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Post by telson13 on Apr 18, 2019 22:23:29 GMT -5
28 GB, 11 LD, 4 FB, 3 PU for Mata.
Pretty sure the old sabermetric adage is everyone is going to give up 20% line drives, what's interesting is what happens with the other 80%.
He’s always been a GB machine, but he actually appears to be getting even better at it. Even struggling with command last year he went up from 2:1 to 3:1 GB:FB. And he keeps on suppressing HR, with HR/FB rates under 6% every year (for a guy who surrenders a small number of FB to begin with, that means well under 0.4HR/9 every year). I’ve gotta think that if he keeps pitching well this year, he’ll maybe end up in AAA for a few starts, and almost certainly debut on some top-100s.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 18, 2019 22:13:28 GMT -5
Mata 4 scoreless so far, 0 runs. 3k Three very good starts for him, most importantly with only 4BB in 16 2/3 innings. Should get bumped up to Portland soon (Late May?) if he keeps it up. Could be a fast mover if the command/control improvements hold up. Curious to hear about his stuff after the added velo last year.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 16, 2019 18:46:21 GMT -5
No walks for Darwinzon tonight, and he’s still missing a bunch of bats. 46 pitches, 30 strikes...a solid 65%. Those 46 pitches are through 3, so his efficiency is again OK, not great. What *is* encouraging is that that level of efficiency is coming with a bunch of whiffs. If he’s going 6-7 innings with 100 pitches, that’s solid work, and even small control/command gains should improve his results substantially. I’m totally smitten with his pure “stuff,” he fools people a lot with tremendous spin and movement. He’s definitely someone who can work *in* the zone and still miss bats. And the more he does it, the more batters are going to feel compelled to swing, and end up flailing at stuff just off the edges. The most exciting pitching prospect since Espinoza burst on the scene.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 16, 2019 18:34:20 GMT -5
What’s everyone’s opinion on Sox prospect with highest ceiling in the minors? I tend to agree with RSchamps’s evals, but I’ll include a bit of my own twist. In terms of pure ceiling, I think Hernandez has inarguably the best “stuff,” and he’s relatively new to pitching, so he may have a little more projectability to his command. But his delivery is pretty high-effort, and he struggles to repeat it, resulting in the control/command issues. His FB velo borders on elite for a LHer and we know it plays up out of the bullpen. His spin rates on both FB and curve are truly outstanding and his natural FB movement is explosive. So I would say he has the highest “outlier” ceiling of a true ace (like, 2-5% outcome), but making that leap in control/command isn’t very likely at all, and he’s almost certain not to make that. A more “reasonable” ceiling is a #3 starter or elite closer. And while we don’t know how close Groome is going to approach his HS stuff after TJ, he’s shown roughly average to slightly above velo, and had a 70 CB (though it’s backed up some). So, like Champs, I’d say his reasonable ceiling is similar to Darwinzon’s, but with maybe a little better shot at reaching it. I’d put Mata and Houck pretty closely behind those two, though I think Mata’s GB tendencies and improved command this year, combined with his youth, make him a slightly better bet. I can see Mata being a solid 2 at the 2-5% outcome but probably closer to a 3/4 as a “reasonable” ceiling. Houck, roughly the same, but maybe a little more likely to end up in the ‘pen. And special mention for Durbin Feltman, whose ultimate ceiling is limited by being an obligate reliever, although he’s flashed two 60-70 grade pitches, and seems like a good bet to become a late-inning weapon. Among hitters, Dalbec could be an outstanding player, along the lines of Greg Nettles...but his whiff tendencies/hit tool deficiencies make that a very long shot. For pure “outlier” ceiling, with his defense, he might be the best of the positional lot. But his risk is really high. So I’d say one of Casas, Antoni Flores, or Jarren Duran. Casas has elite power potential and the makings of an average hit tool, and a plus arm...but is defensively limited by size/range. I’d probably put Chavis in that class as well...he’s shown 70 raw power (two HR over 460’ so far this year), and he’s got basically a present 45 hit tool, so I could see 50 or even 55...and his risk is low because he’s in AAA. But he’s got no defensive home. Flores is the one I’m most excited for, because he’s kind of got a Benintendi-like skillset (with not quite the hit tool). He does basically everything solidly, including play SS. With no real weakness, and the potential for a 55-60 hit tool and maybe average power...at a premium position he plays solidly...a substantial gain in any one area makes him a dreamable player. Duran comes from a program at Long Beach that stresses contact, GB-leg it out, small-ball baseball. He’s a pretty big