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Post by widewordofsport on May 16, 2013 13:38:16 GMT -5
"Surely all of these players would go on to make glorious contributions in Fenway!"
IIRC, Brian Rose's best contribution to the Red Sox is that Montreal got to choose Tony Armas JrCarl Pavano or him, and took Pavano, in the Pedro deal.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 16, 2013 13:35:03 GMT -5
I think it's insane to project Owens/Ranaudo/Barnes/Webster all as top 3 starters. Those guys have a top 3 ceiling, and it's crazy to think all four could get there.
I assume that Shaw/Lavarnway (both below-average MLBers, can't see either hitting long-term at that level, esp at those positions) have been covered, and as much as I like Vazquez line this year, I'm not sure I pencil him in as a starting catcher because he got 6 extra walks in April-May.
Farm system is in good shape, and has a lot of intriguing guys. But there's a reason why someone like me saw Workman's college stats, and underrated him, then his lower minor league stats and overrated him, and that in the end he'll end up as a 7-8th inning guy for the Red Sox. 'Stuff' just doesn't translate linearly.
As for Coyle, I haven't changed my view on him since the talk about Coyle vs. Cecchini a month ago. I haven't seen anything to make me think he'll hit enough to show that power. He'll have to learn to make (softer) contact more consistently just to make the majors.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 15, 2013 14:31:25 GMT -5
In four years, the Red Sox might have a nice rotation, good young hitters coming into their own, and we'll all be talking about how devoid of talent the upper levels of the minors are. It's just how the cycle goes. If Owens can become a MLB SP by 2016/7, who is even the next SP prospect in the system? Someone from the Lowell rotation I guess, but no sure things.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 23:26:12 GMT -5
Andrew Miller: 5.1 BB/9 (AA) 6.4 BB/9 (AAA). 5.3 in the Majors.
I'm a little surprised at how well most pitchers (eg Lester) have been able to improve control as they develop, into the majors. I have a hard time seeing Webster not making it at least as a back of the rotation guy.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 23:17:44 GMT -5
Webster is really young to pitching still... I think he's shown too much ability to at least temporarily fix his command to end up like Andrew Miller or something.
By comparison, another fringe rotation-bullpen arm, Doubrant has 4.5 BB/9 this year at MLB; 3.9, 3.7, 3.0 over his last 3 seasons in the minors (though 120/80/77 IP those years).
Lester was always 3.7+ in the minors, and then spiked to 4.4/4.8 in his first couple MLB years, and has been 2.6-3.5 since.
Basically my convoluted non-point is that the BBs are still concerning, and will go a long way to make Webster a #2 vs. a #5 SP, but he's no further away than anyone else and it's common for BB rates to spike in the first few years in MLB. He seems like the kind of pitcher that will have some growing pains, but we really won't know who he is for 3+ years.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 20:36:01 GMT -5
"How about if someone says the control problems that have accompanied him his whole career haven't really been "fixed"?"
Nooooo, the logical answer can't be it. Webster is a future ace!!! If he can get his BB rate down towards 3 this season, that'll be an encouraging start. 3.5/4.2 the last two years. He has the stuff to challenge hitters if he can hit location and work more with the sinker. 2.7 BB/9 isn't so bad this year, tonight notwithstanding.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 19:46:19 GMT -5
If someone can say he got squeezed, or was trying something out or bad weather, or whatever, I'd feel a lot better.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 19:45:39 GMT -5
I'm not as encouraged by Webster's line tonight. The command was what had him as a mid-back rotation starter last year. 5IP, 5K, 3H, 1R all look nice, but 4BB is a lot. It's a lot easier to around hitters in AAA, but those walks will make him pitch back in the middle of the plate, and last MLB start, that ended badly.
That said, without an in-person report, it's just conjecture and guessing on how seriously to take the walks. Hopefully he can continue to work on whatever fix he had going on in the Spring.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 18:53:11 GMT -5
The box score says Austin Maddox is pitching for Greenville, FYI.
Webster with 3 baserunners (2 BB, 1 H) in 3 IP.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 2:36:05 GMT -5
6 XBH from Mookie is impressive. April was a miserable month for that middle infield which was supposed to be pretty good. (Vinicio is 2-33 this month).
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 2:30:41 GMT -5
"From looking at his numbers, I don't see how he does give us much more than 100 innings this year, even including the minors."
That's your answer. RP innings aren't the same as SP innings either, so to put a guy on an innings limit in a situation you want him to pitch consistently (before September) doesn't make much sense. For the record in 2012 Webster had 130 IP, and 145 in 2011, so he should be getting close to having some constraints taken off.
