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Let's make a deal! Building a Yamamoto contract
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 9:57:15 GMT -5
Dodgers can still spend more and be able to reset in 2025 if they wanted to.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 22, 2023 10:00:08 GMT -5
If this were it, Ohtani would be a Mariner. No income tax. People seem to be taking this far harder than you should. It is fine… guy took scads of money to play in a big market with less pressure and a high chance of winning. Oh well. Move on. There is a decent chance the difference between him and Montgomery (for example) is not so massive that this is some tragedy. There is also every indication the Sox made a big offer… so the “cheap” narrative seems out. They just lost out. As did everyone but the Dodgers. Onward. Seattle isn't as close to winning in Ohtani's mind as LAD is but from a purely business standpoint, Seattle, Texas, Houston, and either Florida team makes more business sense than the Mets, Yankees, or any high tax state team where a player would play 81 games. Ohtani's deal circumvents that because he's only getting taxed in CA, because it's after his playing years are over. The teams can also just offer for more money to compensate for tax differences, or structure deals in a more front loaded way to make the NPV better. It’s not like agents won’t point out the tax differences.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 22, 2023 10:02:36 GMT -5
The Ghost of George Steinbrenner has taken over the body and mind of Andrew Friedman.
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Post by costpet on Dec 22, 2023 10:18:54 GMT -5
I agree. If George were still alive, he would have outbid everyone.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 10:23:30 GMT -5
George never had to live in an era with luxury tax thresholds and the penalties that one incurs for going over. He also didn't have ownership groups who could match his spending like the Mets and Dodgers of today.
In some parallel universe, people may know how he would have actually run a team in todays world.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 22, 2023 12:25:53 GMT -5
- Yamamoto's opt outs are after years 5 and 8
- Yankees offer was 10/300
- ZiPS values Yamamoto at 320 over 12.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 22, 2023 12:46:02 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2023 13:15:56 GMT -5
So has there been no reporting confirming or disconfirming whether the Red Sox in fact made a $300 million offer?
It would be nice to know. I feel like the team is tight-lipped to a fault. For one thing, I'd just be curious as a fan to know what they're thinking every now and again. For another thing, they're not doing themselves any favors in regards to the dumb narrative about their unwillingness to spend by not letting the world know when they *are* willing to spend.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,903
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Post by nomar on Dec 22, 2023 13:17:55 GMT -5
I’m not sure where you’d put him this second, but I would love to trade for Busch even if he ends up in LF or DH. A good bat that hasn’t been given a chance and still doesn’t project to this year. Seems like a good chance to power bat with control to the mix.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 22, 2023 13:23:35 GMT -5
So has there been no reporting confirming or disconfirming whether the Red Sox in fact made a $300 million offer? It would be nice to know. I feel like the team is tight-lipped to a fault. For one thing, I'd just be curious as a fan to know what they're thinking every now and again. For another thing, they're not doing themselves any favors in regards to the dumb narrative about their unwillingness to spend by not letting the world know when they *are* willing to spend. Well, there were three different people reporting it before the signing. Today Robert Murray seemed to think the Red Sox were not as involved as even the Phillies were.
Given that YY seemed intent on going to the Dodgers and was just fishing for offers to force them to match, you would think the Red Sox would've been part of this game if they had a real $300 million offer
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2023 13:25:20 GMT -5
So has there been no reporting confirming or disconfirming whether the Red Sox in fact made a $300 million offer? It would be nice to know. I feel like the team is tight-lipped to a fault. For one thing, I'd just be curious as a fan to know what they're thinking every now and again. For another thing, they're not doing themselves any favors in regards to the dumb narrative about their unwillingness to spend by not letting the world know when they *are* willing to spend. Well, there were three different people reporting it before the signing. Today Robert Murray seemed to think the Red Sox were not as involved as even the Phillies were.
Given that YY seemed intent on going to the Dodgers and was just fishing for offers to force them to match, you would think the Red Sox would've been part of this game if they had a real $300 million offer
Yeah, see, I don't know what to make of all that. Speier or it didn't happen.
