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6/18-6/19 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 19, 2013 7:11:59 GMT -5
So let me get this straight, Doubront is allowed to throw 100+ in 5-6 inning outings, but when he's dominating he can't get 1 more inning? I don't understand the logic. Also, Bailey has been pretty awful since he has returned from the DL and was inserted at closer. At this point, I wouldn't mind bringing Papelbon back if it meant taking on his contract and giving up C- talent. neither would I, but get the feeling it would cost more. Bringing paps back isn't a good idea. Our pen is going to be fine.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 19, 2013 7:31:50 GMT -5
I dont mean just guys who had no closer experience, I mean anyone who is not an elite reliever, but they thought would at least compete for the role, regardless if they had done it before, and I was talking about Bailey, Melancon, and Hanrahan just in the last year and a half. For those guys we gave up Reddick, Head, Alcantara, Lowrie, Weiland, Pimental, Sands, and Dejesus (we also received Brock Holt). And none of those guys have been the best reliever on our team at any point. My point is relievers are both incredibly volatile, and not nearly as valuable as starters or everyday players, so it is stupid to repeatedly pay out the ass for a reliever over an over again. Our bullpen is already really deep, so we should just go forward with the guys we have, and in the future only build our bullpen with prospects who fail as starters (Bard, Miller, etc.), or guys who can be had cheaply (okajima, uehara, Breslow, etc.). Which one of these prospects is more valuable than Bailey? the answer is none. You just listed a bunch of dreck (Lowrie is decent, but can't stay on the field). They received three closers for that dreck and two have flamed out. The one remaining is having a handful of rough games. Bailey should be fine once he gets his command back. Like has been mentioned, I would rather have the better pitcher pitch in set-up anyway (Tazawa, Miller, Uehara). As much as I hate to admit it Miller might be the best option to close if Bailey can't get it together. Miller has been lights out since installing the slide-step, he has dominant stuff and there are other Lefties for the LH relief role. Bailey should get another chance or two then you have to make a move. He gave up a solo HR it's not like he walked the ballpark this time.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 19, 2013 7:33:38 GMT -5
Where is Guidas to trash Gomes ? Guidas will be okay; he still has Bailey. Unfortunately, so do the Sox. Boy, they needed that game. Xtra innings just would not be good. Salty earned his salary today. Someone mentioned giving Miller a shot st closer, but the guy can get into a wild streak. You do not want a closer with this tendency. Taz has not been as dominate as of late, and don't know if Breslow can pitch that often. Although I do like him, as he throws strikes. About five posts above you eating my crow: That's one way to do it. I've been chipping on Gomes as much as anyone but he got all of that one (thank God for theMonster). Also I was the one who suggested that maybe they give Miller a spin at closer if they are looking for an alternative to Bailey. I agree he can be walk-proned, but Bailey has been pretty tough the last 4 appearances. If your closer can't hold a 1-run lead he's not doing his job - and yeah, when he gave up that chilli pepper to a ham and egger like Kelly, I was torqued. Doubront pitched a hell of a game. None of them are perfect, but Bailey has been clearly off in 3 of his of his last 4. As for Miller, there's also the head test. Some guys have great stuff in relief but just aren't cut out for the pressure of that role where baseball matters. Miller's been working some high leverage innings and doing well. May be a guy you want to run out there in the 9th in a close situation the night after Bailey's gone a couple in a row or throw 30 pitches and see how he does. At the very least it could prepare them for Bailey's next injury.
