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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 13:24:36 GMT -5
Ken Kendrick is really rich. Whether he'll cut into his profits, I dunno. Whether Martinez would be the player worth doing that for, I also dunno. But the idea that his team can't afford an extra $20M is not one I think holds up. Every owner is rich and could spend more. But they haven't ever done so. So could they break the norm, of course. But if you're looking at what options for JDM remain, one team has shown over and over again the willingness to spend, while one really hasn't, and would be going vastly over what they've ever spent before. Sure, maybe they think JDM is the player to do that for, but I can't just assume they'd be willing to go 15-20% over what they've ever spent on payroll, when they're already going to have to sign Goldschmidt, while Greinke's massive contract is on the books through 2021. Are they out, no. But every dollar they spend makes it less likely they sign JDM. Same with the Sox, if they go out and spend $10M on a player (whatever position it may be), it makes it less likely that they will sign JDM, but not as much as Arizona, as they've shown the willingness to spend more, and are already over the luxury tax
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 12:39:43 GMT -5
I would assume Avila will start, right? Or at least move into Iannetta's 2017 role as the primary catcher in a platoon with Mathis. Basically he fits into their catching budget around where I'd have expected them to be - meaning I don't think there's an effect on Martinez realistically. The thing is, they're payroll/AAV value on the roster is already approaching a record high/already beyond the most they've ever spent. So sure, JDM could go to Arizona, but they continue to spend $ on a fairly tight budget, and anything to JDM would blow WAY past any payroll spend that they've ever had. They had internal options that they could have gone with at catcher, Ianneta, & Herrmann, who likely wouldn't have been as productive as Avila, but if they were looking to save funds for Martinez, that was an easy spot. Now they've spent it, and unless they just want to break the bank basically through the 2021 season (when Greinke is in his last year), they're not signing JDM. The Yasmany Thomas deal kills them
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 30, 2018 17:33:43 GMT -5
I think they stand fairly pat if they don't sign JDM (I still think there's an extremely high chance they sign him).
They roll with Hanley/Moreland at 1B/DH and see how it goes. You've got Swihart/Brentz/Travis who can hopefully hit and potentially play 1B/DH/OF if needed. They've got pieces if they want to make a mid-season move if need be, though it would be nice to stop depleting the farm, which is why I still think they end up overspending (and I'm fine with that) on JDM.
I think the rotation is fine, and the depth is not spectacular but not disastrous. I think Johnson, Beeks, Elias, and Rodriguez/Wright is sufficient to begin the year. I wouldn't be stunned if they picked up another veteran SP who was willing to play for Pawtucket though.
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Boras
Jan 25, 2018 16:44:25 GMT -5
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 25, 2018 16:44:25 GMT -5
Boras' argument that equates the Black Sox intentionally throwing games with team's not providing enough talent but everyone on the field still trying is absurd to me.
Sure, if he wants to argue that all teams should be spending X because they're all getting Y in revenue but are instead barely spending so that they get better draft picks and $ pools, fine, institute a salary floor, though I'm not convinced that this would have much affect on high end players, and more likely just extend a player's career a bit and increase the contract values of the minimum salary players.
