SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by brendan98 on Jan 8, 2024 11:04:51 GMT -5
A few thoughts on the Sox pitching: - I like the idea of swapping the reliability of Giolito over the upside of Sale, but believe the Sox should replace that upside. - I believe in Pivetta as a starter, I think the 2nd half transformation was real and I think he can lead the staff. - I am hopeful Bello will take the next step in his 2nd full season. - I think the Sox need another reliable starter, Imanaga is interesting, but the combination of his risk (performance wise) and the rumored length and amount of contract is worrisome.- On the trade front, I dont want the Sox to trade Mayer, Anthony or Teel. I doubt the Sox can get Luzardo without one of those 3. Same goes for Cease, with less years of control. It doesn’t sound like the Mariners pitchers are available but they would be a great fit if that changed. - I’d say someone is going to sign Bauer, if he pitches well and has learned from his past it could be an amazing signing, but I do understand the distaste for him. - I’d be in favor of resigning Paxton, I think he faded down the stretch, but has the kind of upside that could replace what we traded away in Sale, and should be able to sustain a little better with a normal offseason to prepare, but because of his injury history I’d honestly prefer him in addition to a more reliable starter. - I think Snell and Montgomery are going to get ridiculous contracts but if not the Sox should explore. - I think Crawford is a capable starter, but also think he would be the best option at closer, if Jansen is traded. He reminds me of Foulke. - I think Whitlock and Houck are both at their best as relievers. - I don’t want to give Jansen away as salary relief, but if the Sox can get value in return and the savings are used to add starting pitching I’d be fine with it. With regards to the lineup, I’m relieved the Sox didn’t sign Hernandez, Soler is not my preference but if he signs a reasonable contract it might be worth it. I think the best addition would be re-signing Turner or signing Hoskins. I agree with most of this. Additional point: rotation depth is not going to better in 2025, it's going to be worse! If you see Houck, Whitlock and Crawford (+ AAA crop) as pure relievers, then there is ONLY BELLO left as a guaranteed starter atm. This is an overlooked issue IMO. We NEED at least one starter with 4 or 5 years of control or else we have the same problem next year. We are out of the running on Snell and Montgomery IMO, so who is left. Is Imanaga a safe bet? No. But at some point you just have to pick one hill to die on! They have scouted him for a long time, I am optimistic that they know what his is and what he isn't. In short: I don't see a 5 years contract as a negative with Imanaga. At some point you just have to go with your evaluation and make the move. I can honestly say, I'd like to see Imanaga on a 4 year deal maybe 5, and Paxton on a 1 year deal with an option based on starts or innings. I think that you bring up a good point, if they have done all their homework on Imanaga, then I'd say bite the bullet and sign him.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Jan 8, 2024 10:59:13 GMT -5
I've liked the idea of Rhys Hoskins in the DH spot all offseason. He's pretty terrible at 1B, so it would be DH only. Anyone have a strong feeling on the merits of Hoskins vs. Soler if we're only talking the DH role? Hoskins pros: - Likely comes on a shorter / cheaper deal - backup 1B - more consistently been a very good hitter - one year younger Soler pros: - Coming off very good season - Not coming off an injury - Models (at least Steamer have not checked ZiPS) project him slightly better offensively - emergency OF I guess Not sure which one fits Fenway better I'll throw in one more thing about Hoskins, and it won't matter even a little bit if he doesn't perform on the field, but he is a great player in the clubhouse, a real leader.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Jan 8, 2024 6:08:10 GMT -5
A few thoughts on the Sox pitching:
- I like the idea of swapping the reliability of Giolito over the upside of Sale, but believe the Sox should replace that upside. - I believe in Pivetta as a starter, I think the 2nd half transformation was real and I think he can lead the staff. - I am hopeful Bello will take the next step in his 2nd full season. - I think the Sox need another reliable starter, Imanaga is interesting, but the combination of his risk (performance wise) and the rumored length and amount of contract is worrisome. - On the trade front, I dont want the Sox to trade Mayer, Anthony or Teel. I doubt the Sox can get Luzardo without one of those 3. Same goes for Cease, with less years of control. It doesn’t sound like the Mariners pitchers are available but they would be a great fit if that changed. - I’d say someone is going to sign Bauer, if he pitches well and has learned from his past it could be an amazing signing, but I do understand the distaste for him. - I’d be in favor of resigning Paxton, I think he faded down the stretch, but has the kind of upside that could replace what we traded away in Sale, and should be able to sustain a little better with a normal offseason to prepare, but because of his injury history I’d honestly prefer him in addition to a more reliable starter. - I think Snell and Montgomery are going to get ridiculous contracts but if not the Sox should explore. - I think Crawford is a capable starter, but also think he would be the best option at closer, if Jansen is traded. He reminds me of Foulke. - I think Whitlock and Houck are both at their best as relievers. - I don’t want to give Jansen away as salary relief, but if the Sox can get value in return and the savings are used to add starting pitching I’d be fine with it.
