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Post by telson13 on Mar 8, 2019 2:29:00 GMT -5
For example, Devers has a career 7.7% BB/24.4% K and 15/47/38 LD/GB/FB breakdown. He also posted a low .281 BABIP. He’s historically put up LD rates over 20% and BABIPs in the low-mid .300s in the minors. Ronald Acuna Jr had similar minor-league traits as a hitter (with even higher BABIPs, probably helped by his speed) with similar LD/GB/FB rates, and Acuna hit .293 last year with slightly higher K and BB rates (but not markedly so), and a very similar 18/42/39 breakdown...just a much higher BABIP and an extremely high HR/FB rate (as well as a significant edge in hard contact). To me, Devers last year reminds me of his slow start in Salem in 2016. I think he’ll turn a corner as he adjusts to the leap in stuff, and his contact quality will rise as he makes those adjustments. I think he’s probably a true-talent .320-.330 BABIP hitter, based on approach and what I think will ultimately be an all-fields LD approach.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 8, 2019 2:10:41 GMT -5
Idk if anyone has espn Insider, and has any snippets to share on this, but Raffy Devers seems to be opening some eyes this spring. Certainly has gotten the notice of Cora, and some media folks. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26141417/expect-monster-year-red-sox-third-baseman-rafael-deverswww.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/03/06/rafael-devers-good-place-according-alex-cora/afZ08oGB7nvVutIIasg0SK/story.htmlIt seems like Devers got a little complacent last off-season, which isn’t remotely surprising for a just-21 y/o. To his great credit, he seems to have learned from that mistake right away. Consensus opinions on his last year from prospect hounds seemed to temper early assessments significantly. My hope (and belief) is, he comes back with a vengeance. Expect better range in the field and improved pitch selection. I think Carita is capable of throwing up a .300/30/100 line and inserting himself into the 3 spot. And if not him this year, maybe JBJ does it (wouldn’t THAT be a treat to watch?!). FWIW, I know we all expect some regression from Mookie and JDM, but I don’t think it’s a given it’ll be all that much. And both are certainly capable of even *more*. But even if they DO slip back a bit, Beni, Raffy, Bogey, and JBJ with his new swing (and even new bat/approach “Brock Holt!”) all seem like they could take *significant* leaps forward. Lots to be excited about with this offense, especially with Pedey getting in there at 2b this week. The 30/100 is probably coming sooner or later, but I don't see a .300 hitter with the contact rates he's shown in the big leagues so far. I expect to see some power growth and maybe a better approach, but it's very rare to see players make big jumps in contact rate. Yeah, I’m not saying I’m “confident” he’ll do it this year, but I think it will come. He’s barely 22. The HOF rate for players who debut 20 or younger and qualify for ROY with his level of production at that age is something ridiculous like 20% (If forced I’ll search a ref but I think it was an Acuna article on fg). He’s basically at an age where high-A would be appropriate and AA quite good. And he’s already got over a season’s worth of PA in MLB. I think there’s a significant non-zero chance he hits that this year (idk, 20% maybe?) and a fairly high probability (60% maybe?) he does it within 3 years. Within a margin of error, I mean...Andujar’s line last year would essentially qualify *for me in the context of my assessment of him*. Obviously it’s a LOT tougher to actualize EACH of those milestones. But a guy hitting .297/27/92 is, real productionwise, essentially that hitter. To reach and exceed .300/30/100 and/or hit .300/.370/.530 (900 OPS) Is say is probably half or a third as likely. I still think he ends up hit over (or equal to) power, when as people have noted, the violence in his swing needs more control. I think my bullishness on his contact rate improving is largely tied to his youth. I think,with the aggressiveness of his swing, that his first 1000-1500 PA in MLB are going to be a LOT about learning how pitchers attack him and catching up to the dramatic difference in breaker/offspeed quality/command versus what he saw in the low minors and AA. I think that’s a big part of why sites/evaluators backed up on his hit tool last year. But I think that’s a mistake. His minors-level K rate was consistently mid-uppers teens, and I think that’s where he’ll ultimately settle if (when) he learns to be more selective with his ferocity. I see a little New Britain-Pawtucket-early career Mo Vaughn in him. I think Devers will be a lot better conditioned, and his defense at 3rd marginally above-average. But he should soon learn to pepper and clear the wall with oppo shots and know he doesn’t have to fully unload to do so. The bat control and contact rate/quality should improve in concert. Look at Vaughn or Papi at a similar age and they were still in the minors. He’s doing basically exactly what they did in their first 700 PA, just 2-4 years younger. Fenway rewards LHH with all-fields power and I think in turn helps that type of hitter to develop.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 7, 2019 1:19:11 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Mar 7, 2019 0:46:37 GMT -5
