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Post by ethanbein on Aug 19, 2015 9:56:27 GMT -5
Is anyone going to the Saber Seminar this weekend? Someone should ask if they're just abandoning advanced data now and going strictly with scouting. I'll be there, but at this point it's tough to say who is going to show up. To nomar's point about everyone doing it, I agree but only to an extent. I don't think they're going to start looking at RBIs and Wins or something, even if they get Frank Wren. I'd guess the metrics they use to evaluate players will be at least as good as what we're looking at on this forum all the time. I'm not too concerned about that. However, analytics these days isn't even necessarily about advanced metrics. Of course those are important, but the best teams have advanced machine learning models harnessing the data streams that come in, they're creative in coming up with new, testable ideas, and they're aggressive about implementing them through trades and on the field. Think Dodgers, Rays, Pirates, in different ways. I don't know what the Red Sox analytics department has looked like on the inside, but I doubt it has been as strong as the best. I was hoping this offseason shakeup would include a push to strengthen their analytics department. Instead, if I had to guess, it will stay relatively small, and its ideas will probably be listened to a little less. A front office with good scouting but poor analytics can still be a good FO - scouting can be worth a whole lot if you're good. But that doesn't mean it won't be disappointing of the team doesn't make a push to improve in that area. Of course, it's possible we wouldn't even necessarily hear about any new hires in the department - so it might be a few years before we can evaluate this one.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 18, 2015 22:14:49 GMT -5
I didn't see what happened with Wren in the last 6 pages. Is anything official with him? Just the Bob Nightengale tweet that Wren is the leading contender.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 18, 2015 21:56:39 GMT -5
FWIW, I think DiPoto would be the perfect GM under Dombrowski. It seems like their strengths would compliment each other really well. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like that is too likely at this point, but it would make me feel pretty good about this move if that ends up being the case.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 18, 2015 21:16:50 GMT -5
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 18, 2015 20:51:39 GMT -5
Damn. Gotta reserve judgement on Dombrowski until you see what he does under this ownership, but all I feel is sadness to see Cherington go.
Thanks for 2013, Ben.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 18, 2015 12:08:57 GMT -5
Remember last July 2, before Moncada, when we were all complaining about how they went over the cap just for 2 pitchers?
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 17, 2015 22:18:55 GMT -5
“@jtomase: Lovullo: “Hanley is a work in progress. That was a tough play tonight. We have to understand where he’s come from and where he’s at.”” In no world is that a tough play for a LF... It was the atrocious read that made it a tough play. If the Red Sox want to compete next year, they need to tell Hanley he's going to be the 4th OF if he doesn't learn how to play the outfield, because at this point, even if he gets back up to the 130 wRC+ range where he's been in the past (which is solidly above his projections), his realistic ceiling is roughly an average player as long as his defense remains this bad. He's nice to have around to spell Ortiz against some lefties and to fill in at LF when somebody needs a day off (nice to have 3 guys who can play center), but at this point, that's all he is.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 17, 2015 19:35:59 GMT -5
Bradley projects as a 2-3 win player with some upside, with 5 years of team control remaining. Yeah, he might hit Super 2, but his best skill doesn't get paid in arbitration. Nobody is untouchable, and if somebody sees him as a future star go ahead and trade him, but he's a pretty valuable asset right now, and I think I would hold on to him.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 17, 2015 19:21:32 GMT -5
Anyone except Hanley...
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 17, 2015 18:55:41 GMT -5
3 Ks early is nice to see. Always liked Barnes as a starter, would love to see him make the most of this opportunity. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up as a solid back-end starter who can be optioned next year, which is something they could greatly use.
(and two more while I was typing that... maybe I should actually turn on the game)
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 17, 2015 13:48:40 GMT -5
Going to play Devil’s Advocate for a minute: Is it time to sell high on Bradley? Has his recent hot streak raised his value enough that he might be a valuable chip in a trade before the waiver deadline? Not saying I’d do it, but what if he tanks down the stretch, and hits like he has his entire career? It would be foolish to forget the fact that other than a 5 game stretch where he had 13 hits in 22 at-bats, JBJ has never hit at the MLB level. In 564 AB’s he’s hitting .204, take out his 5 game hot streak and he has batted .188 over 542 career at-bats. Honestly, I think JBJ has turned a corner in his career, but logically it is tough to put more stock in a 5 game hot streak, than the previous 189 games over the previous 3 seasons. Food for thought. Regardless of whether or not you think it would be a good idea, he would get claimed by the first team who could claim him if he were put on waivers, so it's not really an option until the offseason.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 17, 2015 8:28:33 GMT -5
Worth mentioning that an adjustment was made to the college bats a few years ago to give them a coefficient of restitution ("bounce") closer to wooden bats. I'm sure there's still some adjustment needing to be made (and the interview backs that up), but it might not be as different as it used to be.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 16, 2015 9:34:57 GMT -5
Quintero, one of those players teams like to have on their roster before AUG 31 as their 3rd catcher. Sox don't need him this year. Wonder if they'll be looking to make some minor trades. Berry, too, would be a good piece for a contending team. I'd like to see him in a Blue Jays uniform. If a player like them had any value at all, they wouldn't make it through waivers. You can trade non-40 man minor leagues even after July 31 though, no?