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Post by jmei on Jun 19, 2013 8:04:18 GMT -5
Aside from the Tampa Bay game when he walked the bases loaded and then walked in a run, Bailey hasn't been a disaster-- all the other runs he's given up in this recent stretch have been scored via home run, and any pitcher is going to go through a stretch where they give up a few dingers in consecutive outings. He's still been striking guys out and his stuff looks good. There's no reason to overreact to three bad outings when he's been lights-out the rest of the year.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 19, 2013 8:24:29 GMT -5
Agreed, though Bailey's injury history makes yet another DL stint as much a statistical likelihood as his recent woes being a statistical blip. All the more reason to see on a night he's not available if Miller or another likely candidate could rise to the occasion.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 19, 2013 10:07:23 GMT -5
Aside from the Tampa Bay game when he walked the bases loaded and then walked in a run, Bailey hasn't been a disaster-- all the other runs he's given up in this recent stretch have been scored via home run, and any pitcher is going to go through a stretch where they give up a few dingers in consecutive outings. He's still been striking guys out and his stuff looks good. There's no reason to overreact to three bad outings when he's been lights-out the rest of the year. Bailey's strikeout rates have been excellent, but he's allowed a home run once every 11.5 batters. And it's not like his HR/FB rate is totally out of whack - his GB/FB rate has fallen every year or his career and has absolutely plummeted this year to 0.23. That's the worst in baseball among pitchers with 20 innings. If he doubled his GB/FB ratio, it would still be fourth worst in baseball. It's not a three game slide, it's an inability to keep the ball out of the air, which means home runs are going to keep happening. He's not good enough to be a closer.
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Post by jdb on Jun 19, 2013 11:14:32 GMT -5
Also: the Red Sox bullpen is still pretty stacked, especially in terms of the top five of Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa, Miller, and Breslow. And even behind them, they have some combination of Morales, Wilson, Mortensen, Aceves, and the AAAA guys (Beato, De La Torre, Carter) for the last two spots. Plus, there's the possibility that guys like De La Rosa, Webster, and Chris Martin can help this team during the stretch run. Honestly, I can think of a bunch of spots on the team that I would address before the bullpen (starting pitching, third base, catcher, outfield, for instance). Agree. I'd rather sit tight with Bailey for now and target a bat like Aramis Ramerez. We need another thumper in the middle and I just don't see any SP that is rumored to be available as a serious upgrade. The Ricky Nalascos and Bud Norris's don't do it for me. Peavy and Josh Johnson are to injury prone as well to be giving up what they would cost. I think the pen will be fine and want to see what Rubby and maybe Workman have in the next five weeks before we go trading prospects and taking on a salary like Paps.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 19, 2013 11:39:45 GMT -5
Miller is such a fascinating pitcher. He can either be that guy who people want off the team instantly, or the most electric and dominant reliever, regardless of inning or right/lefty match up. Just remember that while he could be the most fitting choice for closer in a way, he could also produce the most disastrous results depending on what day it is. Tazawa makes the most sense to me as a back up closer due to his durability, pitch arsenal, and impeccable BB/K ratio.
I'm OK with sticking with Bailey a bit longer, but Farrell better not force him into games because he's the "closer" and should get the "save" like he did last night. The way modern bullpen/closer usage perception has changed (and destroyed) intelligent pen management is baffling and beyond frustrating. To me at least. Also, Bailey really needs to cut down on the play balls, and get those pitches down and produce some ground outs. His GB/FB ration may be linearly declining since he first came up, but nothing like his results this year. This year it's been absolutely outrageous.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 19, 2013 11:42:13 GMT -5
I'd rather sit tight with Bailey for now and target a bat like Aramis Ramerez. We need another thumper in the middle Okay so I admit I don't follow other teams and I'm not a fantasy player so I don't do stats on every player in MLB but what year is it again???
