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Post by patford on Aug 23, 2021 12:12:53 GMT -5
I'm confident Duran is not a good CF and never will be better than well below average. He should be moved to LF or better yet back to 2B. The reason not to send Duran down comes down to whether or not management still thinks the team can win a WS. If the thinking is this team can not possibly win it all then the focus should be on seeing if Dalbec and Duran can show improvement at the plate and if Duran can play 2B. That seems wildly premature. I’ve seen Duran look a bit shaky on some reads, but I would never say he can’t be at least average. With his speed, even if he makes imperfect reads, he can make up for them. It seems way too early to give up on him in CF. I am.
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Post by patford on Aug 23, 2021 10:11:24 GMT -5
14-19 since Duran’s call up and Kiké moved out of the “every day CFer” role. Honestly I don’t think it’ll be that long until Duran gets sent back down. When Arroyo returns you have to make him the every day 2B and Kiké the every day CFer again. There’s no reason to continue to allow the defense to suffer, especially with Duran not hitting. And there’s no reason to regulate Duran to a full-time bench role when he clearly needs to get ABs and get work in. Is there any reason why the regular lineup (when heathy) can’t be something like: 8 Kiké, 5 Devers, 6 Bogaerts, 3 Schwarber, DH JD, 9 Renfroe, 7 Verdugo, 2 Vaz/Plawecki, 4 Arroyo? Unless Schwarber REALLY can’t learn first? I think we’re kind of screwed if the Shaw/Dalbec platoon survives the rest of the season. I'm confident Duran is not a good CF and never will be better than well below average. He should be moved to LF or better yet back to 2B. The reason not to send Duran down comes down to whether or not management still thinks the team can win a WS. If the thinking is this team can not possibly win it all then the focus should be on seeing if Dalbec and Duran can show improvement at the plate and if Duran can play 2B.
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Post by patford on Aug 22, 2021 13:29:59 GMT -5
Already been postponed. Make-up tomorrow at 1 According to the current weather underground forecast, there's a 20% chance of rain this afternoon and a 40% chance of rain tomorrow afternoon... I haven't looked at a forecast in years. All a person has to do is look at the radar and it's obvious what is coming. I try to use a bicycle whenever possible and the radar has been a god-send for me. You can even see little pockets of clear skies which are about to open up for a half hour.
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Post by patford on Aug 22, 2021 10:42:26 GMT -5
The steps Yorke is making are extremely impressive. After his bad start he began to hit steadily but without a lot of pop. Now he is annihilating the ball without any increase in K rate or decline in average.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 21:29:43 GMT -5
At the risk of being unpopular, let me be the first (maybe?) to call for Cora's job. Team has played poorly for nearly a month. I don't like the way he manages the game and if the player's manager of all player's managers can't get his team to show up then I don’t know what he’s doing managing a team. No way Cora can be blamed except that he got the team into this mess by getting something magical out of a lousy team for half a year. Unfortunately he ran out of rabbits and the hat is empty. I just think people don't get it. This is a bad team. It always was. They had no business being over .500 let alone in first place.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 21:21:00 GMT -5
Yorke might be #1 in the system by next year if he keeps this up. He's a damn hitting machine.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 20:11:36 GMT -5
I console myself with the thought of how much worse it would be if they had traded for Rizzo.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 19:53:30 GMT -5
I now regret the first half. If they’d just sucked, they could have potentialy gotten a good haul for Ottavino and a few others. Totally and I expect that was the plan. I blame Cora for the team winning a bunch of games by doing what I still don't know because even when they were winning they weren't good. It was like a months long magic show.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 19:33:35 GMT -5
BTW. How is Lyles in MLB? He's 30. He's been around for years and he's never been anything but bad. His ERA is always over 5.00. It's not like there is a good year in his career that suggests something other than what he is. I believe he pitched well for the Brewers at one point if you check his stats. My bad. I meant to write E-Rod.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 19:17:11 GMT -5
BTW. How is Lyles in MLB? He's 30. He's been around for years and he's never been anything but bad. His ERA is always over 5.00. It's not like there is a good year in his career that suggests something other than what he is.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 19:14:18 GMT -5
Does anyone have the numbers for Rizzo and Dalbec since Rizzo signed with the Yankees? I suspect Dalbec has the better numbers so subbing Rizzo for Dalbec would have done what? Unofficial: Player | PA | AB | R | H | RB! | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | BA | OB | SLG | OPS | Bobby D | 54 | 47 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | .298 | .389 | .638 | 1.027 | Rizzo | 52 | 41 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | .244 | .365 | .463 | 0.829 |
I started tracking this a few days ago and the numbers are tallied beginning the night of the trade deadline 7/30. Thanks.
