than what they got)
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Post by auger1 on Jul 13, 2023 13:26:14 GMT -5
Surprised he got that much. I thought that would be a $10k signing. You're not the only one. I know he was injured but his numbers were very poor for a college player last year (and I don't believe he was a sought after HS prospect)
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Post by soxinnj on Jul 13, 2023 13:39:41 GMT -5
Surprised he got that much. I thought that would be a $10k signing. You're not the only one. I know he was injured but his numbers were very poor for a college player last year (and I don't believe he was a sought after HS prospect) I don’t know if his numbers were “poor”…if he wasn’t hurt and played the full 64-game season, he would’ve had 12 HR, 60 runs scored, 12 SB, OPS of almost .900….didn’t make an error on 105 opportunities…all while playing in the SEC? That sounds more like average to above average. And also you don’t know how much the injuries actually affected his play. I know nothing about him as a player besides what I’ve seen, but I def didnt think he’s a $10,000 sign as a junior.
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 13, 2023 13:43:02 GMT -5
Surprised he got that much. I thought that would be a $10k signing. Apparently, The Bloom is Off the Rose
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2023 13:54:16 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2023 13:55:57 GMT -5
So that's $449,100 saved between Weins, Rose, and Wehunt.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 13, 2023 14:00:16 GMT -5
I'm not sure how we - or even evaluators without team/agent access - can assess what is or is not an overpay.
Not to mention the fact that many of us aren't delving deep into the Draft Financials of all 30 teams.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 13, 2023 14:01:44 GMT -5
Surprised he got that much. I thought that would be a $10k signing. Apparently, The Bloom is Off the Rose Also 🫣 [rolling eyes emoji]
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Post by Guidas on Jul 13, 2023 16:08:00 GMT -5
Really interesting interview with Kiley McDaniel here on Wharton Moneyball podcast (free) that would've been great to have before the draft, but schedules and availability and all that. Anyway, it's all about the draft, how teams model and pick, what they can and can't project and what they're looking in general. A few interesting takeaways: - He talked about how teams project pitchers with so-so velo to become much better going forward. One team (unnamed) uses a high speed imagining system to look at efficiency of push-off foot, which they have shown is predictive in projecting increased velo down the road. - He talked about one team in particular (unnamed) that picks completely based on what the model/computer says regarding position and dollar value. So if a guy becomes available that they like, but the model says his max bonus should not exceed $400k and the kid wants $500k they won't budge. - He only mentioned three teams by name: • Colorado, which he said has basically wasted $200 million in draft capital in the last several years. • NYY, which he said is "among the best" at analyzing their prospects when they are at or near top value in the minors and determining whether they are regulars on a playoff team. If not, they trade them then and there when industry perceptions are at their zenith. • Cleveland, on whether they are really good at drafting because they've consistently found starting pitcher value after the third round, or if that's just small(ish) sample bias over the last five years or so. Lots of other stuff that should've gotten follow-up questions, but they were limited by McDaniel's hard deadline. Fascinating stuff. I found myself wondering how much influence Driveline has in predictive modeling for hitters and pitchers using bio-mechanical imaging. Agree. I've also heard and read about other data collecting tech like pressure plates that measure the force and balance components of pitchers' and hitters as they go through throwing and BP while standing on these plate mechanisms. This is recent (last 2-3 years) tech integration. I am not in a tech-heavy industry but I'm fascinated by various kinds of industrial measuring and performance tech and often wonder what other existing tools are out there that people haven't yet thought of applying to sports performance.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2023 16:27:57 GMT -5
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Post by bosox904 on Jul 13, 2023 16:48:20 GMT -5
Really interesting interview with Kiley McDaniel here on Wharton Moneyball podcast (free) that would've been great to have before the draft, but schedules and availability and all that. Anyway, it's all about the draft, how teams model and pick, what they can and can't project and what they're looking in general. A few interesting takeaways: - He talked about how teams project pitchers with so-so velo to become much better going forward. One team (unnamed) uses a high speed imagining system to look at efficiency of push-off foot, which they have shown is predictive in projecting increased velo down the road. - He talked about one team in particular (unnamed) that picks completely based on what the model/computer says regarding position and dollar value. So if a guy becomes available that they like, but the model says his max bonus should not exceed $400k and the kid wants $500k they won't budge. - He only mentioned three teams by name: • Colorado, which he said has basically wasted $200 million in draft capital in the last several years. • NYY, which he said is "among the best" at analyzing their prospects when they are at or near top value in the minors and determining whether they are regulars on a playoff team. If not, they trade them then and there when industry perceptions are at their zenith. • Cleveland, on whether they are really good at drafting because they've consistently found starting pitcher value after the third round, or if that's just small(ish) sample bias over the last five years or so. Lots of other stuff that should've gotten follow-up questions, but they were limited by McDaniel's hard deadline. He was talking about a player who went in the 2nd round in 2022 that would be drafted a lot higher with hindsight, I think Roman Anthony is who he's talking about.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jul 13, 2023 16:49:47 GMT -5
I thought they would sign Taylor or Call, but not both. Unless we sign one of the three picks far below expected cost. Only bad medicals on one of our first three picks would do that.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2023 17:10:08 GMT -5
Matt Duffy was pitching well on the Cape (hadn't pitched since late June).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2023 17:12:38 GMT -5
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