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Post by telson13 on Jun 5, 2021 16:28:56 GMT -5
Who is Johan Mieses and how is he hitting 11 home runs in May and another one last night? More importantly, why is he not listed in our top 60 Minor League players? I read his 12 HR's are tops in all of the minor leagues. Watched him last night and he hit one off a moving train in Worcester. If it stuck on the train, it could have been a REALLY long HR. That shot off the train was awesome. Jim Ed referred to it as the "midnight train to Georgia" in the NESN telecast, which had me cracking up. That bomb and Franchy's moonshot off the top of the batters' eye in dead CF were fantastic. Almost bummed I moved out of Worcester in late '19. At 25, it's not like Mieses is over the hill either.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 5, 2021 16:25:14 GMT -5
...and Scioscia gushing about him. That's like pulling water from a dry river bed. It's usually deep underground, so to have all those compliments surface is a big deal. Really seems like they believe the power is real, and the defense will end up plus in CF. Very encouraging to say the least.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 5, 2021 16:07:43 GMT -5
Just getting a look at this guy. The swing is very noisy, but that's the sort of thing that can be cleaned up - hopefully while improving the contact rate also. I mean the kid is 17 so there's ample time for a few adjustments. I was thinking the same. He also isn't exactly a plodder, although I've seen allusions to it. He's listed 6'3" and 250#, and that looks a little aggressive on the weight end based on that video. It's not like he's a tree-trunk legged, John Kruk-belly guy. For a 19 y/o rookie-baller to be ranked in the top 20 means something, especially when his last actual pro ball was at 17. FG also has a bit of a disparity in the numerical grades versus discussion...Longenhagen describes him as having "thunderous raw power," although he's just got a 55 Raw. His BB:K rates were pretty solid too, and my hope is that they can coach a lot of that noise out and unlock some real game power and even some hitting ability (FG also has him as a future 50 Hit, which is quite good for a 19-y/o power prospect). I also like De La Rosa, given his pitchability despite lack of pitching experience. Would I take it back? Probably, but a significant part of that is homerism that I admit. I loved Beni as a pick and I genuinely believe there's a .320 hitter in there still. It's entirely possible that he just has to make adjustments and learn to hit MLB pitching in the same vein as Bogey and Buxton. That said, FA is coming and he wasn't (and still isn't) putting up numbers that can't be replaced relatively easily. Again, I'd have liked to see more confidence in him and maybe a little less tinkering, but it's not the worst move on a strictly baseball level, beyond the selling low aspect.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2021 22:25:45 GMT -5
Minimal cash outlay and defensive depth with authentic offensive upside. This is exactly the sort of move winning teams make. Depth is grossly underrated, but even moreso when the likely AAA or even AA help is questionable. Duran's power looks pretty real (at least, he's a big, twitchy-explosive guy with a very clear reason: swing change v.2.0), but there's not much positionally beyond him unless Downs suddenly takes a real step forward or Casas goes nuts. Luckily on the pitching end they've got Seabold and Houck, given the remarkable health of the rotation so far and the distinct possibility they don't keep it up.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2021 21:22:23 GMT -5
So, through 54 games:
bWAR leaders
1.5 Robbie Ray 1.3 Anthony Descalfini 1.2 Taijuan Walker 0.9 Corey Kluber 0.9 Martin Perez 0.9 Garret Richards
WPA leaders (lev adjusted)
0.8 Walker 0.8 Descalfino 0.7 Kluber 0.6 Perez 0.5 Richards 0.4 Ray
Current average of bWAR per 30 starts and WPA per 30:
3.4 Perez 3.0 Walker 3.0 Ray 2.6 Descalfino 2.4 Kluber 1.9 Richards
Full data after tonight's game.
And Kluber is down for a long time (which is conflicting because he's such a great pitcher, but also a NYY). Taijuan Walker looks like he may finally be figuring it out, although his stuff isn't what it used to be. Also, the Ortiz quote on Valentine never gets old. Lordy was that guy an atrocious manager for the Sox. Worst in my lifetime, easily, and Kerrigan was...suboptimal. Hobson was pretty mediocre too, although they weren't exactly a well-constructed team then either.
