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Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2019 21:59:12 GMT -5
Seeing 4FB: 87 mph. Why is Sale still pitching?
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Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2019 21:57:06 GMT -5
That is apparently a very unfortunate truth right now. If he were sitting 92, even mid-91, I’d say...meh, it’s early. But 88-89 is very, very bad. That’s over 5 mph off his velo last year and 3-4 below his low seasons. His shoulder is not right, at all. My tiny wink of hope...Darwinzon up to take his spot. But this is incredibly bad, compounded exponentially by his extension.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2019 21:53:19 GMT -5
Me, reading thread title: "Oh neat, Xander Bogearts has signed an extension. He is a player I enjoy! Let us see the reactions Thread content: "The economy doesn't work if labor accidentally earns too money, and lawyers should be burned at the stake." Me: Kudos on perfect use of a classic Homer gif.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2019 21:48:52 GMT -5
Fangraphs piece says Xander left about $50 million - 29.4% - of his value on the table. blogs.fangraphs.com/sox-bogaerts-agree-on-120-million-extensionI will bet my icon for the next three years (with an opt-out after 2) that Mookie does not leave 29% or more of his estimated value (fWAR/$ Fangraphs formula) on the table in his next deal. Xander def feels he found a home* for most of the rest of his career. *Pending his use of the opt-out post new CBA. Idk...that’s a tough bet for you to win because Mookie almost certainly wouldn’t be paid in accordance with his true value. Even if he gets a Trout deal, he’s “leaving a ton of money on the table,” because his true AAV based on the past three years is basically $60M (avg 8 WAR/yr x $8M/WAR) which nobody will pay. But in the “spirit” of what you’re saying, I agree. I think he’ll try to (and possibly...probably...will) beat Trout’s deal.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2019 14:58:34 GMT -5
I’m shocked that a boras client signed an extension pre FA I’m not actually surprised, so much. The Strasburg deal was the kicker for me (and in light of Varitek’s deals with the Sox). Boras is a generally terrific agent (at least for high-end guys) because he’s very good at negotiating max value. But in the end, he’s an agent of the player...and it’s his job to meet the desires of his clients. Like Strasburg, Bogey really wanted to stay, obviously. He got a good deal given the team’s direction and impending payroll crunch, especially in light of this past off-season’s developments. This is win-win, especially since Bogaerts will still be young enough at his next FA date that he should (especially if his true “prime” years are ahead) get paid pretty well on one last deal. He really does get to stay with a team for which his value is greater than just about any other. I am pretty ecstatic about this deal. The AAV is “low” enough that, say, replacing Pearce/Nunez next year with Chavis ablates the $8M salary bump for Bogey and keeps them salary-neutral on that front. The end of Panda’s horrific contract covers the salary bump for Sale. Porcello leaving frees $20M to cover a few arb raises, and hopefully the $12-15M salary bump Mookie would get. They might actually be able to keep most of this group together for a couple more years, depending on how aggressively they’re willing to exceed cap. I’d love it if they could, say, rip up JDM’s deal (or he just opts out), and then sign him to, say, a long deal at lower AAV that basically acts like deferred money. There are ways to eek out a few $M here and there that would allow them some more wiggle room, and he, in particular, seems like a strong bet to age well into his late-30s. Better than Nelson Cruz, for example, who’s still going strong.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 28, 2019 12:16:27 GMT -5
Sandy Leon is sticking around per what I read on mlbtraderumors.com Sandy Leon Clears Waivers, Accepts Outright Assignment By Steve Adams | March 28, 2019 at 11:30am CDT March 28: Leon has accepted his assignment to Triple-A, the team announced. Just saw it in the Globe. That’s the best possible outcome. I’m not only glad he’s still in the org, but I think it’s a huge boon for the Pawtucket staff. I’d think it’s akin to having another pitching coach, in a sense. Sandy really does call a fantastic game, and I think the young guys (esp Shawaryn and Lakins) will benefit. Depending on how long he stays, too, he could end up playing a bit of a crash Davis role for The Evolution, Houck (smash), and Feltman. Could be a big help transitioning them to MLB roles. And a good source for the MLB club as far as asking/learning the tendencies of those young guys and what to watch out for, both success- and struggle-wise.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 22:41:54 GMT -5