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 19, 2013 11:45:24 GMT -5
Also: the Red Sox bullpen is still pretty stacked, especially in terms of the top five of Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa, Miller, and Breslow. And even behind them, they have some combination of Morales, Wilson, Mortensen, Aceves, and the AAAA guys (Beato, De La Torre, Carter) for the last two spots. Plus, there's the possibility that guys like De La Rosa, Webster, and Chris Martin can help this team during the stretch run. Honestly, I can think of a bunch of spots on the team that I would address before the bullpen (starting pitching, third base, catcher, outfield, for instance). Agree. I'd rather sit tight with Bailey for now and target a bat like Aramis Ramerez. We need another thumper in the middle and I just don't see any SP that is rumored to be available as a serious upgrade. The Ricky Nalascos and Bud Norris's don't do it for me. Peavy and Josh Johnson are to injury prone as well to be giving up what they would cost. I think the pen will be fine and want to see what Rubby and maybe Workman have in the next five weeks before we go trading prospects and taking on a salary like Paps. I agree 100% with this guy
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Post by godot on Jun 19, 2013 11:57:20 GMT -5
Miller is such a fascinating pitcher. He can either be that guy who people want off the team instantly, or the most electric and dominant reliever, regardless of inning or right/lefty match up. Just remember that while he could be the most fitting choice for closer in a way, he could also produce the most disastrous results depending on what day it is. Tazawa makes the most sense to me as a back up closer due to his durability, pitch arsenal, and impeccable BB/K ratio. I'm OK with sticking with Bailey a bit longer, but Farrell better not force him into games because he's the "closer" and should get the "save" like he did last night. The way modern bullpen/closer usage perception has changed (and destroyed) intelligent pen management is baffling and beyond frustrating. To me at least. Also, Bailey really needs to cut down on the play balls, and get those pitches down and produce some ground outs. His GB/FB ration may be linearly declining since he first came up, but nothing like his results this year. This year it's been absolutely outrageous. Agree somewhat. I am not a pitching guy, so take this with a grain of salt or pepper. Don't know if giving Miller a tryout would tell much, as he seems to be unpredictable control wise. Tall, rangy guys like him seem to have this issue. I like Taz, but hasn't he tailed off a bit of late? Is he really that durable? Farrell had some interesting comments about Bailey's troubles, mainly mechanics. But I am curious. Has he always been this heavy around the middle? Sometimes body shape and conditioning result in poor mechanics. Regardless, but at this point believe the Sox will give him more chances. Ugh, but that could be the nature of the beast. By the way, I was not trying to be critical of Guidas. Just find him a hoot, and very knowledgeable and passionate.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 19, 2013 11:59:08 GMT -5
I'd rather sit tight with Bailey for now and target a bat like Aramis Ramerez. We need another thumper in the middle Okay so I admit I don't follow other teams and I'm not a fantasy player so I don't do stats on every player in MLB but what year is it again??? Don't have to be a fantasy player to be able to use baseball reference www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirar01.shtml
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Post by jmei on Jun 19, 2013 13:11:51 GMT -5
Aside from the Tampa Bay game when he walked the bases loaded and then walked in a run, Bailey hasn't been a disaster-- all the other runs he's given up in this recent stretch have been scored via home run, and any pitcher is going to go through a stretch where they give up a few dingers in consecutive outings. He's still been striking guys out and his stuff looks good. There's no reason to overreact to three bad outings when he's been lights-out the rest of the year. Bailey's strikeout rates have been excellent, but he's allowed a home run once every 11.5 batters. And it's not like his HR/FB rate is totally out of whack - his GB/FB rate has fallen every year or his career and has absolutely plummeted this year to 0.23. That's the worst in baseball among pitchers with 20 innings. If he doubled his GB/FB ratio, it would still be fourth worst in baseball. It's not a three game slide, it's an inability to keep the ball out of the air, which means home runs are going to keep happening. He's not good enough to be a closer. In all seriousness, I agree, and that's why despite his superb strikeout rate his xFIP is only good and not great. He's left the fastball up an awful lot this year and it's something he's admitted he needs to work on. But Bailey is talented enough that I think he'll improve there, and I'm generally opposed to fiddling too much with the bullpen hierarchy.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 19, 2013 14:15:52 GMT -5
