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Post by p23w on Dec 5, 2013 2:17:14 GMT -5
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Post by p23w on Dec 5, 2013 1:46:54 GMT -5
Bring back Kalish, bring back Kalish, bring back Kalish Bring back Kalish, bring back Kalish, bring back Kalish, ...... I can hear the chants even now.
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Post by p23w on Dec 4, 2013 13:37:57 GMT -5
I think it's foolish to assume his defense and baserunning will immediately regress. He's only 30 (interestingly, exactly 1 month younger than me); speed and defense don't usually fall off of a cliff. His SPD score is similar to what it's been every full season he's played, his BABIP is a whopping 5 points higher than his second highest season and is only 13 points higher than his next highest season. He's not regressing to the average, and it's wishful thinking to say that he will. I'll predict he puts up at least a 120wRC+ next season with similar defensive #s. While Ellsbury has always had excellent speed and defense numbers, his marks in those areas in 2013 are well above his career averages, and so we should expect some regression to the mean there on principle. Moreover, while he won't fall off a cliff, defense peaks early and steadily declines through the late-20s and early-30s: ...as does baserunning: ...and so I think it's absolutely fair to include age-based decline in those areas as well. His 2013 BABIP wasn't extreme (especially if you decide to compare it to his next-best seasons, which you really shouldn't do), but if you were a betting man, you'd guess he'd do worse in 2014 than he did in 2013. Again, not falling off a cliff regression, but steady regression in multiple areas that add up to a pretty solid dip in his value. I understand your broader point that if you totally discount his injury-plagued years, Ellsbury looks like an elite player rather than just a very good one. But I don't think you can just totally throw out his 2010/2012, and even if you do, it's just bad projection methodology to hold steady every aspect of his game that he outperformed while also bumping him up in the couple areas that he might have underperformed. I understand the obsession with empirical "data", but I think you are overlooking the obvious. 1) Ellsbury has gained 15 lbs. since his rookie year. 15 Solid pounds. 2) I would submit that this extra "strength" has had a negligible affect on his speed, but will translate into greater power production given another year for his shoulder to heal, an off-season for his stress fractured foot to mend and the friendly confines of his new home field. 3) Ellsbury has quietly, but efficiently, done a lot of on the job learning. He has studied pitchers and improved his SB% markedly (to the point where he was 6/7 in the post season WITH a stress fractured foot). Stealing bases is not ALL about speed. Ellsbury has learned this and it should serve him well as he ages. Let';s just hope this doesn't rub off on Brett Gardner,
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Post by p23w on Dec 4, 2013 13:17:02 GMT -5
I think the Sox need to focus on what made them World Series champions last year, the depth. They need insurance and a possible platoon partner for JBJ if he can't hit lefties. This guy would also serve as Victorino depth for the ~40 games he'll miss with injuries. This person is not named Gomes, Nava, Carp, Granderson or Choo. They have enough crappy LFers and don't really have any business signing another one. They also need insurance for WMB not bouncing back. This person could be either a SS or 3B. They lucked out last year with Iglesias - which came because they signed Drew and knew they had Iglesias as depth instead of relying on him from day 1. This person might actually be Drew again, which could free up WMB in a trade. I'd prefer to go after Headley. Franklin Gutierez & Garin Cecchini.
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Post by p23w on Dec 4, 2013 13:02:23 GMT -5
I'm sure Ben is checking in with Moore in KC on Butler. If the Royals sign Beltran it would add another power bat to the lineup and may make Billy a little more available. He's got a lifetime .298/.364/.459 slash with a .823 OPS in seven seasons. He has been almost exclusively a DH, but can probably play 1B as passably as Papi (not exactly GG quality). Would the Royals accept a Peavy or Dempster + prospect(s) for him? If the Royals sign Beltran, Butlers' days as a DH are numbered. Dempster alone (with some salary relief) would get the job done. Watching Butler play 1B for the RS would be an adventure all its; own.
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Post by p23w on Dec 4, 2013 9:53:57 GMT -5
I think the key thing to understand here is that deal made sense for the Yankees, but would make no sense for us to approach, let alone match. 1) He's ideally suited for their ballpark, and an ill fit for ours. 2) Because of their so-so farm system and aging roster, they project to be on the cusp on getting into the post-season for the duration of this contract. Our situation is rosier. The wins that get you from an also-ran into the post-season are far more valuable than any extra wins you accrue once you're there. They are looking for a lot of the former, while we are reasonably looking at at least a bit more of the latter. It's been shown that those sorts of wins can be worth quite a bit more than $5M each. At $7M per win, which is a figure I've seen mentioned, they need 22 WAR over seven years, from a player coming off a 5.8 WAR season who can reasonably be expected to add value from power, both because of the park and because he's a year removed from a shoulder injury. I think they stand a very good chance of being ahead on this deal after four years, which means he doesn't have to be worth anything during the years when he'll be worth not much. They are of course gambling on getting 140 games for him each year, which is to say avoiding major injury. I have no strong opinion on whether he's truly injury prone ("I'm a sabermetrician, dammit, not a doctor!"). Pretty much sums it up. Although, now, a side of my wouldn't mind if there was a pop fly ball to shallow RCF at YS and a Ellsbury and Cano met up close and personal.
