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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 9, 2024 12:39:45 GMT -5
1st bolded: I'm pretty sure the 6th starter in that scenario would be either Whitlock or Houck Add: 2nd bolded: I think this worry is a little overblown. Grissom and/or Reyes is the backup 1B/3B in game, if it's Grissom then Reyes can play second. You also have Rafaela, Hamilton, Valdez as 2B options if you move Grissom and don't like Dalbec. They aren't going to have a starting caliber player waiting on the bench or in AAA to back up every single position. Has Grissom ever played 1B? Yeah I know Atlanta tried him some at 3B and in LF but have never heard of him playing 1B. So yeah as an emergency 3B maybe but don't think you can just toss him over to first like that. Pablo Reyes is 5' 8." He played 1.2 innings at 1b last year, but that is not an optimal situation, especially if the infielders are used to Casas' reach. Casas wants to play every day, and should be tested against LHP more this year, but is probably better off not playing every inning.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 5, 2024 7:36:56 GMT -5
Refsnyder doesn’t exactly project to do a whole lot in the outfield at the moment with O’Neill in the picture and Rafaela lurking - he started 21 games for the Yankees at 1B a lifetime ago in 2016, and last played 1B for Rangers in 2020. If they don’t want to dedicate space to a 1B-only bench guy, maybe he gets some run there a few times a month when Casas needs a breather? I'm probably in the minority, but I am Dalbec believer. If he's used vs LHP and to give Devers or Casas the occasional day off, he can be useful in that role, IMO. I know it's been in small sample sizes but his wRC+ vs LHP through the years: 2023 - 136 2022 - 115 2021 - 128 2020 - 174 Dalbec had 22 PA vs lhp in 2023 and struck out 11 times. 50%. His career stats look seductive, but he has had two periods of about 100-120 PAs in which he hit like Jimmie Fox and the rest of the time has hit like a bad backup middle infielder
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 3, 2024 13:16:54 GMT -5
20/20 seems optimistic given he's had that mark for steals only once (13 each of the last two years and has never hit more than 11 home runs. Even if you think the Gwinnett park limited his hrs last year, it's hard to predict confidently that he will ever hit 20. .280 with a decent number of doubles seems more reasonable. He had 19 HRs and 32 SB in 598 PAs across 3 levels (A+, AA, MLB) in 2022. It’s reasonable to think he’ll grow into more power than he had at 21 too, so I wouldn’t rule it out personally. Thank you for correcting my sloppy stats. I misread the levels.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 2, 2024 8:33:31 GMT -5
Not as likely to be in the rotation in 2024 as 2025, but does anyone see Jack Letter as a trade target? His first two years of pro ball have been rough, but Texas could use an mlb reliever. Do people think he's toast or just in need of fixing?
Confession: I saw this on some clickbait-for-ads site, which implausibly suggested trading two major leaguers for him..
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 2, 2024 8:03:17 GMT -5
Yeah, it can be as simple as both teams having assets they're willing to move and the other having a corresponding need. As Clegg said on the pod, the Braves outwardly saying Grissom was going to split time in left with Kelenic never made sense. They needed starting pitching and found a team motivated to trade for their spare part. Even though they are getting Sale for next to nothing, I'm still surprised given his age and injury history he'd be worth a Grissom type. I'd have imagined they could have done better for the player assuming he's a .280 20/20 guy at 2B. 20/20 seems optimistic given he's had that mark for steals only once (13 each of the last two years and has never hit more than 11 home runs. Even if you think the Gwinnett park limited his hrs last year, it's hard to predict confidently that he will ever hit 20. .280 with a decent number of doubles seems more reasonable.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 10:56:01 GMT -5
Apologies if this has been posted already, but the fact that Grissom hit so well in AAA at age 22 in a tough hitting park is just more cause for optimism:
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 9:39:13 GMT -5
