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Post by ethanbein on Jul 27, 2015 10:24:54 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and take the other side here. Bogaerts is a fine player, but Sydergaard is probably better right now. Bogaerts is playing over his head this year, and is about as bad of a hitter as you can be with his excellent batting average. He's certainly a good player already with great upside, but until the power comes I wouldn't see him as untouchable. Thor is already pitching like one of the best in the game, and his larger present value combined with his extra years of team control make up for the extra risk that comes with being a pitcher, in my mind.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 26, 2015 17:06:38 GMT -5
You understand that Carrasco made what 17 starts last year? So you can't compare him to other qualified starters because he wasn't qualified. All I am saying is that you don't know how he does as a 30 start 200 inning guy because he has never come close to those numbers and is 28 years old. So I'm not sure he is a good # 3 and you some how think he is a frontline guy based off of 17 starts. I would say chances are he can be a good middle of the rotation arm that has a chance to improve and be a frontline guy, but those chances are very slim. I was talking past calendar year (i.e. last August until now). He's made 30 starts, thrown 194 innings, and put up stupid good numbers (at least defense-independent wise). I don't think he's the 6th best starter in the majors, but he's probably a good number 3 or a number 2 going forward, with number 1 upside and a nice contract. If it really only takes Johnson or Owens and Margot, the Red Sox should be all over that.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 26, 2015 16:15:27 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind adding either Carrasco or Bauer. But you don't trade Owens to get Carrasco. This year is the most starts Carrasco has ever made in a season. Sure he can help us but he is more like a mid rotation guy not a top of the line guy we need. I have no problem trading Margot and other players, but not Owens. Carrasco is a frontline guy. Look past his ERA. Last calendar year, he's 5th in FIP among qualified starters, right between Jacob DeGrom and Chris Sale. If Owens ever becomes anywhere near as good as Carrasco has been lately, he'll have to be looked at as a huge, huge success.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 26, 2015 11:31:10 GMT -5
I know this isn't really the point of the post, but saying that Red Sox are more analytically oriented than the Yankees is an outdated way of looking at things. The Yankees certainly have a larger analytics staff than the Red Sox do, and maybe a more analytically inclined GM. I'll take our ownership over theirs, but beyond that I would say we've fallen behind several teams in terms of aggressive analytics use.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 25, 2015 8:39:38 GMT -5
If all it takes is Margot and Johnson, we should be all over him (but so will other teams). I'm guessing it would take Swihart... and I would seriously think about it. His defense independent numbers say he's an ace, and I'm not going to hold the Indians defense against him. I would love to see him heading the rotation near year.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 22, 2015 12:37:54 GMT -5
I know it doesn't really matter in the long run, but does Benintendi ride out the year in Lowell no matter what? I can't imagine he doesn't move up to Greenville and start in Salem next year (or at least get an early season promotion). Is he really going to move slower than Sam Travis when he's hitting dingers like crazy and walking 20+% of the time?
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 18, 2015 21:12:18 GMT -5
Feeling more and more strongly that Owens is one of the 5 best starting pitchers in the system right now... Really hoping he gets his shot at some point this year
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 15, 2015 23:30:15 GMT -5
Yeah what would the Red Sox want with a reliever who has an ERA under two and more than a strikeout per inning? Seriously, I know it could be a headache, but Papelbon would be a massive boost to this bullpen. Kind of crazy how well that contract has worked out for the Phillies. He's pitching his way into the league of some of the all-time great closers. Maybe it's just a little bit of nostalgia, but I'd love to see him back in Boston.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 14, 2015 15:45:51 GMT -5
12:38 Comment From Mike Javier Guerra now has 11 HRs…do the grades on his power need to be upgraded or is he just running into a couple?