guy (6’2”, 200 lbs), and he’s shown a better-than-expected approach and a bit better than expected power. I’ve seen several mentions of him by the fg guys and others as a player most people missed in their draft evals. His hit tool ceiling keeps getting adjusted up bit by bit, and right now he seems like a potential 60, though still with below-average power but some gap ability and good oppo ability (which portends less power but a high BABIP). If he can elevate more and learn to selectively pull for power, I could see a Scooter Gennett-type hitter but with near-elite speed and solid CF defense. He’s got an ideal approach for Fenway, too...again, especially if he started elevating the ball. He’s got a high floor given his speed/athleticism (solid 4th OF), and his reasonable ceiling is creeping up into 2nd or even 1st-division starting OF.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 16, 2019 17:33:10 GMT -5
Not terribly happy about any of the news today - DFAing Swihart, adding Sandy and Ramirez. Hoping I am wrong, but this could just be one of "those seasons". Same. Frankly, they just look like a “bad” team, in essentially every way right now. They’re among the five worst teams in baseball in terms of record based on run differential, and more disconcertingly, they’ve *looked* that part in play. They’ve seemed to have made some poor choices over the winter and then during ST that are leading to some poor choices now. Worst of all, they seem disjointed and fractured and just...not fun to watch. They’re not a likable team right now. And it’s not the “losing,” exactly...if they were 6-11 but had, say, a -5 run diff and had lost a bunch of close games, we’d all probably feel pretty confident in some serious positive regression. But they’re getting smoked, often, and by mediocre to bad teams. TOR, AZ, and yesterday by an absolute mess of a BAL squad. They took baseball’s most struggling player and managed to make him a minor folk hero. There has been very, very little positive to point to so far. I obviously believe in them because of the talent level, and what they did last year...but talent alone isn’t going to make up for bad play. It’s concerning, to say the least.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 18:46:40 GMT -5
Btw, it’s good to see Price pitch well, even if it’s against Baltimore. His stuff is still pretty good esp with the CH being what it is. He’s somebody who could sneak up and have a very good season. A little worried about Beni but at least he ripped that double. Tomorrow will be a pretty big day. TB is gonna run away with it unless the Sox get serious, and NY better find a way to patch things together because good lord, are they in rough shape rn and for likely a stretch with Severino, Betances, and Andújar gone for 6 wk or more. Big opportunity for the Sox to make a statement.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 18:41:32 GMT -5
The he k with NYY - Break up the Rays! Have you seen Glasnow’s and Meadows’s lines? Zoinks. Add Pham, and Snell, and you’ve got a big-time Star core brewing there. FWIW, I called this *last* spring and got laughed/shouted down. But that organization is the real deal. And they’re getting Honeywell et al back later in the year.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 18:38:00 GMT -5
Moncada had a nice game against the Yankees to help beat them; he might be breaking out, good for him He’s been good all year. I think they finally got through to him that he didn’t have to take 10 pitches for it to be a successful PA. From what I’ve seen of him so far he’s been more aggressive jumping on pitches he can drive. Both the BB and K rates are down (K rate looks good, and both usually stabilize quickly, so this may be the real deal). He’s got a .390 BABIP but he hits the ball hard and has speed, so it might regress but not necessarily a ton. Big IsoP too. Looks like the guy we thought he’d be. Tough to watch him do it for another team, but I’m psyched for him. I always root for ex-Sox unless they’re douchey or play for NY.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 18:30:25 GMT -5
The Texas state flags are a nice touch.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 18:29:47 GMT -5
Let’s start off with a little gluttony. Rangers are selling a “Fowl Pole” It’s an 18inch 2 pound chicken finger Also, bump for the Fowl Pole.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 18:22:17 GMT -5
Reports say Kimbrel is looking for a deal in the Davis and Britton range three years 39 to 52 million. I don't care what you think of Kimbrel that is a fair deal. That report came out like 12 hours after one saying he still wanted a record setting deal. So color me confused why no team has signed him yet. I remarked elsewhere how shocked I am he’s still out there. Just bizarre. He’s absolutely worth 3/45 or whatever.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:58:47 GMT -5
