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Recent Posts
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 19:30:23 GMT -5
Clever. Develop a bad reputation for defense, then trick other teams into outs by faking errors.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 19:29:24 GMT -5
Whitlock’s thrown more innings than Montgomery. Obviously circumstantial. I'm willing to bet Montgomery has more after the season. I am genuinely not sure.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 19:26:30 GMT -5
Pitchers like Whitlock are why I demanded Montgomery. Whitlock’s thrown more innings than Montgomery.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 19:24:40 GMT -5
Is this team cursed again Curse of Mookie.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 19:21:08 GMT -5
Whitlock might be made of glass.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 18:23:03 GMT -5
Yoshida back underwater in WAR. Good thing he is also unplayable in the field.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 9:45:34 GMT -5
There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck). Even if we take your strawman at face value (nobody actually said it's fun to watch the team lose), who cares if people enjoy the game differently than you? Why can't I see Rafaela hit the ball really hard and be encouraged by that, even if it didn't pan out this time? That is fine. It is more being told not to believe what you see that I am responding to.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 9:43:49 GMT -5
There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck). It's just a way of describing what happened in the game. Or was there a part in eric's comment where he said it was actually fun to watch the team be unlucky for three hours?
I got radicalized about all this during Eduardo Rodriguez's heinously unlucky 7-game stretch in 2021. I could see with my own eyes that he was being exceedingly unlucky. Though his ERA was garbage, the x-stats backed that up. And but SO many people - Dave O'Brien excruciatingly chief among them - went on and on about how poorly he was pitching, about how he needed to be better. For all the talk about "I only care about what happens on the field," it seems to me that people who reject probabilistic thinking are making it harder for themselves to see what's actually in front of their faces. I would agree more if this was chess. But I watch to have a relaxing three hours, not calculate probabilities. I suspect I’m in the majority. I mean, are things like how many parks would a fly out be a HR interesting trivia? Occasionally. Is it meaningful? No. In the old days, luck was summed up as “hit ‘em where they ain’t.” Can we do x adjustments on bad coaching? On guys with tight hammies whose range is limited that day? On and on… it is pseudo science, trying to put possibility in a lab that can’t control for the flapping wings of a butterfly in Brazil.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 8:49:00 GMT -5
Which Red Sox player had 3 PA yesterday, and had EV's of 100.3, 101.7, and 102.5, in that order?
Yup, the new maybe-shortstop.
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It seems ludicrous to declare a 6-0 loss to be a coin toss plus bad luck, but the more I look into the details the more convinced I am that it's true. It's too close to my bedtime (5:30 AM) to break it down now, but if anyone cares, let me know. Teaser trailer: which team's bullpen gave up 7 lucky or cheap hits, versus one by the opposition?
That’s just baseball though it’s relatively all evens out over a season There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck).
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Post by manfred on Apr 15, 2024 16:54:37 GMT -5
Geez, Dave O'Brien would not let it go about that error. It took it from 3-0 to 4-0; big whoopm aybe a 3% swing in win expectancy. And then he was on such a bender about defense that he started complaining that a drop at 2B later in the game might have cost them another out, which was clearly not the case. All this in a game in which the Red Sox otherwise played some really sharp defense. Meanwhile, the pining for Jose Iglesias, of all people, continues to befuddle. He hasn't had a good defensive season since 2019. He was *out of baseball* last season. If they need to add someone I think they can do better. Burleson?
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Post by manfred on Apr 15, 2024 12:19:14 GMT -5
Can’t watch cause of work, see there was a CLE homer to put them ahead, but… don’t care. KUTTER. Pay that man. You missed a brutal collision between our 2 best hitters and lots of blood from the forehead of TON Well, that actually makes me happy to be working.
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Post by manfred on Apr 15, 2024 12:12:05 GMT -5
Can’t watch cause of work, see there was a CLE homer to put them ahead, but… don’t care.
KUTTER. Pay that man.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 14:29:45 GMT -5
Positive WAR!
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 14:14:17 GMT -5
hey Pablo Reyes did a thing! Hey! Pablo Reyes did another thing!
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 14:02:53 GMT -5
Walking Duran seems like bad tactics.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 13:15:34 GMT -5
You SOBs who mocked Rendon… you know who you are… obviously don’t know how jinxes work.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 12:57:03 GMT -5
Does anyone really believe that the uniforms make a difference? Correlation is not causation. They cause me to want to listen to the game on the radio.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 12:51:34 GMT -5
Casas going to take off now. Big year coming.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 12:44:47 GMT -5
Man, that is one of those drool-worthy innings for Bello. Blow away Trout? Yes please.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 11:50:16 GMT -5
Yoshida's projections were quite a bit better than any of those guys, but now they're only marginally better than the cheap one-year guys and in line with the still-much-cheaper multi-year guys. Here are the ROS wRC+ ranges & medians across the various projection systems Fangraphs shows for each player:
Davis: 102-106 (Median 105)
Martinez: 101-110 (Median 106) Turner: 98-115 (Median 107) Yoshida: 106-117 (Median 114)
Hoskins: 111-115 (Median 114)
Soler: 111-122 (Median 116)
And all of these other guys are RHH, which would have made more sense with the Sox roster even before the Story injury, but especially now. All but Martinez (who is injured) have also started better than Yoshida, so he'd look a smidge worse across the board if you added everyone's current season totals to their ROS projections.
