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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 22:22:33 GMT -5
What player who they drafted semi-low and threw a big bonus at was a successful contributor? The closest thing to an example was Joba Chamberlain, a supplemental rounder coming off an injury. I was thinking of the early days when there wasn't even a draft, when they dominated year after year. They paid bigger signing bonuses didn't they and had excellent scouting coverage probably because they could afford both. Not entirely true. If you read Yaz's autobiography you will learn that he was offered $60K by the NYY's. Boston signed him for an even $100K. In this example the Yankees let a hometown talent HOF talent get away for a "mere" $40K. Yankees also "missed out" on Manny who practically grew up in the shadow of YS.
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 22:13:45 GMT -5
I'm not sure what you mean? The posting system is in place so US teams don't raid the Japanese leagues. I disagree. The main beneficiaries to the existing posting system are the team owners in both countries. The players are treated as chattel. The Japanese are still "raided", just at a lesser, more costly rate. Smart teams like the RS scout Japanese talent (Tazawa) and sign them before they sign a professional contract in Japan. Proven Japanese talent cannot seek employment in the States unless they go through the posting system or after 9 years of service in Japan.
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 21:51:48 GMT -5
Fair enough (I disagree, but won't belabor the point), but just about every guy on the above list has playoff experience as well. Also remember that Dempster didn't make a start during the 2013 playoffs and only had a handful of mop-up innings-- I'm not sure he's the paragon of playoff experience you seem to be making him out to be. Recent experience and impressionable minds. Fernandez was, what, 15 years old when Halladay last pitched in a WS game. Mentoring is not just about one's own experience. Stories of Lackey and Lester winning playoff clinching games before their 25th year resonate. Even relaying Napoli's near WS win (twice one strike away) only to change teams, get diagnosed with a debilitating condition, and come back (through hard work and dedication) to win a WS ring plays well in a young club house. Again you contrast this experience with money. Let's just us understand that what you keep harping at is not OUR money. It's OPM. What value they place in exchange for THEIR money is not YOURS (or mine) to judge. Right, it's the Marlins' money. Does that seem like an organization that would spend a lot of cash on veteran mentoring? Every summer, they sell off every veteran player making more than $5m on their roster. Their owner is a noted cheapskate who pockets revenue-sharing money and doesn't spend it on payroll. Again, I just don't see the fit. I suggested that a Dempster trade could be part of a "bigger" needs match between the RS and the Marlins. The Marlins need hitting. I know, I know the Marlins are sitting on some dynamite in the young bats of Stanton, Yelich, Marsinick, and some questionable unfulfilled expectations from Coghlan and Morrison. They finished last in almost all offensive categories last year. Ergo, they need additional power and a "professional" hitter, preferably from the left side. I consider Middlebrooks to be a power hitter and Carp to be a professional LHB. The Marlins owner doesn't get involved until his baseball people suggest a manner in which to improve the team. If the owner buys the needs fit he gets to to negotiate the financial side of the deal. I think that fits Loria's M.O. He doesn't seem to trust other people when it comes to negotiating with his money. The other side of the coin is YTBD. If Ellsbury leaves then the other shoe drops with respect to need. And the Marlins are flush with what I would consider candidates to fulfill that need. I can well understand why, on the face of it a Dempster trade to the Marlins makes little sense, but when you expand the parameters and the needs for both teams, i think it could work to the benefit of both organizations. The money becomes "important" only after both sides acknowledge the value of the other teams offering(s). If Ellsbury leaves I'll expand on this in a trade proposal thread. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1068/2014-red-sox-rotation?page=15#ixzz2kxUb6QU0
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 12:46:49 GMT -5
How a thread labeled "Tanaka" morphs into a discussion of NYY homegrown talent and small market Versus big markets reflects on the ethnocentricity of the contributors. Fair enough. To get back to the crux of the situation the posting rules (as they exist) are skewed in favor of the prevailing powers that hold sway in MLB (and to a lessor extent the Japanese league). The player has no say, no choice in the matter. I can't fathom the MLPA settling for anything remotely similar. I believe the voice of the Japanese players needs to be heard vis-à-vis their union. I live with a Japanese born Lady and I am acutely aware of how the slightest sleight is registered. I also came to understand how being a "relief" pitcher was at first viewed by a Japanese person. In that regard I think Uehara has broken new ground in the traditional Japanese mindset. Seeing him on the mound for the final out of the WS was a revelation. I think baseball fans need to try to learn and grow with the internationalization of the game. I remember when Latin Americans bristled at the implied lack of performance under post season pressure when reading American sportswriters. Yes "it is our game". But we chose to share it and we should embrace and respect what others bring to the table, so long as the fundamental rules to the game remain the same. The "Tanaka" situation finds us at a crossroads involving the "business of baseball" on the international playing field. Do we play that game only by our own self imposed rules?
