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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 22, 2019 20:05:15 GMT -5
With Christin Stewart on the IL, Tigers have 10 RHB and two switch-hitters, one of whom, Jeimer Candelario, struggles from the left side. Lakins has been dominating RHB this year, and can go two IP. If, OTOH, a player who has just cleared waivers doesn't need to spend another 48 hours in limbo, re-selecting and re-outrighting Ramirez might make more sense, for the reason you give. OTTH, everyone in the pen has gotten a day off, and Velazquez went from 39 to 57 pitches on his last start, and Sale can be counted on for at least 6 IP. If they go the Lakins route and they still over-use the pen, they could option Poyner and select Ramirez for Wednesday.
Lakins did just go 2 innings yesterday in Pawtucket, so I don't think he'd be available for more than a inning on Monday. It'll be interesting to see who they pick. Add- They could also select Mejia from Pawtucket too if they don't want Lakins up yet or don't like the idea of Erasmo Ramirez. Speier says it's likely to be Darwinzon as the 26th man, FWIW
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 19, 2019 17:59:06 GMT -5
Actually feels like a better prospect than expected, in particular because of the DFA. Feels like there's probably not a ton of upside, though his floor could be higher than many if his hit tool advances at all
Also, yes, the Red Sox bungled the entire Swihart situation, basically blowing multiple option years, and never giving him a chance. They may have had an actual chance to use him as close to a centerpiece in the Hamels deal, but aside from that specific moment, I'm not sure he ever had a ton of value. Again, that's partly because of how the Sox played it, but also because he hadn't really posted anything worthwhile on offense since 2015
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 16, 2019 11:37:03 GMT -5
There are only two real explanations for this move.
Either Swihart did something worthy of them just dumping him or the pitching staff basically said we'd be far better with Sandy catching.
Outside of that, it makes zero sense to do that now vs. a month ago. Not that he had a ton of trade value then, but maybe you get a flier from someone.
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 12, 2019 0:28:32 GMT -5
70% strikes from Mata today blows away he best efforts from last season: 64%, 62%, 62%, 60% He's at 18 ground outs, 3 fly outs. If he's able to consistently find the zone, mainly with the FB, he could have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the system. His stuff is just so good that he makes hitters look absolutely silly
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 11, 2019 19:32:08 GMT -5
If the deal didn't include the team options, or at the very least were player options, it wouldn't be that bad. Still pre-arbitration, contract would just go through his ARB years.
But those options for the Braves at $7M each? Good lord. Albies must have REALLY wanted to sign a longterm deal right now and had no interest in trying to push the Braves for extra money. Either that or his agent somehow convinced him that he was only worth this deal, because in a sane world, he certainly gets more than $7M/year in free agency unless he becomes a useless player or has some massive injury
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 11, 2019 14:37:48 GMT -5
I just don't see how MLB/MILB eliminating teams/sites from posting highlights benefits MLB/MILB in any way.
Your hardcore fans are the only ones who are going to likely be sitting and watching a full game. The younger generations almost certainly aren't, and highlights is a way to keep them involved.
It's just mind blowing and provides no benefit to the game, which is searching for newer fans. Just lunacy
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 1, 2019 10:16:23 GMT -5
Former Sox SS Javy Guerra (Kimbrel trade) is converting from a SS to P. Supposedly was 96-100 in his first bullpen session
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 31, 2019 20:33:04 GMT -5
That's a really good deal for the Sox based on what this offseason could have looked like. He could have been a potential $200M player.
Them dishing out for Sale and Bogaerts already, paired with what Betts has said, has me worried about them extending him, so that's tempering my excitement
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 27, 2019 12:34:27 GMT -5
That's interesting, does deferred money still count toward the tax bill for the year it's earned or is the "cap" hit also deferred? Trying to wrap my head around why, beyond the obvious benefits of deferred money. Still counts towards the contract years in terms of luxury tax unless I missed something. It's mostly a way of actual cash savings with the normal benefits of deferred money as you mentioned
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 22, 2019 22:09:35 GMT -5
Certainly appears as though, barring something crazy, the Sox are doing everything possible to avoid passing that top luxury tax tier
Staying away from FA relievers, potentially dealing Sandy as opposed to Swihart, making Sale's deal an extension that kicks in in 2020, etc.
I don't necessarily blame them from a business standpoint. It's not like they're not spending money, but kicking yourself down in the draft multiple years in a row, and obviously saving some $
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 22, 2019 18:22:10 GMT -5
The top of the staff is all set. I wonder if this means Porcello last year with team. I also wonder if they approach anyone else so far i.e. Xander or asked J.D. about the opt out or address it. Wow this team has a lot of work to do regarding contracts. I wonder if Xander they want him to find out his market or value in offseason because he is kind of hard to narrow down. Unless Porcello is willing to take vastly less than he'll almost certainly get somewhere else, he's not going to be back in the rotation. They've got so much $ committed to Sale/Price/Eovaldi, that ideally they'll fill the 4 spot with E-rod, and the 5 spot with either guys on rookie deals (Hernandez/Houck/Sharawyn) or maybe a mid-level FA. Assuming they don't just get rid of Wright with all of his issues, he's a cheap option as well.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 22, 2019 12:32:30 GMT -5
Roughly same AAV as Price, Scherzer, & Kershaw. Figure he probably gets $35/year, maybe more/another year, if he didn't have any shoulder issues/consistent fading in the second half
Don't think it's a stellar deal for the Sox, but I also don't have any real problem with it. They've now got a lot of $ locked in the rotation, but you could do far worse than Sale, Price, and Eovaldi
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 22, 2019 11:25:18 GMT -5
Sale and the Sox close to an extension!