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 18:23:51 GMT -5
Does anyone have the numbers for Rizzo and Dalbec since Rizzo signed with the Yankees? I suspect Dalbec has the better numbers so subbing Rizzo for Dalbec would have done what?
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Post by patford on Aug 21, 2021 14:33:35 GMT -5
I was no particular fan of the Robles trade, but he hasn't been that bad - lots of walks, but also lots of Ks, and he's been unlucky with BABIP. Hasn't given up a homer. As a back end of the bullpen guy, he's basically inconsequential, which is what WAR and WPA both say.
Austin Davis, meanwhile, has... been pretty good, aside from his getting burned by a .500 BABIP? I'm increasingly intrigued by him.
Davis actually looks better than Taylor to me. He could be a good pick up. Davis is intriguing. He's too good for AAA and hasn't cut it in MLB. He moved quickly through the minors without a hiccup. His ERA consistently under 3.00.
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Post by patford on Aug 18, 2021 18:51:58 GMT -5
I am sorry, hate getting down on the guys, but that is some atrocious 2 strike hitting by JD and 'Dugo We swing at ball four. They don’t. That's because if we don't swing at ball four it's a called strike three.
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Post by patford on Aug 18, 2021 17:59:54 GMT -5
This years Sox never struck me as a .500 team. My hope was the team would be in a position to sell at the deadline. When they were winning it never seemed sustainable as none of the starters and none of the hitters were having unusually good years and quite a few were very disappointing. They weren't winning because anyone was performing at an unsustainable pace they were just somehow winning in spite of no one on the team leading the way. With none of the starters making it past five inning on a near nightly basis it was inevitable the bullpen would wilt. To me the team has seemed mentally exhausted since before the AS break. A big part of that is almost every game when they were winning was a tooth and nail fight to the death. Imagine a job where every day without fail it was hard and to get through it you had to try as hard as possible. Never a breezy day. The job is hard to begin with and then some piece of equipment fails or is barely working and it's an added struggle. One thing on top of another with the pressure always building. At some point exhaustion sets in and when a team isn't that good to begin with things get bad in a hurry.
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Post by patford on Aug 18, 2021 8:29:59 GMT -5
I'm so pissed right now. In just 23 days they have squandered all of a 9.5 game lead over the Yankees. When they pulled off that miracle comeback that Sunday in July against Loisaga I figured the Yankees were done. Since then the Yankees have lost guys to injuries and the Covid list yet they have caught the Red Sox. The Red Sox have lost their lead to one of the weakest most crippled Yankees squad I can remember. This is a very flawed Yankees team yet the Sox blew the huge lead anyways? What does that say about the Red Sox who got shut out by nobody that would make the 98 Yankees pitching staff? I'm at the point where the only scenario I can root for is Oakland and Boston as wild cards. The other options are NYY and Boston as wild cards or NYY and Oakland as wild cards. Toronto is better than all 3 teams but I don't know what their issue is. I'm at the point that I'd rather see the Sox blow the playoff spot than play the Yankees in the wild card, because if they did have the 1 game playoff the Sox would lose to the Yankees. I can live with losing to Oakland, but not NYY. I have zero faith that this team could win a must win game. They have destroyed any good will built up over three months in a span of 23 days. At this point I wish this team was more like the 2015 squad, a bad team that improved markedly over the second half and gave lots of hope for a bright future rather than a team that teased, yanked my chain, and collapsed. This team should be quite embarrased. I expect them to go out and lose tomorrow before maybe getting their act together against weaker competition. The Yankees just took a series from the White Sox and are 15-4 in their last 19 games. They are not that flawed. I think they will be extremely dangerous in the playoffs. The Yankees' 10th man is the most dominant factor in MLB.
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Post by patford on Aug 17, 2021 16:48:11 GMT -5
It's impossible to beat the Yankees' 10th man when he's on.