Ah, Dang...you’re right, I forgot they average AAV for lux tax purposes. Yeah, that hurts them. Then you’re talking paying overage (though do they pay overage on the actual salary or the AAV?) of 40% I think. Really good point on your part. Unfortunately, yeah. That's the one time it "hurts" the Sox to lock into that type of deal which is normally so beneficial for a ballclub where a player gets 1st time security albeit at less total future money if they fulfill projections but the teams get reasonable cost certainty and sometimes an extra year or two, but the Sox have so much money tied up in so much talent that they don't have the luxury of that and that's where it can be a double-edged sword. And to further complicate things when you read about how badly Porcello wants to stay and that's he's openly willing to give a discount and he makes it clear that his heart is there - it sucks that they probably aren't going to work things out. Of all their pitchers, going forward, he's probably the 5th best, and they can't keep everybody, although if they lose Xander (who I think would really love to stay, but with his agent being Boras it's less likely - no discounts there), then maybe that opens up some space for a discounted Porcello? I mean my head says that Porcello probably isn't getting better over the next 5 years, but man, this guy and I believe him, really wants to be a Red Sox, which is so much nicer than a guy going somewhere just because they're the highest bidder. I do believe that Porcello truly bleeds Red Sox red, and I have a lot of respect for him because of that. Makes it pretty easy to root for him. Man, Porcello is a tough one. I really, wholeheartedly agree when it comes to a guy who wants to stay. He obviously loves being here, and he definitely has value as what amounts to being a solid 3. His stuff really is pedestrian, though, and unless he suddenly goes nuts at Driveline and adds some velo back a la Verlander...idk. The Gio Gonzalez comp is a fair one; Porcello’s been a shade better, I think, but if he goes to FA? Man, he’s still pretty young so somebody might pay him, but he could just as easily end up taking a $5M flier. And as much as I like the guy, there’s no way (especially with Houck and D on the horizon) they can afford to pay him even, say, 3/$30M. They’re really in a spot where they almost *need* Chavis to work out as a 2B or 1b, and for one of those young guys to take the 5 spot. Especially with Sale costing $15M more a year. Idk, maybe Eovaldi works out well and Houck or Hernandez steps up, and Price pitches well enough that he’s tradeable (say, puts up a market-value season at 4.5-5 WAR) without much subsidy. But they’re legit maxed-out right now. You’d hope Bogey would ink for a reasonable deal (say, 7/120?), and JBJ would take a Hicks contract, but...ugh. HUGE changes coming for this team.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 22:24:14 GMT -5
Tbh, the more I think about it, the more I like the Masterson comp. And again, their progression’s been similar and, just like Masterson in 2008 (at 23), Houck’s starting the year in AA and looks to be a potential bullpen break-in by midseason. Houck sits 2 mph faster, and misses more bats, but with a similar (2:1, basically) GB:FB ratio. And Masterson had what was essentially a 5-year stretch from 2010-2014 where he was a strong 3 to solid 2, including a 5.1 fWAR year in 2013 (kind of like Porcello’s Cy season). They’re similar in build (Masterson was heavier, but they’re both tall AF), and both had good health histories at this point in their careers. I don’t put much stock in Houck’s high BB rate last year as he was using two new pitches (4FB, CB), and it plummeted when he went back to 2FB/SL. FWIW, Masterson, during his very good run, was basically entirely (2FB)SI/SL. So there’s certainly a roadmap for Houck to be a good pitcher even without the CH. With a true CH (or another 3rd pitch), I think his ceiling might adjust up a bit. Kevin Brown is another 2FB/SL guy with no particularly good third pitch who had tons of success. So I’m definitely on the Houck bandwagon.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 22:03:01 GMT -5
I know there was mention of this tweet in the bullpen thread (for good reason), but I'm also going to post here: This has me excited for Houck in 2019. I know I've been an advocate of Houck since he was drafted. On the previous page of this thread, I tried to sell everyone on the idea that his season in Salem last year was as good as our recent college pitching prospects' (e.g., Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Workman, Beeks, etc.) High A seasons after he scrapped the mechanical and pitch repertoire changes he initially made when entering the system. I personally think there is every reason to be as excited about him as we have been about guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, etc when they showed some success. The biggest threats to