Idk if anyone has espn Insider, and has any snippets to share on this, but Raffy Devers seems to be opening some eyes this spring. Certainly has gotten the notice of Cora, and some media folks. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26141417/expect-monster-year-red-sox-third-baseman-rafael-deverswww.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/03/06/rafael-devers-good-place-according-alex-cora/afZ08oGB7nvVutIIasg0SK/story.htmlIt seems like Devers got a little complacent last off-season, which isn’t remotely surprising for a just-21 y/o. To his great credit, he seems to have learned from that mistake right away. Consensus opinions on his last year from prospect hounds seemed to temper early assessments significantly. My hope (and belief) is, he comes back with a vengeance. Expect better range in the field and improved pitch selection. I think Carita is capable of throwing up a .300/30/100 line and inserting himself into the 3 spot. And if not him this year, maybe JBJ does it (wouldn’t THAT be a treat to watch?!). FWIW, I know we all expect some regression from Mookie and JDM, but I don’t think it’s a given it’ll be all that much. And both are certainly capable of even *more*. But even if they DO slip back a bit, Beni, Raffy, Bogey, and JBJ with his new swing (and even new bat/approach “Brock Holt!”) all seem like they could take *significant* leaps forward. Lots to be excited about with this offense, especially with Pedey getting in there at 2b this week.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 7, 2019 0:34:23 GMT -5
Also...Edmonds should be in the HOF. Absolutely. The idea of Harold Baines getting in and Edmonds falling off after one go-round...ugh. Looking at his fg page, Edmonds had a six-year stretch where he was over 6 WAR each year, and retired with a 132 wRC+. If he’d gotten his due credit for actually *being* a terrific defender and not just trying to look like one, he’d be in there. That narrative always pissed me off.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 7, 2019 0:29:07 GMT -5
Jackie’s got above-avg speed (75th %ile or so in MLB) but he’s not a burner. His CF defense is likely to age well as he depends on outstanding instincts and superb routes with a great first step. Like 75%ile overall, but even more crazily... bottom 15% or so among CF (per Savant). And yet he might be the best defensive CF in the game! Agree about the aging well. Was thinking the other day about Jim Edmonds as a potential defensive comp. Another guy with well below-avg speed for a CF who relied on great reads and instincts. He had injury problems, but other than that aged well - Fangraphs rates him as essentially a net positive defender until his age 37 season. (Also has like 65 career WAR - deserved better than a first ballot HOF exit.) Wow, yeah, that’s actually a really terrific call re: Edmonds. I’d never even thought of it but it’s dead-on. He didn’t get credit for being as good of a defender as he was because of his lack of speed and the stupid “he’s trying to make highlight catches” b.s. (and I think those highlight catches were exactly because of instincts allowing him to *make* them), but yeah...he was super dependable out there for a LONG time. Just serves to strengthen my confidence in JBJ long-term. Playing solid defense in CF at 37 is a pretty rare thing, but I think those *types* of players are the best bet for it. Even more reason for the Sox to extend Jackie now before he starts hitting like Edmonds, too.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 22:48:07 GMT -5
Unless they really think Chatham can be a plus defender with a high OBP - becuase he doesn’t look to hit for much power - I would think Xander is a high priority given what’s available in the free agent market. I wish they had made this decision last year, because, if they think keeping Xander will be too cost-excluse to pull off given the other deals that need to be done and their aversion to being over the luxury tax, they missed a hell of an opportunity this fall when Seattle trade dJuan Segura and his very affordable contract for unimpressive return. Make no mistake, I want to keep him for at least 5 more years, but if they think 5 x $22M (my guess on fair market value) or more is too much, and couldn’t get that done in 2018 either before the season or after the World Series, then they should’ve traded for Segura in Nov/Dec 18 and then traded Xander for all they could get. Chatham is 24 and hasn't even made it to Portland yet. I wouldn't put much stock in his numbers because he's old for the leagues he has been in. I don't even think he's a sure bench player in the majors, let alone a replacement for Xander. (although people do seem to underrate Lin who I think is much more of a sure thing than Chatham is) Xander might be the best player available next season, though I'm not sure what his market will look like. Obviously, the Red Sox would have to be near the top of the list. I don't really think the Yankees are a good fit for him because Xander is not suited for Yankee Stadium at all and re-signing Gregorius makes way more sense for them because he's perfect for their stadium. As you know, I’m headed to the puzzle factory for a moderate case of Linsanity 2.0. I have little faith in Chatham as more than a good utility player who can man SS solidly; I think Lin can be league-average and possibly a 3-4 WAR player with some experience. At his best (10% outcome) he’d be good for .280-.300/.350-.360/.400-.440, with solid to plus defense at SS. That would make Bogey expendable (let’s hope Lin gets significant time this year and plays well), or at least dramatically improve the Sox’s bargaining position. I’d like to keep Bogey, very much, but at 8/$200M that’s just way too rich. I just don’t get how the Sox can’t get any of these guys to sign mutually friendly deals. It boggles my mind. Like, JBJ-Hicks/Pollock. There’s a clear template. 7/$84M is fair for both sides. Get it done. Bogey? 8/$160M. Fair, done. End their careers in Boston, set for life.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 22:37:41 GMT -5