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Post by patford on Aug 16, 2021 16:58:32 GMT -5
Yearly bump! The system is deeeeep right now making this pretty fun: Tyler Dearden (UR) – It’s been a heck of a season so far for Dearden. Let’s rewind though for a second. Our 29th round pick in 2017 signed for a slightly overslot bonus of $140,000 and proceeded to put up an OPS of over .800 in each of his first two shortseason seasons (GCL-2017, Lowell-2018). That said, a healthy K% and unsustainable BABIPs dampened enthusiasm, and his 2019 in Greenville was a disappointment. Now after the year off, Dearden is raking in High-A and has made several, somewhat drastic improvements to his offensive profile that have me pushing him up my personal rankings. At the time of writing this, Dearden leads or co-leads our minor league system in both walks (48 BBs, 15.3 BB%) and HRs (17 HR, .268 IsoP). His 143 wRC+ ranks 4th among 57 qualified players in High-A East with only older players ranked ahead of him. If you use a minimum of 200 PAs, his wRC+ is 7th of 81 players with Top 100 prospect Brett Baty as the only younger player ahead of him. His K-rate of 26.4% doesn’t seem fantastic on the surface, but 1) it’s actually a tad better than league average (27.1%), 2) it represents an improvement from his previous seasons typically above 30%, and 3) it’s improved as the season has progressed (34.6% in May, 23.6% since June). The bat is going to have to carry him all the way as a LF profile without speed, but his combo of power and patience alongside manageable contact rates is worth monitoring as he progresses to the upper minors. Elmer Rodriguez (UR) – We now have our most recent draftees among the rankings and I’ll highlight one here who didn’t make the top 60 (understandably so as Elmer Rodriguez is all about projection). So why should we be excited? Well because the Red Sox seemingly are excited. After all, they just invested a 4th round pick in Rodriguez without going too much underslot. What do we know about Rodriguez who cites his grandfather as his inspiration to be a ballplayer? For starters, he was one of the youngest draft eligible HS players in the entire draft. We have to take that into account when considering the volatility of existing scouting looks – in other words, these looks are of a 16–17-year-old still undergoing significant development during which little consistency should be expected. Among the good from those reports: success at Perfect Game events, a FB whose velocity has been creeping up into the low 90s, touching 94, with plenty of projection remaining (6’4”, ~165 pounds), a changeup, slider, and curveball in his arsenal with the change drawing some nice scouting takes, and an athletic delivery. Bottom line – the Red Sox know more than we do about this guy, and if they’re excited, then I believe there is general optimism to be had. Given that he seemingly checks a number of boxes that teams looking for when projecting starters (i.e., early 4-pitch mix, athletic delivery, body type, can throw strikes), Rodriguez has the potential to rapidly climb the rankings in the next 12-24 months. Johnfrank Salazar (UR) – Let’s do DSL diving and analyzing of tiny statistical samples in a league where that’s really dangerous! That said, I don’t think it’s completely meaningless either. I’d probably be writing about Ronald Rosario if he hadn’t gotten injured but instead lets focus on Salazar, a $400K signing from the 2019-2020 draft class. The area I typically narrow in on when scouting offensive stats for batters is the intersection between contact rate and batted ball data/power. If a player is checking both of these boxes to varying degrees, I take that as a really positive sign. Through 77 plate appearances, Salazar has a .328/.429/.438 slash line, perhaps most important zooming in on a 5.2% K-rate. It’s not a ton of power early on, but he does have 5 XBHs (4 2Bs, 1 HR) contrasted to those 4 Ks in those 77 PAs. So that catches my attention early on and that he happens to be doing it as a SS adds a cherry on top. Although we’re often limited in scouting takes among these players, we can also supplement our knowledge of Salazar’s stats with a previous report noting his arm strength. I can also say from social media snooping that Salazar has a frame that looks like it could support some solid strength should he take to the gym. I’m not sure what the range or hands look like at SS, but it’s at least comforting to know that the arm may be an asset there or may allow him a move elsewhere (e.g., 3B) should the rest of the defensive actions warrant that. Alvaro Mejias (UR) – I’m going to take a bit of a shot in the dark here. There have been a number of DSL debuts from the 2020-2021 class this year that I’ve been particularly excited about in Miguel Bleis and Enderso Lira. That said, those guys are ranked and I want to dig a tad deeper. One guy with a ton of upside from our most recent signing class is Alvaro Mejias. Mejias has yet to pitch this year, so that raises the possibility of an injury or other issues that could negatively affect his development. That said I won’t read too much into that yet so let’s focus on the positives: His FB velo crept up around the time of signing and has hit 96 already with a curveball and changeup from a 3/4 type