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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 5, 2013 16:11:52 GMT -5
Honestly, if Drew continues to be a .230/.330/.400 hitter with decent defense at shortstop, having him accept the qualifying offer wouldn't be the end of the world. That's a damn good player in today's game. Well, I can't agree with the highlighted statements. I think those stats sell Drew short. I suspect that he will end up at .260/.345/420 with very solid defense. I like this guy and I hope we keep him. He is certainly major league average IMO. |
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 5, 2013 16:30:38 GMT -5
I believe Drew ends up being a .265/.350/.430 hitter, which is close to the line he produced in the month of May.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2013 17:02:51 GMT -5
Honestly, if Drew continues to be a .230/.330/.400 hitter with decent defense at shortstop, having him accept the qualifying offer wouldn't be the end of the world. That's a damn good player in today's game. I'm assuming this is sarcasm, but in case it's not, to be clear: you don't think that Iglesias can post a .230/.330/.400 line at SS with elite (as opposed to decent) defense? Because if you do (and I think that's a completely realistic projection; perhaps even .020-.030 light on ave) you get all that plus league minimum salary and 6 years of MLB control. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 5, 2013 17:06:22 GMT -5
Honestly, if Drew continues to be a .230/.330/.400 hitter with decent defense at shortstop, having him accept the qualifying offer wouldn't be the end of the world. That's a damn good player in today's game. I'm assuming this is sarcasm, but in case it's not, to be clear: you don't think that Iglesias can post a .230/.330/.400 line at SS with elite (as opposed to decent) defense? Because if you do (and I think that's a completely realistic projection; perhaps even .020-.030 light on ave) you get all that plus league minimum salary and 6 years of MLB control. LOL. Someone's drinking the Kool-aid. |
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2013 17:09:20 GMT -5
Oh YEAH!! Attachments:
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 5, 2013 17:12:31 GMT -5
I'm assuming this is sarcasm, but in case it's not, to be clear: you don't think that Iglesias can post a .230/.330/.400 line If you're going to keep betting on the guy with the .500+ BABIP, can we put some money on it? |
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 5, 2013 17:27:58 GMT -5
No Ellsbury again tonight.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2013 17:29:38 GMT -5
I think he has enough to hit .230/.330/.400 if he gets to play a full season of MLB ball - full season being 500 plate appearance or more in a single season. I absolutely believe he can slash and bunt his way to .250. Toughest get in there would be the .330 given his career walk rate, so it might be closer to .250/.290/.400 but yeah, he'd be in the ballpark with WAR when you add in the plus D at SS. So sure, I'd wage twenty whole dollars donated to Sox Prospects on that if he ever got the 500 PAs in a season on Jose Iglesias producing .230/.330/.400 line. And I'd up the ante by starting every response to one of your posts with "fenwaythehardway is always right..." for a year if I lost.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 5, 2013 17:56:35 GMT -5
No Ellsbury again tonight. Good thing he broke the club record for most stolen bases in a game. He never has to play in another game and his career is a major success. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 5, 2013 18:22:48 GMT -5
I think he has enough to hit .230/.330/.400 if he gets to play a full season of MLB ball - full season being 500 plate appearance or more in a single season. I absolutely believe he can slash and bunt his way to .250. Toughest get in there would be the .330 given his career walk rate, so it might be closer to .250/.290/.400 but yeah, he'd be in the ballpark with WAR when you add in the plus D at SS. So sure, I'd wage twenty whole dollars donated to Sox Prospects on that if he ever got the 500 PAs in a season on Jose Iglesias producing .230/.330/.400 line. And I'd up the ante by starting every response to one of your posts with "fenwaythehardway is always right..." for a year if I lost. I mean, Iglesias' career minor league line is .264/.313/.314. You project him with an IsoD of .100 and an IsoP of .170, and he's never had an IsoD higher than .060 or an IsoP higher than .117 in any (combined) year in his minor league career. In his last three years, his highest single-season OBP is .321 and his highest SLG is .319. You're basically expecting him to be the magical player who hits far and away better at the major league level than he has ever hit in the minor leagues. Sidenote: the difference between a .290 OBP and a .330 OBP is enormous. Based on the Simple WAR calculator, the difference between an an otherwise-average shortstop with a .290 OBP and one with a .330 OBP is .8 WAR over 600 PAs. |
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2013 18:52:29 GMT -5
Uh huh. So you in fenwaythehardway? Sounds like you can't lose.