I don't think Hicks' contract extension will wind up being comparable to what JBJ will get on the open market. Hicks' deal was extremely club friendly. The money he's making is Chris Young type money adjusted for inflation. JBJ is a gold glover defensively plus he'd be crazy not to see what his new swing brings him offensively because if he can really be a force offensively, combined with that defense, there's no way in hell he's signing for that little (in baseball economy. In my real life I'd be grabbing a pen..). Hicks has a wRC+ in the last two years of 129, and he hit 27 HR last year while walking 14% of the time and whiffing less than 20%. He’s had a combined 8.2 fWAR. JBJ has a wRC+ well under 100, and 5 fWAR the past 2 years. Hicks is, very arguably, the better player right now. Pollock got 4/$60M as a FA with similar defense, a better peak (over 6 fWAR vs 5.2 for JBJ), and similar value the last two years despite injury. Teams generally pay more willingly for offense, too. I definitely think JBJ’s price goes up if (when) he has a good offensive year this year, but I doubt he gets a much better deal than Pollock unless he does get his wRC+ around 120 and continues to play stellar defense. Hicks is a pretty good CF, too, though not in the other two’s class, I don’t think. But the WAR values speak for themselves. That’s the market for an extension right now. JBJ might bet on himself, but at $15M plus AAV over 5+ years, he’s probably gone from Boston.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 22:27:30 GMT -5
Haha, the Pirates are batting Kramer and Newman back to back. Everyone knows Costanza is the hitting guru. His ideas on changing the uniform fabric for improved fluidity are sheer gold
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 22:26:29 GMT -5
Haha, the Pirates are batting Kramer and Newman back to back. Made my day. What a catch.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 13:40:25 GMT -5
www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/03/06/for-chris-sale-money-isn-everything-when-comes-contract-negotiations/Yal7KXZEjWrXh1UMWChDBK/story.html?et_rid=1807433112Out of everyone that is coming to an end of team control, Sale seems most likely to sign an extension first to me. I wouldn't be surprised if it's at a discount as well and that it happens this spring. This article gives insight into how Sale is different than most other professional athletes in that he doesn't value money, money, and money as his top 3 priorities. I'll guess 6/$200M (which is kind of funny that could be considered a discount) Next up, I'd guess that JDM negotiates an additional year or two to add to his current contract this fall before he opts out. He's well worth the money especially because of the effects of having him as a teammate. Funny, if just read that myself and came looking for thoughts. I’d think Sale’s market is probably exactly Kershaw: He’d be signing his extension at the same age Kershaw just did; Kershaw is more accomplished, but not nearly so much more than the hardware would indicate. Both have health questions, and both are the premier LH in their leagues. Obviously, Kershaw’s health issues are popping up again, and we’ll see if Sale’s do. I think I’d prefer the Sox go 7/210, and lower the AAV a smidge, but in the $30M AAV range feels right. I’d love to see the Sox extend JBJ on a Hicks-like deal. I think the 6/70-8/88 range would be fair for both sides, especially in light of Pollock’s deal. Smart move would be to work out a 7-8 year deal for Benintendi right now, too. Escalating salaries that would roughly reflect his arbsalaries, and buy out several FA years in the $12-15M range. Rodriguez is yet another guy who would be a great extension candidate. Maybe a 6-year with a team option, and the same front-end salary escalation while buying out FA years at reasonable cost (Carlos Carrasco might be a good blueprint). I’d hope JDM would sacrifice his opt-outs for maybe an additional year and a small bump (to $25M) in AAV. Mookie...I posted elsewhere but in the wake of Machado/Harper, how about a crescendo-decrescendo 10/$350M year where AAV peaks in the middle, around $40M? Probably can’t do ‘em all, but waiting will just add $, and ?s.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 3:16:12 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the better and better Hicks’s signing is for the Sox in JBJ negotiations. I mean, they’re very similar in age, both play CF well, and have similar overall value. Plus, JBJ’s more defensively-minded but doesn’t have the offense of Hicks. Given that clubs more readily pay for offense...well, his market value is right there to see. And Pollock signed for 4/$60M with an option, at 31 but in FA. So 5-7 years, $10-15M AAV is his market right now. Lower end AAV, higher end years might wrap him up, and provide some lux tax breathing room, while keeping him in the Sox uni for life.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 3:05:59 GMT -5