his ability to start seem to be tied to his delivery and lack of a third average pitch....but, I think my own concerns are at least partially alleviated based on his track record of health (3 healthy seasons at Mizzou and last year's full season debut), and I also tend to think that when you have a fastball with as much velocity and movement as his, a third pitch becomes less important. Thats not to say I don't think he needs a third viable pitch, but I think he could make it as a starter as a guy who throws 90-95% of his pitches with his 2-seamer and slider. I can't help but think of Justin Masterson who put together a really solid career (16.4 fWAR) with a career pitch distribution of FB (77.5%), SL (21.3%), and CH (1.2%). I'm not saying Masteron's career represents Houck's likeliest projection, but I do think it represents an optimistic yet realistic projection (think best 5-10% outcome). I'd put his middle projection as something of a #2/3 reliever on a contending team, but I am bullish on his chances to remain as a starter. More bullish than my projections of Darwinzon and Mata. I have Houck ranked as #2 on my personal sox prospects rankings (behind Chavis, and basically on a tier with Darwinzon). I know thats high relative to the industry consensus but I'm curious where you all have him ranked? I think he stays a starter, because I think he gets the CH to 45-50, maybe 55. As long as it’s a bit better than “show-me,” I think you’re on with your Masterson comp (distribution-wise). If he can command it, even if it’s just average, I think that ups the effectiveness substantially. I like the arm angle (he’s still low-3/4), a lot like Sale from the R. The slider definitely flashes 60, maybe sometimes better. I think that’s going to get plenty of whiffs. I also think that, while he can probably rely on, and have success with, the 2-seam, the fact that he’s experimented extensively with the 4FB is a big bonus. It’s high-spin apparently, and I think the real issue for him was lack of command and leaving it too middle-up vs. up-and-out. I think eventually he might well improve his command to where he can effectively locate the 4FB (say, up and in but over the plate), and get even more whiffs, particularly because his SL and CH should be good up-down weapons with the 4FB. I’m especially encouraged by his velocity, too. The 2FB movement is quite good, and 92-95T96 means he’s probably averaging right around 94. That’s a 55 or 60 (mlb avg is 93), without including movement. And, it’s ST, so I’d imagine that velo ticks up to 93-96T98, averaging close to 95. Then you’re talking 65-70FB if the movement holds, and I think that even with just an average CH and average command, it’s basically a solid 3 profile. His health has been very good, and he seems like he’s built for 32 starts. He probably doesn’t have Darwinzon’s upside, so I like Hernandez a shade more, but I think you’re right on in terms of excellent setup/4 projection, with an outside shot at being a solid 2, and the floor of a reliable swingman/5. I prefer his stuff to Masterson’s at a similar stage, tho it’s tough to project him to translate it just yet. And I’ve said it before, but it eats repeating: his willingness to incorporate some pretty global changes based on his spin data tells me he’s more likely to find the “right” mix for him. That sort of desire for an edge is absolutely key to success, so I really think he’s much lower risk to stick as a starter than the industry CW seems to be. I find the “bulldog” trope pretty tired, but at the same time I think there is some “real” to it (like Chris Sale remaking himself in college), especially when it comes to guys who aren’t stubbornly resistant, but stubbornly *adaptable*. Not the guy who thinks he knows everything, but the guy who thinks he needs to learn. I really like what I’ve seen from Houck there, so far.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 20:57:07 GMT -5
Not necessarily though; a lot of these early-career extensions are structured to reflect reasonable arb figures based on projected performance. So an 8-yr extension for Beni, for example, might look like $1.5M-$4M-$7.5M-$12M-$15M-$15M-$18M-$22M. That's an 8/$95M deal, which is better than Hick’s deal (7/70), adjusted down because it’s buying out limited-income pre- and early-arb (when his earnings are limited anyway), but escalating to make up for that, with a slight discount due to years/earnings certainty. Hicks’s deal starts higher because he’s closer to FA, but tops out lower because he’ll be in decline. The going rate for OF in Beni’s production range (~3.5 WAR the past two years) has been set by Hicks/Pollock, around $12-15M AAV. So the Sox pay more at the back presuming he’s going to exceed that level (perennial 4-6 WAR vs 3-5), while not paying for decline (contract ends at 33). Maybe they enrich it to 8/100 or include a couple $25M mutual options, something like that. His “real” AAV (FA buyouts) is 4/$17.5 