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Post by James Dunne on Jul 2, 2021 21:26:49 GMT -5
I feel like people think Rocker had a bad season because every time he gave up a run there would be 10 people coming in here shouting that he was melting down. His season was the equivalent of gameday thread which would have 15 pages complaining about Marwin Gonzalez and how Pivetta looks like he's losing it and then you flip on the TV and the Sox are winning 4-2 in the seventh.
With one of Leiter, Davis, or Mayer likely to still be on the board, I don't think they should take Rocker, but, like if they were at #6? He'd probably be my guy.
Only one in the Top 7 or so who scares me is Jobe. High school pitchers are dangerous in general and he really whips his arm. The upside's obviously huge there but I don't think it's a sensible risk considering the other players available.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 14:40:13 GMT -5
The thing is, your number 4 starter only pitches once in a playoff series. He's essentially half a starter. Being one of the top 4 relievers and the guy who can go multiple innings and the guy who can get GDP's is more valuable than that.
Meanwhile, I often like to point out how relatively ordinary the 4th starters on most playoff clubs are. It's rare that a guy is substantially above league average rather average or a bit above. Pivetta is a very solid option as of right now. Compare Wakefield in '04, Wake and a rookie Lester in '07, Peavey in '13, Porcello in '18.
My reference point here will always be the 2003 Red Sox winning both John Burkett starts. I guess the important difference here is the consideration that you could schedule Whitlock for about 9-15 batters in Game 4 (whether or not he pitches first) which would leave him essentially at full strength for Games 1 and 7. Not saying the Red Sox should or would do so, but I think there's some sense in using a non-traditional fourth starter this way.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 12:15:49 GMT -5
It is very sensible to continue being patient with Whitlock and very hard to continue that restraint when watching him pitch.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 11:55:27 GMT -5
Sure, but it can be hard to separate them since Dustin Pedroia's on-field personality was "I will destroy everyone who thought I was too short" and then he did that.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 11:53:53 GMT -5
Through two innings, Liu has faced six batters and struck out four of them.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 11:45:48 GMT -5
(For the record, like jimoh I am a fan of Watson based on his superficial similarities to *Pedroia*.) He's like a foot taller than Pedroia though! (His swing is also more traditionally sweet, unlike Pedroia's which was mechanically excellent but definitely weird looking with the almost-hitchy uppercut follow-through.) Anyway, the bit about Lawlar having the lower ceiling is weird to me - his upside is, like, a capable (or better!) defensive shortstop who hits like .300/.400/.525. I feel like there's real risk though, that he ends up a 3B whose early-season strikeout problems were indicative of a larger issue and he put up gaudy numbers against younger competition and he has less power to grow into than we realize. I would not be upset with either at #4.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 11:23:58 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 11:17:51 GMT -5
Watson's swing is gorgeous, he's incredibly athletic, he's probably the fastest runner near the top of the draft, and he's more likely to stick at shortstop. He's also almost nine months younger. Lawlar seems like a good bet to stay at shortstop as well, with the added benefit that the power will let the bat play at third base with zero issue.
A problem I have with the Watson projections is the people who have decided to turn him into Mookie Betts because I guess there's some superficial physical similarities and people start to like prospects based on the comps they came up with in their heads. It's like that back-and-forth a few days ago where the guy compared Lawlar to Henry Davis and was lik "well if Lawlar compares to Witt and Davis compares to Bart then I want Lawlar" as if players are types. Watson might be the better prospect, but the people who like him because he gives them Mookie Betts memories are off the mark too.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2021 8:53:09 GMT -5
You’d really prefer Watson over Lawlar even with the heigh issue and most scouts and teams by almost all accounts grading Lawlar higher? There are legitimate reasons to like Lawlar better, but a quick glance at the banner at the top of this page shows me that simply being taller isn't one of them. Anyway, I don't think it's universal that Lawlar is ranked higher anymore anyway.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 28, 2021 12:04:53 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2021 22:28:00 GMT -5
I think the point of making him a utilityman is that he's 29 and not really a catcher anymore.