www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/mlb-scouts-take-on-vaughn-grissom-acquired-in-chris-sale-trade.html"We surveyed a number of scouts and evaluators to get their read on what the Red Sox are getting. Reports were mixed. SCOUT 1: “I think he got into the habit of being too fast on some routine plays in the infield and is in need of more game-speed experience. I guess I see him as an offense-first shortstop option who would, ultimately, fit better at second base.” SCOUT 2: “Carries the profile of an offensive second baseman, but his defense can be underwhelming. Still, he should have everyday, run-producing value at Fenway.” SCOUT 3: “I’m luke-warm on him. He really can’t play shortstop, and I see him being limited to either second base or a corner outfield spot. He has contact skills, but the power is not there. For me, not an impact guy.” SCOUT 4: “It’s all about upside and patience with him. He has the talent to be a productive major league bat in the No. 2 hole in need of an OBP upgrade, strike zone (recognition) and walks. Has some defensive versatility and could play at second, short and the outfield, but we had some concerns about his ability to play shortstop. He should be able to hit and play second base. Has a good work ethic and can be tough on himself. Brings some instincts and attitude to develop. He’ll need some time (to develop further) at the major league level, sort of like (Triston) Casas did.” " So the guy we got to play 2b is limited to 2b. Sounds good.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 8:09:51 GMT -5
I can't do a link on my phone but Keith Law just gave his thoughts on the trade and Giolito signing in the Athletic. He saw reasons for both sides to make the deal. On Grissom, he saw him as a 1.5 to 2 WAR player but a big variance on that outcome. He noted Vaughn had an above chase rate outside the zone and had trouble with hitting the change up but liked the line drive rate and thought he would be at least average defensively at second. Keith also mentioned he believed Yorke was now a strong candidate for a trade. On Giolito, he liked him as a good comeback candidate that the Sox pitching coaches could get back to his previous form. Keith Law ($): "On defense, he has struggled at shortstop and projects to be average to a tick above at second base, although I could see him improving at the keystone once he plays there consistently" theathletic.com/5170577/2023/12/30/law-chris-sale-trade-atlanta-boston/
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 8:03:29 GMT -5
I'd frankly rather move on from Paxton and any other huge injury question mark in the rotation. It was fun dreaming on which of the half-dozen huge injury question marks in the 2023 rotation (including Sale and Paxton) would become huge bounce-backs ... until it wasn't. I'll be happy to just leave that form of gambling to other teams. I seriously dont get the Paxton fascination around here. It's like Linus and his blanket. Time to give the blanket to Goodwill. The long-term deal that Linus signed with his blanket turned out very well. Sale is Lucy and the football. If it's Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and Paxton, that's one modest injury question mark in the rotation, after four guys who should give you a lot of innings. Not ideal but not 2023's "Sale and Kluber and call an early Uber"
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 30, 2023 22:19:28 GMT -5
After all this whining it was a pleasure to listen to the sane, well-informed and reasonable comments about Giolito, Sale and Grissom in the quickly done podcast by Chris, Ian, and guest Christ Glegg (who knows more about Grissom than most). Makes me feel optimistic (not giddy but optimistic) about having Giolito in the rotation and Grissom at 2b next year.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 30, 2023 11:42:25 GMT -5
I totally agree with this! “Montgomery is two years older and will likely cost $100 million more. The only season in which he was much better than Giolito was last year, when Giolito fell apart amidst multiple trades and a divorce. The risk here is low; it's a two-year deal and the tax reset last year, so it's just money and especially assuming another SP signing, we probably have the depth to not lose much if Giolito bombs. But meanwhile, Giolito's ceiling is even higher than Montgomery's; he was a legit ace as recently as 2021, and he's only 29. If he kicks butt, the QO will be helpful for re-signing him / insurance if we can't.“ Dealing with trades and a divorce will certainly affect your performance! [...] Do we know if he's met someone?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 29, 2023 14:39:47 GMT -5
With Maldonado (thankfully) off the board and Garver signed, I’ll offer up Gary Sánchez up as a FA target I’d be cool with if they do want to upgrade from Reese. He’s gotten his defense to a fine spot, and he is light years better than McGuire (and even Wong) at the plate. Both Red Sox catchers got some serious luck hitting last year and their xwOBAs call for some serious downside. Hi, can you explain “gotten his defense to a fine spot”?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 28, 2023 21:52:28 GMT -5
