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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 15, 2024 20:41:00 GMT -5
Fangraphs (Longerhagen and Taruken) seem to be very low on Teel's Fielding (40/50) and arm (50) compared to other publications. I've seen the strange throwing motion, but as it hasn't really hindered him so far and he's shown plus-level pop-times, I figure that's more of an aesthetic grade. I haven't heard of the issues they describe with his mechanics behind the plate and receiving - does anyone who has seen him in person have further insight? blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 6, 2024 16:17:12 GMT -5
So this is good provided they use the money on a solid SP like Montgomery. Seems like only a matter of time until Jansen is moved. He was solid. It depends on what the return is for Duran, but if they feel like he's a sell high and they get some arms, it might be a fit. Could also be that after they trade Duran for a starter they pivot to sign Bellinger. As much concern as there is over Bellinger, at the age of 28 he's the best long-term play IF he can replicate last year's performance. He would be a nice long-term fit in RF once/if Rafaela displaces him in center.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 5, 2024 20:39:04 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu was 19th in top 'ZiPS Gainers' among hitters for 2024 (vs 2023 projections) - he went from 1.8 fWAR to 6.6 fWAR (for 2024-2027). Don't look up who was 20th. Other notables:- Kiké dropped from 6.9 to 1.1 (15th largest drop among hitters) - Alex Binelas dropped from 7 to 1.4 (17th largest drop among hitters) - Adalberto Mondesi dropped from 7.2 to 2.2 (26th largest drop among hitters) - Thad Ward dropped from 3.3 to 0 (30th largest drop among pitchers) blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-2027-movers-and-shakers/
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 5, 2024 19:39:37 GMT -5
I'm guessing they will, but given that there are still free agents looking for multi-year deals, the time hasn't come yet. Nothing wrong with two year deals, could increase the players value and guys have been signing on one and two year deals for a long time now. The problem with 2 year deals is that if the player gets hurt or struggles badly, the Red Sox will be stuck with his salary next season. The payoff could be larger, but the risk is much greater if the plan is to deal him at the deadline. There were 158 players last season with a positive fWAR and currently 53 of those players remain unsigned - 20 of them from the top 50. It feels weird because it's so late in the offseason, but the bargain phase of free agency probably hasn't hit yet. As we get closer to the season, the pressure is going to shift more and more from the teams to the players - some of these guys are going to have to settle for single year bargain contracts. As much as some like to applaud the players/agents for holding out for bigger deals, someone always gets the short end. This year, it looks like it will be many someones.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 3, 2024 21:41:13 GMT -5
The first luxury tax threshold is not their entire paycheck, and they aren't living paycheck to paycheck. This 100%, up to the tax line and they make $75 million or likely more in profit #3 in MLB and better than the two teams above them revenue wise. Spending well below it just shows they want more profit, not spending their whole paycheck type crap. Even if you say we're rebuilding, then sign guys to trade at deadline. I'm guessing they will, but given that there are still free agents looking for multi-year deals, the time hasn't come yet.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 1, 2024 18:03:05 GMT -5
Thank you for the reply. I do use ADblockPlus. "It sounds like you're describing the pop-up add but without the add." I don't understand what you mean. "the add size doesn't adjust with the window, so if you're using a smaller window, that could explain the size ..." I don't understand this either. Maybe you could explain in a different way so my thickness might be pierced? Note: I do increase page size to either 125% or 150% if this is related to your reply. You're seeing the add banner, but not the add, because you have the add blocked - that's why it's a blank white banner (although half of it is semi-transparent for me - this also scales with the zoom and window size). Your increased page size is the reason it's so large. If you reduce the page size OR stretch your window so it's taller, it will become less offensive. I barely notice it at 100% page size with a window that uses ~80% of my 27" 1080 monitor. If you can get by at 110%, that may be the sweet spot. You can't completely close the add. If you hit the down arrow on the left side of it (just like the rest of us who see the add) it pops right back up when you load a new page. This is intentional to receive the greatest amount of visibility.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 1, 2024 15:38:51 GMT -5
