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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 6, 2020 10:42:59 GMT -5
Fat pitchers never work out. David Wells and CC Sabathia were just awful. They never last long either. Look at how short Bartolo Colon's career was. You want to argue he has shoulder problems, that's fine. This narrative that he's a bad prospect because he's fat is asinine. It's like... not even really clear that he's fat?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 6, 2020 10:36:00 GMT -5
But you don't run a good franchise by just throwing money at it, look at the Yanks. I mean... don't make me say it, dude...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 6, 2020 10:34:31 GMT -5
This is either really bad spin based on all the pushback on the deal that now has Sox saying they “didn’t know” Grateroll’s injury history or that is 95% more likely to be a reliever (um, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference) or Bloom should be fired for not doing his homework/settling just to move Price now (with all that cash) instead of waiting til the All Star break/Trade deadline. The incompetence continues, either way. You know maybe this really is just a simple case of an elbow that doesn't look as good as the parent club said it did, but like... the fact that they got annihilated for this move and then all of a sudden weird hints start getting dropped from Red Sox connected people... I don't know what the hell is going on but this thing has been a mess from the start. Maybe next time, hire your GM before you show your hand to every other team in the league, guys.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 14:19:13 GMT -5
His walk rate between Double-A and Triple-A last year was 10.1%. That's not troubling or anything, especially considering his plus stuff, but it's not also in the range where I'd say his control is good. Well most people with his stuff walk 5 batter per 9, so I’m glad he keeps it between 3-4 per 9 at the higher levels. He throws strikes. He throws them at 100 mph with movement. I didn’t say he was Zack Greinke. You're also not addressing his scouting reports or his projections.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 13:34:35 GMT -5
Why though? To go from 85 wins to 87? Entertainment purposes if nothing else. A couple wins doesn't matter that much for the draft unless the team is really awful. The potential to bring in even one decent prospect if he does well I think easily outweighs moving the Red Sox from the 14th pick to the 15th or something.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 13:23:46 GMT -5
I mean do you have access to his walk rates and homer rates? His walk rates are fine but not eye-popping, and I acknowledged that the home run suppression has been there, but not in a sample size that carries almost any meaning, OR in an environment that has almost any meaning. Steamer has him at 1.20 HR/9. I wouldn't give him much extra credit beyond that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 13:14:53 GMT -5
I'd argue Martin Perez is the #3 starter. (No, that wasn't supposed to make you feel better.) Lest you think I'm kidding, Perez has a 3.5 bWAR over the last four years, Eovaldi has a 2.9. I will always love Eovaldi for what he did in the playoffs, but given the timing, his injury history, and the allocation of resources, that looks like a really horrific signing. I hope he proves me wrong. I expect the offense to continue to be very good, though there are holes. Betts was the Red Sox best player, but he may have only been their fourth-best hitter last year. Bogaerts/Martinez/Devers is a great core, and I expect Benintendi to bounce back. They have a lot of innings to figure out though. This is the other thing where I have to come down on ownership. You can't give your GM the latitude to put you in that kind of bind, and then be so inflexible out getting out of it. If the luxury tax was going to be a priority, and obviously it was, you can't allow Dombrowski to expend the tiny bit of wiggle room you had left in the budget the way he did. This whole Padres thing was clearly an attempt to regain the leverage that was lost when ownership announced this move through a megaphone at the start of the offseason. It also clearly didn't work. I mean, you were able to get them to offer... some kind of deal where the Red Sox pay Wil freakin Myers? No surprise that the Dodgers weren't scared.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 13:03:27 GMT -5
There are so few people that have his stuff, throw strikes, and keep it in the park. The only thing I’m concerned about is the injury history. But without that history he isn’t being traded Does he... do those things? I guess he's mostly suppressed home runs but there's not nearly enough sample size to go on. Particularly given that we haven't seen him against the bouncy ball essentially at all. Yes I know he throws a sinker, but the whole league is trying to lumberjack sinkers right now, and they've been doing a hell of a job... Fangraphs also has him as a 40/45 command guy, which if he's a strike thrower (is he?) but with sub-standard command, even assuming an average home run rate might be a little generous.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 12:54:50 GMT -5
Yeah my friends, having a player like Mookie Betts will inevitably lead to your team crashing. Yea that's why the Tigers are still so good with Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers (who Dombrowski made a bunch of short term deals and drained the farm) are exactly who they are referencing Right, because he gets paid $150m a year and they're forced to pay everyone else the league minimum. The Tigers suck because they haven't developed anyone good in forever, or signed anyone good in forever, or made any good trades in forever. Miguel Cabrera would arguably be a problem if they were on the cusp but maxed out on spending. They're not, they've been poorly run for a while now to the point where the Cabrera contract is completely irrelevant to anything that's going on with them. Like they would have gone out and gotten Strasburg and been good if not for that darn Miggy contract? Get real, they're just a bad team.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 12:51:21 GMT -5
