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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2022 20:40:09 GMT -5
Unpopular opinion: I’m not sure Casas will ever be able to combine a high-OBP approach with a high-power approach and this offseason may be the best time to sell high on him. Reynolds is the rare player that might be worth trading Casas for. Discuss. The problem as I see it is they have NO good cheap young talent on the position player side. Verdugo is into his arb years and only has two years of control left. Devers is backig his truck up to Fort Knox, if he's even sticking around. Dalbec and Duran do not look like everyday players. Arroyo and McGuire help round out the roster but they're hardly core pieces. Can we count on the likes of Rafaela, Valdez, and Abreu to turn into everyday players? Let alone that Rafaela might have to go along with Casas in order to land Reynolds. Reynolds himself will be a $10 million player in 2024 and a $15 million guy by 2025. I just don't know if it's feasible to build a solid lineup when you don't have any young cheap everyday players. And Casas is the only guy right now who looks set to be that for them.
I take the point that cost controlled productive position players are an important asset, but I’m not sure there’s a disproportionate difference between having one guy who might fit that profile and no guys who might fit that profile. (I’m also pretty high on Rafaela.)
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2022 18:49:04 GMT -5
Was reported that Bogaerts would search for top offer and present the Sox with a chance to match. Reading Abraham’s report, could their non-interest be them simply waiting to see what that # is? On the one hand, that is indeed how most of the negotiation guides suggest you handle a right of refusal (wait for a third party to set the market to avoid bidding against yourself). On the other hand, if they just weren’t interested in him, they’d play it the same way. I’ll wait until Bogaerts actually signs somewhere before making up my mind.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2022 18:44:59 GMT -5
Unpopular opinion: I’m not sure Casas will ever be able to combine a high-OBP approach with a high-power approach and this offseason may be the best time to sell high on him. Reynolds is the rare player that might be worth trading Casas for. Discuss.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2022 14:59:00 GMT -5
Guys, this is the 2023 position players thread. Please move on from the Bloom stuff or move it to that thread.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2022 22:51:57 GMT -5
Knock off the politics. You’ve been warned about this before.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2022 18:37:15 GMT -5
This seems like a solid start to the Winter Meetings!! Dosnt seem like a move you make when not trying to win Eh, Martin is also the kind of guy you can flip for a prospect at the deadline easily if you’re not in contention.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2022 17:17:26 GMT -5
I’m getting too old to spend a bunch of time looking up everything on the internet about him before forming an opinion, so in lieu of that, I’ll just be an optimistic fan and say that this signing gives me some Koji Uehara vibes.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 23:04:11 GMT -5
The offensive tackles getting shredded like this is embarrassing. Without Miller, the Buffalo edge guys are middling at best and making Brown and McDermott look like statues.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 22:19:52 GMT -5
Jonathon Jones is a solid second or third corner, but he’s just getting shredded by Diggs and others.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 22:14:09 GMT -5
The trade deadline passed a month+ ago. Yeah… I know. I am talking about this offseason and the following seasons. These restructurings hurt our flexibility in future seasons… for what? If people in that building believe this team is a contender than that really scares me. This team needs assets not bad contracts. They shifted $2.2M of cap space from this year to 2023 and 2024, which is a rounding error. Most of the extra cap space was used to extend Tavai anyways, and any unused cap space rolls over to next season.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 22:09:06 GMT -5
This is maybe the worst offensive line I’ve ever seen.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:54:50 GMT -5
This whole thing needs to be blown up. Why are they restructuring contracts to create cap space when if anything there should be a sell off? The trade deadline passed a month+ ago.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:53:48 GMT -5
You're paying a DH a AAV of 31 million years 7-10. It just seems odd to have the same measure for hitter-only to guys as the one for guys who play on both sides of the ball. If DH is a position, shouldn't that WAR be entirely based on offense? If a man's position is exclusively DH it does not require him to play the field, then measure him - and ding him - on fielding? It's like dinging pitchers post-2022 for batting (or not, as the case may be). I understand that WAR can be leaky, and I get the argument that "they're taking up a roster spot." But if the position is DH and the team decides to fill that role with a full-time DH who they believe provides offense so superior, they can get someome else much cheaper to play the field in his stead. It’s just that replacement level is higher at DH, in much the same way that the equivalent offensive player is much more valuable at SS than at 1B.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:35:20 GMT -5
Suppose the following were the case though: - the most expensive free agents are systematically overpriced in $/WAR terms - a team will always be able to more rationally and efficiently spend money on mid-tier free agents - nonetheless, it's in the team's interest to add at least one all-star caliber free agent If those things are all true (and in fact I think they are, and apply to the Red Sox right now), then the individual decision to add a player that "isn't worth the money per their internal calculus" could be the right one. And by that logic I keep coming back to the conclusion that they need to sign Bogaerts or Correa even at something of an overpay.