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Boras
Jan 24, 2018 15:22:22 GMT -5
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 24, 2018 15:22:22 GMT -5
There's a MAJOR issue with Minor League pay. The problem is that one, they're not represented by anyone, and two, there hasn't been any sort of realistic proposal that would be financially viable across the board
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 23, 2018 12:55:37 GMT -5
I went with 5/125, but I wouldn't be opposed to upping the overall $ to like 140 or maybe 5/150 if needed. I'd rather overpay AAV than go to a 6th year
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 20, 2018 1:29:39 GMT -5
With Grichuk (That is most likely spelled wrong) traded to Toronto, does that mean they probably aren't interested in Martinez? Or does it not matter cause they would DH him too? It makes what was already an unlikely destination for JDM more unlikely
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 16, 2018 15:52:55 GMT -5
Barring something absurd, there's no way JDM is getting 7 years at this point. I seriously think it's a stretch that he's going to get 6 right now, as his market has shrunk with nearly every deal that's gone down. The Giants have traded for two bats, the Blue Jays just signed Granderson (though low enough to where it might not necessarily exclude them), and then who aside from Arizona, who make little sense at more than 3-4 years without the ability to be the DH & are restricted financially
Has anything broken Martinez's way to justify anything close to what Boras is looking for? Maybe the Santana deal, but that's about it.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 15, 2018 21:15:35 GMT -5
The Yankees appear to at least at some point have had better offers on the table for both Cole and McCutchen, and yet the Pirates went elsewhere on both. So strange, unless the Pirates just don't like Clint Frazier or Chance Adams whatsoever. This Pirates sell off is just so weird I'm on the same page you are. If we believe the rumored packages, they either don't care for Frazier or don't see him as a fit. With the Astros package, it's not hard to see them liking Musgrove and thinking Moran's power surge is real and just preferring that package. But Frazier/plus seems like it should be more attractive than Crick/Reynolds. McCutchen getting out of center will be a plus for both him and the Giants. And I'm thinking the only way the Yankees pull Frazier completely off the table is if they think a trade for Machado is relatively imminent, which for all we know could be the case. Really hoping that "when" the Yankees trade for Machado, they're forced to give up Torres and Frazier
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 15, 2018 20:39:40 GMT -5
To open the offseason, it looked like JDM was destined to sign with Boston. As more and more things happen, it seems almost inexplicable that he doesn't sign with Boston now, unless he just decides to take what is likely significantly less money to return to Arizona
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 15, 2018 20:36:17 GMT -5
The Yankees appear to at least at some point have had better offers on the table for both Cole and McCutchen, and yet the Pirates went elsewhere on both. So strange, unless the Pirates just don't like Clint Frazier or Chance Adams whatsoever. This Pirates sell off is just so weird
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 13, 2018 21:15:52 GMT -5
Porcello's advanced pitching metrics have also been fairly consistently good to great for years, and his bad years are pretty much due to massive rises in HR/9 rate. Now if you think that his HR/9 rate is going to stay up, then there's more cause for concern. I'd fathom a guess that it settles somewhere between last year and his CY year, which should provide a marked improvement from 2017
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 13, 2018 19:04:17 GMT -5
They have to like Musgrove as a starter, I'd imagine. It seemed like Whitley was pretty prominent in the rumors that flew around last week, so it seems the Astros did well to get Cole without including him. I saw Whitley pitch last year. About as good as one could possibly look at that age at the A+ level. Filthy stuff
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 13, 2018 18:50:24 GMT -5
Certainly feel like it has been reported that the Pirates at least at some point had a better offer on the table from NY. The Pirates must really like Musgrove and Moran
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 12, 2018 22:02:45 GMT -5
I definitely wouldn't argue that Betts isn't "worth" $10.5M for the upcoming season, but I do think that Bryant has accomplished more and been a better player, and just received the highest ever year one arbitration at $10.85. I think if Betts had been at roughly $9M vs. Boston at $7.5M, the arbitrator might side with Betts, but at $10.5, I'm now leaning towards them siding with Boston.
The arbitration system is FAR from ideal, you can argue that it's terrible. But it's a precedent based system, so there's no way you can fault the Sox for putting in at 7.5. I'll argue that they probably should/could have settled in the $8.5M range, but chose not to. If the arbitrator sides with Betts, his Arb2 and Arb3 numbers are going to be ridiculously high. If the arbitrator sides with Boston, he'll be far cheaper for the next two years.