Hello. For a couple months now --sporadically before but consistently now -- and only on this site, whenever I open a page an opaque "cover page" covering about 20% of the (lower) screen opens, with a DOWN feature on the left, that I have to manually hit to make it go away. This is very annoying. Can anyone tell me how to eliminate this issue? I use Chrome on Windows 11 & do not ever have this issue elsewhere. Are you using a pop-up blocker? It sounds like you're describing the pop-up add but without the add. Mine is never 20%, but the add size doesn't adjust with the window, so if you're using a smaller window, that could explain the size.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 31, 2024 21:01:47 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 26, 2024 15:57:39 GMT -5
Does anyone remember the rule on what determines whether a player option is “likely to be accepted”? For instance could a team offer Montgomery a 4/80 deal where he gets 30m/year in each of the first two years and 10 in the latter two, with an opt out after a year two and have it count as 20m AAV? Or because the salary drops so much does it become “likely to be declined” and therefore the AAV is $30m for the first two years? My understanding is the latter, just want to make sure I’m remembering properly. They changed this a few years back. If he opts out then the AAV difference is applied to the pursuing year. In this case, it would be 20mil AAV for years 1-3 despite not being on the team in year 3. 'Actual Club Payroll is the term the CBA uses for 'AAV'. www.mlbplayers.com/_files/ugd/4d23dc_d6dfc2344d2042de973e37de62484da5.pdf
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 21, 2024 18:53:34 GMT -5
2023 Budget $225M 2024 Budget said to be less than 2023 Please quit talking about Montgomery and Snell....pipedream. Whitlock should be given another chance to start. My concern #1 is his health. If he breaks down then it's to the bullpen. The poster that suggested Houck and Whitlock work their arm in AAA to start. Are you nuts? Breslow has spoken. It's Bello, Giolito, Kutter, Pivetta and Houck/Crawford. Move on. The remark taken from Kennedy was that the payroll 'would probably be lower' than in 2023. It's an important distinction as the budget lowering would imply the team isn't willing to spend while the payroll could be either Breslow's decision and/or the result of targeted players not wanting to play for the Red Sox. That said, given the payroll is currently ~171mil and the AAV is ~190mil there's still wiggle room to add a Montgomery or Snell while still having a lower year-end payroll (or CBT payroll) than in 2023. There's also the option of moving another contract (like Jensen) in order to add more salary. Not claiming this will happen, but it's perfectly reasonable for fans to continue to yearn for either of those guys until they've signed. It's also possible the Red Sox have offers on the table for one, or both, of those guys right now but are unwilling to raise their offer(s). Kennedy's remark could be more than lowering fan expectations, but part of a negotiating tactic with Boras who is attempting to pressure teams into raising their offers. Can't know for sure given how quiet this front office has been with leaked information.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 20, 2024 21:29:03 GMT -5
Below are the top SWORD pitchers by pitch from 2023: Fastball: Michael Kopech (15) Sinker: Jordan Montgomery (9) Cutter: Framber Valdez (14) Slider: Spencer Strider (45) Sweeper: Sonny Gray (23) Slurve: Jose Berrios (23) Curveball: Blake Snell (28) Knuckle Curve: Zac Gallen (29) Changeup: Trevor Richards (22) Splitter: Kevin Gausman (14) Forkball: Kodai Senga (17) www.mlb.com/news/statcast-s-swords-leader-for-every-pitch-type-in-2023
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 19, 2024 16:48:18 GMT -5
BA published minor league exit velocities for their top 100 prospects. Always hard to put these types of data into context, but amongst the top 100 prospects the Sox quartet have middling to poor exit velocities. Ramon Anthony - 89.7 (27th) Cedanne Rafela - 89.1 (32nd) Marcelo Mayer - 88.9 (33rd) Kyle Teel - 82.9 (67th out of 68) I had assumed Anthony would be higher, but that's probably pretty good for his age anyway. Teel's ability to impact the ball will be important to watch as he moves into his first full season. A low 80s exit velocity will be a pretty strong cap on his offensive upside. I'm not sure if Savant calculates EV in the same way that whoever is the BA source did, but 82.9 mph would slot in between Jake Fraley (84.6, 257th) and Esteu82ry Ruiz (82.7, 258th and dead last). Given the small sample size for Teel (114 PA; 70 events) I wouldn't worry too much yet. That's a GREAT sign for Rafaela. There had previously been reports of below-average exit velocities, but 89.1 would place him as above-average for MLB (~88mph), which is a fair bit better than he performed in his own MLB SSS (85.5 in 86 PA; 53 events). Keep in mind, they may be average, but that's average among the best prospects in all of baseball.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 18, 2024 2:51:52 GMT -5
