SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2019 22:40:54 GMT -5
I don't get the Albie's deal. Through age 21 season five of his comps are HOF players, another one that is a maybe HOF, then a young stud like Correra and last at 10 is Devers. He's been that good. Like he has a good chance to earn that 35 million in arbitration, nevermind buying out all his prime years. He would have been a crazy young free agent looking at a huge deal. I get wanting security, but that was stupid! Like 7 years 50 to 60 million, with a couple options at 10 to 15 million would have been a good deal for the Braves. He needs a new agent, like they need to investigate if the Braves paid his agent under the table. Even if he was a pitcher, with all that risk, that is still a horrible deal. It's the type of deal I'd expect a much older player to sign, like a guy that was a 24 or 25 year old rookie. Not a guy that was 20 years old and had a huge age 21 season and is even better this year already. You gotta question how smart he is. When I read the details it absolutely blew my mind. If I’d been in his shoes, there’s NO way I’d’ve taken that deal unless I was pretty certain (PEDs, injury/catastrophic life/career-threatening disease) my first year was an illusion. Incredible steal for ATL. They are going to be a BEAST of a team. All this low-cost certainty means they’re gonna be able to spend in FA if they do choose, too. Just incredible.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2019 22:27:37 GMT -5
I erred when I wrote earlier in this thread. That’s what I get for not doing my research before speaking. Rodriguez’s CH is probably his best pitch. I’m not sold on the cutter, which is why I really hope he can get a true hard slider going. His FB velo is obviously quite good for a LH, and it’s got movement. The FB/CH combo is terrific when he has command, but I really think he needs a breaker for when his FB or CH command wavers. I’m sticking by my prediction, which is a tall order after his first two disastrous starts. But tonight was super encouraging (against O’s caveat). I think if he stays healthy this year the command comes (and the excruciating shades-of-Daisuke nibbling stops). He seems very confidence (situational)-dependent. As in, things unravel quickly and he has trouble stopping the snowball effect. A good run with some consistency will be, I think, the sign he’s turning the corner.
Having Pedro around is just awesome. He’s such an incredible resource. I know with him it was a lot about pure stuff and pinpoint command/control, but he’s also an exceptionally intelligent and articulate guy. Basically, a pitching genius in the true sense of the word.
Man, do I miss watching him pitch. My favorite player ever. He made the game SO fun to watch...I’ve gotta believe he makes working on this stuff with the young guys a helluva lot of fun, too.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2019 21:10:22 GMT -5
Take the win and go home. I feel bad for Chris Davis. It’s awful to watch. Same here. Once one gets past the humor of it...it’s kinda awful for someone to fall so far. Much better work today for Eddie and I love the Barnes line: 2 K but 1/3 IP. Dude’s stuff is filthy.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 11, 2019 23:24:18 GMT -5
Nice comeback win today, even if it included yet another awful SP outing. ERA as a group over 8 after 13 games? Yikes. At least it’s unsustainable, right?
Right?
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 11, 2019 23:21:21 GMT -5
Duran is racking up the INF hits! A little surprised he’s so pull-heavy, but it’s working for him rn. And Cole Brannen, who I’ve really had high hopes for, looks like an obligate swing-changer. WAY too much on the ground. Maybe JBJ could help Cole.... I honestly think he’d take what he can get at this point. Rough watching JBJ go out and...be getting the same results as last year.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 11, 2019 23:18:57 GMT -5
70% strikes from Mata today blows away he best efforts from last season: 64%, 62%, 62%, 60% He's at 18 ground outs, 3 fly outs. He and Ward have had very encouraging starts to the season. Mata especially seems night-and-day with his command. His stuff has def gotten better the past year-plus, especially the velo, but it’s nice to see him continue to generate a LOT of ground balls, as well as some whiffs. I’d think he’s got a very good chance of popping up in the 60s-80s on some mid season lists if the polish sticks. Looking more and more like an early promotion candidate. Some pleasant news from MiLB so far, with those two, Darwinzon, Duran (lol, and I sadly knew he bats LH and still said pull-heavy, which was *remarkably* dumb on my part), Shawaryn being solid, etc. I’m curious to hear some in-person reports on stuff for Mata/Ward; I recall Ward having solid velo and average secondaries, maybe looking like a relatively fast-moving 4/5, and Mata with the big velo bump last year seems like he’s got the pure stuff (esp with the high GB rate) to be a 3. He’s so young, and projectable, too...kinda curious to hear if he might even add another tick. Obviously it would be shocking for the SPs to be this bad (or even close to this bad) all year, but it’s still nice to someone in the system having success.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 11, 2019 15:01:55 GMT -5
