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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 30, 2018 19:05:42 GMT -5
I'm not going to complain if they trade for Beltre (unless they give up what seems like way too much), but an upgrade at 3B feels very low on the priorities list unless either Devers is far more hurt than has been explained, or he can magically stay in the lineup and play 2B (he's literally never played there, so....)
I do find it hard to believe that DD is just going to sit back, in particular after seemingly every RP traded has gone to one of the other top contenders in the AL.
Dozier still makes the most sense
Edit: A Rangers writer for MLB.com says Beltre might want to go to Boston, but the Sox don't seem very interested in making that move
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 25, 2018 9:44:47 GMT -5
Sox get Eovaldi per Rosenthal
Edit: Straight up for Beeks apparently
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 22, 2018 16:41:33 GMT -5
Thornburg hits 95 on his first pitch going back-to-back days, sitting 94. Best he's looked with the Sox. If he's a guy they can get going, even as a 6th/7th inning guy, that would be huge
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 6, 2018 10:57:49 GMT -5
The curve was excellent for Mata last night, in particular because of how wild he was with the FB.
His BB/K numbers against lefties are brutal, and it showed again last night. For the most part, he's just able to locate the fastball far better against RHH than LHH.
That said, the FB still looks like it has the chance to easily be his best pitch moving forward, in particular if he adds anything to the velocity. Revved upwards of 95 consistently in the 1st, then sat 93-94, with an occasional 95 as he moved forward.
Credit to him, as it could have been a disastrous outing. Stranded the bases full in each of the first two innings, and in the second, when he allowed three runs, a leadoff walk could/should have been erased on a double play, but Netzer didn't handle it cleanly and got only the out at first.
He and Dalbec are the most intriguing prospects on the team by a long shot IMO, while Chatham could be the most refined guy at the moment to where if I had to pick a guy right now who would probably make it somewhere, it would be him. He was legit robbed of a HR last night, and seems to be fairly smooth at SS
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Post by mredsox89 on May 30, 2018 21:39:39 GMT -5
I meant to add this earlier - Salem & Potomac will now play doubleheaders Wednesday, May 30 and Thursday, May 31, each starting at 5:35 p.m. They will also play doubleheaders on June 11 and 13, each starting at 5:05 p.m. That's nut's It gets better! Got to the bottom of the third tonight, 3+ hour rain delay, night over. Now resumed game tmr at 5, then a 7-inning game after that. Both teams likely to lose two games completely. And still with five games in three days the next time the two teams meet
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Post by mredsox89 on May 25, 2018 14:32:34 GMT -5
The idea coming from Cora is shocking. On the surface, this felt like a DD move, but by all accounts, Cora presented the idea, and DD went with it.
It's evident that the Sox love Swihart and are also fairly petrified of what will happen if either Leon or Vazquez get hurt.
You would think they'd have gotten Swihart more AB's given what they think of him, so hopefully that changes now and he can at least get a couple of starts a week somewhere, be it 1B, LF, or DH
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Post by mredsox89 on May 25, 2018 10:27:32 GMT -5
He's been dismal, his option was going to be a disaster, and again, he's been dreadful. The move actually makes sense, I'm just stunned they actually went with it.
Let Swiahart finally play, even if it's not behind the plate (it should be, at least sometimes, because Vazquez is also dreadful, but that's another story)
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Post by mredsox89 on May 5, 2018 23:09:04 GMT -5
Stuff was evident for Mata, but the continuing command issues were evident from the get go.
Had some ridiculous movement/swings and misses on the changeup, but couldn't locate the FB pretty much whatsoever.
Sox pretty much stole the game
Sweep chance with Hernandez at 1pm on Sunday. Was a mess against Potomac last time after a dominating start to the season. Been good since then. Will be interesting to see him again
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Post by mredsox89 on May 5, 2018 12:27:39 GMT -5
Excited to see Mata live for the first time tonight. Tough act to follow after a strong start from Thompson and Washington's off the walls game last night.
Mata vs. Soto should be fun
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 19, 2018 17:51:53 GMT -5
Highly likely that this is a two year, $50M deal, and then JDM looks for another 5/125 or something, probably from somewhere else.