Another (minor) note in all this: what a weird contract Kenta Maeda signed! $3M a year for 8 years??? But then up to $10M a year in incentives? Annual roster bonus of $150,000 if he was on the 25-man opening-day active roster. $1 million each for 15 and 20 starts, and $1.5 million apiece for 25, 30 and 32 starts. $250,000 for 90 innings pitched and each additional 10 through 190, and $750,000 for 200. By my math that puts him at $9m, 5M, 3M and 5.4M the last four years in incentives. Still a bargain, but a weird one. Anyone see the Twins keeping him to 24 starts?I'd forgotten about that, it's probably the weirdest contract since Wakefield? And as to the starts thing, man, whoever proposed that incentive structure sure did not see the opener coming. Awkward situation for everyone really, I wonder if it might get renegotiated at some point.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 12:42:59 GMT -5
So is Brusdar or Casas #1 in the system? Trying to slightly move on over here I tend to have a strong bias towards MLB-ready guys (Houck is a guy I'd rank higher than most on that basis, for instance), but Brusdar is just about as risky as risky gets (young, hard throwing, already been hurt a bunch), so I feel like that mitigates a lot Casas's distance from the majors concerns. I'd probably give it to Casas just because 70 raw power feels like the rarest/most valuable single tool between the both of them. Seems far more likely that they could go out and trade for another Brusdar type versus a young hitter with Casas's upside. So is Brusdar or Casas #1 in the system? Trying to slightly move on over here I imagine it will be debatable. I'd go with Casas personally on the basis of Gaterol's injury history and risk for relief. That said, even if he becomes a reliever, he probably projects no worse than a 50 FV reliever with upside of 55/60 so still on a similar tier to Casas. Yeah but a 60 1b is wildly more valuable than a 60 reliever, no?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 11:56:02 GMT -5
That's not really fair. They have 4 rings with 3 GMs and 3 managers. They have to be doing something right.Sure, and Sandy Leon indisputably did a lot of stuff right to play in the major leagues. That doesn't make him a flawless or even good player. It is just super weird to me to assume that the people who brought you Bobby Valentine are super-geniuses who deserve total credit for engineering this run of championships.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 11:44:10 GMT -5
I don’t care about ownership.... they are neither the best nor the worst. I operate under the assumption that they simply expected not to be able to resign Mookie even with good faith efforts. Fine. My beef is with the idea that this move is better than a year of Mookie and a pick. They got back about as little as they could for what they gave up. It might also have helped if they haven't telegraphed this whole thing from the start, leaving their new GM to negotiate from a point of weakness.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 11:41:52 GMT -5
- I would have liked for the Sox to get more, I was excited when Gammons said Jeter Downs and Caleb Ferguson along with Verdugo was a possibility, but unfortunately I think Gammons makes crap up a lot of the time.I'm guessing the Red Sox fed him that in a last ditch attempt to get some kind of leverage on the Padres.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 11:39:39 GMT -5
Just curious, do you like the Celtics? Do you wish ownership would sell? It's just really odd that even despite this debacle and absolute mess that this is still the same ownership that has brought 4 championships since it took over after not winning for 86 years, dysfunction and all I know that a lot of people will absolutely never be able to grok this, but there's an valid argument that the Red Sox won those championships in spite of this ownership group. Terry Francona is wearing two Red Sox World Series rings and these people made him a scapegoat for their own bad decisions and called him an f'ing drug addict on the way out of town. I'll give him a thousand times the credit I'll ever give Henry and co.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 11:33:39 GMT -5
I struggle with the Comp Balance Tax issue. On the one hand, no good business man sets himself up to pay extra money he doesn't have to. On the other hand, the 2019 Sox tax was $13.4 million. The Sox have been averaging $80M in profits the last few years, so we're talking now only making $67M in profit and that's not really a penalty for fielding consistent World Series favorites. That all being said, if the Red Sox decided to just say "Screw You" to the tax and just outspent everyone and continually went over the tax, not only would other owners/teams hate us, but it would likely result in either harsher penalties or an actual hard cap. As much as we wall like to think we know what it takes to run a half billion dollar company, there's tons of behind the scenes happenings and politics that are just as important to the organization as a whole as signing a new first baseman. So maybe it would be easy to just sign Mookie, keep Price, go over the tax again, and boohoo John Henry only gets to line his pocket with $60M instead of $80M. But do you really think Major League Baseball is just going to let us keep doing that? As for the draft picks, I honestly see that as a far secondary penalty, because if you commit to outspend everyone you can absorb having weaker draft classes. And this is... supposed to make me feel better about the trade?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 11:28:56 GMT -5
