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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2021 22:44:02 GMT -5
I opened this thread thinking it was going to be about Casas and thinking that it is an interesting comparison (there are lots of similarities in approach, unorthodox stances, how Casas's other skills might play up if/when he grows into his power, etc.) but obviously it would be unfair to expect any prospect to turn into Jeff Bagwell.
So with that in mind, it was a fun and unexpected swerve.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2021 12:40:39 GMT -5
Just in case anyone here likes that sort of thing.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 20, 2021 17:01:10 GMT -5
Fabian was striking out too much earlier in the season. He started changing his approach and adjusting his leg kick--visibly--with two strikes. This caused him to strike out less frequently, improving his overall line. The strikeouts, even after the adjustments, were too much for an elite college prospect, which is why he was available with the 40th pick in the draft despite a plus defensive profile in center field and legitimate power.
There's nothing in the preceding paragraph that's remotely controversial. Law twisted the words of people saying he made an adjustment into people saying he was fixed or some such. I don't know why he does stuff like that. It would've been easy to say that he unintentionally exaggerated his point, which was (seemingly) that he didn't think the adjustments were enough to rate him as a prospect. And that's crazy because that seems like a very fair opinion!
He has been uncommonly high on Groome for a long time. I have no problem with that. Rating Groome above Casas because Groome's strikeout rate is high? As a 2016 draft pick who is still in High A? Nahhhhh. If you're going THAT far off the board I need to see a better reason.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 20, 2021 14:27:48 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 19:17:06 GMT -5
Domo Arigato?
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 18:24:29 GMT -5
Eric Filia we hardly knew ye
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 18:09:35 GMT -5
Maybe you could make a comparison to Dalbec here, but that was an 11-game stretch and then a 5-game stretch late in a season in which he thoroughly stunk for the first 3 months. (The August stretch actually began immediately after he'd been gone for almost 2 months - in AAA? - so I'm wondering if the league "forgot" its adjustments to him, or if he made a new one that was just very quickly exposed.) By contrast, Dalbec has already had the following stretches this season: 4/11-4/27 (13 games): .325/.372/.550 5/7-5/20 (11 games): .316/.366/.737 6/10-6/20 (9 games): .382/.432/.794 He's spent almost half his season in hot streaks. It's just that his cold streaks are soooo bad.
Or even overall, from 5/7 to 6/29 (38 games) he was a very playable .246/.293/.523.
I guess my point is... it's like Dalbec's thing works some of the time, even with the league presumably having adjusted. And then sometimes he looks terrible. It's not just prospect hope or any early power surge that we're still dreaming on - he has gotten it done at the major league level for some notable stretches! And he still hasn't come close to a full season's worth of PAs yet. So is it too much to see some potential for him to lock into his groove on a more consistent basis?
So yeah, that's sort of what I'm talking about. Is .325/.372/.550 really a hot streak? Like, if Martinez or Devers or Bogearts did that over 13 games nobody would even notice. Not only have the cold stretches been too cold for too long, the hot stretches really haven't been that hot. One streak where he hit like a good first baseman for two weeks, One where he hit .316 but popped a few homers for a week and a half, and once for 10 days he got some luck on his side while his K and walk rates remained awful. Building on what Chris said about aggregate stats vs. arbitrary endpoints, we all know that the arbitrary endpoints aren't necessarily meaningful on their own, but we're looking for mini-trends, possible reasons to be optimistic or to be patient or whatever. With Dalbec, it's the opposite. Carving up his stats make his bad numbers look even worse. He's unplayable for weeks at a time and then he'll hit like three homers in a week but also have all his other numbers be as bad as they were otherwise. Even his good stretches aren't promising. I feel like I'm being pretty harsh here, but at some point when you're talking about giving out playing time at the major league level I have to give what I think is an honest assessment.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 16:01:13 GMT -5