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 1:49:18 GMT -5
I could see Rocker falling a long way. In the first place he's simply not very good. I'm at a loss to understand why he was ever rated so highly. Beyond that he seems like a sweet kid which kid of worries me. I saw a clip of him and he gave the impression his awful outing against Georgia was kind of funny. Now I don't want a pitcher who is shattered by a bad game but I do want a pitcher who is annoyed by a bad game. He also looks pretty soft physically and his dad is just huge which would concern me. He comes across as a happy-go-lucky kid from an upper class family who does not have the kind of killer instinct which benefits a pitcher. That is Kumar Rocker, a happy-go-lucky rich kid who doesn't get fired up and isn't very good. Not wanting Kumar Rocker at #4 is fine, there are certainly at least four players who you could prefer without anyone thinking you are crazy. But COME ON. I get his concerns, perception-wise. I actually get an uneasy feeling with Rocker for *kind* of the same reason. But Pedro used to talk about sitting under a mango tree and got himself taped to a pole on his off day. I can't really think of a half-dozen other sox players in my lifetime, of any stature, who were as frequently goofy. But I can also 100% say without hesitation that he was a pure assassin on his pitching days, and *nobody* else I've seen pitch in my life has come close there. So your point is well-taken.
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 1:42:25 GMT -5
Every media tidbit about the Red Sox intentions boils down to "Nobody has told me anything at all, but here's what I think a smart team should do..." I don’t think going underslot makes any sense given the Red Sox draft position. Maybe it makes sense when you have the first pick of the second or third tier group of prospects but not when you have a shot at one of the top tier of five or six guys. The thing is, "makeup" is a huge part of eventual MLB success, and makeup is the one thing you can't scout from the stands. You'll see a mention like "has a strong work ethic" in rankings (and hence influencing the mocks) based on public statements made by former coaches, but MLB teams that prioritize makeup are going much deeper than that.
It's possible that one of the players ranked, say 6 to 8 or 9, will actually be at the top of their draft board because they're convinced he's got 70 makeup. It's not that unlikely. We just had a guy retire who went 65th in the draft and was the best player, and that's because he had 80 makeup.
Here's the dream: Carlos Correa but at 4. Not only get one of the four best players in the draft, according to your board, but sign him for, say, 8 slot money. I have no idea who that might be; at least a couple of names the names are pretty obvious (House, Jobe, Frelick), but I don't know which of the HS kids would be serious about going to college and which would be bluffing if they held out for more.
Short version: they could absolutely go underslot a bit if that's the guy who's at the top of their board, that's a credible scenario, and if they turn out to be right, it's magic.
By the same logic, the guy at the top of their board may be much likelier to be available at 4 than we think. It's possible, for instance, that Rocker or Leiter has 70 makeup and, is in their mind, a clear #1. Remember how much Lester over-performed his draft ranking -- that was all makeup. Imagine if Leiter or Rocker exceeded their mean projection by that much.
Personally I have little enthusiasm foreither guy and dream of Davis falling to 4. But whoever they take I'll be excited about, immediately.
I get a strong "pitchability" vibe from Leiter. He just seems like he'll become ever more polished. The size/physicality stuff is overrated. For every CC Sabathia there are 20 Ben McDonalds. Leiter has insane spin/rise, and we all know after Koji and Okajima and guys like Daniel Cabrera or 90% of his career Nate Eovaldi that velocity alone doesn't miss bats, especially in the zone. Leiter's also got good command and a deep repertoire, as well as the MLB background, which really does seem to impart a degree of familiarity and comfort for a lot of guys. I definitely prefer him over Rocker, although I sure do like Davis and there's a cadre of SS prospects who should be pushing on the door right around when Bogey might have to move off. It's a good spot to be in. I think what they end up doing really depends on where the talent line separates...if it's 1-2-3 and then the rest, I imagine they go underslot with a guy they really like makeup-wise in the next tier (tangent: makeup is why I *love* Gilberto Jimenez as a prospect...he gets glowing reports, now if he'd only walk more). If a 1-2-3 falls to them, they take him, which represents a "bargain" in and of itself. Screwing up the 4th pick is a really, really big faux pas. If it's kind of a muddle/gradual drop in talent in the top 10, with no clear separation of a small group from the rest...yeah, it seems certain they go underslot for a guy they're really high on, because the allotment difference between 4 and 8-10 is huge. Picking a 60 FV over a 50 is easy. Choosing between 50s is an art. I've been so grumpy with the Sox for 15 months that I really hope they do something impressive, because Bogey and Babyface are the only reason I watch nowadays. I saw all of 5 minutes last year, and when ERod developed myocarditis from COVID I threw my hands up. Guy can't catch a break health-wise. And seeing Mookie sign immediately with LA didn't help either. Not a fan anymore, although he did clarify for me in crystal fashion how much I appreciate Bogey, who clearly sees himself as a Red Sox.
