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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 21, 2024 11:12:17 GMT -5
I got no interest in having Lorenzen on the roster. I'd rather start Winckowski if we had to win a game, and considering the five years of control I'd rather give Criswell a chance to start games too. With the modern handling of starters and bullpen options they'll need probably need more than Criswell and Wincowski. I don't love the idea of Walter getting a lot of innings or Gambrell, Fitts and Gonzalez getting put into roles they're not ready to hold. Not to mention that Criswell is just another guy on the roster and he’s shown exactly ZERO as a Major Leaguer to date. Lorenzen, meanwhile, has had several really strong campaigns and would have cost nothing(in baseball terms). I’m shocked that he was signed for so cheap and that the Sox didn’t try and get him at that reduced cost.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 21, 2024 11:52:53 GMT -5
I thoroughly reject that signing guys automatically adds wins/value. Lorenzen had a decent year with the Tigers prior to getting traded, but he was still striking out 2 fewer guys per 9 from the last two years he was actually good (2019/2020). And the numbers with Philly were the worst of his career. So we should have signed a guy who a) doesn't strike guys out any more and b) walks way too many guys? It's like none of you actually listen to what Breslow and Bailey say about what they are looking for with pitchers.
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Mar 21, 2024 12:05:22 GMT -5
Weird. I had no idea "Cooper Criswell" was pronounced "ahl-stawrr."
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 21, 2024 12:24:21 GMT -5
I thoroughly reject that signing guys automatically adds wins/value. Lorenzen had a decent year with the Tigers prior to getting traded, but he was still striking out 2 fewer guys per 9 from the last two years he was actually good (2019/2020). And the numbers with Philly were the worst of his career. So we should have signed a guy who a) doesn't strike guys out any more and b) walks way too many guys? It's like none of you actually listen to what Breslow and Bailey say about what they are looking for with pitchers. I want depth but also see Lorenzen as a jag. I wouldn’t be surprised if Criswell was as good or better. I also wouldn’t want to bump any of the young guys from the rotation for him. But I still have no faith in this staff staying healthy enough to make it through the summer.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2024 12:28:22 GMT -5
I can buy that Lorenzen is not an upgrade over Criswell. I can't really buy that *no one* on the free agent was an affordable upgrade over Criswell. I also am not looking forward to what happens when the team needs to reach further down the depth chart than Criswell.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 21, 2024 12:36:41 GMT -5
I can buy that Lorenzen is not an upgrade over Criswell. I can't really buy that *no one* on the free agent was an affordable upgrade over Criswell. I also am not looking forward to what happens when the team needs to reach further down the depth chart than Criswell. Who are the guys they could have signed to a minor league deal that are clearly better than Criswell? I don't think that's a very long list.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2024 12:42:08 GMT -5
I can buy that Lorenzen is not an upgrade over Criswell. I can't really buy that *no one* on the free agent was an affordable upgrade over Criswell. I also am not looking forward to what happens when the team needs to reach further down the depth chart than Criswell.This is my line of thinking with wanting a guy like Lorenzen. Is he a sure thing to be better than Criswell or Winckowski? Nope he is not. However I would say he would almost certainly be better than the next SP option past those two which looks like Walter right now. Lorenzen has shown the ability to pitch in the rotation and out of the pen so it's not like he would have had to be shoe horned into the starting rotation. If they had signed another SP this offseason and/or were bumping up near the LT I'd probably be thinking whatever don't spend the money and roll with what they have. However they are way under the LT right now for what seems to me no apparent reason. They could have added at least another one or two viable MLBer who could easily pay dividends to the end standings and stay under the LT. To me, to have not done so this offseason is just baffling and doesn't give me warm and fuzzy feelings about ownership right now. I guess sure at this point in the year one week from opening day, it's probably semi irrelevant to spend that money now. Maybe pick up one or two veterans who end up opting out after ST ends since they might have an extra 40 man slot or two and guys with options they could send down.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 21, 2024 12:47:17 GMT -5
MLB Career:
Michael Lorenzen, age 32 - 724 innings, 4.11 ERA, 4.32 FIP
Cooper Criswell, age 27 - 37.2 innings, 5.97 ERA, 4.94 FIP
As Breslow noted this morning, who a pitcher has been in the past is way less relevant once Opening Day starts and you're playing games. Criswell seems interesting in like a weird swing-man way that the Rays made a specialty of getting 80 innings, 4.50 ERA from - but he also isn't an established major league pitcher.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2024 12:52:25 GMT -5
I can buy that Lorenzen is not an upgrade over Criswell. I can't really buy that *no one* on the free agent was an affordable upgrade over Criswell. I also am not looking forward to what happens when the team needs to reach further down the depth chart than Criswell. Who are the guys they could have signed to a minor league deal that are clearly better than Criswell? I don't think that's a very long list. Who says it would have to be a minor league deal? I would have been willing to match the winning bids for Paxton, Imanaga, Maeda, Stroman, Junis, maybe one or two others. I'd be happy with a Montgomery or Clevinger signing too.