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Post by majikthise on Dec 22, 2023 13:36:57 GMT -5
I’m not sure where you’d put him this second, but I would love to trade for Busch even if he ends up in LF or DH. A good bat that hasn’t been given a chance and still doesn’t project to this year. Seems like a good chance to power bat with control to the mix. What do we have that they would want? The team isn't really loaded with major talent. Devers, Casas, Bello. rest wouldn't even crack the Dodgers roster. Yeah, being a bit over the top, but you get the picture. we just don't have many pieces with much value in trade.
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ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,376
Member is Online
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 22, 2023 13:41:34 GMT -5
I’m not sure where you’d put him this second, but I would love to trade for Busch even if he ends up in LF or DH. A good bat that hasn’t been given a chance and still doesn’t project to this year. Seems like a good chance to power bat with control to the mix. What do we have that they would want? The team isn't really loaded with major talent. Devers, Casas, Bello. rest wouldn't even crack the Dodgers roster. Yeah, being a bit over the top, but you get the picture. we just don't have many pieces with much value in trade. That's irrelevant to what the Dodgers would be looking at as they need to clear a spot on their 40 man roster now, they in turn wouldn't want back anyone who would have to be added to their 40 man. They'd probably be okay with a lotto ticket in low A in a theoretical deal to clear a spot.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,903
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Post by nomar on Dec 22, 2023 13:42:49 GMT -5
I’m not sure where you’d put him this second, but I would love to trade for Busch even if he ends up in LF or DH. A good bat that hasn’t been given a chance and still doesn’t project to this year. Seems like a good chance to power bat with control to the mix. What do we have that they would want? The team isn't really loaded with major talent. Devers, Casas, Bello. rest wouldn't even crack the Dodgers roster. Yeah, being a bit over the top, but you get the picture. we just don't have many pieces with much value in trade. Well considering that they’d be looking to make room on their 40 man I don’t think they’d want a major leaguer anyway Vargas would interest me too, especially if they think he can improve defensively at 2B.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 22, 2023 14:24:39 GMT -5
Here is a list of the ten most successful Japanese-born starters in MLB history, by career bWAR (7.4 and up), plus Kodai Senga, who has only one year under his belt but it was a good one. At the bottom of the list are two successful American pitchers: Gerrit Cole, whose total contract value YY just matched and Tim Lincecum, who had a meteoric 4-year run, from ages 24-27, then fell off the map.
Name | Height | Weight | Yu Darvish
| 6'5" | 220 lbs.
| Hisashi Iwakuma
| 6'3" | 210 lbs.
| Hiroki Kuroda
| 6'1" | 205 lbs.
| Kenta Maeda | 6'1" | 185 lbs.
| Daisuke Matsuzaka
| 6'0" | 205 lbs.
| Hideo Nomo
| 6'2" | 210 lbs.
| Tomo Ohka
| 6'1" | 205 lbs.
| Shohei Ohtani
| 6'4" | 210 lbs.
| Kodai Senga
| 6'1" | 202 lbs.
| Masahiro Tanaka
| 6'3" | 218 lbs.
| Masato Yoshii
| 6'2" | 210 lbs.
| Gerrit Cole
| 6'4" | 220 lbs.
| Tim Lincecum
| 5'11" | 170 lbs.
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I find it really odd that the fact that YY is 5'10" and 175 lbs., was mentioned very rarely throughout the breathless reporting on teams bidding for him. "But he's Japanese, right? A lot of Japanese people are smaller. He's still an incredible pitcher!" Well, yes he is Japanese and he has been a great pitcher in Japan but he is undeniably small for a starting MLB pitcher. Look at all the Japanese starting pitchers who have been even marginally successful in MLB -- YY is much smaller than all of them. Being Japanese doesn't somehow mean you can be a successful undersized starting pitcher in MLB. It has basically never happened before. The skinniest Japanese guy on this list (who has 3" and 10 lbs., on YY) also happens to be one of the most injury prone.