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 1:08:10 GMT -5
I bet we see an online meltdown if they pick Rocker over Leiter lol Me? I’ll happily take either I think people would be surprised but intrigued and ultimately happy with it. Lot of people here were around for the Trey Ball pick so they’re mentally prepared for something like that. That pick is the gift that keeps on giving.
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 0:33:44 GMT -5
If Duran is as bad in the OF as some of these posts indicate, then where does that leave him? This will sound like a snarky response, but it isn't meant to be: it leaves him in the minors, trying to get better at it. Duran was a second baseman in college and he's lost a season of games, so he's still at fewer than 250 games at the position, and he's been doing that while retooling his swing the entire time. At the other extreme, the Mookie Betts comps are ridiculous. He's played a lot more games than Betts did in the outfield and is much less of a natural at the position. Betts' ability to learn how to do seemingly anything at a star level isn't a learning curve we should project on any young players going forward. I really never want to hear a "well Mookie Betts did (insert some thing he learned to do in 20 minutes)." Yes, he did, because getting good at things that other people cannot is what makes him Mookie Betts. That last line is not only GOLD, but it sums up why comps are so brutal. I'm a huge Luis Patiño fan, and I think he's going to have at least some incredible games, if not career. His size, extension, repertoire and stuff remind me of Pedro. But few pitchers in history have had a delivery as consistent as Pedro's. Mookie is just a 3+ Z-score outlier. And I'm still f*cking pissed as hell he bailed. But it's made me appreciate Bogey a million times more (what a champion)...another guy who had to fix and fiddle and work things out despite considerable talent. At least Duran's swing (stance) change version 2.0 has him hitting for more power.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 31, 2020 19:37:52 GMT -5
Well, I found a few answers. I made the classic blunder, aside from the whole land war in Asia thing. You can ignore that request unless you feel like doing a solid and encapsulating why this totally lost year isn’t totally lost at all, lol.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 31, 2020 19:32:29 GMT -5
Anyone know what's going on with undrafted FAs after Rd. 5? Undrafted FAs can be signed for $20K or less...no limit on how many can sign. Seems like as good of a time as any to be a team that pays their minor leaguers more than the rest of the league. I just enjoyed looking back over the COVID thread. I’ve been AWOL so long I thought “11 notices?!” Lol, good times...this pandemic is so much my back (critical care med and viral immunology) that it’s been very...engaging. I’m glad I’m not in clinical practice anymore, because it was a horror show up in MA. Feds blew six weeks doing zilch. They killed baseball. One of my friends from ME (NY fan if you can imagine) actually knows way more about what’s going on with the Sox than me. I’ve no interest. It’s weird...as soon as I saw Eddie had viral myocarditis and was out for the year I said “f*ck it I’m done.” But now that the draft is over and it looks like they might get the 1 next year...did they sign any intriguing FAs? And how good really has their haul been trade-wise? Like, do we know the PTBNLs (roughly?) or who the extra Int’l $ is going to? This year is bizarre...but I’m at least getting curious about next year.