I mean, was anyone saying when they signed Giolito "wow, now they've got too many starting pitchers, what are they gonna do?" And now Giolito is out for the season.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 21, 2024 13:55:38 GMT -5
Who are the guys they could have signed to a minor league deal that are clearly better than Criswell? I don't think that's a very long list. Who says it would have to be a minor league deal? I would have been willing to match the winning bids for Paxton, Imanaga, Maeda, Stroman, Junis, maybe one or two others. I'd be happy with a Montgomery or Clevinger signing too.
I mean, was anyone saying when they signed Giolito "wow, now they've got too many starting pitchers, what are they gonna do?" And now Giolito is out for the season.
None of those guys replaces Criswell. Signing any of those guys means you never see if Whitlock or Houck or both turn into viable starting pitchers. That's the choice to be made - nothing to do with Criswell. And what team has 6-7 big league starting pitchers? None.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Mar 21, 2024 14:22:36 GMT -5
I love all these posts talking about how the Sox should have just matched/beaten offers that pitchers signed for with other teams that completely ignore context. Just go sign Imanaga! Ignore the fact that he obviously had his heart set on the Cubbies and spent three weeks in Chicago prior to signing there officially. Sign Stroman! Ignore the fact that he lobbied very publically to sign with the Yanks. Sign Paxton! Maybe he wasn't terribly interested in resigning with the Sox and was interested in chasing a ring with the Dodgers.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 21, 2024 14:27:35 GMT -5
I don't think Imanaga was destined for the Cubs. His agent was based out of Chicago so that's why he camped out therfe. They had the best offer and he waited until he was up against his posting deadline to sign with them.
I think we'll regret not getting him, although the fact that the bidding was so tepid makes you worry about how bad his shoulder is. I'll guess with perfect knowledge of how everything turned out, the Sox wish they had him right now too.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2024 14:34:45 GMT -5
I don't think Imanaga was destined for the Cubs. His agent was based out of Chicago so that's why he camped out therfe. They had the best offer and he waited until he was up against his posting deadline to sign with them. I think we'll regret not getting him, although the fact that the bidding was so tepid makes you worry about how bad his shoulder is. I'll guess with perfect knowledge of how everything turned out, the Sox wish they had him right now too.For whatever reason the Sox seemed to put all their eggs into the Yamamoto basket and once that went up in smoke they for whatever reason just didn't really pivot. I agree, I think had they had the knowledge that Yamamoto was never an actual realistic option for them as he wasn't going anywhere but LAD or maybe NYY they would have done things differently this offseason. Maybe that's go after Sonny Gray, maybe that's go after E-Rod, maybe that's Imanga but I do feel like they would have bolstered the rotation more than just Giolito who is now lost for the year anyway. They just didn't even do anything but kick the tires on E-Rod and Imanga, either one of those guys would have been good additions to the rotation. Perhaps I'm way off with that assumption though since an arguably better pitcher than those guys is staring them right in the face for what I would imagine wouldn't be that crazy of a contract at this point in the game in Montgomery and they're still just sitting on their hands.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 21, 2024 14:50:59 GMT -5
Alex Cora, roughly translated: OH HELL YEAH BABY GARRETT WHITLOCK IS A STARTER
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2024 14:58:41 GMT -5
I do think if Whitlock can stay healthy he can blossom into a viable mid rotation SP. I know that is a big if but he does seem to me to have the best stuff that would lend itself to being a starter out of any on the ML roster not named Bello or Pivetta. I like Houck too but his sample size is starting to get large enough to question whether or not he'll ever be able to go more than twice through a lineup without imploding almost every time.