*Per Speier on Twitter moments ago
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 21, 2019 17:08:27 GMT -5
Yea, if the Sox don't announce any extensions by the end of April, I'll be annoyed, based on what every other team has done.
But the Sox have a very big reason to not increase anyone's AAV before the 2019 campaign gets underway
Edit: Apparently according to Alex Speier, it no longer matters when the deal is signed, so long as the extension doesn't kick in until the following season. So they technically could sign Sale to a long term deal that kicks in for 2020, and it wouldn't impact any 2019 luxury tax limit stuff.
Definitely throws a wrench into things, as most people, even writers, were working off of at least the premise that anything announced before the season started would affect current year AAV
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 21, 2019 16:09:49 GMT -5
There's no way in hell that the Red Sox don't end up with Mookie if they want to sign him. Sorry, it's just how I feel. They aren't dumb and they have lots of money. Do they want him at 12/$450M? I have no clue. It feels, at least this week, like unless he's getting that, he's at the very least testing FA Edit: Also, I don't disagree, I'm just not sure if another team will throw stupid money at him
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 21, 2019 12:29:20 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it. Right, but his comments yesterday pretty said blankly "I'm going to become a FA." I'm not saying that if he gets to FA the Sox are screwed, but there's a far more likely chance he's wearing a different uniform if he makes it to FA, and I'm not sure even a Trout offer would get him to back off his FA comments at this point
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 20, 2019 14:08:44 GMT -5
Eloy Jimenez just signed for 6/$43M and two club options
Hasn't made his MLB debut yet, so they're buying out a lot of minimum salary years in exchange for some options at a reasonable cost if he turns into even a great player, let alone a superstar
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 20, 2019 11:46:19 GMT -5
I don't anticipate Sale or Martinez walk unless they demand downright outrageous offers.
If Boras convinces Xander he can get $200M+ on the open market, he's certainly not signing a pre-FA extension, and probably leaving. Of all of the guys who are up in the next few years, I feel like he's the most likely to actually get something crazy on the open market, probably more than he should.
I don't believe it's going to take anything crazy to extend Sale and JDM. Sale's might be somewhat of a discussion because of his tendency to wear down after the ASG and into October, but I think they'll pay him top end money regardless.
I would hope that Mookie doesn't put them in a position where they have to actively look to trade him either next offseason or before the 2020 trade deadline. But if he hasn't shown willingness to extend at a reasonable #, which should probably be just lower than Trout's, you have to at least look
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 20, 2019 9:53:29 GMT -5
I don't blame Mookie for his comments this morning, basically saying that he doesn't anticipate any sort of extension before he hits FA, but as a fan, it sucks.
I hope I'm wrong, and I can't possibly imagine they just let him walk with the only compensation being a mediocre round draft pick, but I also can't fathom them trading him, or some team putting together a realistic package for him, unless the Sox are just terrible for some reason in 2019 or 2020.
The whole situation just feels like it's either going to end great (with an extension), or disastrously (with him leaving in FA), with no middle ground
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 21:24:29 GMT -5
The Sox have financial reasons to either not actually extend or not announce any extensions until after the season starts.
Not saying that all of a sudden they'll announce three in the middle of April, but there's a high financial reason for them to not sign anything until at least after opening day
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 18:24:42 GMT -5
For reference, these are the numbers we're starting from. Rookie … $1,150/month Low-A … $1,300/month High-A … $1,500/month Double-A … $1,700/month Triple-A … $2,150/month And this is for 6 months. No pay at all (save maybe per diem) during spring training, Instructs, mini camps, etc. It's despicable. Those that are able to have franchises that include options for no cost host families can barely stay above water. How the players who play for teams that have no assistance with housing, which requires the player/players to pay for an apartment, they're well under water. It's mind blowing for an industry running $10B+ a year
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 18:22:23 GMT -5
Good lord on the Trout contract. Guess we have a realistic benchmark for Mookie I know Mookie was a shade better than Trout last year, but Trout has been essentially as good as 2018 Mookie Betts every single year of his career. He's on a completely different level than everyone else. I don't know exactly how to deal with that as far as estimating a Betts contract, but that's what it is. For sure. But I think it's a better/more realistic benchmark than Machado and Harper
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 12:19:20 GMT -5
This is long overdue, but I HIGHLY doubt that the end result is actually going to pay MILB guys even close to a realistic living wage. Sure, if it's an across the board 50% increase like Toronto, it helps, but that's still MASSIVELY shy of what it really should be 50% more than nothing is still next to nothing. Correct. They should be getting paid 4x or more what they're currently getting. Raising it .5x is like a quarter of a step in the right direction. At least it appears that they seem to be interested in maybe fixing the problem, but a 50% raise off of garbage #'s still results in garbage numbers
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 12:17:38 GMT -5
So it does indeed look like it's really a 10-year extension following the two remaining years on his current deal, which makes it more palatable, and also more of a realistic baseline for Betts. 12/375 or 12/400 for Mookie and buy out his ARB 3 year. Or you agree in principle now, and agree come next offseason to avoid 2019 luxury tax complications They could agree on opening day for his AAV to not change until next year. Yea, I admittedly am not entirely versed on how extensions can then affect AAV for current year luxury tax purposes. I've read that they changed the rules, but haven't been able to get a full grasp on how the calculations would actually work. If he "signed" on day two of the regular season, would his current year AAV not actually change, even though it could technically be part of the contract?
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 9:57:52 GMT -5
So it does indeed look like it's really a 10-year extension following the two remaining years on his current deal, which makes it more palatable, and also more of a realistic baseline for Betts.
12/375 or 12/400 for Mookie and buy out his ARB 3 year. Or you agree in principle now, and agree come next offseason to avoid 2019 luxury tax complications
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