With regards to the lineup, I’m relieved the Sox didn’t sign Hernandez, Soler is not my preference but if he signs a reasonable contract it might be worth it. I think the best addition would be re-signing Turner or signing Hoskins.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Jan 4, 2024 14:30:36 GMT -5
Bader would have been the perfect guy to platoon with Duran/Abreu in CF/RF Isn't that Refsnyder's role? Bader was better against LHP last year, but Refsnyder was still really good, and in 2022 Refsnyder was much better than Bader. Also $10M, no thanks.
|
|
|
Eovaldi
Dec 29, 2023 21:22:31 GMT -5
Post by brendan98 on Dec 29, 2023 21:22:31 GMT -5
So Texas is supposedly looking for help at closer, but don't seem to want to pay what it would cost for Hader. I'd love to see the Sox spend some of the money they were supposedly going to give to Yamamoto, sign Hader (maybe it costs close to $20M a year for 5 to 6 years), then package Kenley and one of Crawford, Houck, Whitlock or Pivetta for Eovaldi. The Rangers would get the back end help they need without taking significant payroll and add a young arm to an aging staff, and the Sox would upgrade the closer spot with the best in the game, and a guy who they know can pitch in the front of the rotation. Cant imagine Texss would trade away their best starter that helped them win the series. I'd think they want to try to win again this year and few have the post season resume Eovaldi has. That is reasonable, just thinking they have so much their payroll tied up in 3 starters that they can't afford a closer, and Eovaldi's deal potentially up after this season.
|
|
|
Eovaldi
Dec 29, 2023 20:14:26 GMT -5
Post by brendan98 on Dec 29, 2023 20:14:26 GMT -5
So Texas is supposedly looking for help at closer, but don't seem to want to pay what it would cost for Hader.
I'd love to see the Sox spend some of the money they were supposedly going to give to Yamamoto, sign Hader (maybe it costs close to $20M a year for 5 to 6 years), then package Kenley and one of Crawford, Houck, Whitlock or Pivetta for Eovaldi. The Rangers would get the back end help they need without taking significant payroll and add a young arm to an aging staff, and the Sox would upgrade the closer spot with the best in the game, and a guy who they know can pitch in the front of the rotation.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 27, 2023 20:56:50 GMT -5
Not a prediction, but rather what I'd like to see at this point:
Starters C - Wong RH 1B - Casas LH 2B - Drury RH TRADE SS - Story RH 3B - Devers LH DH - Turner or Hoskins RH/RH Free Agent LF - Yoshida LH CF - Duran LH RF - Abreu LH OF - O'Neill RH
I'm not going to waste time speculating what Drury would cost in a trade, but I'd imagine a solid prospect or two. I'd hope Turner or Hoskins can be had on 1 or 2 year deals, Turner is a little better fit as he can fill in at 3B and 1B, but I think I prefer Hoskins bat by a little so this one is a toss up for me. With these RHH's and O'Neil, the lineup is more balanced. The defense is also better, with Yoshida and Devers as the weakest links, but I think Devers will be a little better with Story at SS for the whole year, and if O'Neill shows he can produce against RHP I think you can DH Yoshida 20 - 30 games.