Feels to me a sure thing at this point that the rotation will be Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck. I suppose maybe Criswell could get the nod over Houck but I envision them starting Criswill down in AAA to start to keep both Houck and Criswell stretched out.
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Post by itinerantherb on Mar 21, 2024 15:06:54 GMT -5
I don't think Imanaga was destined for the Cubs. His agent was based out of Chicago so that's why he camped out therfe. They had the best offer and he waited until he was up against his posting deadline to sign with them. I think we'll regret not getting him, although the fact that the bidding was so tepid makes you worry about how bad his shoulder is. I'll guess with perfect knowledge of how everything turned out, the Sox wish they had him right now too. For whatever reason the Sox seemed to put all their eggs into the Yamamoto basket and once that went up in smoke they for whatever reason just didn't really pivot. I agree, I think had they had the knowledge that Yamamoto was never an actual realistic option for them as he wasn't going anywhere but LAD or maybe NYY they would have done things differently this offseason. Maybe that's go after Sonny Gray, maybe that's go after E-Rod, maybe that's Imanga but I do feel like they would have bolstered the rotation more than just Giolito who is now lost for the year anyway. They just didn't even do anything but kick the tires on E-Rod and Imanga, either one of those guys would have been good additions to the rotation. Perhaps I'm way off with that assumption though since an arguably better pitcher than those guys is staring them right in the face for what I would imagine wouldn't be that crazy of a contract at this point in the game in Montgomery and they're still just sitting on their hands. He's 25 and everyone else is in their 30s, and they're building for the future. That's not to say that they shouldn't have signed a decent stopgap, though, because quality depth is definitely lacking. That said, I'm not going to be shocked if they announce on the 29th that they've signed Montgomery for 2 years / $46M with an opt out.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 21, 2024 15:09:04 GMT -5
I think with the benefit of hindsight, Breslow probably would’ve been more aggressive on Lugo and Imanaga. For most of the other guys, I think it’s a tougher match than a lot of people assume. Houck and Whitlock both have potential to blow up, but they also have more upside than basically all of those guys.
Houck, for all his warts, has been a decent starter throughout his career. If they can find the tweak or the new pitch that will help him 1) last longer and 2) get lefties out, he’s got the tools to be a very good starting pitcher. Whitlock hasn’t been as good in the rotation as Houck, but he’s got everything he needs to be a real-deal number 3. There’s a lot to work with there!
If they want to give those guys a real shot to stick in the rotation, it makes it tough to work things out with free agents. Are you going to guarantee Mike Clevinger or Kenta Maeda a spot in the rotation? If not, why would they sign when there’s a team that will give them that guarantee?
Enough has been made about the rotation needing more heft at the top rather than at the backend. If I had to guess, I’d say Montgomery demanding 7/175 and not coming down from that number has thrown a big wrench in their offseason plan. As much as he would help them this season, that’s just not the right deal for this team as it stands.
I guess this is the team we’re gonna get, for better or worse. On the one hand, that’s a good thing, because they have a lot of cheap, controllable talent that’s as good or better than what’s on the market. On the other hand, that’s frustrating because the team still has holes and they have a payroll that’s tens of millions of dollars below what we’re accustomed to, coming off of consecutive last place finishes. I do like the players they have, and I think this can be a fun season.