The idea that we need to start writing the Red Sox out of the playoffs after 12 games is completely bizarre. Fangraphs gives them a 63% chance of making the playoffs, and a 15% chance of winning the division - still better than the Rays' chances. Do you disagree with those odds? Then show your work. And sure, only 5% of teams that started the season 3-9 made the playoffs. Cuz most teams that start 3-9 suck. Does anyone really think this team - which is basically the same group as it was last year - sucks? I don't think anyone has written off anything yet. Everyone has said they need to turn it like now if they want better odds of winning anything. I have myself said that "the Sox are about to test the theory of winning a division after having a horrible start." I also said that "The Sox are 1 more bad week of baseball of only maybe having wildcard only hopes." Which also means that they are one great week away from also being back in this thing before the words get twisted like normal around here. Add- The Rays are here to stay. Don't know why Fangraphs is down on their chances in the division. Their young arms are electric and they have help coming with 2 arms coming back from arm injuries. I think that’s a fair assessment. If they fell to, say, 4-14, their ROS projections basically remain the same. And that’s not even to account for poor play being indicative of injury, etc., which would *worsen* the ROS projections. So just like last year, when they banked wins and could reasonably expect to play to projections after their 17-2 start (which is essentially exactly what they did), if they bank 10 losses and play to projections...they’re probably out of the playoffs. MN isn’t a bad team. Nor are LA or the As or the Mariners (ok, they might be, but with Kikuchi and some young guys they’re unpredictable). The Sox were roughly a 93-W predicted team. That’s 0.574 ball. At 4-14, playing .574 through ROS, that’s 83 additional wins...or 87-75. That’s probably not gonna cut it this year. They really do almost *need* a rapid turnaround. One more awful week really does probably make it far more likely they finish out of the playoffs than in. Especially with TB looking as good as they have, and NY ahead out of the gate and projected to finish better, as well.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 11, 2019 14:46:26 GMT -5
Not going to do the whole team, but I’m becoming increasingly convinced Swihart finishes around .275/.345/.440 with at least 12 HR and 20 2b in roughly 400 PA. He’s been light years ahead of Vazquez so far offensively (Vazquez really looks lost...like he’s stuck in a loop in his head), and he’s arguably been better defensively as well. I think by late May, Swihart is getting the bulk of the catching duties. It’s possible it’s just a streak right now, and the sample size is pretty tiny. That said, Swihart’s been clearly more aggressive swinging (Sw% is up almost 10 points vs career), but his SwStr % is down from over 11 to under 8% (which is very good), and his contact rates are up a good amount, especially outside the zone (where he’s still swinging a bit too much, but...he’s over 80% contact rate). Again, with it being really early he might just be seeing the ball well and attacking, and he may be doing that thinking he has something to prove. He’s got 2 barrels of 13 batted balls, versus 7 in over 130 last year. His hard-hit % has doubled. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/blake-swihart-596119?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb. The early indicators are quite good offensively; behind the dish he’s also done quite well. I think he’s gaining confidence and I honestly consider that my predicted line might be an underestimate. The team may be awful as a whole so far, but Blake Swihart has looked terrific, and I think he’ll end up being a major part of the turnaround in fortune that’s coming. We may see Vazquez traded mid-season, with Swihart catching 4 of 5 days and León back up as the backup (heh heh). Saves the team $3.5M, too.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 11, 2019 14:14:49 GMT -5
Duran is racking up the INF hits! A little surprised he’s so pull-heavy, but it’s working for him rn. And Cole Brannen, who I’ve really had high hopes for, looks like an obligate swing-changer. WAY too much on the ground.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 8, 2019 0:23:51 GMT -5
On a completely different note, I’m really impressed by the bullpen work today, and in general. Barnes and Brasier look a lot like last year, stuff-wise. And Brewer has great stuff...he just could stand to cut his walk rate at least in half. And Workman, he of one of the worst FBs in baseball (looking at the combo of velo, spin, and movement), is using his good curve to tremendous effect. Looking at baseballsavant, it’s notable that the Sox ‘pen is really using a Yankees-like “pitch backwards” approach. Lots of heavy reliance on breaking stuff and cutters, with the usual 4FB being supplementary. Barnes is really the best example: 4FB up and inor just out of the zone, lots of strikes, but CB usage well over 50%, often low and out of the zone. Curious to see how this approach develops over the next month or two. Results so far have been mostly great. Take out Brian Johnson’s shelling and the ‘pen numbers are awesome.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 8, 2019 0:16:06 GMT -5
Wow...that’s a blast from the past. I remember that whole saga pretty well...they lived in my hometown. Not that long after, the first (I think it was the first) murder *in* Reading happened when a guy shot his wife, who was working in the town library, with a .22 rifle. The Tobin bridge is so North Shore, I (as the younguns say these days) can’t even.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 7, 2019 14:38:38 GMT -5