M, plus the slight bump guarantee in pre-and-early arb years (so closer to 4/$18-19M) which is pretty fair I think. But there’s a way to structure a deal like that where it doesn’t hurt the team at present, and as a guaranteed contract it really doesn’t matter too much to him *when* he gets paid, I’d think, so long as he’s getting paid. I think, if these guys are signed young enough, and the deals are structured this way, it’s win-win. And the cost/control certainty improves their trade value for the team, provided the back-end isn’t exhorbitant. Doing that with Beni and Devers means their salary escalation happens right when Price’s deal is up, which also gives the team some leeway in planning to rearrange the cost structure of their roster, since there’s cost certainty built in. Yes, I think deals like you mention are normally beneficial, but in the Red Sox particular situation, what are they at? Around 235 - 240 million, which includes about 700k for Benintendi and about 500k for Devers. Say the Sox locked up Benintendi for the 8 year $95 million deal you mentioned. That would be a great deal for the Sox, but the problem is that his luxury tax number would be about 12 million per year. Now suddenly instead of Benni being 700k on the books, he'd be close to $12 million, so now you have to add about 11.3 million to their 240ish million payroll, putting them above 250 million, above the highest threshold and they haven't even acquired July help for the team yet. That's why I think the Sox are probably not approaching Benni and Devers yet. They want to stay at about 240 million and try to get about 5 million of July help and try to stay under the highest limit, and to do so they need Benni and Devers really cheap. Ah, Dang...you’re right, I forgot they average AAV for lux tax purposes. Yeah, that hurts them. Then you’re talking paying overage (though do they pay overage on the actual salary or the AAV?) of 40% I think. Really good point on your part.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 20:52:13 GMT -5
. . . . Mata back in Salem makes complete sense given the command issues, but he could push because the stuff is real. And biy, is he young. Ending the season in AA at 19 would be something else. I’d imagine his threshold to move is relatively low, considering he’s repeating. . . . . Mata will 20 in May, so he would finish the year in AA (in your hypothetical promotion) at age 20. Your point still stands. He's still young and starting in Salem is the right move. Ending up in AA at age 20 would still be impressive. I'm expecting a bounce back year from him. Dang it. 18 was Greenville. My memory is like a ‘90s-vintage Dominican prospect birth certificate, apparently.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 20:49:19 GMT -5
Kind of hilarious that the picture of that chicken tender will be the first post of the non-Sox thread all year long. This is going to be SUCH a good season.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 20:48:33 GMT -5
Let’s start off with a little gluttony. Rangers are selling a “Fowl Pole” It’s an 18inch 2 pound chicken finger Is it implicit that this is reconstituted, or are we supposed to think they got it from a chicken that's 6 feet long? Everything grows big in Texas.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2019 23:41:35 GMT -5
Few quick thoughts here too: LOVE Duran starting in Salem, and I’m getting progressively more excited to think he hits the ground running (by putting it in the air) and forces a June promotion to AA. Curious to see if he goes triples-happy in that park.
Have my eye on longshot Tanner Nishioka in Salem as well; he had an excellent year in Greenville and while he’s older as a Sr sign, he seems to have a very solid hit tool, and could maybe even be a viable future 2b option.
Zach Schellinger in Salem is the ‘pen arm to watch; he seems like, with health, he could be a fast-mover.
Mata back in Salem makes complete sense given the command issues, but he could push because the stuff is real. And biy, is he young. Ending the season in AA at 19 would be something else. I’d imagine his threshold to move is relatively low, considering he’s repeating.
Seems like Greenville is stacked with early promotion candidates, as noted, especially Scherff, if his mid season revival last year holds up. Pop-up top-100 guy if the velo really is back and performance matches talent.
Portland’s rotation is going to be a LOT of fun to follow. Two guys with fantastic stuff but iffy command, and another with iffy stuff but very good command and pitchability. I think all three could be promoted come July, with Houck and Hernandez temporary MLB bullpen candidates. Here’s dreaming that Denyi Reyes is Shane Bieber v2.0
Vaguely chagrined Lin is back in AAA and Nunez still has a spot, but it’s OK. Let’s hope Chavis sticks at 2B. Dalbec seems like another late May-early June promotion candidate if the K rate is reasonably under 30%.