12:39 Kiley McDaniel: Fringy raw power if I recall my notes from earlier this year correctly, plays to 12-15 per year or so in a good scenario, could easily be a tick less.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 14, 2015 13:39:53 GMT -5
Relevant comment thread on Tom Tango's blog, on uncertainty in Offense vs. Defense. Basically, on any given plate appearance, there are factors external to the player (i.e. quality of opportunity), but they are small compared to what happens. If a player hits a home run, that's an excellent outcome, regardless of if it was a meatball right down the middle from Craig Breslow. For fielding on the other hand, the "what actually happened" is that a fielder made or didn't make a play. The differences in those are dwarfed by quality of opportunity. There are huge differences in difficulty among balls in play, and there just isn't an equivalent on offense of that. That's not a reason to say WAR is stupid or that defensive metrics are useless, but I think that, especially when we're talking about pre-2001 seasons where defense is not based on location data, only play-by-play, it's completely conceivable that one player who has a whole extra WAR over somebody else actually had a worse season. Now, Valentin had several good years defensively, but this was his best by the numbers. I think it's fair to regress his numbers down a little bit. I would probably still think that Valentin had a better season, by the numbers, but danr isn't making an outrageous case, even if some of his WAR criticisms are misguided.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 14, 2015 6:55:50 GMT -5
Said this is the minor league thread a few days ago, but I think I want Johnson/Owens. Masterson is not an option. Kelly has no command. I know Owens still has to work on his, but scouting reports make it sound more 40-45 than the 30 or whatever command that Kelly has, and a 70 changeup is pretty forgiving. I like that the Ks are coming back and the walks are going down, and it sounds like this slider might be a useful 3rd pitch.
Wright is the other option I'm torn on, but I like his fit as a spot starter/long reliever if necessary. I'm also not confident that Farrell would use him in the role that would maximize his value. Somebody has mentioned this before, but a Wright/Kelly tandem starting spot could be awesome.
I know Owens won't get any consideration because of development/40 man issues (on the other hand, Craig Breslow is on the 40 man), but I think he might be the best option right now.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 12, 2015 14:57:27 GMT -5
Lol at pinch hitting Napoli here. Pretty obvious call with the lefty coming in.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 12, 2015 14:16:59 GMT -5
What percentage of balk calls make any sense? Such a terribly called rule.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 11, 2015 9:59:22 GMT -5
Like I said, he doesn't have to perform at an All-Star level or stay healthy to be worth that money. He needs to be worth something like three-and-a-half wins over that year and a third. I'd bet on that happening. There's also a non-negligible chance of him never being any good again. TJ doesn't have a 100% success rate. Given the risk, you probably have to think he gives you more like 4 wins, which is a lot to ask of a 32 year old who has been inconsistent his whole career. I agree that it's not an obvious call, but I would err on the side of not picking up the option and putting that money towards another starter.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 10, 2015 20:30:06 GMT -5
If Buchholz is down for the season, I think I'd want Owens up taking his place (in addition to Johnson who's already basically in the rotation). Love seeing the Ks again tonight.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 10, 2015 19:45:12 GMT -5
Velo down, now elbow tightness for Buchholz. 2017 could be good though!
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 10, 2015 18:13:24 GMT -5
Jacoby who?
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 8, 2015 23:07:46 GMT -5
Chicago walks off against Toronto! All of a sudden, win this MFY series and we're right back in it.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 8, 2015 12:06:37 GMT -5
Bogaerts right now is slated to hit FA as a 27 year old. I doubt Boras would even want a 10 year deal if he were negotiating an extension. Something like the rest of his team control years + 2-3 years of FA would be more likely I would guess.
Honestly, I don't think a deal gets done with Bogaerts, just as much because of the FO as Boras. Xander isn't the kind of player who is going to get huge arb payments unless he starts hitting for some power, so the risk of going year to year is relatively low. If that happens it's a different story, but otherwise I think they would need some cheap team options for FA years for it to be worth the risk, and I just don't see that happening.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 8, 2015 6:38:56 GMT -5
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 7, 2015 9:55:28 GMT -5
Hopefully Ben Cherington is the next GM that shows up on his caller ID. No. 4.60 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA. 3.69 ZiPS projected ERA. He was legitimately solid before this year.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 6, 2015 12:06:01 GMT -5
Betts has been their best player, but there is a lot of OF competition so I can see how there might not be room for him.
Buchholz is the obvious choice to me - he's 4th in the AL in fWAR and 10th in rWAR - but I think he'll get snubbed because of good but not great ERA.
Bogaerts is deserving, but I'd take Holt over him considering his positional flexibility. I'm guessing X is the sole representative in the end, but maybe they'll surprise me.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 4, 2015 22:35:53 GMT -5
The real question is why is Mookie's fWAR so much lower than his bWAR +2 UZR vs +10 DRS explains most of it.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 4, 2015 14:50:07 GMT -5
Mookie Betts: 2.6 WAR Cole Hamels: 2.0 WAR
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 3, 2015 22:01:32 GMT -5
Noe Ramirez warming up now. Tazawa must be hurt, right?
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