He's done for the day. 5IP, 2 hits, 0 runs, 10Ks, 4BBs. Was pulled after 73 pitches. Command was off a bit in the 5th. Solid start. A little surprised they pulled him with prob another 15-20 pitches in the tank, but I’m guessing with the two BB in the fifth they were concerned he might have had trouble finishing up before the pitch count got too high. First start of the season and all... He’s def gotta work on control and efficiency, but his stuff is so good even just average or slightly worse command and he’s robably still a successful MLB pitcher. He and Mata (who had tons of control/command issues last year) having strong first starts is really encouraging.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 7, 2019 13:04:18 GMT -5
Latest shows Darwinzon with 8 ks and 2 bb in 4 innings, with just 53 pitches, 62% strikes. It’s not Maddux efficiency, but a 106-pitch pace over 8 innings is pretty solid, and it’s remarkable for his walk and K rates. He’s looking more and more like someone who, if he doesn’t hurt himself with walks, will achieve great things. His stuff is just incredible.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 7, 2019 12:52:50 GMT -5
In my head, every Darwinzon start: Having been on a massive anime binge lately, not to mention exploring 90s glory days on Spotify, I must say, this was perfect. Reminds me a bit of the “Blue Skies” sequence in “The Wall.” Nice one, Chris.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 6, 2019 21:48:39 GMT -5
Also, cheers to Price for at least bouncing back a bit, keeping them in the game. Time for the ‘pen to keep doing their thing and for the offense to WAKE UPPPPPP!
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 6, 2019 21:44:32 GMT -5
its only a matter of time for Vasquez. he will play himself out of a spot. Tbh, I think Swihart plays himself into the #1 C spot, tho I can see Vazquez making it easy for him to do so.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 6, 2019 21:07:35 GMT -5
Looks like Houck would fit in nicely with the current state of our rotation right now. 4 innings and 7 runs seems to be the norm Lol, as soon as I saw the “15.-“ ERA under the W-L at the top of the box score, I said the same thing out loud to myself (prefaced with J.F.C., of course). When I saw his final line I thought, “who’s he think he is, Porcello?!” At least Mata had a nice start with ZERO walks.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 5, 2019 22:01:55 GMT -5
Casas' first AB is an 11-pitch war with Logan Gilbert, K'd after 8 fouls, one out near the left field foul pole.
Scherff touched 97 in the 1st and 2nd, they mentioned 96 in the 3rd.
Edit: 97 multiple times in the 4th inning.
Huge news. Getting his mechanics sorted out last year looks like it might put him on a fast track. Keith Law certainly likes him.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 5, 2019 21:57:25 GMT -5
So the Red Sox are getting a lot of crap out of the way. In 2018 the Sox never lost 4 games in a row. In 2019 it took them until the 6th game of the season to accomplish this. The 2018 Red Sox never gave up a grand slammer. They hit 10 of them, but they held opponents to something like 0-30. It took all of 9 games for the Sox to give up a grand slam. They are brutal this year. Eventually it'll turn around at some point, but it's gonna take awhile and they might not turn around as far as we'd like. So far this team is kind of like the 1976 team that was the defending AL Champs, young, bright future, and armed with a HOF worthy ace in Fergy Jenkins - and they lost 10 in a row to drop to 6-15. Took them all year just to get over .500. I’m still very confident in this team. For them to struggle to finish with 85 or so wins, a TON would have to go wrong. Possible, but still, I think, unlikely. The SPing does look atrocious right now, but it’s hard to see them being this consistently bad for a significant stretch. One bright spot for me is that Swihart’s really seeing and hitting the ball well. I think it buys him more playing time, and maybe (just maybe) he gets his career back on track. BUT, while they’re likely to regress to their projections, that regression won’t ablate the bad start, and that’s a huge problem in this division. They need to turn it around very quickly and in a big way.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 3, 2019 21:17:00 GMT -5
Btw, TB is for real. Those guys aren’t going away, and the Sox can I’ll-afford to cede too much ground early. I feel bad for Andújar, yet at the same time the Sox really wanna take advantage of NY’s injury bug, with Stanton out for a bit and Severino and Andújar down for a *while*. And Chapman is under for velocity. He got hit hard by Detroit tionight. Hicks having back problems, too. They’re in rough shape. That Sale went six (pretty deep, against a solid lineup) and pitched well despite limited velocity, on top of the Speier article, makes me feel better about his health. I recognize FTHW’s concerns re: mechanics and injury, but I liked Sale’s command yesterday and if he were hurt, I think it’d show there. I think the dead-arm hypothesis, given limited ST innings, is a reasonable one. Plus, the lack of extension means his effective velo is especially low, hence the lack of Sw/Miss. The bullpen has been largely encouraging and if Sale’s OK, health isn’t remotely the issue it is for NY (Andújar down *really* hurts their depth, sticking DJ at third and forcing Tulo to SS full-time). I expect the Sox to bounce back pretty soon.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 3, 2019 21:09:55 GMT -5