Very interested in the Morales direction. I didn't think he'd get a fair chance to start, with Aceves/Lackey/Doubrant all going for it. A couple of those guys rapidly are taking themselves out of consideration.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 14, 2013 2:24:25 GMT -5
Once I saw Drew and Puig in the same sentence, even as a 'long shot' this thread lost credibility. I actually might take a trip down to go see him this month.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 13, 2013 15:38:17 GMT -5
Just curious on the top 100 question, EVERYONE SETTLE DOWN.
FWIW, John Sickels really liked him going into the year, believed in the power. He had him 4th, with B/B+ grade.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 13, 2013 15:29:19 GMT -5
I can't see any way DLR gets ahead of Webster on the depth chart. You can't have a guy coming off rehab pitching down the stretch for a team that will need innings. Also, let's see him keep his command a few more months. Webster had one bad start.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 12, 2013 13:25:42 GMT -5
So where does Cecchini fall on the top 100, if he reaches Portland by late summer and does okay there? Is he pushing a top 50 prospects if he settles at .330/.420/.540 (all below where he is now) and gets to AA as a 22 year old in July/August? That would put him very close to the JBJ track stats/age wise. With the elite defense, Bradley was #30, so Cecchini could be 50-60 range.
(JBJ was born 4/19/1990, Garin was born 4/20/1991)
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Post by widewordofsport on May 12, 2013 13:16:25 GMT -5
I remember a lot of talk about adjustments in A+ ball, and that the maturity/work ethic was a big reason you could project him reaching his ceiling more than a guy like Almanzar (regardless of the last 18 months). Going into the season, I don't think you care about anything from the first half as he adjusts, and I don't think there is any need to get him to Pawtucket before 2014 (though it looks like it'll happen). There's going to be a ton of talk trying to get him to make the club on Opening Day next year, and look where that got JBJ (as an aside, I nearly lost my mind at the JBJ talk, he had a HALF season at AA and did 'ok') . They hype machine can really mess with a prospect... I'd rather him not really hit Pawtucket until he's legit injury-insurance, and won't be forcing it in a short call-up. (You know, sort of like what the FO did with BBard before changing their mind again last week).
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Post by widewordofsport on May 12, 2013 3:00:01 GMT -5
Seriously, what to I have to do to get "Daniel BBard" to catch on?
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Post by widewordofsport on May 11, 2013 19:13:44 GMT -5
Rubby's changeup is a plus to better pitch though, isn't it? If Montas gets a second plus pitch, that will change his floor/ceiling pretty quick.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 11, 2013 14:04:41 GMT -5
Montas' ER in 5 of his 6 starts: 2,4,4,4,4. And then there's that 1H/9K/0BB in 5 IP Apr 29. Tantalizing. 0 BB in 4/6 appearances, too.
Like Almanzar though, I just keep seeing him playing his way out of the org. Can't wait for reports on how they do against good competition.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 10, 2013 15:55:40 GMT -5
"Fire up those pun guns boys!"
I'm sorry, we were looking for "set your phasers to pun"
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Post by widewordofsport on May 10, 2013 12:48:44 GMT -5
Some really solid racism in that Aaron report. "Negro ballplayers as a whole are front runners in my estimation. When ahead they look very good, and very bad when behind". I'm not really sure what that even means, but I'm fairly certain nothing fair or accurate ever started with "Negros as a whole are"
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Post by widewordofsport on May 8, 2013 16:38:47 GMT -5
I think the Sox added Hassan because at the time, they just didn't have any depth close to the majors (before Carp/JBJ were thoughts). I disagreed with it not because he wasn't depth, but because even if they lost him, a replacement OF of his level would have been easy to come by.
RP decisions will be tough. I can't see it with KDLC, can't see him getting picked without really having a good stretch at Salem and into Portland.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 8, 2013 13:35:04 GMT -5
Let me know when either of them breaks the .200 BA mark.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 8, 2013 12:33:18 GMT -5
Now what will distract me from this paper? Honestly, day/morning minor league ball is one of my favorite things about the spring/summer. See, you need to do what I did. Take a "Leadership and Team Management" class in which you have to write your final paper about a situation in which you have to analyze failures in leadership. Hellooooooooooo 2012 Red Sox. So for my internal medicine clerkship... Hellooooooo 2013 Red Sox?
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Post by widewordofsport on May 8, 2013 11:55:08 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and pretend that he's actually hitting the zone, his curve is just so nasty the ump can't tell where it cross. Yep, sounds good.
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