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Post by telson13 on May 15, 2020 12:59:43 GMT -5
What’s the scouting report on Abel? Is there a decent comp for him? I'm generally terrified of HS pitchers and tend to have a "do not draft one in 1st round" philosophy. That said, these are unique circumstances, and if that is the demographic that drops the most...then I think you have to take the guy who could be the #1 HS arm if he is available at #17. This is the scouting report from Fangraphs where he's ranked #8 on their draft BOARD: Agreed. HS pitching is well-demonstrated statistically to be the 1st-rd black hole. But getting a guy like that...tough to pass up. I like Wells too; hit tool looks pretty good, with some wood bat pop in the Cape. Catching is at such a premium (although if I recall the success rate is pretty low). Anyone know what's going on with undrafted FAs after Rd. 5?
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Post by telson13 on Apr 6, 2020 15:29:26 GMT -5
I agree with your sentiment that trying to politicize the moment is counterproductive as we all need to be working together to help those vulnerable, flatten the curve to allow our healthcare workers a chance to breathe and make joint sacrifices to overcome this crisis. However, I want to know one thing..... You do realize that Governor Baker is a Republican right? I don't live in a MA, so I am not to knowledgeable about the state's response and won't comment. I however live in Maryland, another blue state with a Republican Governor who I may not have voted for but believe has done an admirable job facing this crisis. Yes I do, it's kinda the point a republican in control of a blue state. I mean Massachusetts has voted Democrats in every Presidential election I can remember. I voted both Weld (champion) and Baker, but I've voted presidential blue the past 5 or 6 elections. I would've voted HW Bush in '88 if I'd been old enough though. Might've gone McCain if he didn't pick a total nut in Palin. Wow, was that a huge mistake. MA response has been pretty good. HC workers are in rough shape though. Lots of horror stories from former colleagues. No gear, no prep, no protections, cut pay. Most are federal issues. Mike De Wine in Ohio is a R governor in a battleground state and he's been awesome. He was way out in front relative to his peers and the feds, tbh. Our government is behaving like this is a confederacy and not a federal republic. Talk about weak, ineffectual central govt.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 6, 2020 15:23:24 GMT -5
I think this is the point. Death rate: Italy: 12.46% World: 5.55% USA: 2.94% So, we're ahead of the world in this regard. Here’s something I’ll grant: Italy was not a success story. But it is funny to go from #MAGA to “we’re not Italy!” Imagine you have 2000 people infected, like we did in mid-march. Your daily increase is about 30%, like we had in mid-late march. That means your cases double every 2.5 days. So between March 16 and March 31, you have 15 days. That's 6 increments of 2.5 days. So doubling every 2.5 days means 2x2x2x2x2x2=64. You have 64 times as many cases on the 31st as on the 16th. You now have 128,000 cases. It takes roughly 10 days in severe cases to die, and it can be 2-4 weeks if you're kept alive on a ventilator (for acute respiratory distress syndrome, mortality usually ranges from 25% for mild to 50% for severe; it's more like 75% for ventilated COVID patients. So, basically, the people dying on or before April 1 were from cases back on around March 21st or before. If 1000 people have died, it LOOKS like it's 1000/128,000, which is under 1%. Seems good. But the reality is that on March 20 you had closer to 2000 x2 x2 (the 21st is 5 days, or two doubling periods, after the 16th), or 8,000 cases. So a better estimate of your mortality is 1000/8000...looks like Italy now, right? 12.5% FWIW, this happened with SARS back in 2003. Mortality estimates were 4% early, 9.7% once it was over. You will see the US mortality rate rise into the 5-8% range in the next two weeks, provided our case growth rate continues slowing. It's doubling weekly now, which means that after it all, it might still be higher. I can't say for certain, we don't have comprehensive testing. But our mortality rate was 1.4% in late march when cases grew fastest, and as they've slowed we're approaching 3%.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 6, 2020 14:45:38 GMT -5