I admittedly forgot Amed Rosario existed, but I actually don't hate the idea at all. Depending on whether you look at UZR or or other defensive metrics, and how much you count years prior to last year, he's either poor, average, or really good defensively. Fangraphs/Steamer projecting him for a strong defensive season fwiw. Other than that, he's a RHH with a decent bat (doesn't walk but doesn't strike out a ton either) who should be relatively cheap. Not the worst middle-infield option I've seen. We have a plenty large enough sample to say that Rosario is a horrendous defensive SS: -39 DRS and -57 OAA in his career. At 2B, it's more of an unknown. You have to think he'd be better, and he got some exposure there for the first time with the Dodgers (190 innings) - but even though the defensive metrics leaned positive, it's a small enough sample that I'm not going to put much into them. One interesting wrinkle to his profile - interesting enough that, yes, I'll cite errors - is that 22 of his 34 SS errors (2021-2023) have been throwing errors. That's the 6th most throwing errors of the 23 shortstops who've played 2,500 innings at the position in that window. Meanwhile, for fielding errors (throwing excluded), only Dansby, Correa, and Farmer have made fewer on a per inning played basis. So he's pretty sure handed, has incredible speed and mediocre arm strength (per Statcast), and seemingly awful throwing accuracy at SS. Statcast OAA also highlights that he's been particularly awful moving to his left, racking up -29 OAA in his career moving in that direction. That lends itself to a guy who will probably be a considerably better second baseman than he is shortstop, but whether that means "tolerable" or actually good remains to be seen. One comp I'll throw out there: Marcus Semien was a similarly poor shortstop with Oakland, also with great speed and poor arm strength, tons of throwing errors relative to fielding errors, and notably poor OAA moving to his left. He's since been thought of as a fantastic defender at second base since sliding over. This is very casual research, but I just looked at vid of most of Amed Rosario's 2023 errors at mlb.com. Several are brief bumbles, where the ball pops out and you pick it up and throw to first: from SS, the guy is safe, but 2b is much more forgiving of that. I saw a few throwing errors: a couple sailed over the 1b's head, while some were low. Both of these suggest that it's not crazy to think that he could be a good 2b. There may also be a thing in his head where he hurries too much. If Rosario is your 2b, the backup MI has to be a competent SS, like Pablo Reyes (and not Hamilton or Valdez).
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 27, 2023 7:15:05 GMT -5
Finally remembered to check how big Shota Imanaga is. Turns out he's exactly the same size as YY: 5'10", 176 lbs. Hard pass. I'm reminded of all the hype about Masa Yoshida after we signed him. Dude has mad power! Then you finally see him standing in the box in Fenway and he looks like Pedroia's kid. And then he fell apart halfway through the season. I'm still hopeful that he can find another gear the next four years but if I could go back and sign him to the same contract again, would I? Would you?? Edit: I guess my point is, I'm not interested in NPB stats if the guy posting them is undersized. It seems pretty clear that guys who are well undersized compared to most MLB players can excel in the NPB and I am skeptical that it will translate to MLB for those wee lads. What were you reading? Everything I read said "spray hitter who will hit for average and walk a fair amount and hit for more power than you'd expect given his size." Which is exactly what he did in the first half of the season before wearing down.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 26, 2023 17:48:04 GMT -5
It’s so valuable when people keep making sure no one forgets the words “full throttle” were used. Surely there can be no more interesting analysis than measuring each day what the Red Sox are doing against that time-tested rubric.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 25, 2023 16:02:45 GMT -5