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Post by p23w on Dec 4, 2013 9:45:25 GMT -5
Anyone believe that Lucchino will see the Ellsbury signing as challenge to outbid the Yankmees on Tanaka? Yes.
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Post by p23w on Dec 3, 2013 0:24:58 GMT -5
This is MLB's side of the story. The Japanese could counter with, OK, the cap is $80M. Or they could negotiate the cap down and give the player the choice of whom to negotiate/sign with. In any event it would be well worth it for MLB to leave some room to save face in the negotiations. If the roles were reversed.... not so much. Should prove interesting, as will the duration of the new agreement.
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Post by p23w on Dec 3, 2013 0:02:39 GMT -5
Really strange … what was Dombrowski thinking? This isn't his first rodeo. I've got 3 good young players that are cost controlled for more years..... I've got a vastly improved INF defense which will make (another L/T cost controlled) Porcello that much better. Perhaps meeting or exceeding Fister's production. Or it could be a short sale based on clubhouse demeanor or confidential medical concerns. The man has his reasons.
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Post by p23w on Dec 1, 2013 9:41:47 GMT -5
Gabe Kapler wrote an interesting article recently regarding players health and attitude. He included several examples (including himself) and made mention of the importance of roll models, ego, leadership and being in touch with one's condition. He also related the roll that agents play when it came to advising their clients about injuries. One example dealt with Pedroia, a team leader, who played the entire season despite an injury. Kapler also made strong reference to Ryan Kalish, whom he viewed as a potential team leader but who only made his physical condition worse by trying to play though it and come back to soon. Kapler observed that Kalish reminded him of Trot Nixon. Tenacity is a personality trait that deals well with adversity. And yes, one can measure for tenacity. Nixon had it. As did Kapler. Pedroia is currently the Northeast distributor for tenacity. I'd like to see one or more of the prospects with this personality trait. I think I've seen flashes of it in Middlebrooks and Webster, perhaps JBJ also. Kalish has it, and unless his adversities have overwhelmed him Ryan could be a valuable roll model and example if he came back 100% intact. Think of the impact on the newbies if one of them rivaled veteran Pedroia in tenacity. Last year it was about testosterone and beards. I'm hoping 2014 is about tenacity and repeats.
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Post by p23w on Nov 30, 2013 18:17:14 GMT -5
I think part of my point is that this maybe very difficult to do and if the Red Sox can't do that in 2014 that's not necessarily a reason to criticize the management team. Last year the Red Sox hit on every free agent including a few risky ones. That's not going to happen every year. The original idea of the Punto trade was to blow up the core and start fresh by integrating guys from the farm system. That didn't work out so well last year, but they will be starting to do that in 2014. If they have to take a step back or two while while they integrate young players that's fine by me. Getting "lucky" with free agent signings was one thing. Loosing BOTH your closers and then to get what they got out of Uehara..... Meeting up with the Tigers in the playoffs, while the best pure hitter in the game has an abdominal strain.... I mean. Having a late addition to the lineup journeyman turn around the momentum of the WS with a 3-run bomb..... pinch me. Sure, bring on the baby faced beardless newbies. IF the pitching depth lives up to the hype.... what if? I'm not sold on any of the position player prospects.... yet. Somehow the prospect of loosing 4 regulars from the 2013 lineup does not inspire me. To much change/too soon. Besides I would like further verification that 2013 really played out the way it did. To paraphrase Yogi, i want "deja vu"... all over again. Core schmore.... I wants more magic. PS I honestly believe that the psychological (or personality or behavioral.... whatever you wish to call it) attributes that Cherrington and company have applied to the assemblage of this roster flies under the radar of most analysts and fans. If anything i believe that a sincere effort at targeting these positives "types" is/can be every bit as important as SABER statistical analysis. Yes, elite talent can overcome a**hole personalities (the NYY's have a track record to prove this), but a team of lesser talent goal focused players can achieve the same results, as we have been blessed to be witness to. Gotta' believe the newbies exposed to the RS in 2013 (Bogey, JBJ, Workman, Britton, Webster, to a lesser extent Middlebrooks and de la Rosa) benefited more than just from exposure in the show. They got to "absorb' the winning karma from the clubhouse. All this, after the debacle that was 2012. Love this game.