I'm fine with that
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 14, 2018 20:51:48 GMT -5
You don't "cut bait" with JDM unless he signs with someone else. You force him to make a decision to either likely take a shorter/less valuable deal from Arizona, sit out, or sign with you. Sure, would it be helpful if you have your full complement of players throughout the spring, probably. But I'd be far more concerned with when a guy signs in every other major sport as compared to baseball
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 12, 2018 15:57:19 GMT -5
Is it possible Ken Rosenthal just fabricated the story? Um...I guess but I doubt it. I have to find the quote but when he was asked about it he didn't know if it was really said. His source said it was, but it wasn't an iron-clad answer he gave. Correct. Rosenthal was SUPER non-committal as to what the feelings actually were and what was said, and he's usually pretty steadfast to stand behind his reports. Is/was there some annoyance on the part of JDM that his market (basically just Boston) isn't improving, sure, probably, and potentially deservedly so. Do I think he'll take what is most likely a much less valuable deal to stay in Arizona, or take a one year flier somewhere where he basically has to perform as an All-Star or better in order to get anywhere near $150M come next offseason? Hell no. I guess maybe he could be a consolation prize for one of the teams with a lot of money to spend that doesn't end up with Machado or Harper. But you've also got a potential Kershaw opt-out, Donaldson (admittedly on the old side for a long term deal), and Blackmon, plus a ton of other mid to high level free agent pitchers and some more hitters as well. I just don't see how his market would be any better next year
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 8, 2018 12:33:21 GMT -5
If Martinez has a similar offer from Arizona, he'll take it. But I feel that if Arizona has put forward a similar offer, Boston would probably increase theirs. I'm not sure I buy that he's got something close to 5/125 from the Diamondbacks.
I find it extremely hard to believe that the Red Sox will get "outbid" for a power hitter, which they nearly desperately need, by a team that has never spent anywhere near the amount on overall payroll that they'll be doing if they sign JDM
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 7, 2018 19:06:52 GMT -5
Logic would make you think that the report of Martinez being annoyed with Boston was BS. Sure, maybe he wants them to come up, but if he doesn't have another offer anywhere close to Boston's on the table, it makes no sense for him to thrash Boston.
I still think he ends up signing with the Sox, just as I have all along
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 6, 2018 21:51:12 GMT -5
It's hard to blame Dave Dombrowski for missing the market, when we've literally never seen a market like this. Having said that, he missed it. Correct. I don't fault DD for this. Now if someone other than Boston ends up with JDM for like 5/100, then it's a different story
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 6, 2018 18:07:00 GMT -5
Yeah, that's my point precisely. I don't have a problem with bringing Moreland back. I have a problem with jumping on Moreland that early and at that price. No question. Totally agree. I think they wanted to make a slightly safe play and guarantee that they got someone in case the market moved quickly and teams bit quickly, which wasn't necessarily terrible thinking based on how previous years had gone, but clearly in hindsight, it was a mistake
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 6, 2018 9:43:23 GMT -5
Todd Frazier barely got more than Mitch Moreland, and while he's a flawed player he's easily better than Moreland. I'd much rather have Frazier at that deal than Moreland for his deal. As this offseason goes on the Moreland signing looks more and more baffling. Was the point supposed to be negotiating leverage with Martinez or something? Probably, but also as a backup 1B option. That being said, I think it was a misread of the market based on where everyone's asking price was, and thinking that what normally happens would, meaning some team would meet ludicrous demand.
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 5, 2018 20:56:42 GMT -5
Not that the Sox had been linked to him, but Todd Frazier just signed with the Mets for 2/$17. Pretty cheap for a guy who has been pretty consistent and a 2-3 WAR player.
The market for offense continues to plummet, and it certainly appears that unless Boras lowers his ask for Hosmer/Martinez, neither are signing any time soon
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 2, 2018 13:19:31 GMT -5
Was Bryant's record breaking arbitration # allowed to be used in the Mookie case? I feel like I saw somewhere that it wasn't, but I could be mistaken.