'Twas tongue-in-cheek - I'd do that trade again 100 times over. Though I do think people who were ready to write him off after last season were a bit premature. And he did jack a 438 foot homer in the time since I posted that. I think things are more striking now that Sale's health is still in question and perhaps Moncada is coming into his own. The trade has looked so lopsided over the past two years. The Red Sox get an ace who closes out the World Series in style while the White Sox get a strikeout prone defensive question and a guy needing TJ surgery (and refresh my memory - was he suspended for PEDs?). But Moncada has a ton of natural talent - reminds me kind of a raw Sammy Sosa who looked like he'd only be a .250 hitting low OBP guy with raw power but perhaps wouldn't get the most out of that power in a game. Moncada is a strong kid with good wheels. His problem is striking out a ton. I think sometimes people think it's a given that his K rate will always be way, way too high, but with maturity I think he can cut down his K rate to a reasonable rate, and he will K, but it's also because he gets into deep counts and draws his walks. As he matures he'll probably continue to walk but he might strike earlier in the count instead of being passive. Moncada probably has some 30-30 seasons in him and he might K at a reasonable rate and hit for a .280is average and when you factor in the walks you're looking at an OBP in his best seasons perhaps around .375. He probably will OPS .900 in some of his best seasons, and he's young. With Kopech, if he gets healthy, you figure if all goes right he's an ace. If not, he could be a weapon in relief. This deal will wind up more like the Boddicker for Anderson and Schilling deal, where all parties make out, team and player, or pehaps more like the Beckett and Lowell for Hanley and Sanchez deal, but the Sox can't complain. Flags fly forever and Sale was a huge part of that and the cool thing is that he's around long enough that even if there is a year or two for TJ surgery there's still time for him to recover and perhaps regain a good deal of what he's been - and that's a worse case scenario. He could be just ramping up as Levangie and Cora have stated, but I think it's really concerning that his velocity has dipped that low and gone in the wrong direction. I'll withhold judgment for a little while longer but while the theory of preserving him makes all the sense in the world, I don't feel comfortable in saying that he's fine and that there's nothing to see here. I'll hold off on the panic, but like everybody else, keep a close on the situation. We'll know one way or the other by June if not sooner. Kopech had a suspension for “PEDs,” but the substance in question is an adrenergic (think adrenaline) agonist, oxillofrine, which supposedly boosts lipid metabolism through alpha-3 receptors. It has essentially no CNS effects and its utility in enhancing performance is highly questionable, based on the papers I’ve seen. It’s sort of a silly drug to even look for, and almost certainly has no “real” benefit. It’s also widely included in supplements and often not listed, so it’s likewise extremely believable that he had no idea he took it (ie, he probably had no idea he did anything wrong and almost certainly wasn’t after an “unfair edge.”)
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 3, 2019 21:03:11 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 1h1 hour ago More Within that story, thanks to the magical tools of Baseball Savant, we know: 1) Sale's extension at pitch release on Tuesday was tied for his second lowest since the start of 2018, and 2) extension correlates pretty well for Sale to fastball swing/miss. Just read this article and it’s at least encouraging. Let’s hope the velo comes back, even gradually, and he ramps up evenly to finish strong.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2019 23:46:36 GMT -5
Btw, TB is for real. Those guys aren’t going away, and the Sox can I’ll-afford to cede too much ground early. I feel bad for Andújar, yet at the same time the Sox really wanna take advantage of NY’s injury bug, with Stanton out for a bit and Severino and Andújar down for a *while*.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2019 23:39:37 GMT -5
Veolcity concerns aside sale just gave us a gutty performance offense needs to step the F up Def true; given his stuff that was a great job. And tbh, I’m feeling a little better given what jimed said, because like chrisfromNC, I can’t imagine he’d stay in for 6 with an injury. LOL though, because other than JDM, the only part of the team playing well is the ‘pen.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2019 23:32:45 GMT -5
Seeing 4FB: 87 mph. Why is Sale still pitching? I seriously think it's mechanical, not medical. God, I hope you’re right. It’s certainly possible with the abbreviated ST (the starters are all prob in that late-ST dead-arm stage given the reduced innings) and the shoulder issue last year, which could’ve messed with his mechanics and delayed smoothing things out over the winter. 5 mph is just a LOT of velo drop, but certainly early plant, dragging arm, etc could do it. My fingers and toes are crossed.
|
|
|