What’s up with Alexander Montero? Glad to see he’s in Greenville, but what’s the injury? He’s another guy I think is a good pop-up candidate getting a full season in.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2019 23:18:03 GMT -5
Right?!?!?! I think I’m most excited for Beni and Raffy. I think this is the year Beni crashes the scene as a perennial batting title contender and outside MVP candidate (outside because, you know...Trout and Mookie), and Devers I think is primed for a big leap. And that’s before Pedey’s return, JBJ’s new approach, Eovaldi ramping up his dominance, and the litany of other storylines. Lol...and looking forward to that first road loss where the bullpen coughs one up and half the board goes apoplectic. Gonna be some outrageously good posts this year, especially post-repeat when they down the Cubs in the WS. Beating the Cubs in the WS sounds like the perfect season. I would like to add Erod to the list of exciting guys to watch this year, he has the stuff to be an ace. Absolutely, I’m not sure why I left him out because he might be the one guy I’m most confident takes the big step. I definitely have some concerns for his health (I think the patellar dislocation is a non-issue, but the ankle sprain/generally creakiness is worrisome), but the big issue for him is aggressiveness in his approach (not letting 0-2 and 1-2 counts turn into 9-pitch walks or bleeders, then getting frustrated). With health, and his now-sufficient experience, as well as entering his historical pitching prime (26-29, when guys really learn to *pitch* vs throw), I think the nibbling stops and the command improves. I love him as a dark-horse Cy candidate; don’t think he’s quite yet a real bet to win, but I’ll bet he gets plenty of down-ballot votes and possibly goes top-10. I’ve said all along, from his AA debut in the system, that he has the “look” of a strong 2/1a. I’m guessing he finishes around 16-8, 3.30, with a K-BB% over 20, and 175-195 innings. And while I wouldn’t “predict” it, I honestly wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he won 20 and put up an ERA around 2.75, with peripherals to match. I think THE big key is turning his SL/CU into a true SL that he can locate and really*bend*. Supposedly that’s in the works, and if he keeps the CU and can steal some strikes with it too, he can up his CH use (which he’s often out of the zone with but has a high whiff rate), especially if the CH command improves enough that he can really work the edges. I think of Ottavino and how he drilled using his SL *in* the zone...batters still couldn’t hit it. ERod’s CH is like that, especially when he gets the FB up. A true, *weaponized* SL (even just a 55-60 instead of a 45-50) makes him SO much more dangerous.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2019 22:36:18 GMT -5
It takes two sides to sign a deal. We have absolutely zero idea of why they haven't done it. Maybe Mookie has convinced everyone else on the team that signing team friendly extensions is the worst move to make. Maybe the Red Sox just prefer to work this way. We do not know. We don't know for sure, but given where the Red Sox are with their payroll and their desire not to cross the highest threshold it makes more sense for them to pay Benintendi and Devers (and I guess you can say E-Rod even though he can get arbitration) the lower $ figures instead of trying to lock them up which requires upfront money (say $6 million/year instead of $750K or whatever it is). If they were to lock them up they probably save money over the long-term but for the short-term that would add another 10 plus million to the payroll putting the Sox where they don't want to be, so it wouldn't surprise me, given the expensive high end talent on the roster (and the Sandoval and now finally gone Hanley money) that the Red Sox were probably passive when it comes to extensions for the least experienced players. Not necessarily though; a lot of these early-career extensions are structured to reflect reasonable arb figures based on projected performance. So an 8-yr extension for Beni, for example, might look like $1.5M-$4M-$7.5M-$12M-$15M-$15M-$18M-$22M. That's an 8/$95M deal, which is better than Hick’s deal (7/70), adjusted down because it’s buying out limited-income pre- and early-arb (when his earnings are limited anyway), but escalating to make up for that, with a slight discount due to years/earnings certainty. Hicks’s deal starts higher because he’s closer to FA, but tops out lower because he’ll be in decline. The going rate for OF in Beni’s production range (~3.5 WAR the past two years) has been set by Hicks/Pollock, around $12-15M AAV. So the Sox pay more at the back presuming he’s going to exceed that level (perennial 4-6 WAR vs 3-5), while not paying for decline (contract ends at 33). Maybe they enrich it to 8/100 or include a couple $25M mutual options, something like that. His “real” AAV (FA buyouts) is 4/$17.5 M, plus the slight bump guarantee in pre-and-early arb years (so closer to 4/$18-19M) which is pretty fair I think. But there’s a way to structure a deal like that where it doesn’t hurt the team at present, and as a guaranteed contract it really doesn’t matter too much to him *when* he gets paid, I’d think, so long as he’s getting paid. I think, if these guys are signed young enough, and the deals are structured this way, it’s win-win. And the cost/control certainty improves their trade value for the team, provided the back-end isn’t exhorbitant. Doing that with Beni and Devers means their salary escalation happens right when Price’s deal is up, which also gives the team some leeway in planning to rearrange the cost structure of their roster, since there’s cost certainty built in.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2019 22:09:17 GMT -5
Not drafted but IFA signings being equal to would include, Devers and Bogey also. That is quite a list. Hopefully we will be adding Darwinzon to that list in the near future, it would mean an awful to the Sox to get lucky with him becoming an unheralded star. A #1/2/3 on a rookie deal would be like winning the lottery. If he can replace Porcello next year, essentially pitching to a low-end 3/high-end 4 (say, within a few tenths of 2 WAR), out of the **5** spot (figuring Sale-Price-Eovaldi-Rodriguez are in the 6-4-3-3 WAR range), it would mean a huge cost savings...essentially paying the difference on Sale’s deal ($15-16M), plus an extra $3-4M. With Sandoval’s deal off the books, that’s over $22-23M to cover arb raises, maybe a reworked JDM deal, and possibly even a bump in Bogey’s salary if he’s retained (guessing about $10M AAV raise). That would be *huge* for the short- and mid-term health of the MLB club. Especially if they can work in Chavis, allowing them to drop Nunez with no external replacement, and possibly cover Pearce’s $6.5M as well. Very important year for these two young guys, but especially Darwinzon. Still think he’s Sean Newcombe with better stuff when he comes up, which would be exactly that 3/4.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2019 21:52:16 GMT -5
My one complaint would be not trusting themselves enough to lock up those players earlier in their careers, since even an average player (particularly a young one with upside) has a good amount of value, traded or retained, with control years at relatively low cost. It takes two sides to sign a deal. We have absolutely zero idea of why they haven't done it. Maybe Mookie has convinced everyone else on the team that signing team friendly extensions is the worst move to make. Maybe the Red Sox just prefer to work this way. We do not know. Absolutely true; I do believe there’s an “offer they can’t refuse” line, but that may simply be too rich based on internal evaluations. Regardless, Id like to see them be a bit more aggressive there. The Sale deal (not the same as a young player, but an extension nonetheless) was a great start. It’s fair to both sides. I think there’s common ground to be found, but yes, it’s entirely possible that “I’m betting on myself” is the player mantra, which is great in the confidence sense, but ultimately probably bad for the long-term health of the team.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 25, 2019 14:40:58 GMT -5
My one complaint would be not trusting themselves enough to lock up those players earlier in their careers, since even an average player (particularly a young one with upside) has a good amount of value, traded or retained, with control years at relatively low cost.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 25, 2019 14:32:04 GMT -5