I'd try to buy out at least the final two years of his arbitration with a long term deal, but I just don't get the sense that that's the way that Betts wants to go. Will he leave in FA, I have no idea. But I certainly don't believe that the Sox and Betts disagreeing the past two years on his contract is going to have much, if anything to do with it
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 12, 2018 18:23:23 GMT -5
Betts asked for $10.5, Sox put in at $7.5
So Betts asked for the record, prior to Bryant settling at $10.85. After a quick look through Fangraphs, Betts' overall numbers are extremely similar to Bryant. Last three years, same number of games, Bryant slightly better on offense, Betts slightly better on defense (I'd argue he's probably more than slightly better), and Betts significantly better as a baserunner.
If I had to guess right now, I think he ends up getting the $10.5, assuming they can use Bryant's current precedent
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 12, 2018 16:44:02 GMT -5
Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM ($3.825M) Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM ($8.5M) Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM (signed - $2.05M) Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM ($6.1M) Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM (signed - $1.1M) Brandon Workman (3.115) – $900K ($835k) Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM (signed - $850k) Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM ($2.25M) Est: $25.9M; Actual: $25.51M
Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM Bogaerts - $7.05 Leon - $1.95 Vazquez - $1.45 Rodriguez - $2.375 Another $1.075 under the initial projection. So total of $1.465M under the initial estimations. Edit: Pending Betts, who I'd imagine is wisely asking for the moon, while the Sox probably aren't looking to go setting arbitration records for him in year 1
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 8, 2018 20:15:21 GMT -5
Fangraphs has Kemp as the 82nd best hitter in baseball by wrc+ in 2016 and 62nd in OPS. And I see nothing to show why he would have any better of a chance at being a positive offensive weapon than Hanley, let alone when you'd have to guarantee him more money.
Anyways, Kemp isn't happening, unless they magically find someone who is willing to absorb the entirety of Hanley's contract, and even then, I still don't think Kemp is the way to go.
I don't think they need a guy to hit HRs. They need a good/elite hitter, whether that hitter hits HRs or not
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 8, 2018 19:41:16 GMT -5
Unless things go totally crazy for the Sox, there's no way they let him get the PA needed for his option to vest, so he'll be done after this season. Not only would Kemp be guaranteed an extra year, he hasn't been very good offensively since 2014. Kemp has been 109/109/100 WRC+ the last three years. Hanley mashed in 2016 and was clearly bothered by injury for much of 2017. There's nowhere close to a guarantee that he'll hit well this season, but if he doesn't, then you can easily just move on
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 3, 2018 10:54:28 GMT -5
Moreland is a good deal. It becomes less of a worthwhile deal if they don't sign JDM or have some other elite bat
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 3, 2018 9:41:38 GMT -5
Pretty glad the Sox don't appear to be involved in the Hosmer sweepstakes given his two reported offers. 7 years from both SD and KC, 140M/147M respectively
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 3, 2018 9:40:20 GMT -5
The Royals have offered Hosmer 7/147, the Padres 7/140
Good lord
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 31, 2017 18:50:21 GMT -5
This whole Machado to Boston feels like leverage by the Sox to get Boras to buckle on JDM, and leverage for the Orioles to get value from some other team. This deal makes no sense
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 31, 2017 17:39:24 GMT -5
Easy to forget how young Bogaerts is. Yes it is!! He hit with one hand this year! Yea, he's young, no doubt on that. But because he was called up so young, he's a FA in just two years for the 2020 season. Certainly plenty of time for the Sox to see what they really have with him, but time is running out for any sort of non FA contract/team friendly deal, if that was ever actually a possibility with Boras, which was always questionable at best to be fair
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 31, 2017 10:07:03 GMT -5
I'm still in the camp that Xander can become an elite level hitter. It might be in a different way than we initially thought, less HR's, but better average, plate control, etc.
That being said, I have absolutely no idea what type of contract extension he'd be looking for at this point, or even after a good 2018.
Also, I think all of this Machado talk/rumors is complete crap. It's being used by Boston to pressure Boras to have JDM sign by "potentially" getting its offensive boost elsewhere, and it's being used by Baltimore to prop up its trade position, which they've already bungled, and I have zero doubts they'll completely screw it up.
There's too much of why Machado shouldn't/won't come to Boston for me to even consider it a remote possibility.
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