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My basic point is that Story's contract made a ton of sense given his MLB track record, the Sox' roster needs, the FA climate, and the price. I don't feel it's reasonable to knock the deal retroactively based on his broken wrist and shoulder injury, as no GM could have anticipated those. He had been nothing but durable in Colorado aside from the elbow, and even that he was mostly able to play through. He's also been pretty solid in Boston while healthy despite the adversity from his injuries. Yoshida, though, looked like a gamble at the time given his lack of MLB experience and poor roster fit (another weak defender on a team full of them, another LHH on a team loaded with young LHH, another guy without speed, etc.). I was willing to trust the team's evaluation of his talent and withhold judgment, and I still am given that we're only early in year 2, but that's a deal that pretty much can only be evaluated with hindsight given that Yoshida hadn't played in MLB prior to signing, and so far the returns look poor.
I could quibble with some of the points about the projections, but I pretty much agree with what you're saying here. I'm just still fairly optimistic on Yoshida and not inclined to come to a negative judgment yet. See my comment above - he had a 155 wRC+ over a full half of a season! That's not something a crummy hitter would be able to pull off. It also seems like if it were an issue of the league adjusting to him he wouldn't have been able to keep it up for that long. And we also have a plausible alternative theory about why he faded in the last third of the season last year, seemingly confirmed by the man himself.
So we'll just have to see.
61 games, 195 plate appearances 15 home runs, .269 ba, .344 ob .611 slugging (.955 OPS). Robert Dalbec, second half, 2021. I think sometimes crummy hitters work wonders.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 11:43:46 GMT -5
It is a lefty starter. Should it be Masa? Dalbec pretty much has to play, right? And has to hit somewhere? But, yes, he’s terrible. Not a good stretch. I would take Wong or Yoshida over Dalbec in that spot. Probably. But I don’t think it is fair to act like Cora is not trying. I can see why Dalbec is there if it all Cora has to work with.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 11:19:20 GMT -5
With 147 games left, he’d need a 50 point swing in wRC+. Out of curiosity, for the mathematicians, what would that be for the rest of the season? In 155 career games he’s at 106. So he’d be kicking it into a gear we have not seen. To end the season at 125, he'd need to go roughly 130 the rest of the way. (Not exactly a gear we haven't seen - from April 22 to July 25 last season he had a 155 wRC+ over 313 PAs.) So he’d have to approach his peak but for almost twice as long. I’ll take the under.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 10:57:53 GMT -5
Yoshida has a 106 wRC+ in his MLB career with no glove. I am not closing the door on him becoming more than that - we've all seen how he looked last year when he was hot - but replacing Yoshida's production would have been incredibly easy. Guys like JD Davis are practically being given away nowadays. Soler got less than half of Yoshida's guarantee and Hoskins got more like a third. JDM and Turner types are available on one year deals at like two thirds of Yoshida's AAV. FWIW, Yoshida's projections are comparable to Hoskins' and better than any of the other guys you mentioned (though also comparable to Turner for the length of his one-year deal; and here it would be relevant that the Red Sox did in fact sign Turner as well last season).
Yoshida was fine last season overall; he gave them a 109 wRC+, which is not great for a poor-fielding LFer but also there were not other great options available. Kind of a wash in year one of the deal. So the question is still how good he'll be going forward. If he finishes with, say, a 125 wRC+ or better this year the signing looks pretty good; 110 or worse and it looks pretty bad.
With 147 games left, he’d need a 50 point swing in wRC+. Out of curiosity, for the mathematicians, what would that be for the rest of the season? In 155 career games he’s at 106. So he’d be kicking it into a gear we have not seen.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 10:06:14 GMT -5
Dalbec is quite possibly the worst hitter we’ve seen inn the last 10 years. How about not batting 5th? It is a lefty starter. Should it be Masa? Dalbec pretty much has to play, right? And has to hit somewhere? But, yes, he’s terrible. Not a good stretch.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 9:36:59 GMT -5
Duran LF, Reyes 2B, O’Neill RF, Casas 1B, Dalbec 3B, Yoshida DH, Wong C, Rafaela CF, Hamilton SS As noted by Red Sox Stats on Dalbec - “16 plate appearances, 10 strikeouts, 2 fly outs, 3 ground outs, and a grounded into double play. 61 strikeouts in his last 122 plate appearances.” 😞 There’s no quit in Cora What can he do?
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