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 11:59:24 GMT -5
I can literally name a dozen free agent veteran starting pitchers who will come cheaper than Ryan Dempster and can at least approximate his performance. Here's a fine start, for instance. Unless you think "playoff experience" is worth a $10m a year boost (and many of those guys do have extensive playoff experience), any of them would make for cheaper alternatives for bulk innings. YOU seem to be all about the money. MY proposal was a NEEDS fit not a money fit. I do think playoff (especially WS experience) counts when it comes to mentoring young impressionable minds. I think this was FUNDAMENTAL to the success of the 2013 RS. Again you contrast this experience with money. Let's just us understand that what you keep harping at is not OUR money. It's OPM. What value they place in exchange for THEIR money is not YOURS (or mine) to judge. I seriously doubt you can find another dozen available pitchers who have a similar resume and needs fit that Dempster has for the Marlins. I would also refer to the fact that a move of this nature could be part of a bigger deal. We know the Marlins want to upgrade at 3B and we know the RS are most probably in the market for an Ofer (pending the outcome of the Ellsbury soap opera). Both of these market based issues can impact the perception of value of the people who control the purse strings. I wouldn't BEGIN to presume to know how those decisions come about. I can only look at the rosters and project a needs match. The money (each sides perceived value) side gets worked out after the needs decision has been arrived/agreed to.
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Post by p23w on Nov 16, 2013 19:33:08 GMT -5
The Marlins wouldn't be interested even if they'd only have to pay half of Dempster's salary. Even if they wanted to contend, they could get a starting pitcher with more upside for cheaper on the free agent market. The Marlins oldest SP is 27. The most IP by a Marlins starter last year was 130. Given that a GM has to plan for 1440+ IP and has an average SP age of 24 years. I think Dempster fits. Throw in the fact that his NL ERA is more than a half run less per 9 than his AL ERA, and I think Dempster would be someone the Marlins would covet. I don't see the Marlins contending in 2014, but I do see a lot of maturation in process with the young arms. Not many veteran SPitchers with recent WS experience on their resume AND who could contribute. I suppose Halladay would be cheaper. Even Zito, but neither could give the Marlins a 180 IP "boost" and last years playoff experience into the Marlin locker room.
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Post by p23w on Nov 15, 2013 18:15:35 GMT -5
You do what you're good at. If that's a business monopoly, that constitutes a significant problem in my mind. It's one that has no easy resolution. I know one thing. Allowing the biggest market teams to chew up everyone else looks a lot like the unregulated financial system that burned through $13 trillion in free money to right itself, while trashing the global economy. There's got to be a better way. You do what you are good at AND at what you like to do. At the level that these guys express their talents they "should" have the freedom to determine where and with whom they want to play. The concept that big money still controls the destiny of the workplace, does not prevail in the bubble that is MLB. Only in the minds of some fans.
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Post by p23w on Nov 15, 2013 18:07:11 GMT -5
I think the POV of the Japanese player needs more weight in the equation. he is on an auction trade bloc, sold to the highest bidder. There used to be another name for this. I see no harm in giving said player a CHOICE. Top 3 bidders. Player gets to choose his destination. The average of the top 3 posting prices or the original posting price (whichever is lower) is the amount owed to the Japanese team. The contract agreement between the player and his new team MUST be for a minimum of 4 years. Fixed. Oh the HORROR. It must be horrible for these guys to sign for millions of dollars and set their families up for the rest of their lives. Tragic. These guys have already made millions of dollars in Japan. Their families are well provided for. Nice of you to be so concerned. In the History of the posting system the 13 players who have agreed to a first contract with an MLB team have made 180,400,000. That is just in their first contract. And not a single ONE of these players has had the choice of which team he wanted to negotiate with and play for. Try enforcing those rules on Latin American players and the politically correct police would hold a public crucification. It's not always about the money. These guys want to compete at the highest level. The Japanese team record in the WBC is not all about the money either.