Bench OF - Refsnyder RH IF - Reyes RH C - McGuire LH
Refsnyder should bat far less against RHP this year, start him against a LH starter for one of the LHH outfielders, and pinch hit for him when RH reliever comes in the game. Bring him off the bench to hit a lefty reliever in games he doesn't start. I'd love to see Rafaela force his way into Reyes spot, but Reyes is fine for his role.
Rotation SP - Sale LH SP - Bello RH SP - Paxton LH Free Agent SP - Pivetta RH SP - Crawford RH SP - ?
I really like this group if you could tell me they would all make 30 starts, but Paxton and Sale are certain to miss time, so we need another starter. I don't know who that guy is, Montgomery seems like the perfect fit but I think he is going to get a stupid contract and I don't want to be the team that gives it to him, that goes double for Snell. Maybe Imanaga, but the bidding there could get ridiculous as well. There are more interesting names (Giolito, Stroman...) but they all come with questions, can Breslow find one of the guys who bounces back or steps up this year? Does he need to trade for a starter, and can it be done without putting to big a dent into the farm that Bloom built.
Bullpen P - Houck RH P - Whitlock RH P - Mata RH P - Bernandino LH P - Slaten RH P - Schreiber RH P - Martin RH C - Jansen RH
This unit could be a real strength, another LH reliever may be needed, but it is a potentially dominant group with real depth in AAA.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 26, 2023 22:32:33 GMT -5
I'd like to remind everyone, that the teams that win the offseason don't always win the World Series, and the teams that are favorites on paper rarely do either.
The Red Sox don't need the shiniest most expensive players, they need the right players. I, like most other Red Sox fans that will be honest about it, was underwhelmed by the free agents added prior to the 2013 season, Victorino, Napoli, Drew, Ross and Koji among others were not big splash free agents but they were the right players for the team. Ironically, Breslow was a member of that team, and now it is his job to find the right players for this team.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 25, 2023 15:39:35 GMT -5
I'd rather the Sox pass on Hernandez if it requires a multi-year deal, and prefer they go with a shorter deal with Turner or Hoskins if possible.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 22, 2023 13:48:52 GMT -5
If Snell and Montgomery are signable on a deal that isn't going to handcuff the Sox with $25M to $30M well into the next decade I like both of them, but I think they are both going to get ridiculous deals in terms of both $ and years, and I'd prefer the Sox stay away from that.
If Burnes or Luzardo are available via trade without giving up one of our top 3 prospects I'd like to see the Sox explore that.
If neither of those scenarios are reasonable , I'd be ok with signing Paxton and Montas to deals of 3 years or less. I think Paxton is going to be excellent this year if he stays healthy and I expect Montas to bounce back as well.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 20, 2023 21:27:58 GMT -5
With regards to Bauer, wasn't he found innocent? I do not know details, so please don't attack me on this one. Last I heard, the alleged victim was exposed as a fraud and from what I remember made it all up. Am I wrong about that? Is there another reason not to consider Bauer? He admitted some really sick crap, regardless of his partner's willingness. Gotcha! I don’t know a whole lot of details regarding the case.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 20, 2023 21:04:20 GMT -5
With regards to Bauer, wasn't he found innocent? I do not know details, so please don't attack me on this one. Last I heard, the alleged victim was exposed as a fraud and from what I remember made it all up. Am I wrong about that? Is there another reason not to consider Bauer?