EDIT: He's been hitting great the last three weeks though, after an awful 3-for-29 start to the season. He went 6 for 12 with two walks, no strikeouts, and a homer in the series against Worcester.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2021 21:02:29 GMT -5
Old friend Blake Swihart beating up the WooSox out of the Rochester leadoff spot. 2 for 3 with a homer, two walks, four runs scored. He's basically a utilityman now, only five starts at catcher in 28 games.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 22, 2021 8:06:38 GMT -5
This one is taking a minute to get used to.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 20, 2021 20:56:47 GMT -5
Two straight opposite field as well! I guess I take back anything I said about him being a dead pull guy as well... June 20th (1 hit)Fly ball Home run to LF June 19th (2 hits)Ground ball single to CF Line Drive single to LF June 18th (3 hits)Line Drive Home Run to LF Fly ball single to LF Ground ball single to CF (He also lined out to LF in that game) June 17th (2 hits)Line drive Double to LF Line drive single to CF (Also flew out to Lf) Is he making adjustments and shying away from the newly acquired pull-happy tendencies? When I saw him last week he saw a couple guys with good velocity (Tylor Megill and Sean Reid-Foley), and after getting beat overswinging in his second AB he made an adjustment. Didn't produce a hit (reached on a shortstop error that his speed forced) but it was good to see the conscious approach.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 19, 2021 21:31:42 GMT -5
Howlett also still has just two plate appearances against pitchers who are younger than he is.
Seeing his eighth-inning homer tonight, it struck me that he seems to do a lot of his damage late. Upon review, entering tonight he was just .179/.267/.359 in the first three innings of a game in 45 plate appearances.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 19, 2021 14:02:11 GMT -5
Old players getting overrated, and young players getting underrated seems like a sticky bias that the Draft Industrial Complex hasn't taken care of yet, so that makes me scared of Lawler. I have no opinion on any of the high school hitters beyond that. I don't remember where I saw the analysis, but being old for the class in HS is a significant, and bad, predictor. And youth has some benefits (which is why I was ecstatic with Casas, who I still think is going to be an absolute monster). Combined with Lawlar's Ks... too many red flags for me. I'd be really happy if Lawlar was a Groome-type situation where he fell to the Sox with a pick in the early teens, but at #4 those warts are too unsightly. Edit: not the one I was thinking of but it makes some good points, particularly focusing on slope of the curve www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/The general consensus is that teams recognize this now and do a pretty good job adjusting for it. One specific example that sticks out to me was that Bobby Witt Jr. was old for his class and several twitter know-it-all were critical of the idea that he was a top prospect because of it and the analysts who had seen him were clear they recognized he was old for his class but also are basing evaluations on where he is in terms of age advancement and that he still graded out very well. I don't think Lawlar being a little old for his class is sneaking up on anyone.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 19, 2021 0:07:28 GMT -5
Duran is packing a lot of his production into his biggest games. He has 11 games without a hit, and now has four with three or more. 35 of his 74 total bases have come in his five best games - he's slugging 1.458 in those, .410 the rest of the time. For comparison's sake, Casas and Jimenez both have eight games without a hit. I don't know that it's anything meaningful. It's possible that it's small sample noise, it's possible he's inflating his numbers beating up on the worst of Triple-A pitching, and it's possible he's just one of those guys who isn't as consistent on a game to game basis but will dominate a game frequently enough that everyone's fine with it.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 18, 2021 11:57:05 GMT -5
I am now getting targeted ads for Coppertone. I wish I was making this up.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 18, 2021 10:43:54 GMT -5
I'm sure a discussion between Aroldis Chapman and Rob Drake about whether Chapman really needs sunscreen today will be civil and is just what baseball needs.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 18, 2021 8:38:09 GMT -5
I mean the thing with sunscreen and rosin is that there are legitimate reasons to wear sunscreen and you're allowed to use rosin and "you're only allowed to cheat in the daytime" feels like a worse compromise than "quit it with the pine tar and Gorilla glue and you can keep the Coppertone."