Miller is such a fascinating pitcher. He can either be that guy who people want off the team instantly, or the most electric and dominant reliever, regardless of inning or right/lefty match up. Just remember that while he could be the most fitting choice for closer in a way, he could also produce the most disastrous results depending on what day it is. Tazawa makes the most sense to me as a back up closer due to his durability, pitch arsenal, and impeccable BB/K ratio. I'm OK with sticking with Bailey a bit longer, but Farrell better not force him into games because he's the "closer" and should get the "save" like he did last night. The way modern bullpen/closer usage perception has changed (and destroyed) intelligent pen management is baffling and beyond frustrating. To me at least. Also, Bailey really needs to cut down on the play balls, and get those pitches down and produce some ground outs. His GB/FB ration may be linearly declining since he first came up, but nothing like his results this year. This year it's been absolutely outrageous. Agree somewhat. I am not a pitching guy, so take this with a grain of salt or pepper. Don't know if giving Miller a tryout would tell much, as he seems to be unpredictable control wise. Tall, rangy guys like him seem to have this issue. I like Taz, but hasn't he tailed off a bit of late? Is he really that durable? Farrell had some interesting comments about Bailey's troubles, mainly mechanics. But I am curious. Has he always been this heavy around the middle? Sometimes body shape and conditioning result in poor mechanics. Regardless, but at this point believe the Sox will give him more chances. Ugh, but that could be the nature of the beast. By the way, I was not trying to be critical of Guidas. Just find him a hoot, and very knowledgeable and passionate. I'm not sure about Body type, Bailey does seem a little "stockier" then I remember him in Oakland , but he's always had that violent, violent delivery. It's a wonder he can repeat that delivery at all, it reminds me of the Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams without the falling down. He's a max effort guy and that has to take something away from the secondaries. That being said, he is what he is, I don't think you're fixing the herky jerky delivery without some kind of major over haul. That leaves you with a pitcher that is super injury prone, effectively wild and has a tendency to screw up his mechanics for a stretch. It was telling the other night when he was walking the ball-park and he couldn't even throw a strike when he was simply laying it in there. I think Taz would be the best option, but I love him in the relief ace role. He can pitch often and throws strikes. Sure he's had a rough patch himself , but I think that simply means there's a good run of dominance coming. I'd hate to name Taz the closer then have an 8th inning situation where you desperately need an out and Uehara is spent from overuse. I still think if there's a in house option that isn't Bailey it could be Miller. He seems to have a bit of that mentality and it would be a good motivation thing for the former top prospect.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 19, 2013 14:36:33 GMT -5
Miller is NOT going to be the closer. It has nothing to do with his stuff but rather he is too erratic and his control is too suspect. Breslow, Uehura don't throw hard enough, Aceves has been tried and found wanting, Morales has lost some mph from last year and he doesn't have the greatest control either. The only possibility from this group is Tazawa to replace Bailey. ...I would not be happy about that either. All of our guys are better 7th & 8th inning performers.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 19, 2013 14:39:50 GMT -5
Miller is NOT going to be the closer. It has nothing to do with his stuff but rather he is too erratic and his control is too suspect. Breslow, Uehura don't throw hard enough, Aceves has been tried and found wanting, Morales has lost some mph from last year and he doesn't have the greatest control either. The only possibility from this group is Tazawa to replace Bailey. ...I would not be happy about that either. All of our guys are better 7th & 8th inning performers. Exactly, we're questioning Bailey's control. And, seem to forget Miller walking in the winning run against KC. Just don't trust him in big spots yet.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 19, 2013 14:48:20 GMT -5
Miller is NOT going to be the closer. It has nothing to do with his stuff but rather he is too erratic and his control is too suspect. Breslow, Uehura don't throw hard enough, Aceves has been tried and found wanting, Morales has lost some mph from last year and he doesn't have the greatest control either. The only possibility from this group is Tazawa to replace Bailey. ...I would not be happy about that either. All of our guys are better 7th & 8th inning performers. Wait, when did this become a thing? You realize that Mariano Rivera throws like 88 MPH and Trevor Hoffman was a changeup artist, right? Not to mention that the Red Sox won a World Series thanks in no small part to Keith Foulke. Closers almost always start with clean innings, which favors control guys who limit baserunners. You'd rather have your flamethrowing high strikeout, high walk guy come in with runners on base, when the walk hurts you less than a hit.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 19, 2013 14:58:16 GMT -5
Chance to put TB 8 back with a win tonight. Not a big game since the Sox are in front. But, I would call it a nice opportunity to put some distance between us and them. If we can keep Toronto and TB way back. Really, only have to beat out Baltimore or NYY to make the playoffs.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 19, 2013 14:58:26 GMT -5
OK, but if you're going by Bailey's small sample of recent performances then you may want to look at Miller's performance within the small sample generated since May 14. Miller has also handled a lot of high leverage innings in the last few weeks.
Bailey can get away with that high strike when he's throwing it over 96 and the ball has movement. When it's 94 or less and pretty flat, not so much. One could say similar things about Miller and his walk rate in the past. As we all say, these guys aren't machines, but I don't know how many of us trust Bailey in the 9th with a 1-run lead right now. If there is opportunity (i.e Bailey's gone 2 days in a row or thrown too many pitches the night before) and they need to slug in someone for the 9th, it would be intriguing to see how'd Miller'd do given how he's thrown over the last month.