Fair question. If the USA statistically does better than other countries, does Trump get credit? He won't here with the snowflakes. I also doubt it with the do nothing Democrats but the voters will know. So far, the USA is near the bottom in terms of death rate for countries with a lot of cases If that continues everything will be red. Right. Of course, since we are already not doing better, I guess it is moot. By the way, we are already over 10,000 reported dead, with everyone acknowledging they are dramatically under-reporting. And... do-nothing Democrats? What does that even mean? Inslee and Newsome are probably leading the most successful efforts in America. Cuomo is “doing” what he can, especially since Jared strangely defines national resources as not for states. And at a federal level, Dems have no power to make Trump and his gang of lower-primates do anything. I am certain that at the end of this Trump will declare victory, saying if nothing had been done millions would die and it was just x thousands. And his idiot followers will prove he was literally correct in saying he could kill someone on 5th Avenue and still keep his base... except he’s killing hundreds a day on 5th Avenue. Edit: for numbers, NY reports today that between 180-195 people a die have died at home, almost certainly of Coronavirus, but they are not swabbing dead people. So that is a small example of how under-counted the deaths are at this point. FWIW, I have a background in both viral immunology and I did clinical medicine, with well over 1,000 intubations and plenty of ICU time. This whole situation is right in my wheelhouse and the current administration has bungled it far beyond I could ever have believed when I started going "survival mode alert!" on friends and family in mid January. Really, most people didn't believe it, downplayed it, etc. etc. If you haven't studied it, you just don't recognize it and understand the horrifying scope. I get that. But our 2009 H1N1 response was "complete" (vaccine started, strategic stockpile opened, virus ID'd, neighbors warned and samples exchanged, etc.) It's here if you feel like checking out how this should've gone: www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.htmlSo basically, I get that a lot of people dragged their feet. But Trump and MANY GOP elements and their media outlets went into full denial, misinformation, and blame/distract mode. The failure to test up front is BY FAR the most egregious error. Some Republicans like De Wine and Baker and many others at state levels have been great, but national leadership has failed everywhere except for Anthony Fauci. The science/medicine denial and lack of comprehension in this administration is truly, mind-bindingly staggering. Oh, and the "our death rate is low" argument. Totally spurious. It only looks that way because during geometric growth, as we had in late March, something like 90% of cases were from between March 17th and 30th. But it takes 2-3 weeks for people to die, or get better. So the denominator (cases) in case fatality rate is WAY too high using a quick and dirty calculation. Which is exactly why as our daily growth rate has slowed from 30+% to more like 12-15%, our mortality rate has risen from 1.5% to almost 3%...despite increased testing and identification of more cases overall, including mild ones. There is legitimately zero factual validity to his points, and the subjective part of it, imho, is garbage, made so by prefacing with an epithet. And yeah, while Trump's overall approval is down again by 6%, Andrew Cuomo's is up 27%. It's actually the do-nothing fed GOP that the polls say people are concerned about: navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-navigator-daily-6/ Rightfully so.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 28, 2020 18:06:33 GMT -5
Hey folks, second year PA student in Boston here. Stepping in to disagree strongly with essentially everything that Jimed has said. Please take this seriously, and for the love of god, let’s not politicize this issue of public health and safety. This is not about Democrats and Republicans. On major clarification: the main issue here is not the kill rate of the virus, though as has been stated here, it absolutely is a much more dangerous virus than the flu. The major issue is with the overcrowding of healthcare capacity due to this virus’s ability to spread through unknowing carriers. This has created a nearly exponential spread that hasn’t yet slowed down. Nearly 20% of cases require hospitalization, and at the current rate of spread, this means the demand for beds will push an already stretched system (and that’s under normal circumstances) beyond its capacity. There are a limited number of ventilators in this country. There are a limited number of protective masks and gloves. We are already seeing shortages. Most importantly, there are a limited number of doctors, nurses, PAs, NPs, lab technicians, and so on. That is the danger. If we run over capacity, people cannot get the treatment they need. It would be a devastating outcome. Stay inside as much as your work/needs allow, and as Dunne put so succinctly: wash your hands. Yeah, of closed cases worldwide the CFR is 18%. Estimates are from 18-50% of cases are asymptomatic, and testing is often only being done in high-risk cases. But the CFR is much closer to the 1918 influenza (2% US, 10% in India) than it is to swine flu (0.02%) or even the 1957 Asian flu (0.5%). HC capacity in this country can handle maybe 120-150K (at best) ICU beds. It's not just ventilators, it's MD/DOs, PAs, NPs, MD/DO residents, ICU nurses, respiratory therapists, etc. With 5-7% of cases requiring critical care, and half our country's beds full already (people still have cancer surgeries, heart attacks, flu, car accidents, etc), we can handle 1 million cases overall, with 60,000 needing critical care. After that, mortality goes to about 8% minimum, because every critical care case will die. Yeah, wash your hands, stay home, and write your congresspeople and US senators that we need to get PPE to workers.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 28, 2020 17:58:32 GMT -5