Yes, makes sense, and you're reminding me that this is kind of what I semi-expected this past offseason, when I was more bearish on Dalbec than most... But what's your read on the fact that he's still able to put together those uber-hot stretches? He's done so as recently as June (.382/.432/.794 from 6/10 to 6/20), and he had a general improving trend this season until the last few weeks. I don't think Middlebrooks or Chavis ever really did that after the league made adjustments to them. Is it reason to still see potential in Dalbec, or is it just a siren song? So over those nine games: 37 PA, he had 11 strikeouts, 1 walks, went 10 for 20 on balls in play, and popped three homers. So basically he had the one week all season where his homers made up for everything else (which is fine, that was always his path to being good and I suppose still is), and paired that with getting lucky to make his line look particularly inflated. And if we're going to keep talking about his mini-hot streaks we need to appreciate how rough he's been the rest of the time to put up that overall line. Immediately following that nine-game surge, he went 0 for 5 with four strikeouts, starting a 17=game stretch in which he's hit .204/.214/.278 with 23 K's and 1 BB. And it's not like he's getting rotten BABIP luck, it's .323 in that run. And on top of that, he's been pretty protected during that stretch--most of his starts now are coming against lefties and he's still not hitting. His previously incredible splits have really evened out, but in the worst way possible - instead of being useless against righties while mashing lefties, he's stopped hitting lefties as well. I... I really can't find any positive here. `That's like Jeff Mathis stuff, and he's doing it as a first baseman.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 13:59:01 GMT -5
A lot of the discussion has been about Dalbec’s general future — will he be a bust or not. But I wonder how many guys have gotten so much leash? Pedey had a rough start… but that was 89 ABs. JBJ struggled, but at least he was elite defensively. I guess, even if you are optimistic, it seems fair to wonder who benefits from running Dalbec out over and over at the big league level. Well, we're 358 PAs into his career and he's at a 94 wRC+. At a comparable stage Pedroia was at 103. JBJ was at 50 through his first two seasons (530 PAs).
Of course it's the trendline with Dalbec that's less promising. But even there he has a respectable precedent: Devers' first partial season, 2017: 240 PAs, 110 wRC+ Devers' first full season, 2018: 490 PAs, 90 wRC+ Dalbec's first partial season, 2020: 92 PAs, 152 rRC+ Dalbec's first full season, ongoing: 266 PAs, 74 wRC+ Devers actually had a worse xwOBA in 2018 than Dalbec does this year. Dalbec has much worse K and BB rates though. That's the most concerning thing, I think. ADD: Bogaerts through 2014: 644 PAs, 82 wRC+.
Really Dalbec's struggles aren't unusual and I think it's much too soon to give up on him. Whether you try to be patient through a playoff run, though, is another question. Even if they trade for a rental, though, in general I think I'm content to keep trying with Dalbec basically until Casas (or sure-to-be meteoric riser Niko Kavadas!) is knocking down the door.
Devers was 21 when he had the rough 2018. Dalbec is 26. And, like you said, the K rates aren't in the same stratosphere. The problem isn't that Dalbec has been bad, it's that he's bad in exactly the way people who were worried about him worried he'd be bad. The fear was that as MLB-quality pitchers made an adjustment they'd be able to neutralize enough of his power, which would mean that pitchers could be a little bit more fearless pounding the strike zone on him, meaning he wouldn't be able to put up an OBP close enough to .300 to stick in the lineup. So other players have struggled like Dalbec, but almost all of them offered either upside or defense that made keeping them in the lineup more sensible. This is playing out more like Middlebrooks and Chavis, where a player steps in and pops a bunch of homers, pitchers make an adjustment, put the power in check, and the player doesn't do enough other things well to make up for it.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 10:22:13 GMT -5
I mean, in the hypothetical where some team demands Kevin Plawecki as the main piece in a key trade, you trade Kevin Plawecki and then find a new backup catcher. But Plawecki is not the difference-maker in any trade for a player the Red Sox need, so it's kind of moot. And that's no disresepct to Plawecki, he's a decent enough backup.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 17, 2021 9:16:23 GMT -5
It looks like yesterday was the first game Jordan didn't start since 7/1. The FCL team only played once from the 11th to 14th (two scheduled off days and one rainout), so maybe it looks more sparse because of that.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 17, 2021 8:08:45 GMT -5
After watching the Padres v. Nationals highlights from July 16, maybe I don’t miss Don Orsillo after all. I'm calling the authorities on you.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 16, 2021 22:02:52 GMT -5
Was just coming in here to note that. Quite a run of Rule 5 picks the last couple years. Whitlock is obviously at the MLB level and amazing, but I can't remember a two-year stretch of minor league picks contributing like Espinal, Adames, Ort, and Reed. I believe Adames was a minor league free agent but I could be off on that Either way the point remains Yes, you are correct. I had gotten it in my head that he was taken with Espinal in the 2019 R5. I guess I probably swapped him with Espada in my brain at some point in the spring. Carry on!