What is the first thing people talk about when they evaluate young pitching prospects? How does his body project to fill out as an adult? Indeed, few smaller guys of any nationality become successful MLB starting pitchers. Lincecum was well documented as a unicorn in that regard and he pretty much burned out after four good seasons. If YY has two peak-Lincecum, CY seasons in 2024 and 2025, will that justify his 12-year megadeal?
Let's phrase that another way: What would you have said if the Giants gave Lincecum a 10-year, $250m extension after his second CY season, when he had just turned 25? Obviously they still had years of control on him but this YY chase is basically the equivalent of Lincecum becoming a FA at that point. Lincecum pitched 227 and 225.1 IP in those two seasons, taking the ball every fifth day. YY has never reached 194 IP and has never pitched every fifth day for a full season. And Lincecum was basically out of baseball 5 years later. I bet LAD really hope that the similarly sized YY holds up to a full MLB workload a lot better than Lincecum did because they're paying him more than almost any other pitcher of any size or nationality has ever been paid.
Or maybe YY is just the next Pedro -- you want to bank on that instead? I'd love to see a pic of their right hands, side-by-side...
The more I think about it, the more I think those grapes are sour...
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Post by tizzle on Dec 22, 2023 14:43:21 GMT -5
What do we have that they would want? The team isn't really loaded with major talent. Devers, Casas, Bello. rest wouldn't even crack the Dodgers roster. Yeah, being a bit over the top, but you get the picture. we just don't have many pieces with much value in trade. That's irrelevant to what the Dodgers would be looking at as they need to clear a spot on their 40 man roster now, they in turn wouldn't want back anyone who would have to be added to their 40 man. They'd probably be okay with a lotto ticket in low A in a theoretical deal to clear a spot. Unless you offered them a player for two of those guys. I have no idea who that would be or anything, just saying.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Dec 22, 2023 14:49:54 GMT -5
Bloom could have done as well.....
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 22, 2023 14:50:31 GMT -5
I'm not terribly disappointed, as I knew we were a big underdog. But signing YY would have been a huge step in a re-build that I think will have to be spread out over two, maybe three off-seasons. This would have checked the stud SP box, assuming this guy is the real deal. That'll be hard to do in next year's FA market when it'll be Corbin Burnes and not much else.
I envision the farm providing multiple starting position players starting in 2025, but they'll still need to acquire an impact RH bat, probably with a DH, and change out another position or two to unwind the extreme lefty heavy lineup.
So, how do they acquire a big-time SP? I'm not crazy about paying a big prospect price for one. I guess chasing Corbin Burnes might be the best way but he'll have a lot of suitors, including the same huge-market teams that were chasing YY.
We occasionally see a big-name FA left behind by the vagaries of the market or individual circumstances (Carlos Correa a couple of years ago, for instance, due to health issues.) I'm wondering whether Blake Snell will be that guy this year. He might have to settle for less money and fewer years than expected. That would make him a good target.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2023 15:01:39 GMT -5
I'm not terribly disappointed, as I knew we were a big underdog. But signing YY would have been a huge step in a re-build that I think will have to be spread out over two, maybe three off-seasons. This would have checked the stud SP box, assuming this guy is the real deal. That'll be hard to do in next year's FA market when it'll be Corbin Burnes and not much else. I envision the farm providing multiple starting position players starting in 2025, but they'll still need to acquire an impact RH bat, probably with a DH, and change out another position or two to unwind the extreme lefty heavy lineup. So, how do they acquire a big-time SP? I'm not crazy about paying a big prospect price for one. I guess chasing Corbin Burnes might be the best way but he'll have a lot of suitors, including the same huge-market teams that were chasing YY. We occasionally see a big-name FA left behind by the vagueies of the market or individual circumstances (Carlos Correa a couple of years ago, for instance, due to health issues.) I'm wondering whether Blake Snell will be that guy this year. He might have to settle for less money and fewer years than expected. That would make hinm a good target. Left behind by the vagueries of the market... or by Boras' self-interested approach to negotiations? (He benefits with his high-risk approach because the risk is spread across his many clients; but the individual clients who catch the business end of that risk do not.)