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Post by p23w on Nov 15, 2013 17:41:40 GMT -5
FOXSports.com reports that the Orioles are amenable to trading catcher Matt Wieters. With two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, Wieters can become a free agent after the 2015 season. Wieters, who earned $5.5 million in 2013, played in a career-high 148 games and batted .235 with 22 home runs and 79 RBI. I think he would be a great fit here in Boston. A switch hitter who will be 28 in May. I realize that the Red Sox have some great prospects in the system but it seems like young Catchers take so long to develop that I would love to trade for him and buy out his 2 remaing years of arbitration eligibility and sign him to a 4 year extension. What would it take to get him? Workman, Diaz & Coyle? More? Whats everyone think? The fit is not bad. The cost would be much, much more than you project.
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Post by p23w on Nov 15, 2013 11:27:50 GMT -5
I think the POV of the Japanese player needs more weight in the equation. he is on an auction trade bloc, sold to the highest bidder. There used to be another name for this. I see no harm in giving said player a CHOICE. Top 3 bidders. Player gets to choose his destination. The average of the top 3 posting prices or the original posting price (whichever is lower) is the amount owed to the Japanese team. The contract agreement between the player and his new team MUST be for a minimum of 4 years. Fixed.
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Post by p23w on Nov 15, 2013 11:07:04 GMT -5
I think Dempster would be a good fit for the Marlins. They were where he first toed a MLB mound. He could mentor both the young starters and bullpen. He gives them reliable IP. His contract is only for one year. I don't know the Marlins side of the equation, but I think Dempster could be part of a bigger deal with the Marlins.
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Post by p23w on Nov 13, 2013 20:11:00 GMT -5
Rumors don't mean a lot, but word is Seattle has no interest in Jacoby. If that is true, and LAD, LAA, SFO, PHI and DET are all out of the mix, then it's not that unlikely that he returns to Boston on a 5 year deal at around 100M. The only ways he's not back in Boston in my opinion are: 1. If he gets 6 + years 2. He takes a long time to sign. (BC will move on fairly quickly and once he does, I don't think they'll sign him even if it's at the terms they wanted to begin with) I would go as far as "Werth" money. 6 years plus an option totaling $126M.
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Post by p23w on Nov 12, 2013 21:37:52 GMT -5
Congrats to Tito for the win … he got screwed out of at least one of these when he was in Boston for the very same reason Farrell didn't win this year. For whatever reason, when you win in Boston, you're "supposed" to win. When you win in Cleveland, it's all about the genius manager. But, really, Tito deserved a MoY award. He's a terrific manager. And on my list of priorities of things to get worked up over, the justice of who wins a Manager of the Year award is pretty darn low … I think we need to bear in mind that the vote was taken after the regular season and before the playoffs. Cleveland forced their way into the playoffs by winning their last 10 games. Terry's magic ended once the playoffs began, whereas Farrell's magic had just begun in ernest. Timing is everything.
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Post by p23w on Nov 11, 2013 19:42:40 GMT -5
So if we don't re-sign Ellsbury, would anyone be interested in making a legit offer for Andre Ethier? Dustin Pedroia
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Post by p23w on Nov 10, 2013 13:54:52 GMT -5
Why? He really didn't make any terrible decisions. He got a lot of terrible outcomes, but that kind of analysis is purely retrospective. Everything he did was at least defensible at the time, and more often than not his moves were praised to high heaven. The fact that a bunch of the players he brought in decided to go into mid-career tailspins at the same time... I mean, no one predicted that and I don't know how anyone could have predicted it. Nothing terrible, but there were a lot of sort of bad moves. The Lowell contract; replacing Manny with Bay (which was okay) and then with Cameron, shifting Ellsbury to LF (which was not, not for Cameron as a player, but for the OF it would create); taking really long to find any replacement for Jason Varitek's corpse; failing to have pitching depth, both starting and bullpen; the Crawford contract; the Beckett contract; the Bobby Jenks contract. The Beckett and Crawford contracts were the ones that did me in. But you can disagree you know, free country and all. For me it was Julio Lugo. Followed by "Rent"aria. Absolutely hated both signings.
