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Let's make a deal! Building a Yamamoto contract
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Post by patford on Dec 23, 2023 0:03:10 GMT -5
The outcome gives me a lot of pleasure based on seeing the Yankees grovel, wriggle on their bellies like worms and then come up empty.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2023 2:16:19 GMT -5
So does that mean they didn't make a competitive offer? Why can reporters not be clear about this? Or am I missing something?
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Post by congusgambler33 on Dec 23, 2023 3:43:51 GMT -5
All I know is it is exciting scraping the barrells for hope to get the job done type of players. We have become very proficient these days in that respect. Oh wait..We did get Tyler O'neill and that was quite a splash or is it more in the hope to get it done guys.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2023 9:23:43 GMT -5
So does that mean they didn't make a competitive offer? Why can reporters not be clear about this? Or am I missing something?
If McCaffrey is implying the Sox werent willing to make a legit offer, I'll be pretty pissed off at them. If you try to make a "logic, calculated" bid in the scenario we saw unfolding you're simply not going to get the free agent or you'll finish 3rd for every free agent as Andrew Friedman has said. I'm refraining from judgment for the moment because I think at some point the real sincerity of the zspx pursuit will come out. It usually does after the fact while often there is confusion and misdirection while things are going on. Either I'll be left with the feeling that the Sox were sincere, put their best foot forward, did the best anybody could reasonably do, and the player simply chose to go elsewhere, which would then make me wish that Boston was the must go to place that it used to be but no longer is, but that certainly wouldnt be the fault of an incoming PoBO like Breslow. Or perhaps the Sox werent willing to go to 300 plus million when it was damn obvious to be in this poker hand you were going to have to do so, be willing to commit a decade and 300 plus million to a rare ace caliber 25 year old free agent pitcher. If that's the case, if be pretty pissed off at them. The biggest asset you can acquire is young ace caliber pitching. It would tell me where far from the days when the Sox were truly in on the impact players. I do worry that the Sox are now just one of Henry's vast portfolio and not the crown jewel they use to be regarded as. Sometimes I swear that John Henry overreacted to the 2019 season and has it in his head that the Sox brass will simply be so much smarter than all the other ivy league front offices theyll win. Without having to swim in the deep end of the talent pool. All I know is the fans that spent money to go to winterfest booed the crap out of Bloom and the brass. The Red Sox fans who go to games disguised as empty seats in Aug and Sept once it was obvious the team was going nowhere. The population that filled Fenway were a number of fans from the opposing team. I'd guess ratings were down at NESN as well. This is the recourse of how fans express their displeasure with the Sox brass. I'm not talking about hot air on WEEI but measurable acts seen in the numbers. I do find it amazing that the Sox are such an afterthought on sports talk radio even given how pathetic the Patriots are, which makes me question what has happened to the Red Sox brand within baseball and outside of it. I get that a lot of us diehards dont want casual fans around but turning the Sox into a niche hasn't really served the team well either. It's not showing up in the standings over most of the past 5 seasons as for the most part the Sox have been also rans, devoid of compelling star power that makes you watch. It lowers the passions of the whole of the fanbases. I'm in it win or lose, but it's hard getting my son to want to watch. Why should he? They're not compelling. We will see a lot more of this if the latter scenario is the tact the Sox take. I will await to see what comes out in the near future. I do suspect it'll come out. We'll see if Mccafrey is just a blip or a growing chorus.
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Post by Canseco on Dec 23, 2023 9:38:16 GMT -5
Is it possible our front office didn’t want to go past a certain dollar figure because they want to gear up for a future run at Roki Sasaki?
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 23, 2023 9:38:22 GMT -5
So does that mean they didn't make a competitive offer? Why can reporters not be clear about this? Or am I missing something?
I might be off but it reads to me like the same stuff fans are saying on Twitter. Basically saying if the Red Sox were serious they would have offered way more than other teams.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 23, 2023 9:40:05 GMT -5
Is it possible our front office didn’t want to go past a certain dollar figure because they want to gear up for a future run at Roki Sasaki? If the Sasaki reports are real he’s only going to get international bonus pool money. Though, particularly after the Yamamoto deal, I’m skeptical he actually will post before he’s 25.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 23, 2023 9:43:58 GMT -5
Is it possible our front office didn’t want to go past a certain dollar figure because they want to gear up for a future run at Roki Sasaki? If the Sasaki reports are real he’s only going to get international bonus pool money. Though, particularly after the Yamamoto deal, I’m skeptical he actually will post before he’s 25. I'm skeptical as well. His Japanese team would get a very small percentage of what they could get for the posting fee if they just wait till he's not subject to the international bonus pool. Noway they're sitting here seeing what YY got his Japanese team in the posting fee and thinking it makes much sense to post him too early.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 23, 2023 9:44:11 GMT -5
In the end we didn’t get him, also we lost the fact that this has huge blow up potential. He hasn’t pitched in the mlb yet
This is an albatross contract if he is a number 3 starter (which is a resounding success in terms of Japanese SPs coming over)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2023 9:49:25 GMT -5
So does that mean they didn't make a competitive offer? Why can reporters not be clear about this? Or am I missing something?