I'm still fairly surprised the arbitrator went with Mookie, if only because precedent, which is almost entirely what arbitration is based off of, hadn't given anyone that much money before this year
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 1, 2018 16:04:28 GMT -5
Betts not working out a deal only means that he does not want to sacrifice his earning potential in exchange for more certainty. That's literally all it means. It says nothing about whether he wants to stay in Boston. The largest extension for a player in the 3+ years of service time class (first year of arb, not a Super 2), per MLBTR ( Link) is the deal Freddie Freeman signed in 2014 for 8/135. The first year of that deal paid him $5.125M. In fact, the second year was for $8.5M. Betts has already nearly doubled Freeman's first year and topped his second year. That said, Buster Posey signed a bigger deal as a Super 2, for 9/167 (and a full no-trade) in 2013. It's a bit strange in that it paid him $3M the first year even though he'd agreed to a one-year, $8M deal to avoid arbitration already, but from there went $10.5M, $16.5M, and into the 20s. At any rate, while year one is a weird comparison because Posey's salary was so low, Betts is already at what Posey was getting in year two. Trout was actually not even arbitration-eligible yet when he signed his deal, actually ( Link), but it started the following season. That 2015 deal, for 6/144.5, paid Trout $5.25M, $15.25M, and $19.25M in his arbitration seasons. Again, Betts is making out like a bandit compared to the best player of our generation. Financially, Betts made a... wager on his earning potential, and it's paying off. At this point, an extension is going to have to look something like $16M/$22M/$30... for a number of seasons to even make him think about it. Something like 5/130 or 6/160. And it might take more. In a different world, they could also ask to tear up the arbitration award and include a salary of like $9M for this season to bring the AAV down over the term of the contract, but that would keep them from signing Martinez this year by adding another $13M or so to this year's cap hit for him. Honestly, and I hate to say this... the arbitration award really hurt the chances for a Betts extension, the more I look at this. I think it destroys just about any chance of any kind of extension before he hits FA, though you could easily convince me that there was already zero chance of that happening. I'm not sure this changes all that much in terms of what the Sox will offer him going into FA or going into his final year of arbitration.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 20:59:06 GMT -5
Yes, it was a realistic offer. It was buying three years of arbitration out, which if they had sided with Boston today would be more like 8/12/18 as opposed to 10/17/25 now. Was it a stellar offer? No. But it was in exchange for guaranteed money.
Trout had also posted a three year fWAR total of 28.7 (10.3, 10.5, 7.9) before his deal started in 2015. Betts meanwhile was at 7.9 in '16, and around 5.0 in '15 and '17. Betts doesn't have nearly the track record of Trout
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 20:44:33 GMT -5
Yes, Cots does include estimated player benefits, 40-man players in the minors, and 25-man players pre-arbitration. They've got the Sox right now at $205,284,600
Castillo doesn't count since he's not on the 40-man roster
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 16:49:46 GMT -5
Well the news of Mookie's arbitration win has some important implications for a potential JDM signing. If the Red Sox wish to avoid the harshest luxury cap penalties (I imagine they would), then they have somewhere in the vicinity of $23M ($237M - $214M) to spend before doing so. Obviously, a JDM signing would eat up most or all of that amount without allowing wiggle room for in-season acquisitions. So where do we go from here? Is it worth offering JDM as a 6th year at a reduced AAV.....say 6 years at $22M a piece ($132M in total)? We would still be right up against the threshold with limited flexibility in season barring a trade. Would any one in their right mind go past the $237M threshold to sign him for fewer years? Cot's only has them at $205 and change after the Betts contract, which is obviously a significant difference than the $214 number, one because it allows another $5-$7M per year on Martinez if needed, and two, because even then, you might still have some room for a deadline acquisition. I also wouldn't be surprised if at some point they didn't clear some salary. I'd be hard pressed to think they carry three catchers for the whole season, so they'll probably be able to move one of them and save $1M. If they sign Martinez, I wouldn't be overly surprised if they traded Hanley and ate part of the deal. Holt could be moved if Marrero/Hernandez show improvements and Pedroia is healthy by May. If they're borderline on that $237 mark, they've got some ways to chip off a little bit to stay under. That said, I've never really believed that the penalties for $237 would prohibit them from making a big addition, or even a deadline move, if it was needed, and if they mapped it out to where it was just for one year.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 14:03:58 GMT -5
I'm not sure they'll do it.IMO the chances are close to nil. They aren't going to overwhelm him and anything less won't get it done. This is what I'm thinking. I don't think a deal happens unless they blow him away, which I think is unlikely. But now that he's set to likely go 10/17/25 roughly in arbitration, they could be more willing to blow him away, knowing they've got these payments coming up anyways.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 31, 2018 13:31:27 GMT -5
Mookie won his arbitration case. Will make 10.5M. Good for him, mediocre news for Boston. It makes his ARB2/3 years even more expensive. Even if he doesn't perform at an MVP type level, he'll probably go step by step near records with Kris Bryant. Him winning this makes it make more sense for the Sox to sign him long term and buy out his last two arbitration years, but I'm not sure they'll do it. I think they might want to keep his AAV down for the next few years so they have a chance (if wanted or possible) to reset the tax, though I'm not sure that's even close to feasible. Otherwise, extend him now, maybe push the cash towards the latter half of the contract, just bring up the AAV and pay the additional 20% tax on his contract
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