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Post by p23w on Nov 8, 2013 22:35:36 GMT -5
As others have stated, I think Ruiz presents an ideal opportunity to provide a bridge until Vazquez/Swihart are ready to start in the bigs. While Salty was my least favorite player on this year's team once Ciriaco was cut, I think a short term contract would be appealing as well. The only problem is, this is Salty's one chance to break the bank on a long-term deal. A Butler/Ross duo seems redundant to me. Hanigan might present the same redundancy. With that being said, I love his k:bb ratios but he has only played over 100 games in a season once. Can we pencil him in as a starter and hope he gets back to that .270 average? I agree with all of the above (except about Salty being my least favorite).
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Post by p23w on Nov 8, 2013 22:30:43 GMT -5
Owens
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Post by p23w on Nov 8, 2013 22:27:30 GMT -5
Your Marlins friends don't know what they're talking about. Even if they were going to trade Yelich, it'd take way more than that. He's a top 15-ish type prospect (who won't be ranked b/c he graduated). I don't know the Marlins fans other than a blog on the internet. Two asked me about a Yelich for Middlebrooks trade. One suggested Middlebrooks and Bradley, the other Middlebrooks an De La Rosa, I am a HUGE advocate for obtaining Yelich IF Ellsbury is not resigned, If Yelich was made available even if Cherrington signs Ellsbury i'd be all in to trade for him. Let me rephrase the deal from the Marlins perspective. Would you trade Middlebrooks and JBJ for Yelich?
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Post by p23w on Nov 6, 2013 22:03:28 GMT -5
Had an interesting discussion with some bullish Marlin fans. Seems they believe that Stanton is untouchable, but that Yelich could be had. They proposed a trade of Middlebrooks + (and they were all over the place with what else) for Yelich. Very interesting, Seems they have nothing at 3B (Placido Polonco) and want to upgrade with youth and power. Would you favor a deal of, say Middlebrooks and Bryan Villareal for Christian Yelich?
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Post by p23w on Nov 6, 2013 21:41:16 GMT -5
There are two problems with arguing Napoli and/or Ortiz are more likely to get injured than JBJ is to struggle mightily. 1) This scenario relies on Victorino also staying healthy, and I'd argue he's just as likely to be injured at some point. 2) Kalish being healthy and somewhat productive is part of this scenario. Anytime Kalish is mentioned as a key part of Plan B, you aren't being realistic. 1) I think the chances of Victorino hurting himself are higher if he plays CF. He plays a bit shallow. And on balls hit over his head he has to turn, while running, to get a bead on the ball. More than once this year I've seen Shane grab his side after fielding a ball hit over his head and on more than one occasion he left the game shortly thereafter. I think as tough as Victorino is he would miss much more time if he starts in CF than RF. 2) What else can go wrong for this kid? (Kalish). He's got the tools. He would have to have an incredible ST to make the opening day roster IMO. That begs the question who starts in CF at Pawtucket? I wish they would just sign Ellsbury and be done with it.
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Post by p23w on Nov 6, 2013 21:21:47 GMT -5
Actually I think Gutierez is a far superior defender than is Bradley at present. Of course Franklin is older and more experienced and Bradley has room to improve. Gutierez also possesses a better arm IMO. I'm not totally against having Bradley playing CF, but I do think it would help him immensely to adjust if he was platooned and did not have the "do or die" pressure of being compared to his predecessor. I am also intrigued by the relative limited expense to sign Gutierez and to see how this semi-power RHB would fare at Fenway. Again nothing against Bradley. I hope he meets and exceeds your expectations. I just don't think it will happen overnight and I think a short term platoon partner would be a good developmental strategy to take with JBJ. I wouldn't be so sure. Gutierrez has had an alarming amount of hamstring and groin injuries that have really hampered his range. He was basically as good as it gets in the outfield at one point, but his defensive numbers have plummeted the last two seasons to below average levels. I'm not saying he isn't still solid out there, but with these injuries continuing to pile on and him entering his age 31 season, I'm willing to bet Bradley is significantly more effective in the field at this point. That being said, I'm still intrigued by the thought of signing him as a JBJ insurance policy / fifth outfielder. If his legs are up for it, I'd probably take him over Young. He could step in vs. lefties, and also play right field if/when Victorino needs some time off. From what I've read on Seattle blogs Gutierrez was diagnosed with a degenerative joint condition in 2012. He began taking prescribed Meds and his joint problems "migrated' to his stomach, pelvis and quads. (He also had a freak concussion last year). I think a complete physical would be in order to sign Franklin. Once all his issues are known to both sides than a contract similar to Napoli's 2013 deal could be negotiated AND there would be a clear understanding that he would not be expected to play full time. He would have to earn that privilege. Whether Gutierrez is an insurance policy or a platoon player he remains an inexpensive first class defender.
