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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2021 14:35:17 GMT -5
What explains the mild anti-helium on Lawlar, by the way? Have estimations of him gone down or is it just that other guys are rising? 19% K rate in high school could be considered a weakness. The thing is, he had a slump early in the season when he struck out a bunch, which was pretty understandable considering the layoff, then a stretch of gradual improvement, and he finished with just one strikeout in his last 15 games. And he was walking a ton in that stretch and hitting great, so it wasn't like he suddenly got all overaggressive. Here's the game log: jesuitrangers.org/sports/baseball/roster/jordan-lawlar/6318
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2021 10:18:22 GMT -5
What explains the mild anti-helium on Lawlar, by the way? Have estimations of him gone down or is it just that other guys are rising? Given that BA still has him at #1, I really wonder if it's just more reports and rankings being released by people who didn't love him as much in the first place?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2021 10:15:26 GMT -5
2) Zunino has had a 15 fWAR career so far, which is already well above the median outcome for a #4 pick. In fact the only #4 picks that have had better careers than Zunino since 1990 are Ryan Zimmerman (2005 pick) and Kerry Wood (1995). Gausman (2012) and maaaybe Bundy (2011) have been comparable to Zunino. Not sure if you missed him or left him off intentionally, but Gavin Floyd should also be in this group. It's also worth noting that fangraphs and B-Ref do diverge pretty notably on Zunino, particularly the defense. But I think that's illustrative too - it really just slides him with that next group down alongside Jeffrey Hammonds, Dmitri Young, Billy Koch, Kyle Schwarber. And again, it's interesting to note that there aren't really "types" that predict success here. The good picks don't really resemble each other. The best #4 picks of all time are Barry Larkin drafted a shortstop, Kevin Brown drafted as a pitcher, and Dave Winfield who was taken as a pitcher as well as a football and basketball player. www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0Focusing on types or fit or whatever rather than just trying to find the best player doesn't make any sense.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2021 14:04:57 GMT -5
Why would he want to force his way to the Sox other than them offering him the most $? It’s not like our rep for developing pitchers is stellar, although in comparison to Pittsburg, Texas, or Detroit maybe it looks better? Maybe he likes Boston? Maybe he rhinks Boston gives him the best chance to win? Maybe it's a ruse to make sure he gets full slot? I dunno, even if it's true it's less crazy than Eli Manning not being willing to go to San Diego.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 11, 2021 21:36:04 GMT -5
Worcester down 2-1 in the 8th with 2 outs. Marcus Wilson said, "I'll hit a 2-bagger." Franchy works his 2nd walk of the game, then Chief Chavis doubles them both in for a 3-2 lead. All off old friend Steve Nogosek. 3-2 Worcester heading into the bottom of the 8th. WooSox getting outhit 9 to 4 Wilson's double looks like it left the park. I will put together a detailed report, but here's the ten-cent recap: Cordero and Chavis looked good, Gonsalves pitched much worse than his stat line, Ort will pitch in the majors, Downs had a very rough game.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 11, 2021 21:30:16 GMT -5
By top 10, he means top 10 in all of baseball.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 11, 2021 14:20:36 GMT -5
Just here to show some love for Rocker's start without getting into a draft debate. Guy has had a hell of a college career. Final home start (unless something unforeseen happens and he ends up back at school): 7 2/3, 3 hits, 0 runs, 3 BB, 11 K
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 9, 2021 22:01:12 GMT -5
Portland is 11-3 against New Hampshire and 9-9 against the rest of the league.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2021 13:52:12 GMT -5
That's crazy. He hasn't started since 2017 when he was at High-A Winston-Salem. So basically they're running a bullpen game.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2021 10:26:53 GMT -5
It is wild that Kopech has not graduated yet and is still in the Top 15. I feel like there aren't a lot of situations where a guy is ranked that highly seven years after being drafted. There are already three players in that draft with 20+ career bWAR.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2021 8:34:58 GMT -5
Tier 1: Josh Taylor
Tier 2: 1990 Dennis Eckersley 2003 Mariano Rivera Chris Sale against Manny Machado with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in the deciding game of the World Series
Tier 3: Matt Barnes
Etc
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2021 8:17:47 GMT -5
There are several players I'd move on from before Arauz. He's already an MLB-quality backup infielder, he's 22, and he's on his first option year.