I didn’t think he’d be back anyway, but this pretty much seals it barring some miraculous turnaround, and it might portend his departure in-season depending on how Shawaryn-Hernandez-Mata-Houck look. The rotation is really, really awful right now. They look like a *bad* team. I can’t see it continuing with the talent they have...but...2018 Nationals... I hope the Sox don't offer Porcello the QO this off-season if he has another one of those 5 ERA years. The chances of him accepting it is almost 99 percent, especially given the market now for 30+ year olds and how much he wants to be in Boston. There's not much value with Porcello making 19+ million a year without offering money in a deal, which the Sox can't afford, unless they trade the Holy grale in Mookie Betts. Yeah, I don’t think Porcello gets a QO barring a stunning turnaround. Keuchel is a good cautionary example...Porcello probably takes the QO after seeing a better pitcher get zilch at the same age. I think ideally, Darwinzon or Mata shoves in a huge way and the Sox move Porcello at the deadline for anything they can get, to a contender hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. That said, I’m legitimately shocked that Kimbrel and Keuchel are still out there. Given the crazily-team-friendly extensions signed recently, and the less-than-ridiculous big FA deals, I think there’s a seismic shift occurring towards value that’s going to dramatically change the face of the game before the next CBA.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:47:59 GMT -5
Brewer has been 95.4 with the 4FB and 93.3 with the cutter. He has a .438 BABIP. A 29% K rate (14.29/9 IP) and an atrocious 19.4% BB rate (9.53/9). Idk how much of the high BABIP is a command issue leading to hard contact (Barnes has big problems early in his career with that, prob poorly located 4FB not high enough in the zone/out of it). Brewer’s also got an outstanding 13.3% SwStr rate. His contact rate is 64% overall, which is fantastic. And his Z-Sw is low, meaning he’s fooling guys. It’s just his O-Sw is only 32% (OK)...because he’s not over the plate enough to get enough chases. But his O-Con% and Z-Con% are only 57.7% and 73.7%...both being quite good. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s having a little trouble right now because it’s early in the season, he’s fighting for a spot, and he’s probably a little spooked from bad BABIP luck. Prob nervous about challenging hitters. But underneath the high BB rate is some really encouraging stuff. I have similar thoughts on Thornburg (who’s really more a command than control issue I think). Hell, almost the entire pitching staff has sucked, beyond Barnes and his -0.04 FIP. I say keep riding the horses they’ve got for a bit and see if they turn it around. If they’re going 2018 Nationals, Brewer and Thornburg aren’t going to be the main issue. I’d be more concerned with Sale, Eovaldi, Porcello right now.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:27:54 GMT -5
He throws hard and has a lot of movement. Hopefully his command will improve with time. One bad outing doesn't make him a bust but he has options so he's likely to go down when Holt and Johnson return. For me, he's a higher probability of being a dominant reliever than Hembree or Workman. It's not the one bad outing. It's the walks. I cannot stand watching relievers come in and not throw strikes. It shrinks their margin of error for making a mistake. And with Brewer it's hard for him to come and not walk anybody. I honestly think with more innings he'd wind up with at least 5 BB/9 IP, which is a tough ratio to survive with. I'm afraid we're going to see that with Hernandez when he comes up. I think there's a lot of thought that he can be a second half impact guy but I think we're going to see a lot of walks with him, too unfortunately. The walks drive me crazy. That's one of the reasons why I loved Koji so much. He'd pour in strike after strike. I get that, and I feel you on the free passes. But it’s a mistake to dismiss a pitcher’s value out of hand simply due to a high walk rate. It might e infuriating to watch, but in the end it’s all about baserunners. And a walk has less value than a single, depending on circumstance, but essentially never more. In the case of some of these guys, you have to separate emotion (frustration with walks/nibbling) from result. Barnes has a high walk rate last year, but outside of a very short run of awful in July or August, he was *dominant*. If a pitcher is walking 4.5/9 but only giving up 5.5 H/9, that’s livable. In fact, it’s good. I think Brewer has the underlying talent to approach a WHIP of 1.1-1.15, maybe better. He might never be elite, but I think he can be very good. Barnes certainly has become outstanding and he struggled mightily at first. Be patient 🤣🤣🤣
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:20:08 GMT -5