I might be off but it reads to me like the same stuff fans are saying on Twitter. Basically saying if the Red Sox were serious they would have offered way more than other teams. Or they would have offered him competitive money. I mean at some point we kind of got the sense that 300 million gets you in the game. That's how I took it as, not the having to blow away the field kind of thing. If the Sox offered say 8 years 240 million then they were unsurprisingly never in the game. All of this is kind of ambiguous right now. Hopefully soon we will know for sure what was really meant and we wont get the riddles.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 23, 2023 9:55:07 GMT -5
I might be off but it reads to me like the same stuff fans are saying on Twitter. Basically saying if the Red Sox were serious they would have offered way more than other teams. Or they would have offered him competitive money. I mean at some point we kind of got the sense that 300 million gets you in the game. That's how I took it as, not the having to blow away the field kind of thing. If the Sox offered say 8 years 240 million then they were unsurprisingly never in the game. All of this is kind of ambiguous right now. Hopefully soon we will know for sure what was really meant and we wont get the riddles. We had multiple reports saying they did offer $300m
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 23, 2023 9:55:41 GMT -5
If the Sasaki reports are real he’s only going to get international bonus pool money. Though, particularly after the Yamamoto deal, I’m skeptical he actually will post before he’s 25. I'm skeptical as well. His Japanese team would get a very small percentage of what they could get for the posting fee if they just wait till he's not subject to the international bonus pool. Noway they're sitting here seeing what YY got his Japanese team in the posting fee and thinking it makes much sense to post him too early. He supposedly has a clause like Ohtani allowing him to opt out whenever he wants
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 23, 2023 10:01:23 GMT -5
So does that mean they didn't make a competitive offer? Why can reporters not be clear about this? Or am I missing something?
But would they have though? As noted upthread, Yamamoto is undersized for an MLB pitcher and there have to be serious concerns about the longevity of his effectiveness the level of which has yet to be determined in the Show. If he proves to have the 4 year window of a Lincecum (and it's by no means certain he can achieve that level of success) that implies there is only a 2 and maybe 3 year window where the Sox' up and comers will arrive/mature into true solid major leaguers after which the team could be saddled with a very expensive severely underperforming "ace". The timing suggests that they might be better served waiting for Roki Sasaki to post by which time they will have (hopefully) solidified the team with the likes of Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Casa, Bello etc. Not saying they shouldn't have tried to land Yamamoto, but to believe that he was THE missing piece to put them over the top for years to come is a good bit of wish casting.
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Post by jbuttah on Dec 23, 2023 10:05:37 GMT -5
Or they would have offered him competitive money. I mean at some point we kind of got the sense that 300 million gets you in the game. That's how I took it as, not the having to blow away the field kind of thing. If the Sox offered say 8 years 240 million then they were unsurprisingly never in the game. All of this is kind of ambiguous right now. Hopefully soon we will know for sure what was really meant and we wont get the riddles. We had multiple reports saying they did offer $300m Competing against the Dodgers, Giants, Yanks and Mets, I didn't think the odds of the Sox signing Yamamoto were that high. I'm a little weary of signing a guy 5'10, 175lbs to a 300mm contract. Somebody compared him to Tim Lincecum and that seems like a fair comparison. Overall, I'm not too upset that Yamamoto signed elsewhere as I don't think the Sox are just one piece away from being serious WS contenders.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2023 10:08:48 GMT -5
Or they would have offered him competitive money. I mean at some point we kind of got the sense that 300 million gets you in the game. That's how I took it as, not the having to blow away the field kind of thing. If the Sox offered say 8 years 240 million then they were unsurprisingly never in the game. All of this is kind of ambiguous right now. Hopefully soon we will know for sure what was really meant and we wont get the riddles. We had multiple reports saying they did offer $300m That's what I'm saying. We're being told they did offer big money. Now were getting hints that they didnt offer big money, that they didnt want to leave their comfort zone and they were never really big players for YY. Well, which is it? I think clarity will come on this issue within the next month or so. Eventually things do get out.
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Post by manfred on Dec 23, 2023 10:36:50 GMT -5
Sox should sign Kershaw as revenge.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2023 10:52:15 GMT -5
So does that mean they didn't make a competitive offer? Why can reporters not be clear about this? Or am I missing something?