I agree they need more dumping. If you're going to dump, dump. Get some good prospects and fix the payroll. Trade Sale, Evoldi, and Bradley. Then we'll look more like the Rays without the pitching development. If this is an indication of what Henry wants, then let him have it. Raise the ticket prices. And watch the attendance go down. Nobody will watch NESN. Then he'll sell. Hopefully. This might be the first time I don’t bother buying the MLB package. I can watch losers, I even watched Valentine’s team, but... this is going to be so dull. I suppose the sliver lining here is that I'm actually permitted stream games involving my favorite player now. Tight ship you're running here MLB, can't imagine why you're having problems growing your audience.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 11:17:26 GMT -5
You can't say the criticism is misplaced because "at least they got under the cap". That IS the criticism.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 9:28:32 GMT -5
That list is like handing in a term paper in 18-point font. Yan Gomes? Archie Bradley? You really thought you were going to sneak that by? Can't wait for twenty twenty two to sign Archie Bradley, It's also just an extra little twist of the knife that so many of the best players on this list are shortstops and therefor not a great match for a team committed to Bogaerts and (we hope) Devers. For some reason I thought Archie Bradley was a better bullpen piece than what he was last year. Still, I'm not saying spend your Mookie money on Archie Bradley. Just that there's valuable bullpen arms when your bullpen has been this team's Achilles heel. It is unfortunate that 2022 is highlighted by a plethora of phenomenal SS, but there's some good pieces all around the diamond to be obtained. Oh come on. We just got through every 2019 reliever signing being awful, and you want to tell me about guys who are going to be good in 2022? Free agent relievers available in future seasons do not figure into this discussion whatsoever.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 9:23:22 GMT -5
No negatives in the last 2 years. I mean... he did just get traded away from his parent organization. If he's this easy three win player with upside and five years of control, AND no personality or coachability issues... why are the Dodgers trading him again? Yes, I know, World Series drought, but they're not crazy and they're not desperate. Verdugo was the guy they held the line at, not the guy the Red Sox forced them to give up in a hard-won negotiation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 9:04:39 GMT -5
Was this supposed to make me feel better? There's like three guys I'd want, and one of them they just traded. Did you put Osuna on this list to troll us? That list is like handing in a term paper in 18-point font. Yan Gomes? Archie Bradley? You really thought you were going to sneak that by? Can't wait for twenty twenty two to sign Archie Bradley, It's also just an extra little twist of the knife that so many of the best players on this list are shortstops and therefor not a great match for a team committed to Bogaerts and (we hope) Devers.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 9:03:19 GMT -5
Well now that I know Yan Gomes is on the table for the 2022 season I see the wisdom of this move.
Also, for everyone who says that a Betts extension is unacceptably expensive and a de facto albatross... what do you think a Lindor contract looks like?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 8:34:49 GMT -5
I can't get over how good a pickup Price is for the Dodgers at 3/$45. They're paying him less than the Red Sox are paying Eovaldi. They got David Price at Will Smith money. He's going to be really good for them and I hope people around here are ready to hear about it A LOT.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 8:22:40 GMT -5
They better roll out the brinks truck for Devers. Don't let him get away. They have no excuse not to now. On the flip side, now that this team isn't competing in any real sense this season, they should absolutely be taking offers on Eduardo Rodriguez. I feel like the rest...air out of the balloon and season......But we've enjoyed a remarkable run.... How many teams have been able to win 4 Series in a span of 14 years? We waited 86 years!!! We'll be back. In the meantime the sun will rise, the sun will set, and we'll have lunch. A wise man once told me I shouldn't pay for past performance.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2020 8:13:47 GMT -5
Yes, because will never know if this team could’ve made a run. We won’t have a team like that for years, I don’t care what they say About resetting. As for Price, he was very good until he got injured in 2019. I would’ve at least taken him into the All-Star break, especially with the ownership team telling us over and over again how he and Sale are ready to go. This is just a bad deal. Ownership is treating this team like they’re the Kansas City Royals or something. this does nothing more than put money in the owners pockets. if you look at the upcoming free agents, there is nothing to reload on. You have Mookie, Springer - Who will be 31 and not have a trashcan - and there isn’t a pitcher worth a damn on the free-agent market, and no one in the system at AA-AAA or even A projected to be better than a #3 This past year was the year to get a starter, with regards to free agents; the year before was the year to get relievers. Instead the Red Sox did nothing, and this is a big solution? What a joke. It’s beyond a white flag move. It’s a bad deal. On top of that, this whole idea that the 2021 team is going to be amazing now... I mean, Sale isn't young, and he's had arm issues. JDM isn't young, and he's had back issues. Eduardo Rodriguez isn't young (despite what people weirdly seem to believe) and he's pitching on a reconstructed knee. There's not much that's particularly bankable for 2021 besides Bogaerts and Devers. It's not like they have everything in place now to be Dodgers/Astros superteam after 2020. They have a couple franchise players and a whole lot of work to do.
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