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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 3, 2024 14:16:36 GMT -5
It more and more appears the team is punting the season. Im ok with this if 1- they still spend cash to fill holes and stay competitive 2- they are actually building towards something 3- they hold all the A level prospects. This whole cutting costs could just be a smoke screen, but if last years 225 budget was real, maybe this year is the same or less. Maybe Jansen and Story will be gone? The road to competitiveness is still close. No reason this season if things turn out. I still think the team needs to find 250IP and a RH power bat. I also don't think its worth trading for a Cease type. The team needs 4 years control. Not 2. Should still be in on one of the top FA pitchers( assuming the FO likes the player). Its not like the team wont need more pitching 2 or 3 or 4 years from now. Last of my rant. Why ever make the full throttle comment if the goal was to cut? It dosnt all quite add up.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 2, 2024 19:56:08 GMT -5
One has to think that a big trade is coming. Castillo's signing puts the 40 man at 40 and Giotillo is official yet.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 2, 2024 1:58:50 GMT -5
I'm with you that they need another top of the rotation guy who can give them ~170 innings. But I think Paxton is likely to get roughly $10 million/year, and I'm not convinced that he's any better than Pivetta or Crawford. Given that they have other options to start games in a pinch, I'm not sure I see the point of bringing him back. Up until July, Paxton was far and away the best pitcher before injuries got to him and he simply ran out of gas after not pitching for 2+ years. I’d happily sign him for another year in the hopes he could string a full season together. Hell, even if he breaks down again in July but still pitches like he did in the first half of 2023, that’s a lot of value. Edit: that said, it’s still very much necessary to sign/trade someone in addition to Paxton that can get you 170+ innings. Totally agree. The most important piece is still a top of rotation starter. And with lots of FA options it seems that makes they most sence. Im also not against trading OF surplus for the right deal. At thos point it seems the FA market is full of RH DH types. I like the idea of Teo, but also probably makes Sence to the the market come to us.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 1, 2024 12:52:08 GMT -5
Good job and thanx to all those that do the work to keep It going. THANX
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 30, 2023 15:22:00 GMT -5
Love it. Just need to add one more pitcher now Back to 2
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 28, 2023 2:14:29 GMT -5
If this is the outlook going into the season and John Henry really is struggling to spend any money, then why even look at marginal upgrades? Why not instead ask for a real tear down and try again next year? This was a last place team with real holes. I also don't understand what they're going for? Just being a cheap, maybe good enough to get into the Wild Card team? I think this might be the real causality of WC3. If the playoffs are all basically luck and you don't need to be particularly good to hover around WC3, why even invest stupid money from a business standpoint? Even if they don't get in, just being close enough will draw in fans. This is the most disappointing offseason I can remember in a long time. It's not over, things can change. I really had faith this ownership would stop at nothing to bring in high end talent and they're acting like they're strapped for cash. I do not care about being good c5 years from now. I want to be good now. They've been terrible 3 out of the last 4 years. I don't want it to be 4 out of 5. Just ranting, but they've made 1 FA signing for a guy who will make 1 million. They traded for Tyler O'Neil and traded away Alex Verdugo. I belive in the reports about Teoscar, which, great? I guess if it happens? I don’t understand the “this off-season has been disappointing / a disaster” takes. Yammo clearly wanted to be a Dodger. NYY offered a much better deal financially. Unless they were willing to go (way?) over $350M for someone who has never thrown an MLB inning, it was out of their hands. Ohtani I was out on from the start (because I thought he was going to get $70M AAV), however with the sweetheart deal he gave LAD @ ~$45M AAV I certainly would have topped that. Reports say Ohtani took the deal to SFG and LAD, then decided on LAD. I suspect he was set on playing on the West Coast and/or with Dodgers star power, but that’s just speculation. Regardless, I don’t think anyone here had their hopes up, even after the “full throttle” comments. Apart from those two, what free agents that would have moved the needle for the Red Sox are off the board?: Gurriel is comparable to Teoscar Hernandez. If we get Hernandez, I can’t imagine people would be upset we didn’t get Gurriel instead. Any SP off the board other than the LAD pair, there are comparable guys left. Seth Lugo thing was blown out of proportion, and it’s certainly possible (if not likely) we sign someone a step above him. Personally I don’t think he’s a huge upgrade on the Kutter / Houck / Pivetta tier. Could maybe convince me Sonny Gray would have been nice on 3/$75M, but he’s 34 with a suspect history playing in big markets, so that’s probably splitting hairs. 2B.. there’s no decent FA options anyways. Plenty of time for a trade there. Lot of off-season to go… I’m holding off on the panic button for now. If this is the team on opening day, I’ll be pissed, but we’re not there yet. I cant see any circumstance where they don’t soend at least close to The cap. Thats 50 plus M$. The hold up is the chess match of seeing how to make 3 or 4 impactful additions. I think once domino 1 falls it will help dictate a path for the other moves.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 28, 2023 2:02:22 GMT -5
He was still in his first 330 PAs as a major leaguer at the end of 2022!