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Post by cementhead on Jun 5, 2013 19:59:14 GMT -5
George Scott was my first favorite player. I had a George Scott mitt. Yet in my naivety I called him Cementhead, so my name here is supposed to be ironic. Boston's bad reputation was well deserved.
I cannot believe that people are talking about making a qualifying offer to a slightly-above average SS, and dumping a long term-control, high-ceiling, if still erratic and unproven prospect.
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Post by rangoon82 on Jun 5, 2013 20:02:14 GMT -5
Lackey is a legit #3. Holding a good Texas team to one run over 6 is a job well done.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 5, 2013 20:02:53 GMT -5
Uh huh. So you in fenwaythehardway? Sounds like you can't lose. 500 PAs, .230/.330/.400? Sure. |
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2013 20:19:23 GMT -5
WHY IS LACKEY BACK OUT THERE!?!
seems kinda dumb.
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Post by soxcentral on Jun 5, 2013 20:43:56 GMT -5
Uh huh. So you in fenwaythehardway? Sounds like you can't lose. 500 PAs, .230/.330/.400? Sure. The .330 OBP seems like the unlikeliest of the three. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 5, 2013 20:52:48 GMT -5
I'm probably as big a Gomes fan a there is on the forum, but I'd rather have Carp versus the lefty than Gomes versus Scheppers.
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Post by jmei on Jun 5, 2013 20:53:55 GMT -5
Err.. I guess Scheppers isn't coming into the game. But with Gomes as cold as he is, I still wouldn't have put him in.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2013 20:55:30 GMT -5
Gomes has in no way bought his way into pinch-hitting. Carp should have stayed in the game.
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Post by jmei on Jun 5, 2013 21:05:42 GMT -5
Side note: Curt Schilling is an awful announcer.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2013 21:13:30 GMT -5
That was pathetic by Bradley, btw. Looking at a borderline strike with the bunt on. gotta make contact there.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 21:25:43 GMT -5
Gomes has in no way bought his way into pinch-hitting. Carp should have stayed in the game. Gomes as a pinch hitter was batting .375/.500/1.250 with two homers entering the game. I'd say he has been pretty good when Farrell uses him to pinch hit. |
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 5, 2013 21:27:50 GMT -5
I think he has enough to hit .230/.330/.400 if he gets to play a full season of MLB ball - full season being 500 plate appearance or more in a single season. I absolutely believe he can slash and bunt his way to .250. Toughest get in there would be the .330 given his career walk rate, so it might be closer to .250/.290/.400 but yeah, he'd be in the ballpark with WAR when you add in the plus D at SS. So sure, I'd wage twenty whole dollars donated to Sox Prospects on that if he ever got the 500 PAs in a season on Jose Iglesias producing .230/.330/.400 line. And I'd up the ante by starting every response to one of your posts with "fenwaythehardway is always right..." for a year if I lost. I am as big of a Iglesias booster as there is, but your projection for his OBP and SLG seem really really optimistic. And there is no way that he ever posts an OBP 100 points better than his AVG. I could see him maybe having a season where his OBP is north of .320 and his AVG is more like .280. I see his average season being something along the lines of a .265/.305/.375 (.680) which would be good for a WRC+ around 80. By the way that still is a very valuable player, the WAR calculator that JMEI linked says that line with plus plus defense and plus base running would be worth 3.6 WAR. The guy you described is almost worth 5 wines. |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 5, 2013 21:31:03 GMT -5
Great. 17 runs tonight. Probably means Sox lose 3-2 and 2-1 the next two nights. Well, the first half of your prediction came true. |
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 5, 2013 23:54:59 GMT -5
Interesting comment tonight from Farrell that Middlebrooks might stay at Pawtucket for a while, until he got his swing back. It appears Iglesias is sticking for the time being.
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