In the long run, how we feel about this stuff is gonna come down to how good the guys they have turn out to be, and what they end up doing with those savings in the coming years. If they have a decent year and spend on some more attractive options on the market next year, the narrative will turn around quickly. If they stink and it turns out this is the new normal, then they’ll have ended up intentionally tanking the value of one of the most valuable brands in professional sports, for whatever reason.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 21, 2024 15:11:01 GMT -5
I do think if Whitlock can stay healthy he can blossom into a viable mid rotation SP. I know that is a big if but he does seem to me to have the best stuff that would lend itself to being a starter out of any on the ML roster not named Bello or Pivetta. I like Houck too but his sample size is starting to get large enough to question whether or not he'll ever be able to go more than twice through a lineup without imploding almost every time. Feels to me a sure thing at this point that the rotation will be Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck. I suppose maybe Criswell could get the nod over Houck but I envision them starting Criswill down in AAA to start to keep both Houck and Criswell stretched out. Worth noting SoxProspects' projection for Whitlock circa June 2021 when he was almost no longer a prospect (and after we had already found out the Yankees had a made horrible, terrible mistake by not checking his Instagram...): "Potential mid-rotation starter or late-inning reliever. Has excelled in a bullpen role, but has the size and three-pitch mix that could work in a starting role. Improvement of changeup and increased velocity have raised his ceiling significantly since his selection in the Rule 5 Draft. Has shown the ability to adjust when hitters have made adjustments to him. Continued refinement of slider could help determine his eventual role with the organization." He now has two distinct sliders and a developing cutter, in addition to having gotten physically jacked over the winter.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2024 15:21:36 GMT -5
I do think if Whitlock can stay healthy he can blossom into a viable mid rotation SP. I know that is a big if but he does seem to me to have the best stuff that would lend itself to being a starter out of any on the ML roster not named Bello or Pivetta. I like Houck too but his sample size is starting to get large enough to question whether or not he'll ever be able to go more than twice through a lineup without imploding almost every time. Feels to me a sure thing at this point that the rotation will be Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck. I suppose maybe Criswell could get the nod over Houck but I envision them starting Criswill down in AAA to start to keep both Houck and Criswell stretched out. Worth noting SoxProspects' projection for Whitlock circa June 2021 when he was almost no longer a prospect (and after we had already found out the Yankees had a made horrible, terrible mistake by not checking his Instagram...): "Potential mid-rotation starter or late-inning reliever. Has excelled in a bullpen role, but has the size and three-pitch mix that could work in a starting role. Improvement of changeup and increased velocity have raised his ceiling significantly since his selection in the Rule 5 Draft. Has shown the ability to adjust when hitters have made adjustments to him. Continued refinement of slider could help determine his eventual role with the organization." He now has two distinct sliders and a developing cutter, in addition to having gotten physically jacked over the winter. Yep, I'm pretty convinced that it just comes down to health for Whitlock. Sure he will have his struggles this season as a starter but I think if given enough rope and health permitting he will come out the other side as a guy the Sox can hopefully pencil into the rotation for 2024 and on. It sure would be a big help for the org if he is able to join Bello as a viable cheap SP for the long term. Maybe throw Crawford in there who I am cautiously optimistic he can backup his 2023 and prove to also be a viable SP. If that were to happen then all of a sudden they'd have 3/5 of a cheap controlled rotation which would really open some avenues for the Sox to add bonafide star level talent to bolster the ML roster.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2024 15:39:37 GMT -5
Who says it would have to be a minor league deal? I would have been willing to match the winning bids for Paxton, Imanaga, Maeda, Stroman, Junis, maybe one or two others. I'd be happy with a Montgomery or Clevinger signing too.
I mean, was anyone saying when they signed Giolito "wow, now they've got too many starting pitchers, what are they gonna do?" And now Giolito is out for the season.