JBJ's one of the most controversial players on the team, it seems. So many rooting for his exit, and about the same voting for waiting longer on him to develop into a consistent, at least average hitter, with potential for much more (anybody who can hit three homers and two doubles in a game, and go on incredible hot streaks when he's on). Is the consensus opinion for the non-believers that the Sox can slide Benintendi into center field, to take the place of JBJ, and then have someone like Chavis play left-field? Right now there doesn't seem to me to be anyone available to fill the right-fielder's role if Betts took over CF. On the surface that seems to make sense, financially, and also opening up a position for maybe Chavis or Swihart to fill. Would Swihart even be a candidate for LF though? There would probably be a drop-off in overall outfield defense if JBJ was let go if Sox decide to play someone in the organization to fill whatever opening would result from letting JBJ go, since there doesn't seem to be anyone in the organization who is a natural outfielder, with good defensive attributes. I suppose JDM could spend a lot more time in the outfield, which would seem to make sense, as his defensive inadequacies would probably be offset by his offensive output. To me it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to trade for a JBJ replacement, or sign a free agent. Personally, I am hoping JBJ has a great all-around 2019, and is then willing to re-sign with Sox for a hometown discount, considering his erratic seasonal, hitting stats. I’d like to see Chavis get some LF experience; he has solid speed, and a plus arm, so you’d hope he could be an adequate or even good defensive LF with enough reps...the tools are there for it at least. I’m not a big proponent of Benintendi in CF (as you say he doesn’t have the arm for RF; Chavis might but that’s a big RF in Fenway, and especially deep in RCF, with that risky short wall headed towards the pole), but he’s probably adequate there in the absence of a better defensive option. And Mookie would probably be a terrific CF. He’s got plenty of arm, accuracy, good speed, and takes good routes. But I’m also kind of with jimed about making an overture to JBJ about signing an extension. Hicks’s 7/$70 deal is an ideal template for JBJ. Jackie’s got above-avg speed (75th %ile or so in MLB) but he’s not a burner. His CF defense is likely to age well as he depends on outstanding instincts and superb routes with a great first step. He also has a terrific arm, so he could most certainly play an outstanding defensive RF. So even if his speed declines he’s probably still average or better out there no matter where he plays, probably plus. And I really do have confidence in his swing changes. He doesn’t walk like Hicks, and his offensive production hasn’t reached Hicks’s level (nearly 130 wRC+ the last two years), but I think it can and will. I think the swing adjustments he’s made will improve his consistency and create better production from his contact. I honestly believe that he could approach his minor league numbers only with more power. He could very reasonably be a .280/.360/.500 hitter or even better, provided he, say, stops cold streaks after 2-3 weeks, not 5-6. I think the new approach helps him do that. At half a year younger than Hicks, JBJ on say, a 6/$72 deal would be very reasonable and probably a steal. Hell, make it 8/$88 to top Hicks. By the end of that deal he’s hopefully approaching RS-for-life territory, and tbh $10M-12M AAV for even an above-avg 4th OF isn’t really unreasonable (Pearce is getting $6.5M...adjusted for inflation it’ll prob look more like $8M in 8 years). My bet is that Jackie’s closer to a 5-win player this year than a 2. That’s terrific value. And at that level of production, if they DID want to trade him, he would return a TON if he looked like a perennial 4-5 win player with that defense.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 2:34:41 GMT -5
E-Rod’s new slider looks pretty good! I just found this new toy, and Rodriguez was the first guy I looked at. He hasn’t historically gotten great drop, but his horizontal movement (his cutter almost has some screwball effect) is terrific. Not a lot of spin, though...which doesn’t surprise me at least on 4-seam and old SL cuz the first doesn’t ride much and the latter doesn’t drop much. But the run on the 4 is great and the new slider looks nasty, so we’ll see. baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=593958#pb_FC
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Post by telson13 on Mar 4, 2019 15:45:44 GMT -5
Also, Mike Shawaryn is looking like he could provide some help this year. He’s kind of lost in the shuffle, and he won’t break into the rotation barring catastrophe, but I see a potentially pretty good multi-inning reliever/swingman who’s hell on RHH and might get tough on LHH if that CH keeps developing.