Just opened up this thread and this is the first post. We can call this Exhibit A of just how wrong and misguided people can be, that's the nice way of putting it. I know we aren't supposed to get political on here but I have a pretty good idea where this thought originated. My daughter is a critical care nurse and she calls me crying every day with worry about how badly prepared they are for this. Not enough ventilaters, not enough masks, spreading the virus in the hospital because of a lack of supplies. If I get going I might just get kicked off this site. All I know is that proper leadership and fore thought from the beginning would have helped a lot more than the lies. You mean to tell me that the Great America couldn't produce these things in less than a month. Yup we are making America great again for sure. And now all they can say is stop pointing fingers. I for one will not stop pointing fingers, the man has literally cost many many lives and they still support him as he said they would. November is coming and I don't plan on being quiet. What a load of crap that is. Here's Dr. Fauci: www.facebook.com/cnsnewscom/videos/213870806487888/Nah, here's Dr. Fauci. Don't confuse recognizing that him keeping his job is critically important or giving credit for a single instance of proper action with respect or support for the man:
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Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2020 1:46:11 GMT -5
Correction: FTR it's the screening tests that yield false positives. Confirmation tests that test directly for the virus are 100% accurate. The numbers of cases are likely much higher than is being reported. The denominator can only be the number of people who have been confirmed. The true # could be 10 fold. The problems experienced in Italy is the same problem that could happen here if we didn't take the drastic measures we are now. There just aren't enough hospital beds for everyone, if the virus spread through the states that quickly (and it may be now) we could easily be no different. See South Korea and the Diamond Princess where there was wholesale testing on a massive scale. Yeah, there are def more cases than reported, which means true case-fatality is lower than current, but it’s more widespread.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2020 1:43:47 GMT -5
Sooo, question. If Ebola and SARS were far more deadly and if the Swine Flu killed 12,000 Americans, why was there so much less media and panic ? Ebola has never gotten out in the US. There have been under a dozen cases, all contained. I can guarantee a mass panic if it got out the way COVID-19 has. Similarly, SARS only infected 8,000 people worldwide. This is already far more widespread. Also, Ebola requires direct contact for spread. It has minimal pandemic potential. This virus is on pace for 2 billion cases worldwide by the end of May, with between 20 and 100 million deaths. Swine flu was aggressively thwarted in 2009...I know because I did 3 ICU months that winter. Oseltamivir, immediate low-threshold testing, reporting to public health, negative pressure rooms. Flu usually kills about 50K annually, most from secondary bacterial pneumonia in very young or old. I’ve done both clinical medicine and years of virus research, and this scared the shit out of me back around New Years when there were first reports of a “new viral pneumonia” in China. It is exactly what I feared with a slightly lower case fatality rate that is still quite high. People shouldn’t be panicking but they sure as hell should get that this is heart-attack serious.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2020 1:35:57 GMT -5
