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Noah Song
May 29, 2023 11:37:37 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2023 11:37:37 GMT -5
You can only put a player on the 60-day IL when you need the 40-man spot. It's always a countermove to someone being added. They've had other guys go on the 60-day first (Hall) because they were more certain to be out for 60 days. Sure but wouldn't it always be at least somewhat useful to have an active player on the 40 man ? Anyhow I think Song being activated or not to the 26 man before July 1st will be a tell. My guess is the Phillies will just keep Song on the 60 man until they have to add him (is that the end of the regular season or the final game of the World Series?). If that is what the Phillies do they have exposed a major loophole in the rules. Meant to respond to this. You only need 26 active players on the 40-man roster. If you have a guy you can 60-day at any time, then you can add whomever you want at the point you actually need them. This can include guys without options, etc. There's no reason to make that move until you need it. And July 3 is the date you're looking for. 90 days before the end of the season on 10/1. If he's not active by that point, he needs to start 2023 on the active roster (although, I would think of that more as a watch point rather than a cutoff point, given that starting the year with him on the roster for some de minimus time like a week or two won't mean much).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2023 8:31:44 GMT -5
The issue, if you want to change something, is that Song's time on the military list counted against his rule 5 eligibility clock. I thought you were going to go with "that Song's major league time" has started, so when he's returned to us we'll lose control over him in 2028 when he opts for free agency. Nah, there's a lot about the Rule 5 Draft that could be tweaked. Another is that 16yo IFAs get the same amount of time before they're eligible as 18/19yo high school draftees. That just doesn't make sense. There's a reason why most of the tough protection decisions (who aren't guys who suffered major injuries like TJS) are IFAs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2023 8:27:23 GMT -5
I wonder about the cause/effect at play here though. It's it that he's choosing not to throw all 3 pitches to LHB or is it that he lacks feel for one or two that outing?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2023 8:23:18 GMT -5
Shouldn’t Jordan also be promoted? Maybe the most under-rated Sox prospect. I'm guessing scouts don't like his body type but all he does is keep hitting. Copied from the Mayer thread. For what it's worth, in April, he had one of the highest chase rates and lowest pitches per PA average in the system. I'm curious to see how that looks after another month though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2023 3:55:08 GMT -5
I don’t want to be debbie downer. But 30 pages for a guy who will never play for us seems insane. Mayer is at 6 pages as a top 5 prospect in all of baseball and still on our team. I mean, what do you want to discuss about Mayer? "He's good huh? Can't wait until he's up." "Yup, agreed." A guy being good doesn't lead to much discussion. A guy having an incredibly interesting background, signing for below slot, disappearing for an unclear length of time, then being the most unique Rule 5 pick in some time leads to a lot of discussion. It's similar to a sentiment that Lou Merloni has shared post-sports talk radio that the reason they're all so negative is that it's hard to have interesting discussion about things that are going well. And if "too many pages about a guy who will probably never play in MLB" is a thing that bothers you, this may not be the forum for you
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2023 6:14:32 GMT -5
He said about 3 'other' teams so about 4 if you include the Sox. I can't speak to what JG means but my feeling is: saying "about 3" is akin to saying "I'm just going to make a number you will print." Who can not keep track of 1,2,3,4,5? TFG proved he could do it with five objects, and in order. Not a high bar. So I would guess another team or two "might have" expressed interest. But I wouldn't rule out zero either because surely an agent of Boras's accomplishment could argue how close three is to zero. "About 3 others" probably means there were 3 teams they were talking to with interest in him as an MLB starting outfielder but once the Red Sox made their offer they grabbed it because it was a good number and good fit. In other words, he's not saying that many had the same offer, but probably that there were talks with that many teams.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2023 4:38:51 GMT -5
You can only put a player on the 60-day IL when you need the 40-man spot. It's always a countermove to someone being added. They've had other guys go on the 60-day first (Hall) because they were more certain to be out for 60 days.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2023 8:12:51 GMT -5
Who needs starting pitchers when you can run 3 bullpen games?
Freal though I wonder if we see Coffey in Portland soon just out of necessity.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2023 2:12:29 GMT -5
I think this is what several people thought was going to happen. Kind of weird, he's not really injured he's just not able to pitch at the major league level. Seems like an abuse of the system, but I don't hear the Sox complaining so maybe they don't care enough to push back on it. It's a clear abuse of the system but the rule is apparently toothless and this will likely lead to more teams pulling the same kind of stunt once they see the rule which they thought applied is actually meaningless. My assumption was the Phillies would keep Song on the 15 day IL (the 15 days mean nothing as a player could hypothetically be kept on the 15 day IL for eternity) and then activate him around July 1 so he could get in his 90 days on the MLB roster. Keeping Song on the 15 day IL only cost the Phillies a 40 man spot. By moving Song to the 60 day that 40 man roster spot can be filled, Song can not complete the 90 days this season and so the Phillies will also get the whole off season to have him continue his rehab. I believe the 60 day IL is also open ended so in effect MLB could allow the Phillies to spend a full spring a full season a full off season and the first three months of next season without Song ever having to be on the 40 man roster and then he could start the 90 days on the MLB 26 man roster. Not to pick on you but none of this is correct. His transfer to the 60-day IL is meaningless - it doesn't start a new clock, but rather dates back to when he was first put on the IL. He is eligible to come off the IL in less than a week. Also, as stated above, there is no IL during the offseason, so he'd be on their 40-man roster the entire offseason.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2023 4:51:49 GMT -5