How about Wade Boggs?? If you look at what I said it was in reference to how good the past 5 years was to the previous 30, which could be more like 40. Yes their was some hits along the way but the Sox have hit on more lately especially if you include the guys on the cusp. Just look at the faces of the guys on the top of the SP page. But yes, I think I originally missed the gist of what you were saying, and we’re probably in complete agreement. Their scouting combined with team-building philosophy and excellent PD system has really, at least for positional players, seen Theo’s quote: "We’re going to turn the Red Sox into a scouting and player machine. The sky’s the limit. I’ll say it again: we’re gonna become a scouting and player development machine," become reality. And tbh, that’s one of the biggest reasons I’m so excited about Antoni Flores, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, and even Bobby Dalbec (whose whiff rate terrifies me). The tremendous development success of the past 8 years, from 2011 on, gives me a lot more faith in their young players *outperforming CW* than I would otherwise have. Dalbec, for example, is a guy Id normally “meh” about, because of the huge questions I have about his hit tool. I’m not wowed at all by big power...it’s useless if a player can’t make contact. Jason Place, where are you now? But because of the PD system the Sox have, and the quality, strength, of their player assessment and coaching (love that Dalbec’s become an excellent defensive player, for instance)...I often find myself second-guessing my own concerns. Like, “they’ll get him to figure it out.” Then suddenly Bobby Dalbec, AAAA masher, becomes BOBBY DALBEC, .250/.350/.550 3b with shades of Graig Nettles. I love it, having so much faith in their system. A 7th-rounder like Duran (who’s getting love from the fg guys and others now) who was a low-likelihood success slap-hitting 2b is now a high-floor (4th OF) CF with a potential plus hit tool and sneaky power. And as depleted as the system looked last year, now I’m seeing multiple pop-up top-100 guys in that group (Casa, Duran, Flores). And beyond even that, I like the use of the IFA system: avoiding big money signs in large part and going volume, resulting in players like Darwinzon and Mata bursting on the scene. Seems like a great way to mine for pitching, since the generally low success rate means volume is largely the key there. And IFA is the perfect place to do that. Save higher-end draft picks largely for the most likely successes, since those picks are allotted and limited. Use IFA and later rounds to mine for pitching in volume. And if you’re gonna take a pitcher (Houck, Feltman) go collegiate where success rates are much higher than HS. Just a lot to like about how they’re running the business these days.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 25, 2019 13:56:04 GMT -5
How about Wade Boggs?? If you look at what I said it was in reference to how good the past 5 years was to the previous 30, which could be more like 40. Yes their was some hits along the way but the Sox have hit on more lately especially if you include the guys on the cusp. Just look at the faces of the guys on the top of the SP page. Yeah, I skipped Boggs and Clemens since they came up before the 30-yr limit. And I skipped Clay, because he was just so maddening...but he’s still had a fine career as that maddening #1 through 5 starter. He’s a “success” because he was pretty solid, sometimes fantastic, for a long time, as an S1 pick (somewhere around 36 overall I think?). I agree that the Sox have been especially good at developing position players, particularly recently. In fact, they’ve been terrific recently, even with the game-wide improvement in PD/evaluation as a normalizing factor. Lol, I was just thinking today about Carson Fullmer, who I liked a good bit. At draft time, I was a fan of Benintendi once I’d read up on him (I’m a huge sucker for hit tool), but I was torn between him and Fullmer. VERY clearly, the Sox made the right move. I know people lament the Sox’s apparent inability to draft/sign amateur pitchers and develop them to potential, but I’m actually pretty sanguine about that (not that you are saying that here, it’s just a frequent complaint on the board). Pitcher “success” rates are just around half that of hitters in HS, I think around 60%? for college, particularly when comparing to OF/3b/SS types (2b is very low, similar to pitchers). I don’t have a link but I can look a few up if necessary. I think the team’s approach recently has been to target “high-success” positional players, and their all-homegrown OF and stupidly impressive organizational 3b depth reflect that. So I’m of the mind that their philosophy is to seek out BPA *among positions with highest likelihood of success*, and to fill tougher-to-develop positions like SP via trade/FA. I think it’s a great approach and it’s working very well for them, Sale’s acquisition and extension being the perfect example. Why draft a pitcher if there’s a similarly talented CF who, historically speaking, is *twice* as likely to be good?