delivery. From some limited social media, the guy looks very long and lean with plenty of projection remaining. The potential for monster velocity is there. Can he locate anything? Is there any pitchability? I have no idea, so there’s a really wide range of outcomes here, but the frame and early reports on quality of his stuff have me as intrigued by Mejias as any other DSL arm except for maybe Perales. It’s a shame he has yet to pitch but I’ll be tracking his name and hope he can debut this year or at least be healthy to begin next year. Brandon Walter (41) – Alright I try to stay out of the top 60 for this exercise, but let me cheat and include a guy who just recently went from unranked to #41. If you’re a close follower of the site, you probably know of Walter given his presence in the gameday threads and player of the week voting this year. Why should we be excited about a senior sign in the 26th round of the 2019 Draft who is turning 25 in September having pitched exclusively in Single-A ball? Because his combination of K%, BB%, and GB% is unmatched in the system right now and that’s essentially the trifecta of stats I’m focusing in on without access to Statcast data. In our system (minimum 40 innings pitched), his 36.8 K% is tops and his 5.1 BB% ranks 7th out 30…that gives him the best K% - BB% edging out Bello and Kutter Crawford. On top of that, he started the year in relief in Low-A and is now starting in High-A without any depreciation in how dominant he’s been across those categories despite the shift to the rotation and advancement in level. In fact his xFIP in Low- and High-A are 2.33 and 2.32, respectively. Really putting his statistical profile over the top for me are his GB rates of 65.7% in Low-A followed by 59.7% in High-A, both great marks with the latter ranking 5th out of 134 High-A East pitchers with at least 30 innings. So even though we should take his stats with a grain of salt given his level-to-age ratio, the scouting looks at him to date add some excitement. We’re not talking about an older guy locating salad. Walter pitches from the left side and is reportedly pitching 92-96 from the left side with a changeup as his best secondary pitch, and a slider with increased lateral movement since signing. It’s a little bit of a funky delivery for a starter, but the stuff and command appear unaffected in terms of allowing him to stick as a starter. He should begin next year in Portland’s rotation and success there push him further up the rankings if he begins to look like a potential backend starter or multi-inning reliever. Thanks for the dive. I love high upside young players. True 90% of them will never pan gold but that is why a system needs a lot of them.
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Post by patford on Aug 16, 2021 16:42:57 GMT -5
My theory is the Sox signed Shaw because if the Yankees signed him he would mysteriously begin drawing tons of walks, bat .270 and hit 12 HR from here to the end of the year.
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Post by patford on Aug 16, 2021 12:52:15 GMT -5
And if they had acquired Rizzo at the deadline they'd be ranked 25th. Insane prices being paid by teams at the deadline. Bloom mostly sitting things out is another good sign.
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Post by patford on Aug 15, 2021 17:51:18 GMT -5
Now do the Yankees.
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Post by patford on Aug 15, 2021 10:05:19 GMT -5
And what are the Brewers doing? Their top four pitchers are all in their 4th or 5th year. All came up in the organization and all are having the best years of their career. Teams like the Brewers, Giants and A's are all having success by figuring out what a pitchers worst pitch is and scaling back it's usage. Woodruff, Gausman being examples.
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Post by patford on Aug 15, 2021 8:04:21 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure his attorneys told him to just shut up but asking Bauer to shut up is like asking a sieve to hold water. There is close to zero chance he will ever play MLB again. Even if he's innocent no one is going to want a sadistic pervert playing for their team. His defense is basically, "Hey I enjoy beating women up during sex."
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Post by patford on Aug 14, 2021 20:21:26 GMT -5
Just to be clear if Dalbec was 0 his last 20 I'd still be saying he needs more time.
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Post by patford on Aug 14, 2021 18:27:22 GMT -5
So it seems real. Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck. What an upgrade! Now we just need Brasier (the good one, not the one that got lit up for 5 runs in Woo yesterday) and Darwinzon (which may mean goodbye to Davis and Robles) from the IL - and most importantly, Arroyo (meaning farewell to Franchy?). If Duran and Dalbeck are finally figuring things out...we will make the rest of the season really interesting for sure. Robles had two very good years back to back with the Angels. And he has pretty good stuff. Davis has had a number of bad short MLB shots but has always shoved in the minors so I assume Bloom thinks at some point his stuff will play in MLB.
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