I guess I just don't see it with Brewer. I know he has a high spin rate but what good does it do you if they're not strikes, and in more cases than I'd like, not competitive pitches? I guess I just don't see what the fuss about Brewer was, why with all the other relievers on the market, other than the price tag, he was the must get? He throws hard and has a lot of movement. Hopefully his command will improve with time. One bad outing doesn't make him a bust but he has options so he's likely to go down when Holt and Johnson return. For me, he's a higher probability of being a dominant reliever than Hembree or Workman. Agreed. Obviously they think they can harness the raw talent/stuff by maybe tweaking his delivery or release, presuming the command will allow him to take off. Idk if they will, but I agree that given his movement and the high cutter velo (which is basically the same as his 4FB), he’s got significant upside.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 14, 2019 8:15:19 GMT -5
I really wanna see his MLB EVs. He just crushes the ball. 470’ !!! I remember his AFL numbers being awfully impressive. Now if he can maintain consistent contact and learn 2b...vintage Dan Uggla? He didn't play in the AFL because of an injury. I was talking about 2017: www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-arizona-fall-league-lessons-from-statcast/c-259766764Excerpted: “Michael Chavis, exit velocity: It doesn't take Statcast to tell you that a top-100 prospect who hit 31 home runs during the regular season is someone who can probably hit the ball really hard. But it certainly helps build the case. In Chavis' lone game at Salt River on Oct. 16, he posted two of the top five exit velocities measured in the Fall League this season. The hardest of the two was a 113.507 mph shot that went for a double to left field. (Only Logan Hill at 113.54 mph has hit a ball harder in Salt River.)” That’s the only statcast info I’ve seen reported for him, but to post two of the top-5 all season...in just one game...is pretty strong work. I’m just really curious to see a larger sample. Obviously EV isn’t everything, but man...a 470’ HR is something else.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 13, 2019 21:46:18 GMT -5
Chavis hits a mammoth 470 foot HR that completely clears everything. I really wanna see his MLB EVs. He just crushes the ball. 470’ !!! I remember his AFL numbers being awfully impressive. Now if he can maintain consistent contact and learn 2b...vintage Dan Uggla?
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Post by telson13 on Apr 13, 2019 21:37:13 GMT -5
Brewer was awful today but I still think he develops command enough to be a 7th-inning option. It’s certainly an ongoing problem (hence SD willing to part with him for Quiroz). The driving factor for SD to part with him was a 40 man crunch on their side. Quiroz didn't need to be on the 40 man. At some point, it was said that DD tried to get him last year but the price was too high. I believe it. The raw stuff is quite good. They obviously think his control/command issues are addressable, and if DD was after him last year it suggests they’re pretty high on him.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 13, 2019 21:35:17 GMT -5
Thornburg has a better fastball than last year, but it was getting smoked in the beginning of spring training. His offspeed is still really good, but I don't know if he'll have the consistency to make it in by the end of the year. His velo has been as good as its ever been. I really believe it’s the command struggles post-time off. I think as his FB command improves with reps, he’s willing to go up in the zone as Smith noted, and that allows him to use the CB down (and more often, as well as in the zone, with the vertical gradient protecting him some from mistakes in the zone). With him throwing 94 now, there’s a fair chance he gets up to 95 come warmer weather, and that too will give him a little more margin for error. His raw stuff borders on terrific...the command will come and with it, softer contact and success.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 13, 2019 21:28:56 GMT -5
That was another ugly game. Terrible starting pitching again as Porcello was awful again. He was lucky to only be charged with 3 runs. I have to say - I'm not overly impressed by Colten Brewer. It's very simple. The guy cannot throw enough strikes. You know when he comes in he's going to walk somebody. His control will not allow him to be a highly dependable reliever. The offense was kind of sluggish against a guy that everybody else tattoos. This season is going to be a trying season. They got to get their starting pitching straightened out. Hopefully Pedro's changes to E-Rod's mechanics sticks. As far as Porcello goes, ? Are we looking at another 2017? He's certainly making the decision not to bring him back pretty easy. And I guess we'll see if Cora is correct and it's the slider command that Sale needs to improve - can't argue with that assertion. Eovaldi has been bad in 3 starts. Hopefully Price has his first strong outing of the year. I'd hate to see the Sox come out of this series with less than 3 wins at home against a crappy Orioles team. Brewer was awful today but I still think he develops command enough to be a 7th-inning option. It’s certainly an ongoing problem (hence SD willing to part with him for Quiroz).