But it's interesting that Bloom keeps mentioning the possibility of making a trade, and they apparently have interest in guys like Murphy and Reynolds. Because if you really are allergic to overspending on the free agent market, the other way to add an all-star caliber player is by spending your other assets - namely, prospects.
I would argue that a GM should be factoring in all of what you mentioned. I definitely don't intend to imply a GM should only be thinking in terms of $/WAR! I'd think expected team wins would be a good baseline metric, but that's still flawed (e.g. a marginal win in year X might not be as valuable as a marginal win in year Y). I agree with you that signing Bogaerts or Correa is likely to be a good move with that in mind, even if they're pricier than we hope. Still, there does have to be a *some* limit, and I would expect any GM worth their salt to have a good and up to date sense for how high is too high before it stops being a good investment for the team. That point could be, and I'm sure often is, well above any crowdsources or what we think a player should get paid. Once you have to bid over and beyond that, though, it seems like shooting yourself in the foot to force it. My basic point is just that "GMs should not consciously make decisions that they expect to hurt the team overall" - was not expecting it to be controversial lol That point reduces down to “a GM shouldn’t do a deal that they think is bad,” which is basically a tautology. The question of “should a GM do a deal that is worse than market value” is more interesting. As incandenza notes above, I can buy that, sometimes, the answer is “yes,” but it should be a rare occurrence.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:25:58 GMT -5
If I'm Kraft I'm telling Bill he's no longer the GM. The roster is not that bad. They’ve had a couple good drafts in a row and their major free agent signings have been, on average, fine. Coaching and execution has been the issue.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:11:27 GMT -5
This is not a good team. Let’s forget about the playoffs and just try and get Mac some rhythm in this new offense.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:03:48 GMT -5
They’re not going to have cap space for the foreseeable future, so this just costs the owners money. As long as they are committed to spending well into the luxury tax for a title contender, no real downside.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:02:33 GMT -5
This secondary continues to be exposed by any QB with a pulse.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2022 21:00:24 GMT -5
Left side of the line is having a terrible game.
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Post by jmei on Nov 30, 2022 21:58:53 GMT -5
Two things about Tatum that have significantly improved: his ability to relentlessly pressure the rim and draw fouls rather than settling for jumpers and his passing on the move. The hardest step is for a ho him all-star to make the leap to best player on a championship contender. We’re seeing that this year.
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Post by jmei on Nov 30, 2022 21:06:40 GMT -5
Let’s please get back on topic.
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Post by jmei on Nov 30, 2022 20:51:22 GMT -5
They keep getting killed by the Herro/Adobayo pick and roll. How many times can you screw it up without doing something different?
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Post by jmei on Nov 30, 2022 20:10:50 GMT -5
Why aren’t they switching everything? Without Butler, I’m not afraid of any mismatch on this Heat team. They’re just walking into open shots and driving lanes off dribble handoffs over and over again.
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Post by jmei on Nov 30, 2022 20:03:54 GMT -5
They do fall into some lackadaisical habits on defense too often.
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Post by jmei on Nov 30, 2022 7:38:09 GMT -5
Idle thought: how good would this team be if they had kept Bol Bol.
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