I was down on Duran when it seemed like he'd never be able to play the field; but then he miraculously turned his defense around. Meanwhile, I never assumed the bat couldn't be adequate. He started out rough but the xwOBA increased 37 points from 2021 to 2022 and then it increased 37 points again from 2022 to 2023. If he regresses to an average bat with slightly subpar outfield defense and incredible speed, he's like a 2 WAR player at league minimum salary (with 5 years of control). That's what ZiPS sees (1.5 WAR in 453 PAs) and it's what Steamer would see if it didn't have an unrealistically low estimation of his baserunning value.
Duran was literally the Red Sox' best player on a rate basis last year. It's not like some sort of contorted homer logic to see him as a valuable asset.
He is still a negative player on defense. He is projected to be a 1.5 WAR player. I’m not saying he doesn’t have value. But you are undervaluing Kim significantly. Kim is one of the best defenders in the game, plays a premium defensive position. And is coming off back to back seasons where his production was 5 bWAR. And he only has a 7 million dollar salary plus a $2 million buyout. He gets a qualifying offer next year. Maybe Duran has more value to the Red Sox than Kim (I don’t see how when he turns 28 during the season and therefore does not have the upside of a 23 year old). But there is NO way the Padres agree the Duran has more to them than Kim. I think the point is why trade years of control for a 1 year rental. Its nit the direction the team should be going.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 27, 2023 23:28:25 GMT -5
The beat way for the Sox to get better is to ise our own guys and hope they progress. That said still need RH hitter Good defemsive 2B 300 innings of starting pitching.
Im not aure they can get all of this in FA and still be under the cap. Assuming that they even care anout this. None of us really know.
1 FA starter is probably a given. 1 FA RH hitter aswell.
My guess is that some of the moves are ones we havnt realy talked about.
If they do make trades it better be for controllable players. Trades like duran fornkim just don’t make sence to me for a 2 time last place team. I agree the Sox are probably closer than that but still makes no sence. Gave up 6 years to biuld the farm please don’t throw that away to thrive to win 85-92 games.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 23, 2023 22:47:41 GMT -5
Would it be the worst thing to have a six man rotation to keep the guys healthy and fresh, we had a bunch of injuries and most of our starters ran out of gas Who would be worthy of this? Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton (maybe), uhh...I guess Crawford Whitlock, Houck, Mata could all fight for two spots. Wink too. Really seems like such a mid rotation for a big market, much like the last couple years. I don’t think there is any circumstance where the FO dosnt bring in 2 starters. There are even a few ways i could see 3 starters brought in
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 23, 2023 22:11:26 GMT -5
Would it be the worst thing to have a six man rotation to keep the guys healthy and fresh, we had a bunch of injuries and most of our starters ran out of gas I like the idea of a 6 man if Imunga whom is signed. Not so much if you lay out big dollars or trade for 2 established pitchers
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 22, 2023 14:01:28 GMT -5
Snell costs a draft pick. I know it's not a huge deal measured against the size of the contract he'll get but I'm just not in the mood to spend any kind of future assets right now. This has also been brought up by Breslow
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 22, 2023 13:47:48 GMT -5
I didn’t say go over the CBT, I said stay close to it , pointless to go over with the shit effort they’ve made this offseason , I’ve been appreciative of the 4 championships they have given me the last 20 years , its time to sell to Theo and some investors Cant judge the offseason til its over.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 22, 2023 12:50:29 GMT -5
By all axounts the Sox offer was ay or north 300$M. I really think they are trying. Yhat said they have dug there self a bit of a whole. This isnt the same high spending sought after destination it once was. No choice but to turn the page. Should still have lots of cash and there are still options. Good ones. The future of the team is still going to come down to how the crop of young olayers and prospects produce and not what free agents there sign.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 22, 2023 0:41:51 GMT -5
375M$ is alot. Not sure if Sox were close or not, but have to turn the page and do something, something substantial. Still a few FA pitchers that can really help.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 21, 2023 21:17:36 GMT -5
So far the Sox have actually cleared payrole this offseason. There is a reason for this. Id like to think there are in on Yamamoto although im not so sure. If not the time is ticking and players are goingboff the board.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 20, 2023 22:10:23 GMT -5
I don’t really understand the gratuitous virtue signaling. Especially as relates to Trevor Bauer, who, while maybe an unpleasant person, was pretty clearly not guilty of the worst of what he was accused of. Then again, I’ve never identified with the emotional need to view my team’s players as heroes or mythological figures. They’re human beings who are good at pitching and hitting a ball for our amusement. If anything, I don’t mind rooting for a redemption story. I find that more interesting and human than trying to Hester Prynne everyone into the ground. But what do I know? Id take bauer. Wouldn't put him on cover of media guide ( is that such a thing anymore).