But would they have though? As noted upthread, Yamamoto is undersized for an MLB pitcher and there have to be serious concerns about the longevity of his effectiveness the level of which has yet to be determined in the Show. If he proves to have the 4 year window of a Lincecum (and it's by no means certain he can achieve that level of success) that implies there is only a 2 and maybe 3 year window where the Sox' up and comers will arrive/mature into true solid major leaguers after which the team could be saddled with a very expensive severely underperforming "ace". The timing suggests that they might be better served waiting for Roki Sasaki to post by which time they will have (hopefully) solidified the team with the likes of Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Casa, Bello etc. Not saying they shouldn't have tried to land Yamamoto, but to believe that he was THE missing piece to put them over the top for years to come is a good bit of wish casting. What I think is
1) He was clearly their top priority for the offseason, the projections say that the winning bid for him was very reasonable, and if the Red Sox were serious about their "full throttle" offseason then they really should have offered him $300 million+.
2) I think they probably did do that? Several reports said they did, and the only hints that they didn't are coming from reporters who are writing these meta-narrative articles about what it "shows" about the Red Sox organization that they didn't sign him, full of innuendo but bare of facts.
3) They were, after all, one of the seven finalists for him, so presumably they were making some sort of serious overture to him.
4) But if they didn't make any offer to him at all, it might just mean that they figured out the game before the New York teams did: that Yamamoto was just leveraging bids to get the best possible contract from the Dodgers.
5) The Athletic could really use some better editors.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 23, 2023 12:44:01 GMT -5
Didn't Andrew Friedman (or was it D-Dom) say that to land top FAs you have to be willing to offer a deal that makes you uncomfortable? And that if you offer what you consider to be fair value, you're going to finish third for every player? I think we'd all agree with that sentiment. From all the reports we've gotten, it's clear the Red Sox weren't willing to make a killer offer here.
I can easily see the same thing playing out with Monty and Snell. That may be a good thing because the reality is the Red Sox are not at the optimal point in their rebuild for signing big FAs. That'll come next off-season at the earliest and more likely after the 2025 season, just as a wave of talent is starting to make an impact.
All that said, YY would have been a nice signing this off-season. At his age, he'd still be in his prime when the Next Great Red Sox Team is taking shape (assuming, of course, that he's the real thing and stays healthy).
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2023 12:54:51 GMT -5
Didn't Andrew Friedman (or was it D-Dom) say that to land top FAs you have to be willing to offer a deal that makes you uncomfortable? And that if you offer what you consider to be fair value, you're going to finish third for every player? I think we'd all agree with that sentiment. From all the reports we've gotten, it's clear the Red Sox weren't willing to make a killer offer here. I can easily see the same thing playing out with Monty and Snell. That may be a good thing because the reality is the Red Sox are not at the optimal point in their rebuild for signing big FAs. That'll come next off-season at the earliest and more likely after the 2025 season, just as a wave of talent is starting to make an impact. All that said, YY would have been a nice signing this off-season. At his age, he'd still be in his prime when the Next Great Red Sox Team is taking shape (assuming, of course, that he's the real thing and stays healthy). Can you share a link to those reports, please? Because all I've seen is some reports that they offered $300 million, and then some mushy innuendo that might be taken as contradicting those reports but is too vague to say for sure.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 23, 2023 13:11:21 GMT -5
Didn't Andrew Friedman (or was it D-Dom) say that to land top FAs you have to be willing to offer a deal that makes you uncomfortable? And that if you offer what you consider to be fair value, you're going to finish third for every player? I think we'd all agree with that sentiment. From all the reports we've gotten, it's clear the Red Sox weren't willing to make a killer offer here. I can easily see the same thing playing out with Monty and Snell. That may be a good thing because the reality is the Red Sox are not at the optimal point in their rebuild for signing big FAs. That'll come next off-season at the earliest and more likely after the 2025 season, just as a wave of talent is starting to make an impact. All that said, YY would have been a nice signing this off-season. At his age, he'd still be in his prime when the Next Great Red Sox Team is taking shape (assuming, of course, that he's the real thing and stays healthy). Can you share a link to those reports, please? Because all I've seen is some reports that they offered $300 million, and then some mushy innuendo that might be taken as contradicting those reports but is too vague to say for sure. I'm basing my comment on the same stories you've seen - the ones that said they offered $300M. Even if we take those as true and ignore the ones that say they may not have been in the game at all, they still didn't make an offer to blow away the field. Look, I'm not ripping them for this. I still believe in CB2. It'll take a lot more than one non-signing of a FA to make me give up on him. And while I would have liked to land YY, I hear the points others are making about his size and zero track record in MLB. My point was that if the LAD got him for $325M and the Red Sox offered $300M, then the Red Sox came up short the way the Friedman or D-Dom quote says will happen unless you make an offer that has you reaching for the Pepto-Bismol. We may be happy about that in 2027. Or we may be terribly disappointed.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2023 13:23:39 GMT -5