Right now, the Sox don’t really have any flashy prospects coming, because nearly all of them have major flaws (Chavis his defense, Darwinzon his command, Shawaryn his lack of an avg or better third pitch, Feltman his lack of experience, Lakins his durability, etc.). But each of those players do have some outstanding characteristics (Chavis his power and probably underrated hitting, Hernandez his elite pure stuff, Shawaryn his nasty arm angle/look, Feltman his two 65/70 pitches, Lakins his four above-average pitches and multi-inning relief capability). The Sox actually have pretty good upper-level depth, at least as far as guys who can contribute even if they’re not sure-fire stars. There’s a lot of potential there for meaningful low-cost contribution.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 4, 2019 15:19:56 GMT -5
When was the last time a Boras client took the extension, especially one who is increasingly showing growth in the advanced metrics that make for a large, compelling free-agency book? I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze, especially if Boras sets his asking price at $20-25 million annually. Whoever comes to the Red Sox first willing to sign an extension should get it. I was just joking around with my comment. Varitek signed an extension without a care for the market and he was with Boras. So it can happen. Strasburg’s huge deal was almost definitely below what he’d have gotten as a FA, too. In the end, it’s up to the player and their desires.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 4, 2019 15:17:20 GMT -5
That is just a terrific article. Must-read material if you’re aSox fan, and want a peek at the revolutionary change in organizational hitting philosophy.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 4, 2019 15:04:51 GMT -5
Chavis has that slight elevation off the plane that was mentioned above. He's had that since he came out of high school. The ball always seemed to jump off his bat and that doesn't appear to have changed. I know there's some skepticism but he's a hitter, I believe. He's had to take a few steps toward maturity, what with hiding the injury and the suspension. It can't be easy for a teenager coming into a professional organization, but he made it a little harder on himself. With a few years in the system under his belt, I'll trust that stuff is behind him now. But the bat plays, it has since he signed. Yeah, he’s always had the slight uppercut and the excellent bat speed. I had high hopes for him after being drafted, and I’ll admit that they were a bit shaken until his breakout (tho he was young, and you never give up on a guy struggling for a few years at that age). When he broke out, I was kinda shocked at the power...I knew *some* of it was there, but making a run at 40 HR in the minors is quite a feat. I kinda had his upside pegged as more like, he’d take a few more walks and maybe boost the BA/OBP to go with 15-25 HR. Now after the power surge...idk, there’s something about him, his development, the Statcast results from the AFL with eye-popping exit velos...I genuinely get this sense that he’s one of those hitters who just keeps adding skills to his bucket. Now I realize I’m dreaming on him as a *plus* hitter, not just a 50, and a guy whose IsoD maybe starts creeping towards 0.080-0.090 instead of 0.050-0.060, maybe the K rate starts creeping down. I’ve always kinda felt the prospect-hound evals on him were kinda selling him short, maybe because he’s relatively short himself. But I’m really starting to *believe* it, and see him as a good bet to reach (and redefine) his ceiling. Basically, one of those guys we refer to as “a professional hitter.” Very, very excited to see him get some major league cuts this year.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 23:45:28 GMT -5
Figured the back fields should have their own thread. And what better way to kick it off than to post that the enigma himself, Christopher Acosta, is in Fort Myers. Acosta is Like a giant squid...he occasionally surfaces from the deep to remind us of those lurking beasts in the ocean of the Sox farm, but...he always seems to promptly disappear and become the stuff of near-legend. What a bizarre road he’s had.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 23:39:33 GMT -5