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 20, 2023 21:46:55 GMT -5
Here me out Montgomery 7/175 Imanaga 5/100 Burnes (Houck/Duran/Gonzales/Dalbec) 7/240 ext Bello Sale Espino/Brown/Wicks (Yorke/Winkowski/Walter/PaulinoRefsnyder) Jansen Martin Whitlock Crawford Pivetta Mata Bernardino Rule 5 guy Bench McGuire (or better) Turner 400-450ABs Duval 400ABs Infielder of choice Devers Casas Story Drury Abreu M. Taylor O’Neil Wong Yoshida Approx Tax Level All In: Approx 260 2025 Below Tax Certainly revamped rotation. Is be happy with 2 outta those 3 moves.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 20, 2023 21:40:07 GMT -5
Burnes and Adamas. What does it take. Obviously more than the rays got. Would you include Mayer or Anthony? Would yorke and'2 of blais/ rafaella / duran be enough? Probably have to include some pitching gonzalez , whitlock , houck.
How about yorke, Duran, Houck? And sign burnes for 8/200 ( or whatever. This is a different discussion)
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 14, 2023 21:20:38 GMT -5
At the risk of being proven a fool after the pen hits paper, color me skeptical that the Montgomery market is as ludicrous as thought. Doesn’t seem to have too many reported suitors, vibes here and elsewhere have been modest to lukewarm about signing him. Projections aren’t great. I think the Sox might have him over a barrel if he wants to be with his wife during the season. Would love to have him on discount. Yeah it might be a weird market for Monty. As noted elsewhere, Rangers possibly might be out (Rosenthal). The Yankees traded him for a dude with one working leg a year and a half ago - that doesn’t exactly suggest they would want him at top dollar. The Dodgers and Giants haven’t typically given big deals to free agent pitchers (Bauer’s was short term, high AAV; San Fran has been inclined to short term deals as well - think Rodon, Alex Cobb, Scalafani, Manaea). I guess that leaves the Mets - but it’s unclear how they view 2024? The thing in his favor is aside that from Yamamoto (in theory), he’s the most reliable option on the SP market. By like a mile. With so many guys you have to worry about 1) will he be healthy/give you innings? (I.e. Snell) and 2) will he be good? (I.e. Giolito) There is something to be said for paying extra money to largely not have to worry about those things. Montgomery’s been as consistently good - across 3 different teams, regular season and playoffs - as could be asked for of a starter the last few years. As a FA, he’s like the Uber you order at 2 in the morning after a night at the bar and it’s freezing out - sure it’s probably overpriced, but at least you get home. 😁 TOTALY agree. But I prefer black car servace. Hope the Sox do to. They used to.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 14, 2023 0:36:04 GMT -5
Is anybody else irritated by Casas projections. Most have his counting stats actually decreasing on a per AB basis. Insonr think it's reasonable to expect the june to sept numbers, but it surely isn't impossible. There is alway chance of regression but with that eye I honestly don’t see how a high 300s OBA isnt as good a lock as anybody. And 40 HRs seems as likely as 20.
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 12, 2023 23:57:30 GMT -5
If this is 39 of 40 one has to think that a trade is inanimate
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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 5, 2023 19:54:22 GMT -5
I read something recently, I think it was in the Athletic article interviewing agents, that the Winter Meetings are viewed as pointless by many in the industry… the sentiment was something like “everything can be done over text and Zoom nowadays, the Winter Meetings are just for fans to have something to get excited about.” There probably is a lot of that in the current day winter meetings. With technology now it's not like teams and players can't be in constant contact with each other. It does seem like its largely just fan service at this point. These guys love getting outta the house and having some cold ones with old friends. It dosnt matter how else you do it, there is nothing like a hand shake, and looking a guy in the eye.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 30, 2023 18:19:58 GMT -5
I mean “something big” bs we keep hearing. Nothing would be bigger (or riskier) than an ohtani / Yamamoto combo move They would get their attendance and viewers up real quick How much excess $$$ is this for the FO. ALOT. Enough for It to be feasable. Maybe.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 29, 2023 21:47:37 GMT -5
They did get Jackie Bradley (and Blake Swihart) with the draft compensation for letting Beltre walk, so that's something. Honestly, whoda thunk he'd put up 32 WAR from ages 32 to 37? Cant predict aging. In those same years bradley a negative playing. Roling the dice
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 29, 2023 21:45:29 GMT -5
Not a very well thought out answer, but Duran was the most exciting player on the team last year outside of Casas. Thought of trading o him just upsets me. The only way im in favor of a Duran trade is if its part of bringing an ace with more than 1 year or a legit superstar with more than 1 year.
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