Can you share a link to those reports, please? Because all I've seen is some reports that they offered $300 million, and then some mushy innuendo that might be taken as contradicting those reports but is too vague to say for sure. I'm basing my comment on the same stories you've seen - the ones that said they offered $300M. Even if we take those as true and ignore the ones that say they may not have been in the game at all, they still didn't make an offer to blow away the field. Look, I'm not ripping them for this. I still believe in CB2. It'll take a lot more than one non-signing of a FA to make me give up on him. And while I would have liked to land YY, I hear the points others are making about his size and zero track record in MLB. My point was that if the LAD got him for $325M and the Red Sox offered $300M or thereabouts, then the Red Sox didn't came up way short jut the way the Friedman or D-Dom quote says will happen if you don't make an offer that has you reaching for the Pepto-Bismol. We may be happy about that in 2027. Or we may be terribly disappointed. I see. I guess I consider their going $100 million over the early higher-bound estimates of what he'd sign for to be a vigorous enough effort. And to an extent maybe I disagree with the view you're ascribing to Friedman and Dombrowski - one or two guys a year might get the Bogaerts treatment, a contract way above any initial projections, but most guys end up pretty close. Of course I also disagree with the consensus that the Red Sox' biggest problem lately has been a failure to spend huge gobs of money on star free agents.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2023 13:35:52 GMT -5
It seems likely that YY knew where he was going to go before he even started negotiating and everyone knew that. If it was money, Cohen wouldn't have been outbid.
Imagine how much Dodger gear is about to be shipped from Thailand to Japan.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 23, 2023 13:36:22 GMT -5
So does that mean they didn't make a competitive offer? Why can reporters not be clear about this? Or am I missing something?
I might be off but it reads to me like the same stuff fans are saying on Twitter. Basically saying if the Red Sox were serious they would have offered way more than other teams. When a teams rep takes a hit or already has one and playing there is not as desirable as it once was, or so it appears to be the case here to me, then you have to do an overpay to land at least one or two stars. I've seen it happen with many franchises over the years.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 23, 2023 13:45:04 GMT -5
I'm basing my comment on the same stories you've seen - the ones that said they offered $300M. Even if we take those as true and ignore the ones that say they may not have been in the game at all, they still didn't make an offer to blow away the field. Look, I'm not ripping them for this. I still believe in CB2. It'll take a lot more than one non-signing of a FA to make me give up on him. And while I would have liked to land YY, I hear the points others are making about his size and zero track record in MLB. My point was that if the LAD got him for $325M and the Red Sox offered $300M or thereabouts, then the Red Sox didn't came up way short jut the way the Friedman or D-Dom quote says will happen if you don't make an offer that has you reaching for the Pepto-Bismol. We may be happy about that in 2027. Or we may be terribly disappointed. I see. I guess I consider their going $100 million over the early higher-bound estimates of what he'd sign for to be a vigorous enough effort. And to an extent maybe I disagree with the view you're ascribing to Friedman and Dombrowski - one or two guys a year might get the Bogaerts treatment, a contract way above any initial projections, but most guys end up pretty close. Of course I also disagree with the consensus that the Red Sox' biggest problem lately has been a failure to spend huge gobs of money on star free agents. I agree with a lot of this, particuarly the part about not spending gobs of money. In fact, I wish they hadn't signed Yoshi and Story. That's not a second guess. There were legitimate reasons to wonder about the wisdom of those contracts as soon as they were signed. Story had health questions and Yoshi's defense was reportedly bad to the point where it seemed like it would offset whatever offensive value he brought. Those contracts combined will make it harder to sign the stud guys they'll need to complement low-salaried Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Baby Raffy, Bello and Casas when the time is right. On the bolded, I'm just not sure, man. Without looking at any data, my impression every off-season is that as the FA process plays out the price on guys goes up and up well past the projections, particularly for the top guys. In our exchange here, we've discussed two right off the top of our heads - X and YY. And of course, the Ohtani numbers blew everybody's mind. I expect Montgomery, Bellinger and possibly Snell to get deals that have us shaking our heads. I mean Bellinger was -1.7 and 1.2 B-Ref WAR in the two years before a nice season in '23. But he'll probably get a deal that puts too much weight on his '23 and not enough on the fact that he was almost out of the sport not that long ago.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 23, 2023 13:47:43 GMT -5
It seems likely that YY knew where he was going to go before he even started negotiating and everyone knew that. If it was money, Cohen wouldn't have been outbid. Imagine how much Dodger gear is about to be shipped from Thailand to Japan. The Dodgers wil certainly cash in on SO, particulary since he basically gave them a massive loan. But I'm pretty sure the money for shirts, etc. gets split up with the union and the other teams.
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