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 20, 2023 12:03:46 GMT -5
I truly believe the Sox and Breslow are all in with regards to Yamamoto, and that they will be aggressive trying to sign him. Unfortunately, they don't get to make the decision when and where he signs. We don't know what is in YY's head, he may already have decided where he is going and is now just hanging out hoping the bidding keeps driving the price up, or maybe he has already let the team he is going to sign with know (does seem unlikely as it probably would've leaked), maybe he is waiting for the last minute to go with the highest bidder and squeeze out every dollar, or maybe he is weighing his options right now before making a decision. Nobody knows what is going on, and all of the speculation is just that, purely speculation. I'm personally not going to put any more energy into the speculation, and will just impatiently wait for the announcement and hope that he is coming to Boston. Regardless, I'm not going to be upset with Breslow/Ownership unless something factual comes out that they didn't make a serious offer. We will see what happens soon enough, if they sign him lot of people (Rosenthal #1) are not going to look so good regarding there comments towards the Sox management, if he signs elsewhere I'm quite sure the vitriol will get even worse. I'm not on board with the sentiment that this ownership group is not dedicated to winning, the most Championships of any team in baseball since they bought the team with 4 which is 4 more than they had won in over 100 years gives them plenty of benefit of the doubt with me. I do think they have made some mistakes, but have also tried to pivot and correct them consistently throughout their time owning the team. Regardless, I along with most Sox fans expect a far better product on the field in 2024 with or without Yamamoto, signing him would be a great move towards that goal, but there are other ways to get there.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 19, 2023 21:17:55 GMT -5
The negativity on here is getting bad. Feels like I'm on twitter.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 16, 2023 15:38:56 GMT -5
I realize the YY, at this point, is still just a hope, but if the Sox were to add Yamamoto and bring back Turner and do nothing further this offseason, I would personally be extremely happy with the job Breslow did, and super excited about the 2024 Red Sox.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 10, 2023 13:51:23 GMT -5
Some people in the thread have brought up comparisons to Duvall but given the injury history I would not be surprised if he ends up taking Refsnyder's spot. Good platoon splits and defensively capable of covering all three spots. Refsnyder was barely getting used at the end of last year so he may be out of favor. O'Neill would be used more than Refsnyder but I don't think he is likely to get a full starter's workload. And given his injury history he is unlikely to to be available for a full workload anyway. There is likely one more right handed bat coming. Refsnider had a 148 wRC+ vs LHP over the last two years. There’s a lot of value to a platoon player like that, though he was so bad last year vs RHP (31 wRC+) that they may decide they can’t carry him. O’Neill OTOH had a 123 wRC+ vs LHP over the past two years, though he was incredible against them in 2021 (169 wRC+). So there’s upside for O’Neill to be nearly as good as Refsnider vs LHP and less of a black hole vs RHP. If you keep Rafaela around as a super utility guy Cora would have the flexibility to start 3 RHH outfielders against a LH starter. I like that.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 10, 2023 13:47:09 GMT -5
If ever there was a time to spend, it's here. 25 years old. No draft pick penalty. I know recent history is against it, but further back shows they are willing to spend. Why not here? Ownership spent big money on the most important guy last year (Devers), no reason why they can’t this year as well, and I honestly believe that Yamamoto is the guy they identified early on to add. The problem is, the projected contract has quite possibly doubled, hopefully they are still in and are about to offer a lot more than they had originally planned. I am skeptical that this ownership group will be the one that makes the big overpay necessary to sign Yamamoto, but I guess they did (on a smaller scale) last year with Yoshida, so I am still hopeful.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 9, 2023 21:47:08 GMT -5