None of those guys replaces Criswell. Signing any of those guys means you never see if Whitlock or Houck or both turn into viable starting pitchers. That's the choice to be made - nothing to do with Criswell. And what team has 6-7 big league starting pitchers? None. It only bumps one of the two to the bullpen, and only so long as all five (remaining) starters are healthy. That is obviously not going to be the case the entire season; it never is. And I'm not just going to lament a situation where the Red Sox have so much starting pitching depth that they face the "problem" of not being able to stress test multiple questionable guys.
I say this as someone who's pretty bullish on both Whitlock and Houck as starters, too. And if no other team has 6-7 starters? Well, I'm not sure that's the case, first of all. But if it is, then let the Red Sox be the first! They have the means to do it. And since they have a roster laccking in star power, a nice gambit for this season would have been to make up for it in depth.
I love all these posts talking about how the Sox should have just matched/beaten offers that pitchers signed for with other teams that completely ignore context. Just go sign Imanaga! Ignore the fact that he obviously had his heart set on the Cubbies and spent three weeks in Chicago prior to signing there officially. Sign Stroman! Ignore the fact that he lobbied very publically to sign with the Yanks. Sign Paxton! Maybe he wasn't terribly interested in resigning with the Sox and was interested in chasing a ring with the Dodgers. I dunno, maybe there's a good excuse for why literally no other free agent pitcher would ever have been a fit and signed with the Red Sox. But I find it hard to believe that teams like the Royals, Tigers, and Reds were that much more deep-pocketed and attractive to the free agents out there. Surely they could have gotten (or still might get) at least one of them.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 21, 2024 16:21:30 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2024 16:25:52 GMT -5
0:34 of that video is troubling
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Post by capesox on Mar 21, 2024 17:18:44 GMT -5
The problem with Criswell and Winckowski being the 6th and 7th SP option is if they are in the pen for a month, they can't expect them to jump into the starter roll and start pitching 5 innings plus. Its going to take 3 starts minimum to ramp up to that. Then they have to put a ton of faith in the top of the rotation to go deep in games to not burn out the bullpen, which is being filled with more AAA guys. If Bello and Pivetta are ready for that this year then maybe they can survive it, if not then this is one of the ways this team can really crater out of control. That's why I think the floor for this team is about 70 wins, because they don't have rock solid top of the rotation guys, or the depth needed to survive injures.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 21, 2024 17:46:40 GMT -5
The problem with Criswell and Winckowski being the 6th and 7th SP option is if they are in the pen for a month, they can't expect them to jump into the starter roll and start pitching 5 innings plus. It’s going to take 3 starts minimum to ramp up to that. Then they have to put a ton of faith in the top of the rotation to go deep in games to not burn out the bullpen, which is being filled with more AAA guys. If Bello and Pivetta are ready for that this year then maybe they can survive it, if not then this is one of the ways this team can really crater out of control. That's why I think the floor for this team is about 70 wins, because they don't have rock solid top of the rotation guys, or the depth needed to survive injures. This is just kind of how it works now, isn’t it? 383 pitchers started games last year, and 205 of them had 10 or fewer starts. Some of those were openers/bullpen games, some of those were traditional spot starts, some of them were guys who moved from the bullpen to the rotation, some were guys who got hurt or otherwise bounced from the rotation, but few of them were guys teams wanted starting a significant amount of games for them. Teams just do not have five guys that can be trusted to face the top of the order a third time. There aren’t enough pitchers that good to be trusted. The game has moved toward maintaining a stable of bullpen arms with options, at AAA and MLB alike. This lets you option a guy who needs a rest if the starters have a few blowups, and then call someone up to eat (preferably low-leverage) innings in the meantime. This is what the Rays have done for years.
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Post by capesox on Mar 21, 2024 18:08:13 GMT -5
The Rays have had Shane Mclanahan, Glasnow, Snell, Eflin and other good SP over the years to offset their bulk reliever philosophy to make it work. Yarbrough was a fairly proven bulk innings guy for a couple years even though he wasn't the starter. If they think Bello and Pivetta or Crawford can be as good as those guys then maybe it'll work, if not then they're going to have problems.
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