SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 9:32:51 GMT -5
So Trout's 12/430 kicks in when he's approaching his age 30 season.
How on earth does Mookie not insist on at least matching that and potentially buying out his ARB3 year as a 27-year-old?
I have to think the Angels felt forced to pay that much for ages 30-42 because they're the Angels, he's their franchise player, and they haven't been good. Hopefully Mookie and the Sox both agree that it's not necessary and everyone can be better off on a deal similar to Machado and Harper.
I felt really good about a Mookie extension when Machado and Harper signed, I feel a lot less confident in a Mookie extension on the back of the Trout deal
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 9:28:37 GMT -5
Honestly seems like a bargain compared to Harper, Machado and Stanton. On the face, sure. But apparently this is on top of his current extension, which runs through 2020, so he'll be pushing 30 when this extension kicks in, while Harper and Machado both kick their long term deals off at 26.Apparently it's been updated and it's a 10-year extension following the remaining two years on his current deal Trout is a FAR better player, no one will doubt that, but at 30 vs. 26 for the other guys, I don't think it's a bargain compared to the other contracts
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 9:24:57 GMT -5
This is long overdue, but I HIGHLY doubt that the end result is actually going to pay MILB guys even close to a realistic living wage.
Sure, if it's an across the board 50% increase like Toronto, it helps, but that's still MASSIVELY shy of what it really should be
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Mar 19, 2019 9:20:15 GMT -5
Good lord on the Trout contract.
Guess we have a realistic benchmark for Mookie
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Mar 6, 2019 16:37:08 GMT -5
This doesn’t even make sense, he looks overweight and throws a knuckle ball why would he need to? I would imagine the motives are related to his injuries and recovery Yea, this is so often overlooked as to the main reason why someone takes PEDs/steroids
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 28, 2019 15:39:56 GMT -5
I mean that's certainly less $ than I would have thought for a 13 year deal, and it's way too close to what Washington supposedly offered, even with the deferred money, to make it seem like there was any thought of him going back there. He wanted to leave and wanted to set the record for the largest contract ever signed.
What's crazy is that there's a high possibility that both Mookie and Trout sign deals for a total $ amount for more than $330 within the next 18 months.
I don't think you can really call such a length deal a steal given his injury history and inconsistency, but Philly has definitely mitigated some of the risk by going with the lower AAV, and opened up the option of adding a guy like Trout and still not totally worrying about the top luxury tax limit
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 27, 2019 16:44:32 GMT -5
Ah, I forgot about Castillo and the cap. Agreed that they'll have holes to fill, but they have more flexibility than I thought they did, provided Henry is willing to continue the big spending while the team is a contender. Given their unwillingness to spend on the bullpen, an unlimited payroll forever is not an option. They look like they want to reset the tax next season. It also makes it less likely that they'll agree to an extension of one of their core guys before the end of the 2019 MLB year, unless it somehow reduces the player's AAV. Not sure that's feasible with any of the realistic extension candidates. Betts' extension will be at more than a $20M AAV, Sale's will be at more than a $15M AAV, Xander's will be at more than a $12M AAV. Cot's has them per luxury tax purposes right now at $237.5M, so they don't have much wiggle room, which is why I just don't see them signing Betts before next offseason. If they want to stay under the limit this year, it makes it almost impossible to extend Xander or Sale before FA too
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 26, 2019 22:09:15 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts. I really hope the Sox find a way to keep Bogaerts, Sale, and Betts while hanging onto JDM. Henry indicated that signing all 3 of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts was unlikely, and in the pecking order Bogaerts is probably the 3rd toughest of the 3 to replace - particularly if Sale is reasonably healthy. Meh, I mean sure, they might go after Xander, but SS is certainly not a current position of weakness for them. I guess they could go at 3B, but Xander seems to really want to play SS. I do think Xander is the most likely of those four to not resign with Boston. I also think at some point, we have to stop thinking every top tier FA is going to NY. Sure, at some point they will sign a top tier FA, but it's also worth an acknowledgement that it appears that they struck out on Machado and Harper, and when people then said they would get Arenado, he signed a massive extension there.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 26, 2019 22:04:14 GMT -5
I do think it's a pretty nifty move by MLB to test some new stuff by basically paying an independent league through either straight $ or gear/technology. It's a workaround from putting things in MILB ballparks, where at the lower levels, most stadiums don't have the capacity to test some of these things out. Also makes it so they don't have to deal with the union whatsoever when testing these things out.
And I'm sure many Indy teams are happy about it, because many operate at barely a net profit at best, and now they're getting paid by MLB
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 19, 2019 19:18:18 GMT -5
If Harper follows with a contract of roughly 10/$300M within the next week, and Kimbrel gets some sort of solid if not unspectacular multi-year deal, does that ease at least a little bit of the whole "crisis in baseball" state?