I think the Sox should sign Justin Turner if they can get him to come back for 1 year, MLB trade rumors predicts him to get 1/16. I didn't think he'd fit the roster, due to wanting Yoshida to DH more, but with the O'Neil trade, and his ability to play CF, I think JT is actually a great fit. They could mix and match the combo of Yoshida, Duran, O'Neil, Abreau and JT for the 3 OF slots and DH. Just using round numbers that would give each of the 5 players around 130 games each spread through the 4 spots. Throw in JT spelling Casas and Raffy for about 12 games each and that would give the 5 guys about 135 starts, roughly 1 day off each per week. That actually makes sense IMO with JT's age, O'Neil's injury history and Yoshida showing he needs rest etc. AC would be able to play the matchups and keep everyone fresh. In this scenario Yoshida probably plays LF in 80 to 85 games with another 50 at DH. Anyone think this could work? Perhaps I am reading this wrong, but if this is suggesting that Justin Turner (JT) starts playing the OF at 39yo then I really don't think that will work. I think I would prefer Yoshida playing more games there given that JT has played in the OF just once in his career.....and what happens to Duran in this scenario? No, pretty sure he is saying 5 guys for 4 spots , with Turner mostly a DH but occasionally giving Casas or Devers a day off.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 8, 2023 21:32:49 GMT -5
Rafaela's defense in the MI is not as good as his defense in CF so I'm not sure he'd really fit the bill as a defense first option to play 2nd. I don't think he'd bring the most value as an everyday 2nd baseman. I'd prefer them make a trade for their 2nd baseman than to roll with rafaela out of the gate. Scouting Reports say plus defender at SS, grew up playing 2B, I guarantee he could be an excellent defensive 2B next year if need be, likely better than almost anyone they could trade for. Of course they could also play him at SS and Story at 2B, which would likely be an excellent defensive alignment as well.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 8, 2023 21:16:00 GMT -5
Even though O'Neill had the drop off from his breakout 2021 season, the last 2 years he's had a .788 OPS and a .793 OPS vs LHP. Could be a platoon OF if he doesn't bounce back vs RHP.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 8, 2023 20:59:58 GMT -5
Keep hearing that the Sox are willing to sacrifice offense at second base if they get a plus defender that will help the pitching staff at the position. Heard more rumors today that they are kicking the tires on Whit Merrifield, and I just can't help thinking that I'd much rather see them open the season with Rafaela as the primary 2B, with Reyes to back him up and Valdez in reserve. Much like Casas last year, give Rafaela a month of starts next year and see if you feel like he is adjusting at the MLB level or if he needs a little more time in AAA. I think he is naturally gifted enough defensively that spring training should be more than enough to prepare him to play a very good defensive 2B by the time the season starts. Offensively, I wouldn't expect a high OBP, but the kid had 62 extra base hits in 136 games between AA/AAA/BOS, so he could provide some pop at the bottom of the order, and wreak some havoc on the bases.
Since they are prioritizing defense over offense at the position, and they have some premium middle infield prospects that are already MLB ready, or right down the road, I think it would be foolish to use any significant amount of salary cap on a stop gap second baseman. Yorke will start the year at AAA, likely Meidroth too, both of those guys could be options by summer, and if Mayer can get healthy I could see him making up for some of the time he lost last year, moving quickly and putting himself in the MLB picture later in the year.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 6, 2023 15:21:46 GMT -5
Thank God nobody(DD) took Noah Song, I don't think I could deal with that again this year! TIC
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 6, 2023 1:00:24 GMT -5
I am a Verdugo fan, but I am excited to see Abreu as the Sox everyday RF. Sure Verdugo has more certainty, but someone else described him earlier in this post as average and I agree he is exactly that. Maybe Abreu doesn’t pan out, but I’d rather see what happens next year with him in RF than what we’d most likely get from Verdugo, especially for around $9M less.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Nov 27, 2023 15:26:39 GMT -5
FYI, with that kind of slash line, you're talking Bryce Harper numbers, or maybe Soto with a bit less OBP. I get it, however I was originally going to use his post All-Star stats, but thought they might be a little too aggressive .317/.417/.617
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Nov 27, 2023 14:37:23 GMT -5
Casas' average was .133 at the end of April, from that point on in 354 AB's he hit .291, I am not a believer in "but if you take away this slump he was actually" however with regards to Casas' season last year you can make the case that he figured some things out (got a little more aggressive in the zone) and that while still refining his approach over the rest of the season he hit .291 which is in my opinion/hope more indicative of what he is offensively than the .263 BA that he finished the season at:
Based upon the final 5 months of 2023, I would predict a +/- 10 range on his year next year and estimate: Batting Avg .280 - .300 On Base % .380 - .400 Slugging .500 - .520
The median for those numbers would be a .900 OPS compared to .857 in 2023. 30+ home runs seems completely doable, and hopefully the defense improves as well.
|
|
|