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Post by p23w on Nov 30, 2013 14:42:23 GMT -5
One comment on Swithart from a few days ago. He's NOT in the high minors. Even if he's slated to start the season in AA, he's never done anything there so saying that now we have 2 catchers in the high minors is misleading at best. This year is a major year for him. We can start to figure out what we have. A whole new world coming for him. He's either going to become a major prospect or a disappointment. Lots of high ceiling guys peter out at AA Agreed. At least one season in AA, with encouraging results, before Swihart is 'top prospect" worthy. If Vasquez is the real deal (another big IF) I could see Swihart changing positions, provided his bat is worthy.
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Post by p23w on Nov 30, 2013 14:34:38 GMT -5
I'll sit back and let Cherrington and his staff (with input from Farrell) decide what the core is and who the players will/should be. As a RS advocate i realized a long time ago that the fan has very little input into the roster. It's in the hands of professionals, WHO btw just experienced a true "lightening in a bottle" season and are now burdened with raised expectations. If Cherrington/Farrell and the team pull off a repeat of 2013, I will forego any and all criticism of this organization and relegate myself to bobble head status.
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Post by p23w on Nov 30, 2013 14:22:26 GMT -5
From a needs and stats perspective I think Braun would be an excellent addition going forward. From a fan/PR perspective... not so much, or as my NYY Lady observed you just miss all the ARod attention. Yeah, right.
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Post by p23w on Nov 23, 2013 20:58:03 GMT -5
The Cardinals are closing in on a deal with Jhonny Peralta. He's expected to play shortstop. Little surprised they chose him over Drew. Peralta doesn't have a QO attached. That simple. Yep. Although i can't fathom the apparent price tag for Perralta.
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Post by p23w on Nov 23, 2013 16:22:13 GMT -5
Regarding Taz, he was ripped a lot this year for a guy who I think pitched very well overall. He did make me nervous in the post season relying so heavily on the heater away, but was obviously very effective. I think Farrell did a great job using him without overexposing him to the same team during a long series. I'm very surprised at the lack of respect Miller gets around here. His improvement has been gradual and I think he's really found a good role as a late inning reliever. Losing him was huge last season and I can only imagine how much easier the playoffs would've been with him there. He was dealing an we all talk about development of taller relievers. He could be the closer if Koji breaks down. Koji, anyone confident he doesn't breakdown next year? I like adding this guy for low cost. Not a big fan of low K rates in the pen, but love ground balls and low walk rates so he's a nice tool to have in the belt. I think Tazawa caused a lot of anxiety for Farrell during the regular season. I think that was why Workman was added to the playoff roster. Likewise Miller's injury lead to the unenviable decision between Morales and Thorton. Which leads to the thrust of my point the Baddenhop signing reflects Farrells' concerns about the bullpen. With respect to Koji. Given his age and history, yes a breakdown is possible. Given his ability as a strike thrower the occurrence of DL time for Uehara will probably lead to ulcers for Farrell. And yes, I love sinking pitches and ground balls..... which is why I want to see guys like Balcom-Miller get healthy and advance. I'm not enamored with Big K rates when the guys we trade for have them wind up needing surgery/
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Post by p23w on Nov 23, 2013 1:40:47 GMT -5
I swear Farrell aged a year each time Morales, Tazawa or Miller came into a game and walked their first batter, One of them is not like the others my man. Tazawa was a toss in because he was the team leader in blown saves (or holds) and they aged Farrell as much as the walks did. In any event for a team that was 4rth in the league in free passes you've got to know that didn't sit well at all with a former pitcher/pitching coach.
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Post by p23w on Nov 23, 2013 1:31:21 GMT -5
Not interested in Matt Kemp at all. Hope Cherrington has no interest as well.
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Post by p23w on Nov 22, 2013 19:03:45 GMT -5
Love the move. Low-cost, strike-throwing right-hander who has been very effective vs. RHB's throughout his career (2.85 FIP, 5.68 K/BB, .642 OPS allowed). Him and Miller provide that boost for the sixth/seventh innings that we desperately needed this season. Operative word... strike thrower. I swear Farrell aged a year each time Morales, Tazawa or Miller came into a game and walked their first batter,
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Post by p23w on Nov 22, 2013 19:00:01 GMT -5
Badenhop, one of the great pitching names in baseball, along with Josh Outman of Colorado. Nah. Neither name has the cache of Heathcliff Slocumb.
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Post by p23w on Nov 19, 2013 18:23:27 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 13s Red Sox are exploring right handed setup type reliever SCREAMS "brian wilson" OR Andrew Bailey...
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Post by p23w on Nov 19, 2013 18:20:54 GMT -5
I dig the Hart rumors specially after hearing he's looking for perhaps a 1 year deal. One year? Re-establish his value? Screams Rocky Mountain high to moi.