Not that I'm saying the system isn't broken, it is, though I'm not sure it's "that" broken at the top end of the spectrum, but if these guys all wait it out and still get massive deals, then did anyone really screw up?
The far more broken part of the system is the length of time it takes for most everyone to get to free agency and start earning through a free process.
Would it be better for guys to sign earlier? Sure. It would be better for the game/fanbases if nearly everyone was signed by December or January as opposed to mid to late February. But it seemed to make zero difference with JDM last year, Machado got as much as, if not more than, the rough value he was given prior to FA, and it appears as though Harper is likely to follow suit
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 15, 2019 22:28:57 GMT -5
It's certainly a solid deal for the Yankees, but it's not super crazy good, as it's buying out all four of his arbitration years. I know he's much younger than DeGrom, but the salary system in place still doesn't impact it all that much
Compare it to DeGrom, who also is a four-year arbitration guy
A1: 4.05M A2: 7.04M A3: 17.0 M A4: TBD, 2020
So that's $28M plus probably somewhere between 20 and 25 for year four if he's not extended. The club option is where it could become a $10+M surplus for the Yankees. So they've basically traded out the risk of him potentially getting hurt for some surplus in potentially year 5, and maybe slightly in year 4 of the deal.
Again, it's a good deal, and I'd for sure like it if it was a Sox player in the same spot. But once again, he wasn't going to be paid like a top end starter because the current salary system sucks
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 13, 2019 12:07:40 GMT -5
Just read Nola agreed to extension with Phillies. There is nothing to say or do but just very frustrating. When other teams lock there guys down. This is not a dig at the FO because I don’t really know what’s going on but I feel if the player was open to extension there would of gotten done by now. Maybe the players feel the grass is greener somewhere else. Maybe there secret Yankee fans. We will soon see. The next few years will tell us a lot about the direction of the franchise. If they're truly trying to stay under the luxury tax limit (whether you think that's a wise move or not is another topic entirely), they really can't extend any of these guys right now, as it would almost certainly boost up their AAV. When they were trying to do it last year, yet just barely went over, it was the same thing. I'm not saying it's the right way to do things, but if they trust that they can get the guys they want at the price they want as then either hit ARB3 or enter FA, then there wasn't much of an upside from the ownership perspective to sign guys to extensions. The last line of your post is definitely correct. They're going to have to make some tough decisions, many of which will impact the next 5-10 years of the organization, and potentially longer depending on the contracts (mainly Betts). But there's a significant chance that the team in two years is drastically different than it is today, which means the farm system really has to start producing again, either to become MLB regulars at pre-arbitration, or good enough to be moved for a la Sale/Kimbrel
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Feb 6, 2019 19:37:43 GMT -5
Nothing in here really angers me, so that's a positive.
The DH thing should already be in both leagues, I'm fairly surprised that it hasn't happened and there hasn't been more of a push to keep pitchers from hitting.
The problem with eliminating the one out RP is that it's really unlikely to speed the game up that much. They keep doing these small things, that still don't add up all that much. The way to actually make the game 10-15 minutes shorter is to shorten commercial breaks, which they're just not going to do.
Not a fan of them moving the deadline, though it's at least somewhat counterbalanced by eliminating what's always been kind of a weird secondary deadline.
The pitch clock won't be followed, at least not until all the players have spent their entire career in the minors with it enforced.
Modifying the mound is interesting. That's the one that, if enacted, will most impact the actual game.
Just for the love of god, don't use the stupid runner on 2B in extras rule. I have it in the minors now, and it's great, because the games don't matter much, no one wants to be there forever, and any fans that were there are long gone by like the 11th. But in the majors, hell no
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 28, 2019 13:57:24 GMT -5
The Merrifield deal aside, I do think we've begun to see player coalescing around the bad parts of the current system far more than we've seen in the past. Will it be enough to force a labor stoppage? Who knows. It's going to require a hell of a lot of work on the MLBPA side of things to get the union to strike, but the more players like Bryant etc. start talking up how bad it is that so many top FA's are unsigned just weeks before ST, the more believable it is that they may actually strike.
I wonder if something they may be able to get is maybe take away an arbitration year, which in turn allows players to get to FA a year earlier. I'd also like to see an amnesty clause like the NBA has used in the last couple CBA's, an increase on the league minimum, and potentially, if it's usable, a max contract like the NBA, but I don't think that's happening.
They also REALLY should pay MILB guys FAR more than they currently do, but since the MILB guys don't have a seat at the table, I find it hard to believe that the MLB franchises will actually do that
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 27, 2019 22:21:59 GMT -5
The Merrifield deal is far more a product of the system than what he "could have gotten."