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Post by p23w on Nov 6, 2013 20:56:51 GMT -5
If Napoli goes, I'd give the job to Carp. Belt would be the guy I'd want if it came down to a trade.
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Post by p23w on Nov 5, 2013 23:30:56 GMT -5
I think a viable platoon with Bradley in CF would be Franklin Gutierez. I do not like the thought of Victorino in CF at all. Why are we platooning Bradley all of the sudden? His defense alone should enable him to start, and then you throw in his high OBP. Even though he struggled, the great approach is still there. He also has that work ethic that will push him to refine his game this offseason. I know he struggled in the majors this season, but the guy did show some life in Pawtucket. He was bothered by shoulder injury this season. I think that has been severely underplayed when reviewing his season. Actually I think Gutierez is a far superior defender than is Bradley at present. Of course Franklin is older and more experienced and Bradley has room to improve. Gutierez also possesses a better arm IMO. I'm not totally against having Bradley playing CF, but I do think it would help him immensely to adjust if he was platooned and did not have the "do or die" pressure of being compared to his predecessor. I am also intrigued by the relative limited expense to sign Gutierez and to see how this semi-power RHB would fare at Fenway. Again nothing against Bradley. I hope he meets and exceeds your expectations. I just don't think it will happen overnight and I think a short term platoon partner would be a good developmental strategy to take with JBJ.
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Post by p23w on Nov 5, 2013 23:14:46 GMT -5
A couple of quick thoughts: If Bradley replaces Ellsbury on the roster, who does this hypothetical RHH 5th OF replace? Mike Carp? No, thanks. Between Hassan and Castelannos, the longshot possibilities of Brentz and Kalish, and the fact that Victorino can play CF and Nava RF, I see no need to acquire a "fallback" should JBJ prove inadequate. I don't think Victorino can play CF, except in an emergency. Kalish has the best tools for the job (and the biggest health concerns). Brentz is a good (not great) defensive OFer and has the best arm of anybody listed above (and that includes Victorino).Even if we were interested, why would Brian McCann sign with a team who is likely to want to trade him as early as a year from now? Ideally, the hypothetical right-handed 5th outfielder would replace Jonny Gomes. But he could also replace Mike Carp, who is in for a big regression year (Steamer projects him for .263/.330/.446, which sounds about right) and lacks defensive versatility (he can play left field, but gives back a lot of his offensive value with his bad defense there). Part of the upside to Carp is his ability to come off the bench and generate a good AB. Granted his defensive abilities are below average, but if he is platooned properly as he was in 2013, I see no reason for a regression in his offensive production. I also want no part of Nava as the backup right fielder (his lack of range there similarly gives back a lot of his offensive value). Hassan doesn't have the range for RF either, Kalish has been healthy four months in the last three years, and I just don't think Brentz is good enough. Castellanos certainly could be an option, but he's a wild card and I'm not sure he's good enough either. When an unproven rookie and an oft-injured veteran are you projected starters, I think you need a better insurance option than the above. Brian McCann might need to move off catcher at some point in his next contract, but I'm not sure anyone thinks it'll have to happen by 2015. You think he only has one full year left at catcher? He's always been better regarded defensively than, say, Victor Martinez, even if he does have Saltalamacchia levels of noodle arm. The Fans Scouting Report, for instance, has always had him as averagish. He'll also only be 30 next year, so it's not like age is a major concern yet. Just say no to McCann. To much, largess of ego, learning curve from the NLE to the ALE, wrong message to Swihart and Vasqez. EDIT: This analysis is along the lines of why I think Young and McCann are ideal additions to the Red Sox next year. We can agree to disagree.
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Post by p23w on Nov 5, 2013 22:57:21 GMT -5
I don't think Choo makes sense for the reasons another poster mentioned (I forget who it was). Nava and Gomes is a cheap and effective platoon. Grabbing a cost effective RH of bat to platoon with Bradley makes more sense. Then we could spend the cash upgrading at C,1B, SP depending on what the front office thinks is the best route. 3B i don't think makes as much sense before we see how Middlebrooks shakes out. Maybe fix that at mid season if he is still struggling with a trade. I think a viable platoon with Bradley in CF would be Franklin Gutierez. I do not like the thought of Victorino in CF at all.
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