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 23:19:16 GMT -5
Tazawa is one of four Japanese players who signed with an MLB team before first playing in NPB. The other examples were Mac Suzuki (who got expelled from his Japanese high school and played indy ball in the U.S.), Kazuhito Tadano (who went undrafted by NPB due to a gay porn scandal), and Takumi Numata, who recently signed a minor league contract with the Dodgers but has already been banned for life from Japanese baseball and may still have his MiLB contract revoked ( see here for details). Indeed, after Tazawa signed with the Red Sox, NPB passed the "Tazawa rule", which imposes a multi-year ban (upon their attempt to return to Japan) on amateur players who bypass the NPB draft for MLB. This rule, as well as heavy pressure from both MLB and NPB, has deterred pretty much every attempt by an amateur player to jump straight from Japan to MLB in recent years (see the Shohei Otani odyssey, for instance). The posting system is just another example of a labor market restriction, in the same way that the draft prevents players from signing with the team of their choice (and for higher bonuses) and the pre-arb and arbitration system prevents players from voluntarily switching teams the first six years of their career (and limits their salaries). To compare it to chattel slavery is true to a very limited degree (insofar as freedom of choice is limited in both cases), but represents a gross exaggeration. Thank you for the history lesson, most of which was unknown by me. I think based on my exposure to Japanese culture that the chattel analogy is not far off from what the is felt by a Japanese. They are very sensitive to what we would call feudal servitude. It plays out the same. The feudal chieftain owns the land and the serfs are bound to the land. The Japanese work ethic is very near manic. The concept of choice is relatively new. What impresses me about the culture is the strength of resolve they have collectively when something "new" gains acceptance. In this case "choice" is fast gaining acceptance in traditional Japanese culture. As with most things Japanese they will choose their own ways to express choice (not entirely as we may perceive it). The notion of "choice" may well be playing out in how the Japanese view and what is acceptable to them when it comes to posting ballplayers.
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 22:55:47 GMT -5
No top shelf American player is going to Japan because it's an inferior league and a different culture. A lot of Russian hockey players play in the NHL for less money then they can get in the KHL because it's a better league and better standard of living here. The system is in place to protect Japanese baseball. It's detrimental to the major leagues to have an agreement where they won't sign Japanese players who are under contract away from Japan. Washed up or never has beens go to Japan to dominate and make some dough. Say what you want about the posting system being fair or unfair, but players only get posted who ASK for it. Last I check no African was in West Africa back in 1845 asking to be chained up and shipped to the US so they could be challenged on the most competitive plantations in the world. Can we please move off this slavery bullsh...? If you want to be pissed, be pissed at Japanese baseball for trapping Japanese players in Japan during the best years of their careers and not letting them freely come to the US. Plenty of top shelf American player has gone to Japan, if only to resurrect their career. Ever wonder how older Japanese players (mostly pitchers) show up in the U.S.? Japanese baseball DOES NOT need the protection of MLB. They don't have to compete with football, basketball, hockey's does American baseball. If you don't see the inequity of the current posting system to the Japanese player, go back and answer the question about all those older Japanese pitchers signing contracts with American teams of THEIR choice. And FTR Congress banned the importation of African slaves in 1808.
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 22:34:20 GMT -5
It seems to me to be extremely unfair to Japanese players. Do Japanese teams have any restrictions signing our players and paying them whatever they want? No, but they apparently collude to keep from doing that anyway because they want to keep their cash and not cause player salaries to escalate in their market. The system is designed to exploit Japanese players even after they leave the employment of Japanese teams and the cultural differences between the 2 societies allow that to be acceptable. The players are expected to cooperate for the good of the team, the economy of Japan even in their mind. They are just not nearly as individualistic as Americans but that is probably slowly changing to a degree. It's economic slavery though, even if it is a gilded cage. We pay off Japanese teams and get the talent we want without creating cost escalation with our players from increased Japanese demand. The whole thing is horseshit. I have a hispanic wife and I understand the cultural issue you brought up. Anything that is even perceived of as a possible aberration, as to where you get seated in a restaurant, can be perceived of as a racial slight. If I hear you saying Japanese players should be treated equal to our own in every way then I agree. I imagine that the system is in place because mlb teams don't want Japanese teams to bid against us for our players so they arranged this system to work out an effective deal with Japanese team managers. They cooporated with the owners in Japan. The Japanese players got the shaft. It is starting to look like there are big changes on the way. But they may well not be for the better. The Japanese have an "immigration" quota on American ballplayers. They have many practices and customs that I find difficult to comprehend. If Tanaka is kept from posting due to the lack of an agreement, then so be it. Ridiculous money aside, I think the RS earn high marks among young Japanese players and fans as a preferred "destination".
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