Pre Arb in '19, Arb in 20-22.
Sure, he probably could have gotten more in totality by going year to year, but I'm not sure it would be THAT much more
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 11, 2019 19:12:50 GMT -5
I can't seem to find it, but anyone know off hand what the limit is that the Sox would need to stay under to avoid falling back in the draft again? I know it was $237M last year, but can't stumble on the 2019 number
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 11, 2019 18:42:49 GMT -5
Yankees signed DJ Lemahieu, 2 years 24 million. Still won't say they are completely out on Machado until he signs somewhere but this definitely makes it much less likely. Pretty good pickup for them though since they don't seem to want to commit big bucks on a long term deal to anyone right now. Considering the reports tied to the Yankees being out on Machado completely, I think it's fair to assume Machado is out for the Yankees. I'd love to see the MLBPA work in an amnesty clause to the next CBA, similar to what the NBA has done. Basically, the team can buy out the remainder of the player's contract, pay them in full, but take the contract off the books for tax/cap purposes. It would free up more money for many teams who have that one terrible contract, and work out for both sides. I'm not sure the owners would accept it, and many wouldn't even use it even if it was part of the CBA, but it's something
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 11, 2019 13:52:52 GMT -5
With Betts and the Sox avoiding arbitration at the $20M mark for the 2019, an extension to avoid the 2020 arbitration number seems to make sense. His $ for 2020 might be so crazy high that a long term extension won't even raise his AAV that much, if at all.
It's trending toward him getting more money than Machado or Harper, which three years ago, would have seemed crazy. But now, it's pretty much totally deserving. He's the type of guy you make the commitment to
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 11, 2019 13:45:00 GMT -5
Machado always made more sense for New York than Harper did. Unless they're blowing smoke, it doesn't seem like they're super eager to commit $250M+ to either of them, which is just mind boggling.
If the Red Sox didn't have a young and potentially All-Star SS and 3B, I'd be really annoyed if they weren't going after Machado. If the Sox didn't have three All-Star outfielders and a stud DH, I'd be really annoyed that they weren't going after Harper.
It's just so bizarre. The number of players who come up for FA entering their prime is just so far and few between that it's kind of crazy more teams aren't involved. I really do think many/most teams are treating the luxury tax limit as a hard-ish cap, maybe not for actual financial restrictions, but as an excuse to the fan base as to why they won't spend more $
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 11, 2019 13:39:11 GMT -5
Wasn't there literally a report like three days ago that the Sox intended to go with the file and trial approach this season?
Now they're agreeing to deals every hours, haha
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 11, 2019 12:29:26 GMT -5
Nice with Mookie. Glad they could work out a deal. Not sure it really has much of an impact as to whether or not they can work out an extension before he hits FA, but it's certainly better than going to arbitration again, and then again next year
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 9, 2019 16:46:38 GMT -5
Until Ottavino, Kimbrel, and maybe Cody Allen all sign with someone else, I still find it difficult to believe that the Sox won't grab one of the relievers on the market. It's clear that the strategy is at minimum "wait and see," but again, it would be bizarre for them to pretty much not replace the closer and the #3/#4 pitcher in the pen when all it's going to cost is $
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 5, 2019 21:11:51 GMT -5
The RP market is definitely weird. Some guys signing for a lot more than I would have thought, some for far less.
The longer this goes, I think the more likely it becomes that Kimbrel ends up back with the Sox on a 3-4 year deal. Figure a higher AAV than Britton, but if the Sox keep it to three years, with some sort of fourth year option, I'd be happy with that. No way I'd go 5 or 6 years on Kimbrel, and even four is pushing it for me, but waiting out the market may once again favor DD
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 21, 2018 11:55:18 GMT -5
Andrew Miller to St. Louis for 2/$25, $12M vesting option for a third year if he goes 110 games total in years 1/2, full no trade clause
Certainly seems like the Sox's strategy is just to wait everything out and scoop up whoever remains
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 15, 2018 16:43:25 GMT -5
Admittedly I've been away so this may have been mentioned in the last few pages, but this whole "cutting payroll" thing really just feels like a combination of ideally staying under the mark to drop the draft pick placement in 2019 and setting up an opportunity to have money to extend some of these guys without basically locking into the highest luxury tax level for the foreseeable future starting in 2020.
The ironic thing is that many of us really wanted them to stay under the $237M mark in 2018, and now people are upset at even the thought of moving $ around to get below the new $ mark at that level.
I will say that it's bizarre looking back that they barely went over when they had some spots where they clearly could have improved (bullpen) with guys either on one year deals or with trades that wouldn't have cost much. They won the World Series, so it doesn't "really" matter, but if they hadn't, it would have been a pretty significant blunder
|
|
|