With injury prone mid-rotation starters and dependable back-end starters getting mid-teens to low-20s AAV contracts, that could be where the smart money is at in developing prospects. More Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta types. Easier to acquire and affordable in arbitration.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 16, 2024 17:58:57 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 16, 2024 14:26:13 GMT -5
I think the most interesting element of the BP list is that they still have Rafaela at 59. I like him as a prospect, but we discuss his (very real and obvious) developmental challenges so frequently, that maybe some of us (myself included) are overcorrecting a bit in terms of our evaluation. I assumed he'd be an honorable mention on most lists, or maybe in the back 10-20 names on a few lists. 59 is higher than I expected to see him, anywhere. RE Mayer: I could see him going anywhere from the mid teens to 50. The main mitigating factor folks will point to (his struggles in AA being due to playing through an injury) underscore a separate concern for Mayer (durability). Keep in mind, the national publications have been consistently higher on Rafaela and he's coming off a strong year offensively in AAA.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 16, 2024 14:23:58 GMT -5
I mean, even if he hits for a Sandy Leon-esque 60 wRC+, his defense in CF gives him like a 2 WAR floor as a full-time player. He’s a major leaguer as long as he can hit at least a little bit. This isn't really true. Dalton Varsho led the league in Fangraphs def. WAR among qualified primary CF's, and had an 85 wRC+ and put up 2.1 WAR. A 60 wRC+ would not be good enough for Rafaela to be a full time player, he probably needs to get to at least 80. Varsho doesn't meet your criteria as he had 817 innings in LF and only 462.1 in CF in 2023. He'd probably be at ~2.8 fWAR if he played exclusively CF. I'd estimate ~70-75 wRC+ for a full-time 2 fWAR CFer with Varsho's defense exclusively in CF.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 15, 2024 15:55:05 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 14, 2024 12:03:46 GMT -5
If it's smart to trade Yoshida and sign Soler, then why wouldn't the team trading for Yoshida just sign Soler instead? If the Red Sox had to start a game today (ignoring platoons), they'd likely have 5 LHHs and 4 RHHs, so there isn't a clear lefty/righty issue (anymore) which this would solve. Maybe that hypothetical team wants a LHH stick instead of a RHH stick This provides a theoretical answer for a theoretical team that may be interested. But now why do the Red Sox want to do this if the lefty/righty issue is the differentiator? Only reason I can think of would be if they signed another lefty bat first, but that hasn't happened yet (and a majority of the top remaining position player free agents are right-handed).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 14, 2024 11:59:21 GMT -5
First base is soooo far awayyyyyy... The dugout is way closer 🤤 But seriously, I could see something like: fatigue worsens performance at the plate > player starts pressing > player walks less. usually, if a hitter is fatigued, they feel they need to start the swing a little sooner, which leads to making earlier swing decisions, which leads to chasing more, swinging more, and weaker contact. Do you have any statistical evidence or reference material to support this?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 14, 2024 11:56:18 GMT -5
Yoshida had a 136 wRC+ in the first half, and a 73 wRC+ in the second half, when he was rolling over on ground balls and looked totally gassed. If you think he’s closer to his whole season wRC+ of 109 I can understand wanting to trade him. Personally, I believe he’s closer to his first half performance and have hope that he’ll come back with the necessary conditioning and adjustments to sustain that success. Fangraphs seemingly agrees, projecting him for a 120 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR. That player would be well worth the money. Edit: Incandenza beat me to it He was also projected for what a 131 wRC+ last year? Listen he can improve but I feel like people here would be mad if we traded him and signed Soler to a two year deal But logically that’s the most efficient thing we can do right now with that position no? If it's smart to trade Yoshida and sign Soler, then why wouldn't the team trading for Yoshida just sign Soler instead? If the Red Sox had to start a game today (ignoring platoons), they'd likely have 5 LHHs and 4 RHHs, so there isn't a clear lefty/righty issue (anymore) which this would solve.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 6, 2024 16:57:11 GMT -5
The 2 year decline of Cease's strikeouts (4.6%) and walks (0.5%) along with his decreased fastball velocity (1.0 mph) aren't good, but they're slight enough that they may be randomness/noise. He did set career highs in LD% (24.9%) and hardhit% (41.5%) which lead to a career high .330 BABIP.