Definitely a bit lost on me is the dislike / hate for Herandez. Then some overlap of the same people that say they take turner on a 1 year deal worth $15 million Hernandez away from Seattle was better than Turner last year offensively. Making Fenway his home would only enhance his stats Herandez will be having his age 31 season, way younger than Turner. Hernandez can actually be serviceable defensively Herandez has more right handed power than Turner. Not sure why we think Devers doesn’t need any sort of actual protection behind him Hernandez at 3 years or less, great. At 4 meh, but I’ll take it. If that does in fact give us the flexibility to trade duran (in line for huge regression) to be traded for an SP… well then all the merrier and reason to sign Hernandez These are all good observations, but if you're ignoring the difference in OBP, both career and last year, between Teoscar and Turner, isn't that the complete reason why you do not understand that some people prefer Turner on a one-year to Teoscar on a 3-4 year deal? Basically Teoscar makes more outs. And many of them are Ks: 31.1% last year, almost 30% for his career, while Turner has always been 15-16%, just over half as many Ks. A guy who makes more outs, many of them without putting the ball in play, arguably does not provide more "protection." Teoscar also hits LHP better, while Turner has almost no splits.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 24, 2023 8:18:32 GMT -5
Thinking you can get Brandon Drury for an unproven relief pitcher with injury concerns and no options who had a 6.33 ERA and ten walks per 9 in AAA last year is interesting. Drury makes all sense in the world for a rebuilding team to move but the Angels often don't make much sense so I'm not convinced he's even available but I agree certainly not for Mata alone. This guy suggests the Angels could move 2b/UTIL Luis Rengifo, who played more 2b than anything last year: "Rengifo, 27 in February, is coming off the best season of his career in 2023. After entering the All Star break with a mediocre .219/.312/.326 slash line, the switch-hitter caught fire down the stretch with a .318/.374/.587 the rest of the way until his season came to an end due to a torn biceps tendon that ended up requiring surgery. With Rengifo expected to be ready for Spring Training, however, it’s easy to see why rival clubs would be interested in his services. Overall, Rengifo posted a solid 114 wRC+ while playing passable defense all around the diamond, with time spent at second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield spots over the course of the 2023 season. That positional flexibility paired with a solid bat would make Rengifo a worthwhile addition for most any team, and the fact that he can be controlled for two seasons surely makes him all the more enticing for rival clubs, and the presence of Brandon Drury could allow the Angels to replace Rengifo at the keystone fairly seamlessly." www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/several-angels-players-reportedly-drawing-trade-interest.html
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 24, 2023 8:04:54 GMT -5
Would you believe me if I told you T eoscar Hernandez had a better sprint speed (per Baseball Savant) last year than Tyler O’Neill, Randy Arozerena, and Jazz Chrisholm? He’s 82th percentile in sprint speed. I didn’t remember him being much of a speed demon in Toronto because it hasn’t translated into a lot of stolen bases or what not. Along with O’Neill, another guy in terms of “getting more athletic” that Cora has emphasized at various points? He brings something we do not have now or in the near term pipeline and will only cost money. I said this a while ago when we first started talking about the "spring speed" stat. Baseball savant says 'Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window” on individual plays.' That has always seemed to me to be a terrible way to measure the speed of a baseball player.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2023 9:34:35 GMT -5
I’m going to try again with Yammamoto off the market. This time I will also try to be UNDER the luxury tax threshold - personally I think it makes more sense to go over next year (with Sale off the books and another year of prospect development) rather than this year with a team that looks like it still has a long way to go. Per Red Sox Payroll, $47M to spend. MOVES: • Red Sox acquire Brandon Drury ($8.5M AAV) for Brayan Mata • Red Sox sign Jordan Montgomery 6/$150M w. Opt Out after Y3 ($25M AAV) • Red Sox acquire Braxton Garret (pre-arb) for Jarren Duran, Nick Yorke, and Tanner Houck • Red Sox sign Justin Turner (to the same exact contract he had last year, ~$12M AAV) [...] Thinking you can get Brandon Drury for an unproven relief pitcher with injury concerns and no options who had a 6.33 ERA and ten walks per 9 in AAA last year is interesting.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 21, 2023 9:20:35 GMT -5
Waiting pessimistically for the Yamamoto decision reminds me how surprised I was when Yoan Moncada picked the Red Sox. That was actually a very weird day for me, an amazing day, and since there is no news today I’m going to talk about that day a little. Feel free to skip!
