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Post by ethanbein on Aug 9, 2015 15:04:16 GMT -5
And that's why you don't walk Josh Rutledge intentionally, ever.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 8, 2015 20:47:12 GMT -5
Locks: Buchholz, Porcello, Wright. Locks unless traded: Rodriguez Likely: Miley Of course, I won't disagree that the Sox could be improved by acquiring an elite pitcher. My suggestion for the rotation if they do acquire one without giving Rodriguez or Miley in return would be a piggyback arrangement - have Wright face the first 18 (or more) batters and then have Miley/Porcello/Rodriguez finish the game. If someone gets injured or there's a doubleheader, you already have an extra stretched-out starter on the roster. Of course, it won't happen with Farrell, but I haven't given up hope that we could have a more enlightened manager next year. A Wright/Rodriguez piggybacking could be so good... If only, if only.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 8, 2015 20:04:09 GMT -5
How about 4 years for $80mm, with an opt out after 2 years with payments of $30mm each of the first 2 years and $10mm each of the last two thus insuring he exercises the opt out if he's at all healthy (maybe even sweeten it with $5mm if he opts out)? It reduces the AAV maybe, not sure how it would be scored, and gives him some security in case of injury. I'm usually against opt outs, because they're worth a ton for pitchers and don't seem to give teams much of a discount, but Heyward seems like a great candidate for one. Lots of upside, but lots of risk too from his point of view (due to his downward trend since his rookie year), so he might give a nice discount for the ability to reach free agency after a few years while still having security. Of course if he doesn't opt out that means he wasn't worth his deal, but that's always a possibility and I like Heyward's floor. I would love to see him in Boston next year if the price is reasonable.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 7, 2015 12:46:59 GMT -5
You better pray Henry has seen the light and goes after a Billy Beane to run the entire show or another experienced baseball ops disciple, if Cherington is not the choice. Man, if only John Henry had gone after Billy Beane to run the team, maybe he would've had some success this past decade.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 6, 2015 23:03:18 GMT -5
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 6, 2015 20:51:17 GMT -5
The guy was still pumping easy heat into the 7th inning - 95 to 97. He did make the mistake to Ellsbury. That was all about location. But the slider he just got ARod on was a killer. Consider it on the job training. These guys need to pitch in those situations, I believe. Disagree - this "situation" (pitching the 4th time through the order in a medium+ leverage game situation) is one that is dying out in baseball, at least with managers that aren't stuck in the 20th century. Since he should never be asked to do it at any point in his career, there is no need to practice it. He's probably not good enough to keep in there the 4th time through the order, I agree, but if he's going to be in that situation, 3 Ks ain't bad.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 6, 2015 18:33:02 GMT -5
Chris Young has a .500 slugging percentage? WTF? Why can't the Red Sox get freaking lucky like that. Cashman more or less said that they signed Chris Young because his hit f/x numbers were better than his results. It's not just luck, it's good analytics - something the Red Sox seem to be lacking in lately.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 6, 2015 18:30:36 GMT -5
At what point is it worth it to think about declining Buchholz's option and extending him a qualifying offer? Are you sure this is allowed? Apparently, yes. Man, this system is stupid.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 6, 2015 18:10:27 GMT -5
Devers is still only 18, he's already at Low A, and he's hitting .283/.318/.439. Since June 1 it is .236/.275/.404. They may promote him to get a look at High A going into next season, but competition-wise the SAL seems like an appropriate challenge for him. Agreed. Devers is a nice prospect with nice tools and raw power having a decent year and everything, but he's putting up relatively pedestrian numbers in Greenville. I'm not trying to knock his prospect status at all (although I'm a bit lower on him than some), I know scouts love him and I think the power will come, but a .158 ISO and .283 average doesn't scream "promote me now" for a bat-first prospect.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 5, 2015 20:01:02 GMT -5
Guys, I think Kevin Heller found SoxProspects
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 5, 2015 12:31:09 GMT -5
This isn't really true. The average #5 pick is significantly better than the average #10 pick. One estimate has the #5 pick at about 40% more WAR over the team controlled years. Yeah, draft picks are crapshoots in general, but the top picks are significantly better bets than picks even a bit lower. Your link isn't working for me either, but based on this the expected difference between the 5th and 10th pick over their first 6 years averages about 2.5 WAR. Less for pitchers and high schoolers, more for hitters and players drafted out of college. Compared to the benefit of finishing this season on a positive note and having everyone's individual performance improve - 2.5 WAR over 6 years is a very small price to pay. Average expected WAR by pick and pick type: 5th Pick 7th Pick 10th Pick HS P 4.2 3.5 2.9 HS H 9.1 7.6 6.2 C P 6.7 5.6 4.6 C H 11.6 9.7 8.0 7.9 6.6 5.4 This is the link I was trying to add - sorry about that, I must have done it wrong on my phone. The 40% number comes from his exponential decay model based on draft pick. Yeah, it's only a few WAR difference, but that's just because all draft picks have pretty low averages. I agree that I would rather have us end the season on a high note (with sustainably good performances from players who will be on next year's team), but #5 is still a significantly better place to be than #10, just draft wise.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 5, 2015 9:44:40 GMT -5