Lol, true...but I think orion may have a point as well. These aren’t exactly new issues for him command-wise. Probably a big part of why he was available/low-cost to the Sox. Edit: in fairness, the “stuff” wasn’t always what it was either, but the high effort’s always affected his command and colored the opinions of evaluators. It’s still incredible now, tho. True but he's also only 22 and has experienced changes in his stuff as well as his body as he matured. Not to mention the jitters he must have felt in front of the mukkymucks. (lol, correction for mukkymucks is schmucks). Yeah, don’t get me wrong...The Evolution is coming. His spin rates are just incredible. His velocity borders on elite. If they could harness those moving parts and increase his fluidity, a big boy like that should be able to be a frontline starter going deep in games. I’m optimistic about the command for the reasons you say, but it wouldn’t be fair to expect/predict a jump from 40 to 60. If he *can* get to a 50/50 control/command, he might just be a strong 3/low-end 2 on stuff alone. Beyond that...well, wecan definitely dream. That stufff...just wow. If he really CAN put it together, he’d be one of those guys who’s must-watch. Totally unrelated, but it got me thinking about Chavis. He *really* looks like a hitter. His bat speed seems to border plus-plus to me. I know he never had a shot as a SS, but man, if he could figure out 2b, what a coup that would be. He’d have a well-above-avg arm there, it’s just the footwork part (lol, “just”). But, like Hernandez finding his command/control, Chavis finding a defensive home where he can be solidly average...I think his bat will play anywhere. When he’s going all-fields, he’s just fantastic.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 22:17:18 GMT -5
Look at how dominant Jackie was in his 2018 rankings of several important categories (by all rights this should have led to much better production with some better luck); I think Jackie has a good chance to rake this year as he continues to hone his swing and has an idea what he wants to do now. Lol, I posted the link to that page in the ST thread, talking about his offseason swing work. It’s really impressive, right?! 18th in MLB in avgEV. It’s just his avgLA stinks (12% last year, a little better than previously, but def influenced by way too many hard grounders, which are almost automatic outs). He’s on the cusp of a production leap if he bought into Wallenbrock’s instruction during the offseason. Sox should make Ted Williams/John Underwood’s “The Science of Hitting” requires reading on joining the organization.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 22:03:50 GMT -5
Agreed. First impressions: his fastball seems to have natural cut, and can be overpowering, especially against LHB. But the command looked shaky. He does seem more willing to attack against LHB, so maybe it’s partially a confidence thing? Either that or it's spring training. Lol, true...but I think orion may have a point as well. These aren’t exactly new issues for him command-wise. Probably a big part of why he was available/low-cost to the Sox. Edit: in fairness, the “stuff” wasn’t always what it was either, but the high effort’s always affected his command and colored the opinions of evaluators. It’s still incredible now, tho.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 22:01:07 GMT -5
Look at his exit velo and hard-hit %ile. He was 18th in all of MLB for avg exit velo. He also has solid plate discipline, and he’s going to get even more walks if he becomes a more dangerous hitter. His xwOBA is right around 75th %ile. Post-ASB his OPS was 0.827. His main issue has been hitting down on the ball out-of-plane. It’s why he gets tied up inside and rolls over too much. He had a barrel% last year over 10, which is very good. It’s been rising throughout his career. He’s also steadily increased his LD%, and last year, especially after the swing change, his GB rate dropped. He has one step to take, and that’s staying in-plane and increasing his launch angle. He started doing that in the second half last year. If he’s in-plane he’s going to have more leeway in his timing, the whiffs should drop a little, and the issues he’s had with covering up one hole but creating another (like the FB inside issue) will decrease. The disconnect between his avgEV/hard-hit% and xwOBA isn’t because he’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk enough, it’s because his contact, while excellent, has too often been on the ground. And that’s borne out by the similarity of xwOBA and xSLG %iles. Given his quality of contact, his xSLG should be higher, but it’s relatively low due to the xSLG of hard GB (a disproportionate fraction of his contact) being so low (something like 0.150 if I recall correctly). He strikes out a fair amount, but not so much so that it should inordinately suppress his expected production. He also struggles with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but the in-plane approach, again, should reduce whiffs by increasing the coincident time of the bat and ball over the plate. JDM’s specifically referred to that as a