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 14, 2015 20:41:23 GMT -5
I met him when he came and answered questions at the local SABR chapter meeting, which, given the size of the crowd, was itself a stand-up thing to do, but he came across as a stand-up guy on top of that. No wonder that his players and ex-players (like Victorino) are reacting with so much support. And no doubt that he will beat this. Agreed 100%. Regardless of how any of us felt about him as a manager, from all accounts he's a great guy. I saw him speak at Saberseminar last year, which is a fundraiser for the Jimmy Fund where all speakers are there on a volunteer basis. He was candid with the crowd and insightful, and came off as just a likable guy. He would've been there for this year's seminar next weekend, too. Makes the whole event take on a whole lot more meaning. Best of luck on your road to recovery, John.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 14, 2015 10:35:23 GMT -5
Personally, I think Swihart should show he can hit well enough to be a starter at the position with the lowest offensive bar before we talk about moving him to the position with the highest.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 12, 2015 13:16:42 GMT -5
Gut reaction, subject to change: love it, love it, love it. Obviously a lot depends on what exactly his role is, and how much of it really is "interim".
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 11, 2015 21:37:42 GMT -5
Alright, I take back what I said in the draft pick thread. Tanking sucks, even when the young guys have a good game. Still can't believe Craig Breslow has a major league job.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 11, 2015 17:01:39 GMT -5
60 power seems aggressive. Just from his stats, 60 hit/50 power seems like a much more likely upside scenario than the reverse - good strikeout and walk numbers throughout the minors.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 11, 2015 15:34:53 GMT -5
Line in Lowell after today (maybe off by a point or two): .279/.403/.548, 10.8 K%, 16.9 BB%, .269 ISO. 2nd highest OPS in the Penn League.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 11, 2015 7:48:19 GMT -5
I don't think it matters at all, but it is funny how highly Pawtucket was thought of preseason compared to have they have actually fared (for a variety of reasons). Who's underperformed more, Pawtucket or Bonst?
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 11, 2015 7:26:20 GMT -5
You definitely give up harder contact when you try to strike everyone out. Is this really true? Sorry to bring this up in the Espinoza thread but I'm curious. Is this Porcello's problem? Grabbed GCL stats (because maybe this is different in the minors) and ran a correlation of BABIP on K%, and they're negatively related, to the tune of about 1.3 points of decreased BABIP for each 1% increase in K%. That's not the end of the story obviously (correlation doesn't equal causation and all that) but I'm not really sure this is universally true.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 10, 2015 15:47:27 GMT -5
Good thing we didn't trade our 40-year old relief ace in a finished season though, right? Nothing could go wrong there. This is just a cynical joke right? What does getting slammed in the arm with a batted ball have to do with being 40 years old? Can you explain? Yeah, mostly a (bad) joke. Still think he was an obvious trade candidate and there's a good chance he won't be healthy/performing next year, and it sure does suck to have Jean Machi closing out games at the end of this season, but this injury was a fluke.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 10, 2015 15:39:09 GMT -5
As to Why isn't the youngster yet promoted — he hasn't earned it yet. At least not by results. He's been the 9th best hitter in the NY Penn League this year. What do you want from him?
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 10, 2015 14:34:49 GMT -5
Koji to the DL, per PeteAbe. Machi to close. Two bullpen spots are open, and Betts to be taken off DL. Presumably, Marrero to go back to Pawtucket and two AAA relievers (Cook/Layne?) to be called up before Tuesday's game. Good thing we didn't trade our 40-year old relief ace in a finished season though, right? Nothing could go wrong there.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 10, 2015 6:36:53 GMT -5
I don't have much to say on the James Andrew stuff, because it's just depressing. What I do have to say is, I hope the Red Sox move quickly, not rush but move him quickly because what seems obvious is the guy that throws hard in their early twenties, lose that velocity in their mid to late twenties. There's so many examples I know all of you well versed baseball fans know what I'm talking about. I just don't want to see espinoza have to prove himself more than once at Portland, OR in Pawtucket, and then he's in the league at 24, 25. If he has the stuff I'd like to see him up here at 20, 21 and let the stuff play. I can't comment much on his command, but his control is there, and with that mix of pitches and that fastball one would have to think he would experience some measure of success early at the big league level and build on that as it goes. Just my $0.02 on him moving quickly He's primed to start next year in Greenville, hopefully that does come to fruition. If it does, and things go well, it's not hard to see him spend 3 years to go through 4 levels of the minors, which would put him up in the majors for his age 21 season, and potentially even sooner in a best case scenario. If he's not up until 24, something's gone wrong with his development - the Red Sox aren't going to keep down a potential ace who is performing in the high minors.
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