Worth noting that the typical difference between the fifth pick in the draft and the tenth pick in the draft is pretty minor. Yes, every once in a while you miss a stud by a couple picks. But more often than not, there's not a huge difference in the kind of player you'd get between #5 and #10. This isn't really true. The average #5 pick is significantly better than the average #10 pick. One estimate has the #5 pick at about 40% more WAR over the team controlled years. Yeah, draft picks are crapshoots in general, but the top picks are significantly better bets than picks even a bit lower.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 1, 2015 7:42:37 GMT -5
Trey Ball has no buisness being in the top 20 (The guy has the highest FIP in the Carolina League) and ahead of Stank. *Happy to see Lin back in the Top 60. And as I'm sure you realize, stats in A ball are useless unless supplemented with scouting and there have been a number of reports this year projecting Ball to develop into a backend starter... Which is certainly a top 20 prospect. He's in Salem, not the DSL - stats absolutely do mean something. Two months ago you had a more reasonable argument, but he's been even worse since then. The only thing that's gotten better since last year is his BABIP, yet it's regularly mentioned on the podcast that he's improved since last year. I just don't think it's reasonable to project anyone who is striking nobody out and walking almost as many in High A to be a major league pitcher. Also, it's not like his stuff is particularly good. He throws low 90s with good plane, has a secondary that flashes above average, but with poor command? That equals major league pitcher? I just don't see it.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 31, 2015 15:06:26 GMT -5
@ken_Rosenthal: "#Padres largely standing pat because GM A.J. Preller believes the team can reach the postseason, source says."
Anyone still want our GM to act like AJ Preller?
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 31, 2015 12:21:52 GMT -5
Sounds about right
(there's a tweet there... doesn't seem to work half the time on the forum)
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 30, 2015 11:56:27 GMT -5
Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel strongly implies that the real reason the Mets called off the deal was not out of concerns about Gomez's hip but out of financial concerns (or because they also wanted Milawaukee to include a Competitive Balance pick): www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/320022541.htmlI know the spin on this is going to be "The Mets are so cheap that they called off the Carlos Gomez trade because of his $9 million salary!" But I'll take the Mets side on this one. Gomez is really good, cheap, and valuable, but Wheeler and Flores is a steep price to pay. Maybe worth it, maybe not, but I don't think it's crazy to ask for something else along with it. A draft pick, or some money. Even if Gomez is worth way more than $9 million, the money is still valuable. It's very possible, and reasonable, that they said that Wheeler and Flores was just too steep a price to pay for just Gomez straight up.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 30, 2015 11:15:31 GMT -5
So I hadn't thought about Trey Ball in about two months, so I went and looked up his stats. Turns out he's actually running *worse* strikeout, walk, and home run rates than he was last year. That's almost impressively bad. He has the worst FIP of anyone in the Carolina league with at least 60 IP (and he has 102). He's been even worse over the past month (12.4 K%, 11.5 BB%). Who knows, maybe he'll figure something out in 4 years and turn into a useable major league pitcher, but the way he's been going, it doesn't look like he'll end up there.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 29, 2015 21:23:50 GMT -5
Someone needs to explain to me how the Dodgers got Latos, Alex Wood, and Jose Peraza in the same deal. Do we know a single player they gave up yet? Hector Olivera, apparently. So, the Braves traded Peraza and Wood for a guy they could've signed a few months ago? And they might be taking on Morse's contract too? Jesus Andrew Friedman is good at talking other teams into trades that are absolutely atrocious for them... On another note, the Mets refused to take Wilmer Flores out of the game while he was crying, knowing that he had been traded from the team he signed for when he was 16. You can't help but feel for the guy - it seems only reasonable to take him out after you trade him.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 29, 2015 15:45:57 GMT -5
As mentioned, you cannot judge players solely by their year-to-date stats, especially when the major difference between them is small samples of defensive metrics. You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. Would you really rather have Brock Holt than Ben Zobrist for just the rest of the season?