As coincidence would have it, both Snell and Bellinger are reported to be seeking $200 million, which is way above most projections; and both are Boras clients.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,196
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Post by cdj on Dec 22, 2023 16:12:17 GMT -5
Here is a list of the ten most successful Japanese-born starters in MLB history, by career bWAR (7.4 and up), plus Kodai Senga, who has only one year under his belt but it was a good one. At the bottom of the list are two successful American pitchers: Gerrit Cole, whose total contract value YY just matched and Tim Lincecum, who had a meteoric 4-year run, from ages 24-27, then fell off the map.
Name | Height | Weight | Yu Darvish
| 6'5" | 220 lbs.
| Hisashi Iwakuma
| 6'3" | 210 lbs.
| Hiroki Kuroda
| 6'1" | 205 lbs.
| Kenta Maeda | 6'1" | 185 lbs.
| Daisuke Matsuzaka
| 6'0" | 205 lbs.
| Hideo Nomo
| 6'2" | 210 lbs.
| Tomo Ohka
| 6'1" | 205 lbs.
| Shohei Ohtani
| 6'4" | 210 lbs.
| Kodai Senga
| 6'1" | 202 lbs.
| Masahiro Tanaka
| 6'3" | 218 lbs.
| Masato Yoshii
| 6'2" | 210 lbs.
| Gerrit Cole
| 6'4" | 220 lbs.
| Tim Lincecum
| 5'11" | 170 lbs.
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I find it really odd that the fact that YY is 5'10" and 175 lbs., was mentioned very rarely throughout the breathless reporting on teams bidding for him. "But he's Japanese, right? A lot of Japanese people are smaller. He's still an incredible pitcher!" Well, yes he is Japanese and he has been a great pitcher in Japan but he is undeniably small for a starting MLB pitcher. Look at all the Japanese starting pitchers who have been even marginally successful in MLB -- YY is much smaller than all of them. Being Japanese doesn't somehow mean you can be a successful undersized starting pitcher in MLB. It has basically never happened before. The skinniest Japanese guy on this list (who has 3" and 10 lbs., on YY) also happens to be one of the most injury prone.
What is the first thing people talk about when they evaluate young pitching prospects? How does his body project to fill out as an adult? Indeed, few smaller guys of any nationality become successful MLB starting pitchers. Lincecum was well documented as a unicorn in that regard and he pretty much burned out after four good seasons. If YY has two peak-Lincecum, CY seasons in 2024 and 2025, will that justify his 12-year megadeal?
Let's phrase that another way: What would you have said if the Giants gave Lincecum a 10-year, $250m extension after his second CY season, when he had just turned 25? Obviously they still had years of control on him but this YY chase is basically the equivalent of Lincecum becoming a FA at that point. Lincecum pitched 227 and 225.1 IP in those two seasons, taking the ball every fifth day. YY has never reached 194 IP and has never pitched every fifth day for a full season. And Lincecum was basically out of baseball 5 years later. I bet LAD really hope that the similarly sized YY holds up to a full MLB workload a lot better than Lincecum did because they're paying him more than almost any other pitcher of any size or nationality has ever been paid.
Or maybe YY is just the next Pedro -- you want to bank on that instead? I'd love to see a pic of their right hands, side-by-side...
The more I think about it, the more I think those grapes are sour...