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 16, 2021 21:54:51 GMT -5
Koss is en fuego. 3-5 today 25-53 in July if I’m doing my calculations right Chris Murphy with another quality start, but a couple more homers Scoreless inning for Adames in WorcesterWas just coming in here to note that. Quite a run of Rule 5 picks the last couple years. Whitlock is obviously at the MLB level and amazing, but I can't remember a two-year stretch of minor league picks contributing like Espinal, Adames, Ort, and Reed.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 16, 2021 15:06:36 GMT -5
Betts and Bogaerts were put at different positions to get them ready to contribute in the majors in short order. Similarly, if Mayer gets to where he's near a callup and Bogaerts is entrenched, they might move him. They weren't being exposed to other positions for the sake of learning positions and getting everyone playing time, the Red Sox were trying to get them to fill specific, immediate holes. The point isn't that Mayer will never play another position, it's that they're not just going to slide him around the field at, like, Salem.
Dalbec wasn't that kind of prospect. Big, big difference between trying to get versatility out of a 4/4.5 prospect than a Mayer type.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 16, 2021 15:02:54 GMT -5
Regarding Marcelo’s speed, the list of great defensive shortstops who weren’t very fast is a long one. Rey Ordoñez, Brendan Ryan, Walt Weiss, Alex Gonzales, early Carlos Guillen, Rey Sanchez, Josh Barlett, Iglesias, and that’s just off the top of my head. Hands and instincts are way more important in my opinion, and Mayer seems to have plenty of both. Andrelton Simmons!
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 15, 2021 22:14:21 GMT -5
He's done for the day: 2 IP, 3 K's (1 swinging, 2 looking) I've heard some really good things about this kid, don't be surprised if he moves quickly through the system. Eh, I just read his draft profile. Electric stuff but a lot of scouts think his delivery and slender frame give him a reliever profile. I'll pass.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 15, 2021 16:25:29 GMT -5
Ort's best chance of being on the 40-man is if he's added during the season. I don't see them passing on him all year and then necessitating him in the offseason. He and Schreiber are fair bets to stick if someone likes them, though.
I would be very, very surprised if Winckowski isn't added. It's a step below Downs/Bello/Jimenez, but it's like 90% likely instead of 98%.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 15, 2021 11:46:23 GMT -5
Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty? Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021) He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him. He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power. Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A). I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him. Short answer: He's a certainty to be added because he's far too talented to risk losing. It would not be smart for a team to draft him and undercut his development in doing so, but his upside is too high to risk it.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 15, 2021 10:10:36 GMT -5
Howlett was a big riser last month, went from the low 30s to the high 20s. He's always been young for his level and his 2019 was tough to gauge - he was terrible in the second half, but it was also his first full season and he was playing ahead of the rest of the HS guys in his class. Would've totally made sense if fatigue was a factor and there were adjustments to be made.
I've been comparatively high on him and his overall numbers are good this year, but the strikeouts are really becoming a significant problem. He K'd four times last night and now has 41 in 93 plate appearances over 21 games. Way too many.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 14, 2021 21:59:44 GMT -5
Christian Koss 4/4 with a BB. Up to .267/.339/.401 after a tough first couple months. .230/.301/.327 in 40 May/June games, .432/.500/.730 in 10 July games.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 14, 2021 8:15:43 GMT -5
You mean like; Franchy Cordero, Tyreque Reed Joe Davis? I prefer that the team in the future not have to try to teach someone like Franchy Cordero a new position in June. Not a great situation because of the need at the major league level, but "fringy guy learns a new position so he can stick" will be part of baseball forever.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 13, 2021 14:46:02 GMT -5
There seems to be a split in the DSL - some teams are playing nine-inning games, others are playing seven. I know they've gone even further this year to drop the pretense that the results of minor league games matter, but that's still kinda weird they're not uniform.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 12, 2021 21:20:47 GMT -5
Since the start of June (51 plate appearances), Santiago Espinal is hitting .457/.510/.565.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 12, 2021 21:01:12 GMT -5
Not to be missed in all of the draft, home run derby, DSL debuts, and Seabold rehabbing... but Wilkelman Gonzalez threw five perfect innings with nine strikeouts out of the bullpen.
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