benefit he’s noticed...the ability to make in-swing adjustments to spin. I really don’t think it’s all that much of a leap for JBJ. Ted Williams first talked about this decades ago, when he talked about the optimum swing being a slight uppercut. He didn't use terms like squaring up the ball and keeping in-plane, but that's what he meant. The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s what’s so crazy to me...Ted describes basically these exact issues in “The Science of Hitting,” and it still amazes me that it’s essentially taken 30+ years for the baseball world to catch up. And really, it’s the way for JBJ to beat the shift: increasing his avg launch angle (by an across-the-board contact means, since obviously hitting a bunch more pop-ups would increase his avg angle but not be a good thing) from around 10-12% into even the 15-18% range and staying in-plane to reduce his GB rate...it nullifies the value of the shift against him because LD and FB (especially L-to-LF in Fenway) are going over INF heads and often, off or over the wall. BTW, I **really** wish announcers, when discussing this stuff, would more often give Williams his due. The guy was not only incredibly skilled hand-eye-wise, but his *thinking* re: hitting (and specifically, *production* in the context of contact) was truly genius. Kind of like Hedy Lamarr and her ideas on frequency-hopping...many decades before their times. True genius is arguably reflected in how long it takes the rest of the world to catch up to ones’ ideas.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 2, 2019 22:38:45 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Mar 2, 2019 22:38:15 GMT -5
With the way he gets on base, and plus baserunning, yeah...if he’s who he was in the second half (and as you mention there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic), he’s an outside threat to take the 3 spot. If he’s finally figured it out and puts up an 0.850 OPS (again, I’m optimistic...his performance/results coincide nicely with his swing adjustments), JBJ is going to be a helluvan addition to the top of the order. I’m very bullish...he got results last year that passed the eyeball test (more LD/fewer GB in the second half, consistent hard contact); his results going oppo or CF are outstanding...I think he’s got another step to take this year, where the consistency shows up. 3HR and 13 2b in just 70 PA when hitting the ball to left. If there’s anybody (and as jimed said, he has pretty big power for a little guy) who could benefit from looking more like JDM approach-wise, Jackie’s it. He’ll pepper the monster, I think. He also hits the ball hard enough that he should get more than his share of Fenway “cheapies” on lazy flies. He’d have to take more than another step to get to where you want him... Look at his exit velo and hard-hit %ile. He was 18th in all of MLB for avg exit velo. He also has solid plate discipline, and he’s going to get even more walks if he becomes a more dangerous hitter. His xwOBA is right around 75th %ile. Post-ASB his OPS was 0.827. His main issue has been hitting down on the ball out-of-plane. It’s why he gets tied up inside and rolls over too much. He had a barrel% last year over 10, which is very good. It’s been rising throughout his career. He’s also steadily increased his LD%, and last year, especially after the swing change, his GB rate dropped. He has one step to take, and that’s staying in-plane and increasing his launch angle. He started doing that in the second half last year. If he’s in-plane he’s going to have more leeway in his timing, the whiffs should drop a little, and the issues he’s had with covering up one hole but creating another (like the FB inside issue) will decrease. The disconnect between his avgEV/hard-hit% and xwOBA isn’t because he’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk enough, it’s because his contact, while excellent, has too often been on the ground. And that’s borne out by the similarity of xwOBA and xSLG %iles. Given his quality of contact, his xSLG should be higher, but it’s relatively low due to the xSLG of hard GB (a disproportionate fraction of his contact) being so low (something like 0.150 if I recall correctly). He strikes out a fair amount, but not so much so that it should inordinately suppress his expected production. He also struggles with breaking stuff, especially sliders, but the in-plane approach, again, should reduce whiffs by increasing the coincident time of the bat and ball over the plate. JDM’s specifically referred to that as a benefit he’s noticed...the ability to make in-swing adjustments to spin. I really don’t think it’s all that much of a leap for JBJ.
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