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Post by telson13 on Apr 13, 2019 21:26:43 GMT -5
Yeah I'm glad that the Sox got the very best years out of Rick Porcello, but I won't shed a tear once he departs. He's dependable, until he isn't and he can't stay effective. This year is looking like 2015 more and more with him. Not even the crappy Orioles can fix him. I didn’t think he’d be back anyway, but this pretty much seals it barring some miraculous turnaround, and it might portend his departure in-season depending on how Shawaryn-Hernandez-Mata-Houck look. The rotation is really, really awful right now. They look like a *bad* team. I can’t see it continuing with the talent they have...but...2018 Nationals...
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Post by telson13 on Apr 13, 2019 21:23:17 GMT -5
When I read the details it absolutely blew my mind. If I’d been in his shoes, there’s NO way I’d’ve taken that deal unless I was pretty certain (PEDs, injury/catastrophic life/career-threatening disease) my first year was an illusion. Incredible steal for ATL. They are going to be a BEAST of a team. All this low-cost certainty means they’re gonna be able to spend in FA if they do choose, too. Just incredible. Or they could just trade everyone in three to five years and do the whole thing over again. Honestly...With the deals they have... Lol, you might be right...trade value on a contract like that is going to be ridiculous. Albies could (it looks like he will) settle in as a 4-5 WAR player. That contract is looking like it might provide over $200M (30+ WAR over 7 years) in excess value. Can you imagine the return? In a way, it’s almost untradeable because I doubt a team would even have the prospect capital to give up to make it worth ATL’s while. You can prob bet on Donaldson being back, and them being in the hunt for Cole.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2019 22:55:51 GMT -5
Mejia is waiting in Pawtucket. Either Thonrburg or Brewer has to go to AAA if Holt and Johnson are healthy simultaneously.
Meanwhile, Thornburg and Brasier have about the same xwOBA (I'll have the updated figures tomorrow). It's way too soon to conclude that Thornburg isn't good enough, but Brewer has been much better so far.
I’m encouraged by Thornburg, actually. I’d prefer that, with Lin, they drop Nunez. Though tbh that would probably come back to bite them. Seems to me that Thornburg’s issue is almost entirely command. He’s goving up hard contact with good stuff, but he’s also still getting whiffs. I think they’d be best-served to hold onto him for a bit and see if the rust shakes off. He’s basically showing pre-TO-surgery stuff, and his control/command have improved since ST. He’d almost certainly have more trade value than Nunez. And I think Nunez would be easier to replace should the need arise (Lin, for one...but on the trade market, too). I’ve got a bad feeling that, with his CB looking excellent, if the Sox got rid of Thornburg, he’d rediscover his mojo pretty quickly. I don’t think it’s far off. Brewer has been a *find*.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2019 22:45:49 GMT -5
Just a quick word, cuz he was off tonight. Can we all just appreciate, for a moment, how good it feels to have Pedey back?
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2019 22:42:08 GMT -5
They moved up considerably on my list of most tolerable teams once Joe Maddon left for Chicago. The Cubs, consequently, moved in the opposite direction. Norm, as infuriating as I often find Maddon, you e GOT to love that mullet. It’s **glorious**
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