There is no pandemic. Corona virus has a lower death rate than any flu. There are more people who have recovered from it than now have it. The media, government and big pharma has gone insane in their crying wolf. If you are between the ages of 10 and 50 and are not immunocompromised , you have a 0.2% chance of dying if you get it and that number is probably high. Also, please don't get the vaccine, which is one of the new ones that permanently alter your DNA and is not going to be tested nearly enough before it's released. Once people get bored with the nonstop coverage, the news will let it go and it'll just be the normal viral cold that it is. Usually we agree on baseball, but I’ll tell you that from a viral immunology/epidemiology standpoint, basically every single thing you’ve said here is wrong. Except the low risk under 50, although 40-49 is more like 0.5% and mortality across the range will go up as case volume exceeds ICU capacity (about 800k-1M cases nationally). Right now 20% require hospitalization and 5-6% critical care. Once the beds are full, all critical cases will die, because they require blood pressure support and especially, high levels of supplemental oxygen. Best-case case fatality from South Korea (broad testing) is about 0.8%, and that’s with an intact healthcare system. This is more akin to the 1918 flu, which had mortality rates around 2-4% (as high as 10% in India), and a global attack rate around 30-35%. Humanity has no immunity. There is no vaccine; the only one currently in testing is from Moderna in Cambridge MA and uses non-replicative viral RNA. It most certainly does not alter your genetics in any way. That’s silly. In any case, that’s 14 months away best-case. Active cases are doubling every 2.5 days in the US, portending 120,000 by April 1 and >25 million by April 21. Non of my friends still working in clinical medicine have any clean protective gear. Some have to reuse the same mask all day, others have to bring it home and disinfect it themselves. The whole situation was and is being, badly botched. US led the world yesterday in new cases. Yay, we’re #1.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 3, 2020 17:12:37 GMT -5
I’m not thrilled with the idea of a Jeter playing for the Sox. It feels wrong. WRONG!
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Post by telson13 on Jan 2, 2020 21:18:26 GMT -5
Betts and Price will cost about $57-60M together. LAD are about $37M under CBT and probably want to stay under due to debt servicing. So the Sox would need to take back about $30M in salary. Possibilities are (salaries in AAV): Pollock, 12, and Turner, 16 Pollock, Kelly, 8 and Pederson, 9 (arb estimate) Pederson and Jansen, 16. Each package has at least one expiring salary to save on ‘21 payroll. Pederson and Pollock would be a platoon for 20, or Turner could play first or second. Then, build a prospect package (Gonsolin/May and Ruiz is my preference). Pollock and Turner would work, though I think LA probably still likes Turner at that salary. Pollock/Pederson and $5-10M the other way works too.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 2, 2020 21:08:38 GMT -5
Any trade package coming back from the Dodgers for Betts or Price or both that does not include Downs is unacceptable I’d take May, Ruiz, and Lux all over Downs. Verdugo, too, by a long shot. I think Downs is a solid prospect but I don’t see him becoming a cornerstone. Seems more like a .270/25 guy to me, but who knows? Personally, I’d prefer the elite SP prospect, all-around young C, or the 2b option with apparent pop. Honestly, if the Sox could work out the salaries and get Stripling or Verdugo, May, and Ruiz, it’d make sense to move Mookie (and Price) and go hard after Mookie next winter, when they’d have some added salary flexibility and have reset.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 31, 2019 0:39:07 GMT -5
Darwinzon Hernandez for a full season could be difference maker without adding salary. Maybe Tanner Houk could be introduced in a relief role if he looks strong enough in the spring, but they may well need him as a 5th starter once the salary reduction impact is complete. It’s certainly a possibility. I think both Houck and Mata could be broken in in an opener-style situation in the 5 spot, providing bulk innings but also serving as middle-late options (6-8th inning). Feltman might also be a contributor if he rebounds from last year. I think with full years for Darwinzon and Taylor, maybe some rebound from Barnes and Brasier, more solid work from Walden and Workman (who I think could still be very, very good given that he had a clear approach change that explains his performance)...the bullpen could be quite solid.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 27, 2019 16:14:30 GMT -5
Thames is an obvious candidate but I think he'll go for more than they want to spend. Greg Bird might be a fit. He has power and can take a walk. The hit tool is questionable but if he stays healthy, for awhile it seemed like he could be a 30 HR guy for the Yankees. Maybe he could be for the Red Sox, and for very cheap. At this point if not Thames, I'd take a flier on Bird. Of course I would have taken a flier on Shaw as well. We'll see. Doing absolutely nothing makes no sense unless they really think that Peraza at 2b and Chavis at 1b every day is the answer. If it is, we're going to be in for a very long year. Good defensively too.
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