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 18, 2021 8:25:38 GMT -5
It would be Jackson Kowar's turn to go tonight, but he really struggled in his first two starts and Matheny said they might use him out of the bullpen. Considering how lights out he was at Omaha I don't think it makes sense to undercut him after facing 19 batters, but the Royals are gonna do their thing.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 18, 2021 8:04:03 GMT -5
I’ve been a loud critic of having Franchy on the MLB team, but in Worcester, perhaps his greatest improvement along with making regular contact has been his BB% - which lifetime is about 8%, but which he’s nearly doubled. along with cutting his Ks down significantly, this seems like the big exhale and refocus he’s needed. He’s not yet reached 100 PAs but I for one would not be opposed to bringing him back up ONLY IF Cora gave him regular ABs. Cora is not capable of giving Franchy regular at bats, because he already has Verdugo, Renfroe, and Hernández in the outfield, and he refuses to sit Hernández! Franchy’s tools give him a much higher ceiling than Hernández, but given Cora’s history to date this year, I honestly do not see Hernández on the pine in favor of Franchy unless Bloom trades Hernández at the deadline. Are the memories really this short? He gave Franchy 102 at-bats and people whined about every one of them. They whined that he was on the roster even when he wasn't playing. This was you! Prediction: when Hernandez come off the DL then Franchy visits Worchester (Rusney style). I do not think he will play well enough in AAA to be called up (non-tender candidate)? forum.soxprospects.com/post/456388/threadFine. Declare the Franchy experiment over and play Marwin in LF and Chavis and Arauz at 2B until Arroyo and Hernandez return. None of them can be worse the Cordero. forum.soxprospects.com/post/455971/thread
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 17, 2021 10:29:05 GMT -5
It's also not really a good use of OPS+, because of the overemphasis on slugging relative to OBP--an especially pressing concern for high-power, low-on-base players like Dalbec. Dalbec's overall OPS of .649 isn't terrible. But it features a .252 OBP, which is still 100% unplayable. That 112 OPS+ in medium leverage situations comes from a .254/.279/.492 that, in 61 plate appearances, includes 3 homers, 2 walks, 24 (!!!) strikeouts, and a .375 BABIP. That's not good! If you go with the shorthand that 10 points of OBP is worth 30 points of SLG then it's equivalent to a player with a .319 OBP and .372 SLG, even though it's a much higher OPS.
So when you separate out the high leverage, his 41 PA have him at .316/.366/.632 with 3 homers, 2 walks, and 14 strikeouts, and a .429 BABIP. That's clearly productive, but there's nothing in it that screams out that it's sustainable. Basically you're a BABIP regulation and one (1) home run away from him being bad again. If these trends were there over like 200 plate appearances, then I'd be willing to consider it. But this is really looking for a needle in a haystack of a player that has really struggled. And low leverage doesn't mean no impact. He's clearly hurting the team by being an automatic out in those early at-bats.
For what it's worth, in plate appearances coded as "late and close" he is 4 for 25 with 1 homer, 3 walks, and 13 strikeouts (.160/.250/.320). Again, nothing that indicates he has a clutchiness gene.
It's hard for me to say whether he has much developmental value overall, but he turns 26 next week, he has the best prospect in the system behind him, and there are several likely available veterans who would be upgrades. Like, Colin Moran would not cost a top-10 prospect and would be a huge improvement. Michael Chavis might well be an upgrade. I wouldn't fault the Red Sox if they want to see it through, but he's making the team worse in the short term.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 16, 2021 22:01:57 GMT -5
Yo did you really just take the guy with the coolest name on the team and call him "D-Hern?" Ughhhhh.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 16, 2021 20:42:45 GMT -5
Hickory's starter tonight, Cole Ragans, was a 1st-round pick back in 2016. Pitched well in 2017, but then missed three entire seasons with two Tommy John surgeries. Tonight was his seventh start, his ERA is down to 3.16 and he's got 41 strikeouts to only 9 walks in 31 1/3.
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