Fascinating stuff to think about, thx for the post Wouldn’t shock me to see him burn out relatively early. At the same time he does seem to keep himself in fantastic shape and I’m sure he’ll be very good to start the contract
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 22, 2023 16:27:18 GMT -5
I'm not terribly disappointed, as I knew we were a big underdog. But signing YY would have been a huge step in a re-build that I think will have to be spread out over two, maybe three off-seasons. This would have checked the stud SP box, assuming this guy is the real deal. That'll be hard to do in next year's FA market when it'll be Corbin Burnes and not much else. I envision the farm providing multiple starting position players starting in 2025, but they'll still need to acquire an impact RH bat, probably with a DH, and change out another position or two to unwind the extreme lefty heavy lineup. So, how do they acquire a big-time SP? I'm not crazy about paying a big prospect price for one. I guess chasing Corbin Burnes might be the best way but he'll have a lot of suitors, including the same huge-market teams that were chasing YY. We occasionally see a big-name FA left behind by the vagueies of the market or individual circumstances (Carlos Correa a couple of years ago, for instance, due to health issues.) I'm wondering whether Blake Snell will be that guy this year. He might have to settle for less money and fewer years than expected. That would make hinm a good target. Left behind by the vagueries of the market... or by Boras' self-interested approach to negotiations? (He benefits with his high-risk approach because the risk is spread across his many clients; but the individual clients who catch the business end of that risk do not.)
As coincidence would have it, both Snell and Bellinger are reported to be seeking $200 million, which is way above most projections; and both are Boras clients.
It would help if I could type properly - vagaries. Agree totally on the Boras approach. But there are instances through the years of other players coming in below the projections. I think those numbers are nuts for Snell and Bellinger, which isn't to say that one or both of them won't get the $200M. But if interest in Snell is more lukewarm than even rational people expect (not you, Boras), I wouldn't mind pouncing. If the price is $200M or anywhere near that for Snell, I'd treat him like a live grenade and run in the other direction.
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ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,376
Member is Online
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 22, 2023 16:32:50 GMT -5
Left behind by the vagueries of the market... or by Boras' self-interested approach to negotiations? (He benefits with his high-risk approach because the risk is spread across his many clients; but the individual clients who catch the business end of that risk do not.)
As coincidence would have it, both Snell and Bellinger are reported to be seeking $200 million, which is way above most projections; and both are Boras clients.
It would help if I could type properly - vagaries. Agree totally on the Boras approach. But there are instances through the years of other players coming in below the projections. I think those numbers are nuts for Snell and Bellinger, which isn't to say that one or both of them won't get the $200M. But if interest in Snell is more lukewarm than even rational people expect (not you, Boras), I wouldn't mind pouncing. If the price is $200M or anywhere near that for Snell, I'd treat him like a live grenade and run in the other direction.I read that the Angels are interested in Snell and well the Angels are not very well run to put it nicely so I really would not be surprised to see him go there on some bloated contract and become the next in line of crappy Angels contracts right up there with Rendon, Pujols and Josh Hamilton. I don't really want Bellinger either way but with the Giants signing Jung-Hoo Lee, the Yankees trading for Soto and Verdugo I don't know what his market is looking like right now seeing how those were two of the teams most linked to him when the offseason started. It's hard to picture him getting to that $200M number.
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Post by majikthise on Dec 22, 2023 19:15:48 GMT -5
That's irrelevant to what the Dodgers would be looking at as they need to clear a spot on their 40 man roster now, they in turn wouldn't want back anyone who would have to be added to their 40 man. They'd probably be okay with a lotto ticket in low A in a theoretical deal to clear a spot. Unless you offered them a player for two of those guys. I have no idea who that would be or anything, just saying. I'm just frustrated at how far the team has fallen in terms of talent. I look at it and it's nowhere near contending for a playoff spot. Still time to figure it out. I guess trading for Bieber and signing Giolito to a pillow contract along with taking a flier on a 2-year deal for Woodruff. Not really enamored with Snell for the length of the deal he will likely get. Any other options?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 22, 2023 19:20:08 GMT -5
So has there been no reporting confirming or disconfirming whether the Red Sox in fact made a $300 million offer? It would be nice to know. I feel like the team is tight-lipped to a fault. For one thing, I'd just be curious as a fan to know what they're thinking every now and again. For another thing, they're not doing themselves any favors in regards to the dumb narrative about their unwillingness to spend by not letting the world know when they *are* willing to spend. Well, there were three different people reporting it before the signing. Today Robert Murray seemed to think the Red Sox were not as involved as even the Phillies were.