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Post by telson13 on Mar 25, 2019 13:19:16 GMT -5
I think Sandy Leon was a terrific addition to this team. Offensive struggles be damned, he did a truly outstanding job with the pitching staff. At the same time, barring a reasonable return for Vazquez (which obviously the Sox did not feel they were offered), this is the best outcome. Sandy’ll catch on elsewhere, and he’s got a WS ring and membership on one of the all-time great teams to hang his hat on 50 years from now. My sense is that Vazquez showed a significant adjustment to his attitude that gives the brass confidence in his ability to take ownership of the staff. I think he’s a better player than he showed last year, and he’s still young enough that he’s got a little bit more upside, probably settling in to to 1.5-2 WAR range, possibly higher given his framing. And I’m ecstatic that they kept Swihart and that he’ll be seeing a big boost in PAs. He’s very clearly young enough that there’s substantial upside, and regular ABs are, I think, the key to unlocking that potential.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 24, 2019 21:48:31 GMT -5
Reading these posts just makes me realize how much I am looking forward to the season starting and defending the WS. Tough schedule to start with the first 11 games being on the road although I completely understand as the weather in Boston can suck this time of year. Right?!?!?! I think I’m most excited for Beni and Raffy. I think this is the year Beni crashes the scene as a perennial batting title contender and outside MVP candidate (outside because, you know...Trout and Mookie), and Devers I think is primed for a big leap. And that’s before Pedey’s return, JBJ’s new approach, Eovaldi ramping up his dominance, and the litany of other storylines. Lol...and looking forward to that first road loss where the bullpen coughs one up and half the board goes apoplectic. Gonna be some outrageously good posts this year, especially post-repeat when they down the Cubs in the WS.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 24, 2019 21:38:34 GMT -5
Strategically putting this tweet in this thread. I teresting he went back to the SL, which was a real good pitch for him in college. I also like that he was open-minded about trying the 4FB-CB combo...even if it didn’t work out he’s going to benefit long-term most likely, as he’ll have some experience with both as he continues to grow and adapt. It’s also a peculiar coincidence just how much he resembles Sale, only from the right. Repertoire, build, arm angle...let’s just hope “results” is next.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 24, 2019 21:30:15 GMT -5
Kershaw gets 31m but only over 3 years. That’s right in line with what I said. I didn’t think Sale gave up years and he didn’t give up too many dollars. 2m a year isn’t something I consider that much. Kershaw was also a free agent and Sale wasn’t. All the other contracts you mentioned are bad comps as they were signed before this new frugal attitude started with teams and they are partially the reason why teams know it’s a bad idea. I completely disagree that 30 year old Chris Sale was likely to get 6-7 years next offseason, unless his AAV was a lot lower (think Harpers last couple years), if we assume this year is just like his last 2. You can do all the analysis you want of why his 25 starts are more valuable than someone else making 33 but ultimately the fact he can only make 25 starts is what teams are going to care about when it comes to the years. Why?Because it’s a massive red flag with regards to durability. Also, the trend is the same and it makes him pedestrian as a starter in the post season so you have to assume you aren’t getting a post season Ace for your money. That’s less than ideal. All this isn’t meant as a knock on Sale. I absolutely love the guy. I love his attitude and approach as much as his ability. Those things are why I’d still give this massive contract to him despite things that scream out at you that it’s probably a bad investment. He’s worth the roll of the dice. Umm Kershaw bwar has declined for six straight years. He's battled injuries for 3 straight years. If Sale is healthy and last year was just a regular injury with no long-term effects. Sale would have got a massive 6-7 year deal without a doubt. Elite guys have been getting paid, look at the top guy this off-season what 6 years 144 million? You are making a ton of assumptions based off one injury in a year where Sale was better than ever. Who says he can only start 25 games? You can reduce his workload to save him for the postseason without going that route. We never got a chance to see what a little extra rest would do for him because he got injured. Which yea is a worry, but let's not act like he's Kershaw yet. With Kershaw you know he's not the same pitcher and he won't ever be that guy again. You can make assumptions about Sale, but they aren't rooted in facts either. This kinda seems like a no brainer risk. Every pitcher is risky, yet only 5 years at less than David Price and Kershaw? Rather easy call in my book. I would have given pause at a longer deal, but not 5 years at below market rate and 29 million a year is below market rate. Yeah, I tend to agree provided Sale stayed essentially healthy this year. Corbin got 6/140 at essentially the same age, and I think it’s a fairly safe bet that Sale could squeeze out an additional year and $6-10M more AAV considering his *average* year is equivalent to Corbin’s best (keeping in mind Corbin’s only done it once, has a TJ under his belt, and lost FB velocity last year). I think market for Sale was probably in the 6-8 yr/$30-32M range. Personally, I LOVE this deal. And that was before reading the analysis on fg (which geostorm also posted above). It basically covers his plateau years (30-33) and the early decline (34-36); Sale’s stuff, given his SL (which is a command pitch, not a velo one), should age fairly well. Yeah, injury is a risk but it always is. They keep the best pitcher in the AL through what are likely to be his most productive years, and probably still won’t overpay for his decline, provided said decline is performance- and not health-related. He’s arguably a better pitcher than Scherzer, and he doesn’t have nearly Kershaw’s injury history. Sure, it could blow up, but I like it as a calculated risk. With Eovaldi and Price under contract and Rodriguez having 3 years of control left, the rotation looks very, very good for those three years at least. If The Evolution is as real as his results have shown in camp, he could be a 3 pitching in the 5 within 2 years, bringing some cost savings after Porcello leaves.
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