The greatest change I see was the drop in effectiveness of his curveball over the past 3 years: +1.3, -5.1, -9.1 (runs above average). At the same time he has increased to usage of his slider (up 8.1%) while decreasing the usage of his changeup/splitter (4.4%). It's possible he has lost some of the feel for his curveball and a decrease in its usage while increasing the usage of his changeup could negate some of the loss.
I'd still feel pretty good about a guy who was the best in baseball last year in inducing bad swings. For anyone who hasn't yet, check out the 'sword' article linked at the top - it's interesting in ways aside from Dylan Cease as well.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 5, 2024 11:31:21 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 21:35:50 GMT -5
Was able to listen to a few podcasts after work today and boy was that a mistake! Robert Murray, Fenway Rundown, and Jared’s latest pod all basically said the red sox are not looking to spend money and both Jared and Cotillo/Mcadam said they don’t think they’ll come close to the luxury tax line. As a fan i’m always going to be emotional and maybe they prove these guys wrong and i got worked up over nothing, but YIKES. They're, what, $37 million short of the LTT now? Signing two starters would get them close. Or one starter and one Teoscar. What explanation did all these people give for why they would fail to do that? If we're assuming they aren't going over the CBT this year, and that they once again have a buffer for in-season moves (8mil last year), then you're likely short a few mil (unless Paxton, or similar, is one of those starters).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 21:30:30 GMT -5
A Cody Bellinger signing would put a nice bow on today's Bader/Rafaela/backup 1B discussions. Oh god he would be a disaster here. His HR totals would be cut by more than half in 2021 and 2022 by Fenway, by 27% this year, he overperformed his xwOBA like crazy (only 53rd percentile), and he’s a lefty that pulls his fly balls 1.3x more often than the MLB average which will really hurt at Fenway. I’d rather just play Rafaela for almost no money even if he’s a 87 wRC+ hitter like steamer says. It would be one thing if you could keep him to a relatively short term or heavily incentive laden deal, but that seems unlikely. I don’t see the point of going huge on a glove first CF who has already lost his pop (22nd % EV, 27th % Brl, 10th % Hard Hit) at age 28.The interesting part about Bellinger's power loss is that it just happened this past year, when he bounced back with a 134 wRC+. Simultaneously he set a career best strikeout percentage (15.6%). The launch angle dropping to his previous norms at 17.2 (16.2-17.9 from 2017-2020), down from 22.2 and 20.3 in 2021/2022, likely contributed to his rebound. Not sure about Bellinger, but I like him much more than Teoscar. Both have huge risks, but at least Bellinger has upside and can play CF. Can see a path of trading Duran for pitching and signing Bellinger if the Red Sox think he can replicate his 4.1 fWAR for a couple of more years. His market has been pretty quiet in terms of rumors.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 15:13:50 GMT -5
The team just dealt chris sale with 17M to the braves to buy grissom. That doesn't really feel like a strapped for cash move. You can't tell me the dodgers or someone wouldn't have taken sale and his contract for a proverbial bucket of balls. Not saying they're gonna spend with the top 5 payrolls every year but they have plenty of money for 1 year deals on guys like Bader If they wanted to or at least that's my belief. On the surface I agree. But you do have reports (granted not from Heyman or Rosenthal) that state they're looking to get rid of Jansen's deal at 1/16 because they can't make an offer to a FA without it. That kind of tells me that they "can't afford" to spend 10 million on a 4th outfielder. Last year, as reported, the Red Sox had a payroll budget 8mil below the CBT at the beginning of the season. If we assume it's the same this year, that would give them about 37mil to spend, which is likely a bit short of signing Montgomery/Snell and Teoscar (or similar) and that's assuming they don't sign anyone else (while they still need a LHRP). opening another 10mil would give the Red Sox the room they need to operate. Given that Jansen is 36 and on the last year of his contract, he should hold value to an all-in team, which wouldn't be the Red Sox - so it makes sense.
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