Monday Feb 23, 2015: I woke up to a Phillie fan friend’s text saying “where are you going to play Moncada?” Wow, totally surprised. Big money! I start reading about him, then I get a text from my Department chair, about another sort of “free agent”: we had a chance to get a guy whose specialty is exactly what we need. Who do I read about, the Cuban second baseman or the Greek tragedy/comedy guy? Both! Couple hours later, I get an email from a musician friend: her long-awaited first full-length CD is done and can she bring a copy to my office? Yes! She does and I listen while preparing to teach. I teach. Later I get a surprise call on my cell phone: it’s the chair of the university Board of Trustees, calling to talk to me about an email I had written to them. I’m not an administrator or very important; no reason for him to call me, but he lets me basically yell at him for over an hour for things the Board has done recently. “I’m not a stupid [member of that party],” he says, and I say “well if you don’t want people to think you are a stupid [member of that party], you shouldn’t talk like a stupid [member of that party].” The call finally ends. I go down to the main office to tell them I just got that call. They say “who do you think gave him your number?” I’m standing there and my phone rings, and I look at the name and I immediately know my student has gotten a plum tenure-track job; I talk to him and yes, that’s it. Then I go to a great yoga class. So it’s Yoan Moncada, a chance for a great new colleague, a great new CD from a friend, a call from the chair of the BOT, and a tenure-track job for my student, then yoga. I have a special beer suitable only for World Series and Super Bowl wins and students getting jobs: I have it at home. I’ve already listened to the music CD, but I go home to listen to it on the good speakers, with the job-celebrating beer. Then the musician sends me the lyrics (not included in the CD) so I listen again. Album was/is great, Moncada got us our closer for the 2018 WS clincher, my student got tenured, and the colleague we hired has been great. No comment on our Board of Trustees.
Good day! I call it my Amazing Monday. Maybe I should buy some of that beer. No Monday yoga for Xmas next week, but there is a class Jan 1.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2023 9:58:13 GMT -5
"while multiple teams in the mix have a Japanese player currently on their roster, the Red Sox can also claim three Japanese-speaking members of their medical staff in strength coach Kiyoshi Momose — who spent time with Yamamoto’s former Orix Buffaloes teammate and current Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida in Japan this offseason — assistant trainer Masai Takahashi and massage therapist Shinichiro Uchikubo. The Mets and Yankees do not have Japanese-speaking medical personnel currently on staff." theathletic.com/5150202/2023/12/20/red-sox-yoshinobu-yamamoto-free-agency/?access_token=7660182&redirected=1
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 19, 2023 20:18:24 GMT -5
I'm disappointed that he didn't visit Fenway because I think America's Most Beloved Ballpark is a real recruiting tool. I seem to recall that Boras didn't want Dice-K visiting Fenway while he was trying to extract as much money as possible out of the Red Sox because he thought it might soften Dice-K's resolve. I also remember that when Pokey Reese first visited Fenway just after signing during the 2003-'04 off-season, he asked to go out and see the park one more time before his ride back to Logan. I think he said something like "That was pretty cool" when he asked. I don't think that seeing Fenway would have clinched the deal or that not seeing it eliminates us. But in the spirit of every little bit helps, I wish Yama had seen the Lyrical Little Bandbox of a Ballpark. Do they not have a professionally produced video that reproduces the feeling of coming up the stairs to see all the green of Fenway, combined with shots of a full Fenway cheering for the team in 04, 07 (Dice-K 18-3), 13 ("three little birds" + Koji), and 18 (last out)?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 17, 2023 14:39:28 GMT -5
With the Padres' high-spending owner now gone and the heirs looking to pare payroll, I'm wondering if the Sox can acquire Zander or Tatis plus $10M a year salary paid by SD for #10-15 prospect or two? Part of this is silliness. But, y'know, it would solve some issues near term and they could always trade Xander in 3 years, pay $5M a year of his salary for the rest of the contract and still gain value. I would think trading some Useful Pieces for Xander at that price would be a win-win, depending on how close SD is to their financial goals.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 16, 2023 8:36:33 GMT -5
Quotes from a year ago, before the Devers extension:
-I am basically approaching this offseason from the likely scenario where John Henry doesn't want to give out $300 million.
-According to multiple league sources, the Red Sox and Devers are "galaxies apart" in their contract negotiations.
- They need to just stop pretending and trade him. It's obvious they won't sign him. The team is barely good enough to contend as is anyway.
-I know what our payroll is, but why does it feel like we’re the Oakland A’s when it comes to re-signing our own guys?
-There is no way the Sox are re-signing Devers. They will parrot the same stupid talking points they did this year for Bogey, etc. There is also no way the Red Sox trade Devers. They will say all year their intention is to extend him, and then when he leaves in free agency feign sadness over not being able to come to a deal. Bloom is a neutered puppy and John Henry wears Blooms balls around his neck to remind him of such.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 12, 2023 8:58:40 GMT -5
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