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 28, 2015 22:22:07 GMT -5
Mookie has concussion symptoms, probably is going to the 7-day DL. Guessing I'll get my wish to see JBJ up... I hate 2015.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 27, 2015 21:30:43 GMT -5
Sorry, there is no evidence you can give me to make me believe Joe Kelly is a major league starter. He is Allen Webster with three fewer pitches and less ball movement. Counterpoint: 407.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.12 xFIP ...and a whopping 1.1 fWAR/200 IP. These days, those numbers just aren't very good for a guy who has spent most of his career in the NL. Is he as bad as his ERA suggests this year? No. Is he a guy that should be pitching every 5th day for a contender? Right now, he's not.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 27, 2015 17:29:32 GMT -5
So, Rusney is going to get playing time priority over Bradley the rest of the year? Gotta move De Aza and Nava now. Though I expect Nava to be DFA'd more than I expect him to be traded. I don't doubt that Bradley is on the major league roster come August 1, but this move seems to indicate that Castillo is getting priority. Betts will play every day in center and Hanley most days in left, so it looks like there still won't be room for daily ABs for Bradley... which is crazy. We'll see if I'm wrong, but I'm not hopeful about their handling of JBJ at this point.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 27, 2015 17:17:08 GMT -5
So, Rusney is going to get playing time priority over Bradley the rest of the year?
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 27, 2015 11:22:47 GMT -5
Javier Guerra has just an 18% strikeout right in July (compared to 25% on the year, and higher earlier). Oh, and you know, he's got 40 points of ISO on Devers this year, and plays plus SS defense. This might be the best the system has been in a long time, which is crazy considering the recent graduations of Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Rodriguez (soon)...
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 27, 2015 10:43:21 GMT -5
What makes you think he's playing over his head? Just BABIP? There's also a clear path for Bogaerts to go from being a very good player to a super star, if he starts walking and hitting for the power that he has throughout his career. He's already shown the ability to improve the weaker aspects of his game dramatically (strikeouts and defense). Not saying that's necessarily going to happen, but it seems a much more likely step forward than any Syndergaard could make at this point, and they're already about equal in value. The extra years of team control are big, but I don't think they outweigh the volatility of pitchers, or the potential future value differential. BABIP is a lot of it, as that will almost certainly come down, even if he could easily be an over .300 guy. Defense is also a lot of it - even if he's much improved, I'm a bit skeptical he'll continue to be a +5 to +10 guy going forward, especially as he ages. I think the walks and power will come back and that will help, but Fangraphs has him at .277/.327/.414 rest of season, good for a 103 wRC+. Combined with average to better defense at SS that's very nice, but it's more of a good player than a great one. I certainly see the reasoning for wanting to hold onto him, especially with no replacement apparent, but I'd pull the trigger on this one. FWIW, Dave Cameron had Syndergaard about 10 spots higher than Bogaerts on his trade value list.
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