Q&A going on now: Isaac S. 53m ago What differentiates Matt Shaw and Tommy Troy? And which of the two do you prefer? Unlike Keith Law · 8m ago isaac S. Shaw has to go to second base for me. Troy at worst is at third, I think. Both can really hit. Honestly you can take either and I won't argue. To me they're two of the three most underrated college bats in the draft along with Colton Ledbetter. May need us to draft Colton Ledbetter for our game day threads Didn't even need to look to know that Dunne had liked this post.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2023 4:49:11 GMT -5
It does.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2023 4:48:06 GMT -5
I mean, if there were 3 other teams interested, you could talk to executives from 20 teams and not talk to any of the 3. Does that mean McDaniel did a poor job? Is the standard that you need to poll all 30 teams when you're taking the temperature on the industry's take on a guy? If 4 teams were interested at the price he signed for and 26 teams thought that was nuts, was McDaniel even wrong?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2023 1:46:18 GMT -5
I don't see this being much more than just an insurance policy in case one of the other starters gets hurt again in the next week or two. I don't see his stuff being any better in the bullpen so he's a straight up mop-up long reliever if he even makes it into a game. As Notstarboard said when Whitlock and Schreiber are back what role would Kluber really have? This. Nobody from Mata, Walter, and Murphy has established themselves as ready to provide depth, so they need to hoard it in the MLB bullpen in the form of Pivetta, Kluber and Crawford.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2023 14:56:31 GMT -5
And again, it's not like other teams didn't know about his issues. Teams don't make trades based on triple slash line anymore.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2023 14:53:30 GMT -5
The countermove to Rogers promotion is Bradley Blalock activated by Salem. He was on the Greenville long-term IL, but activated and assigned to Salem so it's not technically a rehab assignment. I'm assuming he'll get the start tonight. Yeah I guess you can't rehab in Salem as a Drive player.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2023 16:30:11 GMT -5
Because not all prospects are created equal and the existing information prior to those 60 career at-bats still matters a lot. That’s interesting. Well don’t look at Tristan’s WAR this year because he’s tied with Kluber dead last on the team. Also last 7 games because he looks like a lot more of a AAA player. 2/21 8 strike outs 2 walks. Yet everyone on this thread is very quick to have his back. Valdez hits RHP. Really well. We knew he could do that. He's doing that in MLB. .309/.356/.546. Sick. He also can't hit LHP (not getting much of a chance but 0 for 8 with a HBP and 4 K when he does) and is an adventure defensively. All of this we knew. When a guy comes up and is what you hoped he was, you don't hope he turns into something much better than that because of reasons. But he's doing as well as we could've hoped. Casas, meanwhile, has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. The difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (in the unlucky direction) is 13th-highest on baseball at 0.050. Difference of 0.076 between his slugging and expected slugging. Are there things he needs to fix that aren't luck? Sure. Needs to do better on pitches in the zone. Needs to be better on defense. But there's a taxi record that suggests he has the capacity to make those adjustments. Valdez, meanwhile, has always had huge splits and been rough defensively. It's not a double standard at all. When a guy has a track record in the minors, your evaluate what they do in the majors against that. MLB is different but it gives you data. By the way, Casas has a BABIP of .083 in that recent stretch. 8 Ks is bad, no doubt, but he's also not been true 2-for-21 bad.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2023 16:14:45 GMT -5
For the first 11 of those games he hit .270/.357/.432. Is it a 15-game slump or a 4-game slump? 0 for his last 11. The 15 games prior he hit .289/.383/.423. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2023 16:12:09 GMT -5
If it feels like this is the third time the Sea Dogs have seen Kloffenstein, that's because it is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2023 0:44:58 GMT -5
Funny part is he may or may not even win our POTW against Coffey.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 20, 2023 8:40:07 GMT -5
Seems like a decent get for a guy I figured they'd lose for nothing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 19, 2023 14:30:46 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 19, 2023 8:45:23 GMT -5
I care less about who ranks at the top of prospect lists than I do about who makes up MLB teams/regulars/stars. This is from Bleacher Report but should be easily verifiable. bleacherreport.com/articles/2894865-mlb-draft-2020-do-more-future-stars-come-from-high-school-or-collegeI think what this guy missed on the future piece is that college players are going to graduate from a list sooner. If you draft a player in year 0, but year 3, if he is a top prospect, he's probably in MLB, whereas that's far less likely for a high school draftee. Run that scenario over the draftees for 30 teams over 5 years and I think you're always going to have more HS guys on lists.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 19, 2023 8:37:26 GMT -5
Joel certainly doesn't go about things the wrong way.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 19, 2023 5:54:52 GMT -5
Ian had some great insight on him on the latest pod. Not super enthused there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2023 21:31:03 GMT -5
Blaze Jordan is a guy I would really like to be revisited at some point. If you told me before the season that he'd be running a .213 ISO (I don't know what average is but he's 13th in the system and higher than Kavadas so I'll take those things to mean it's at least good) while also only a 16.3 K%, I would've thought the hype would be a little more palpable. Yeah, I get he's first base only which makes it a little less exciting. Yeah, the walk rates aren't great. Yeah, the lower levels are a little diluted. But it's not like this is a senior Niko Kavadas or anything, he's 20 years old and hitting extremely well even without factoring in age advancement. Truthfully I am not even going to argue he should be ranked all that much higher, I could pretty comfortably make an argument for him over Wikelman but I think the top of the system is strong enough to where I get him being where he is. I more so would just be interested in a checkup on how his peripherals (swing and miss, chase rate, exit velo, stuff like that) are holding up and whether his performance so far fundamentally changes his outlook at all, even if it's jump bumping the FV on the hit from a 40 to a 45 or something. I mean, we knew he had power. Based on the April numbers, the 39% chase rate needs to come way down. Would like the hard-hit rate to come up too. Also sees the fourth-lowest pitches per plate appearance among hitters with 50 PA. That said, this is all SSS and he's been decent in May, so let's see what these look like on June 1. But yeah nothing there is terribly inspiring.
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