And I'm all good if anyone wants to rip my opinions out here. This is a dialogue, right? Besides, I'm going on the presumption that everyone here speaks in pretty much the same voice and tone as Buddy from ELF ("Syrup!? I LOVE syrup!") - me included.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 19, 2013 15:27:01 GMT -5
Bailey can get away with that high strike when he's throwing it over 96 and the ball has movement. When it's 94 or less and pretty flat, not so much. One could say similar things about Miller and his walk rate in the past. As we all say, these guys aren't machines, but I don't know how many of us trust Bailey in the 9th with a 1-run lead right now. If there is opportunity (i.e Bailey's gone 2 days in a row or thrown too many pitches the night before) and they need to slug in someone for the 9th, it would be intriguing to see how'd Miller'd do given how he's thrown over the last month.Even when Miller is going good, he allows waaaaaaay too many baserunners to be closing. See my prior comment on the type of skillset I want at the closer roll.
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Post by jmei on Jun 19, 2013 15:53:48 GMT -5
All of our guys are better 7th & 8th inning performers. This is just silly. Tazawa has a 2.51 ERA and 2.68 xFIP with elite strike and walkout numbers. Uehara has closed before and is at 2.17/2.90. Even Andrew Miller is at 2.77/2.13 with elite strikeout and ground ball numbers (albeit with mediocre walk rates). It doesn't take a special type of pitcher to pitch the ninth, and the Red Sox have at least two or three elite relievers who could more than handle it. EDIT: and this all coming from a major Bailey supporter.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 19, 2013 15:56:04 GMT -5
Lead off walks often score. Then again fat pitches down the middle often lead to home runs. Lesser of two oftens is what we need here. Or just a guy who can hold a 1-run lead for a single inning. That and to have the 1-run lead.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 19, 2013 15:58:12 GMT -5
Miller is NOT going to be the closer. It has nothing to do with his stuff but rather he is too erratic and his control is too suspect. Breslow, Uehura don't throw hard enough, Aceves has been tried and found wanting, Morales has lost some mph from last year and he doesn't have the greatest control either. The only possibility from this group is Tazawa to replace Bailey. ...I would not be happy about that either. All of our guys are better 7th & 8th inning performers. Wait, when did this become a thing? You realize that Mariano Rivera throws like 88 MPH and Trevor Hoffman was a changeup artist, right? Not to mention that the Red Sox won a World Series thanks in no small part to Keith Foulke. Closers almost always start with clean innings, which favors control guys who limit baserunners. You'd rather have your flamethrowing high strikeout, high walk guy come in with runners on base, when the walk hurts you less than a hit. [/b Fenway, I can't let you get away with these comments. First Mariano throws about 91-92 and tops out about 93. He has good enough velocity with almost perfect control. I think we all know that good location, movement and velocity are three main elements for highly effective pitching. For a closer, make-up is yet another one. Mariano has great location, outstanding, quick movement to his cutter and still enough velocity. He seems imperturbable. He probably could be an effective pitcher at 88 but that is not what he throws. You have either not been watching him close games or misrepresented his velo to substantiate your point. The second highlight misstates what I said. No one wants a closer who can't find the plate no matter how hard he throws. But, if I could only have 2 elements for successful pitching , I would choose velocity as one and location as the second. Now you can look across baseball today and I suspect that for most teams their current closer is one of the hardest if not the hardest thrower on the team....high 90s octane even when, as with Hanrahan, he does not have the greatest control. Bailey has good velocity but not blow you away stuff. His location has been suspect and that has hurt him. As for the other Sox candidates, I am not convinced that they have the right make-up to consistently succeed in the closer role, in addition to what I said previously.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 19, 2013 16:23:00 GMT -5
You don't necessarily need the guy who can hold the 1 run lead in the ninth. Most save opportunities are 2 and 3 run saves. That's why you'd rather have the "relief ace" in the 7th or 8th inning if possible.
A lot of guys could do it, but the question is what bullpen alignment allows you the best usage in a day in day out way. Also just because a pitcher has the stuff to close doesn't mean he'll excell there. Believe it or not this is the one area where the intangible is nearly as important as the stats.
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Post by jdb on Jun 19, 2013 16:23:45 GMT -5
Why are we playing Salty tonight? Give the man a break, 3 games in two days.
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