Given that YY seemed intent on going to the Dodgers and was just fishing for offers to force them to match, you would think the Red Sox would've been part of this game if they had a real $300 million offer
So they didn't even make an offer? I'm not sure I believe that. If so...that sucks
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 22, 2023 22:46:32 GMT -5
Here is a list of the ten most successful Japanese-born starters in MLB history, by career bWAR (7.4 and up), plus Kodai Senga, who has only one year under his belt but it was a good one. At the bottom of the list are two successful American pitchers: Gerrit Cole, whose total contract value YY just matched and Tim Lincecum, who had a meteoric 4-year run, from ages 24-27, then fell off the map.
Name | Height | Weight | Yu Darvish
| 6'5" | 220 lbs.
| Hisashi Iwakuma
| 6'3" | 210 lbs.
| Hiroki Kuroda
| 6'1" | 205 lbs.
| Kenta Maeda | 6'1" | 185 lbs.
| Daisuke Matsuzaka
| 6'0" | 205 lbs.
| Hideo Nomo
| 6'2" | 210 lbs.
| Tomo Ohka
| 6'1" | 205 lbs.
| Shohei Ohtani
| 6'4" | 210 lbs.
| Kodai Senga
| 6'1" | 202 lbs.
| Masahiro Tanaka
| 6'3" | 218 lbs.
| Masato Yoshii
| 6'2" | 210 lbs.
| Gerrit Cole
| 6'4" | 220 lbs.
| Tim Lincecum
| 5'11" | 170 lbs.
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I find it really odd that the fact that YY is 5'10" and 175 lbs., was mentioned very rarely throughout the breathless reporting on teams bidding for him. "But he's Japanese, right? A lot of Japanese people are smaller. He's still an incredible pitcher!" Well, yes he is Japanese and he has been a great pitcher in Japan but he is undeniably small for a starting MLB pitcher. Look at all the Japanese starting pitchers who have been even marginally successful in MLB -- YY is much smaller than all of them. Being Japanese doesn't somehow mean you can be a successful undersized starting pitcher in MLB. It has basically never happened before. The skinniest Japanese guy on this list (who has 3" and 10 lbs., on YY) also happens to be one of the most injury prone.
What is the first thing people talk about when they evaluate young pitching prospects? How does his body project to fill out as an adult? Indeed, few smaller guys of any nationality become successful MLB starting pitchers. Lincecum was well documented as a unicorn in that regard and he pretty much burned out after four good seasons. If YY has two peak-Lincecum, CY seasons in 2024 and 2025, will that justify his 12-year megadeal?
Let's phrase that another way: What would you have said if the Giants gave Lincecum a 10-year, $250m extension after his second CY season, when he had just turned 25? Obviously they still had years of control on him but this YY chase is basically the equivalent of Lincecum becoming a FA at that point. Lincecum pitched 227 and 225.1 IP in those two seasons, taking the ball every fifth day. YY has never reached 194 IP and has never pitched every fifth day for a full season. And Lincecum was basically out of baseball 5 years later. I bet LAD really hope that the similarly sized YY holds up to a full MLB workload a lot better than Lincecum did because they're paying him more than almost any other pitcher of any size or nationality has ever been paid.
Or maybe YY is just the next Pedro -- you want to bank on that instead? I'd love to see a pic of their right hands, side-by-side...
The more I think about it, the more I think those grapes are sour...
Fascinating stuff to think about, thx for the post Wouldn’t shock me to see him burn out relatively early. At the same time he does seem to keep himself in fantastic shape and I’m sure he’ll be very good to start the contract Thanks. What I'm going to be looking at is the little injuries that mess with YY's mechanics. Lincecum was famous as a mechanics unicorn, in particular, which you kind of have to be if you're an undersized power pitcher. As his career progressed, the nagging injuries started to pile up and the production went way south. How long will it take for the new workload start to wear on YY? I wonder if they'll even try to get him 30 starts in a season.
The other thing I'll be watching is what happens to YY's mistakes. The NPB has a lot more Punch-and-Judy, slap-and-run hitters than the MLB. Make a mistake over there and it might turn into a hard line drive to the LF. Over here it turns into a jog.
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