Chavis still may have some trade value (I think?) but he's starting to strike me as a change-of-scene possibility. As a flawed right-handed hitting first baseman who has pop but swings and misses too much, he's kind of redundant with Dalbec. Like, even if Dalbec settles in as a platoon/defensive replacement type, where does that leave Chavis? I just don't see how he complements the current roster. and I don't see how he's improving. I still think his best path is to get passable playing second base, but you're not going to play him ahead of Downs at Worcester.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 6, 2021 14:57:34 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 5, 2021 20:47:10 GMT -5
Agreed, Leiter giving up a solo homer to one of the best Freshmen in the country on a night where he went 6 3 1 1 2 11, the takeaway is not that he's having an issue with the longball. Pitch was 95 and while Leiter got too much of the plate that's more good hitting than bad pitching.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 4, 2021 21:37:20 GMT -5
While it's true that not all of Yorke's hits have been scorchers, it's part of an encouraging trend:
First 11 games: .156/.208/.178, 48 PA, 17 K, 3 BB Last 14 games (through tonight): .327/.419/.423, 62 PA, 5 K, 9 BB
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 3, 2021 22:28:30 GMT -5
Very scary situation tonight as Durham pitcher Tyler Zombro took a line drive off the head. The game was suspended and he was taken to Duke hospital, where he is apparently in stable condition per the team's release:
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 3, 2021 17:42:11 GMT -5
Harrisburg starter is Ryan Tapani, son of longtime Twins/Cubs pitcher Kevin Tapani. It's his first start of the year, so not sure whether it's a bullpen game or if he's sliding into a starting role.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2021 20:56:20 GMT -5
Glad to know they seem to be Leiter > Rocker. Interesting to hear that Rocker's signability might be a concern. I think what he's saying is that signability might become a concern if he falls past #8. The bonus slots fall pretty rapidly in the top 10.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2021 20:54:07 GMT -5
Salem Red Sox have taken the lead in the 10th inning on a ground out, ground out, wild pitch.
Have I mentioned that the extra inning rule is dumb? How is deciding a winner without ever getting a man on base better than a tie? I hate it so much.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2021 12:42:32 GMT -5
I think the proper analogy here is one pretty okay car was traded for one car that looks like it might be pretty good in the future, one currently bad car that might someday not be bad but probably will continue to be bad, and three other cars who we don't know what cars they are yet.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2021 11:50:15 GMT -5
Boston dealt Almonte to the Diamondbacks for Brad Ziegler back in 2016. He raised his prospect status some with Arizona and then I believe had a shoulder injury.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 2, 2021 6:36:13 GMT -5
Passing on a pitcher might be the right choice. Using the Trey Ball pick eight years ago or the Bryan Price pick 14 years ago to justify passing on a pitcher is really foolish.
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Post by James Dunne on May 31, 2021 18:44:41 GMT -5
Two questions..why did Raffaela take such a nosedive when he is performing quite well and do you think that Brannen is finally starting to figure things out or is it just a fluke he is starting to hit a little bit. That's actually a typo. Rafaela rose from 43 to 39. Thanks for the catch! Brannen is 8 for 51 with 26 strikeouts. This was the first week that he had more than one hit. I will have to see a lot more from him.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2021 22:33:31 GMT -5
It's not clear if this is fluky or if the Royals have fixed something or if Benintendi is just healthy again, but he's been basically himself again now for a month.
First 16 games: 67 PA, .180/.254/.230 25.4% K rate Last 31 games (through 5/29): 121 PA, .339/.397/.468 15.7% K rate
It's the strikeout rate that I feel is the most important development, that's right back in line with his 2017-18 self. Obviously the Iso is still down from that peak, but anyone with those kinds of contact rates at a time when strikeouts are so prevalent is obviously extremely valuable.
It doesn't make sense to analyze the trade because we still don't know who Boston is getting back, but I think we're getting further away from "it was smart to trade Benintendi because he's just not that good anymore."
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2021 19:41:11 GMT -5
Tristan Casas page appears not to be loading. I think I've fixed this. Do you mind reloading and just making sure it's working on your end?
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