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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 1, 2024 10:36:08 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 27, 2024 15:43:22 GMT -5
I dont necessarily want Merrifield but it's getting to the point where I think he could be had for a season and as a RHH who can play 2nd and OF he could be a good fit. Insurance for grissom and he's probably better than refsnyder as a 5th OF. Refsynder had a .365 OBP last year, .384 the year before.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 24, 2024 20:51:43 GMT -5
If people are in a fighting mood: Ellis Burks was better than Bernie Williams or Jim Rice. Once they let Harold Baines in, the argument for just about everyone got stronger. I’m still trying to figure out why Rice got in and Dwight Evans never did. Two things that hurt Evans are 1) that he solidified people’s image of him as a so-so hitter early in his career before becoming better later (sort of the opposite of Rice), and 2) that he had better second halves than first halves so made fewer all-star teams.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 21, 2024 21:09:57 GMT -5
Whitlock should be in the pen. It’s where he had his best season Pedro Martinez' year as a reliever for the Dodgers was arguably better than his next three years as a starter. After four years, the bullpen was arguably "where he had his best season." Then he took his Great Leap Forward
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 20, 2024 7:00:54 GMT -5
Being a top 10 first base prospect is like being a beauty finalist in a fat girl beauty contest, Still, I have hopes for Blaze to put it all together and be a part of the Sox future. Both Devers and Casas bat left. Really??? Fat shaming??? Those I know are very beautiful. What’s the problem??? Hope to see you soon blaze. Being a top ten first base prospect is like being a beauty contest finalist in a contest between people who make fun of heavy people on the internet.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 19, 2024 6:57:48 GMT -5
Duvall is not schwarber at 1B, he’s played 260 career innings there and grades out well. He’d be perfectly fine as the backup option there. A butcher in the OF like Schwarber is not likely to be good at 1b. A Gold Glove LF is a much better bet to be a competent backup 1b. And the ability to play 1b does not deteriorate faster than the ability to pay corner OF.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 15, 2024 16:41:18 GMT -5
Everyone else has Carrasquel as 6' 4", no?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 12, 2024 9:55:43 GMT -5
I don't care about the third year. If we don't have enough young stars in 2026 to let them carry an underperforming or even platoon DH, or pay 2/3 of his salary in a trade, it's not going to matter.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 10, 2024 7:01:07 GMT -5
I no longer think the Red Sox are going to make any moves other than middling acquisitions. They are going to wait until the trade deadline to trade for young pitching when they will have Mayer, Bleis and Romero healthy and raking, plus some younger prospects shining, and will know whether Grissom is a keeper. 2025.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 9, 2024 12:39:45 GMT -5
1st bolded: I'm pretty sure the 6th starter in that scenario would be either Whitlock or Houck Add: 2nd bolded: I think this worry is a little overblown. Grissom and/or Reyes is the backup 1B/3B in game, if it's Grissom then Reyes can play second. You also have Rafaela, Hamilton, Valdez as 2B options if you move Grissom and don't like Dalbec. They aren't going to have a starting caliber player waiting on the bench or in AAA to back up every single position. Has Grissom ever played 1B? Yeah I know Atlanta tried him some at 3B and in LF but have never heard of him playing 1B. So yeah as an emergency 3B maybe but don't think you can just toss him over to first like that. Pablo Reyes is 5' 8." He played 1.2 innings at 1b last year, but that is not an optimal situation, especially if the infielders are used to Casas' reach. Casas wants to play every day, and should be tested against LHP more this year, but is probably better off not playing every inning.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 5, 2024 7:36:56 GMT -5
Refsnyder doesn’t exactly project to do a whole lot in the outfield at the moment with O’Neill in the picture and Rafaela lurking - he started 21 games for the Yankees at 1B a lifetime ago in 2016, and last played 1B for Rangers in 2020. If they don’t want to dedicate space to a 1B-only bench guy, maybe he gets some run there a few times a month when Casas needs a breather? I'm probably in the minority, but I am Dalbec believer. If he's used vs LHP and to give Devers or Casas the occasional day off, he can be useful in that role, IMO. I know it's been in small sample sizes but his wRC+ vs LHP through the years: 2023 - 136 2022 - 115 2021 - 128 2020 - 174 Dalbec had 22 PA vs lhp in 2023 and struck out 11 times. 50%. His career stats look seductive, but he has had two periods of about 100-120 PAs in which he hit like Jimmie Fox and the rest of the time has hit like a bad backup middle infielder
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 3, 2024 13:16:54 GMT -5
20/20 seems optimistic given he's had that mark for steals only once (13 each of the last two years and has never hit more than 11 home runs. Even if you think the Gwinnett park limited his hrs last year, it's hard to predict confidently that he will ever hit 20. .280 with a decent number of doubles seems more reasonable. He had 19 HRs and 32 SB in 598 PAs across 3 levels (A+, AA, MLB) in 2022. It’s reasonable to think he’ll grow into more power than he had at 21 too, so I wouldn’t rule it out personally. Thank you for correcting my sloppy stats. I misread the levels.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 2, 2024 8:33:31 GMT -5
Not as likely to be in the rotation in 2024 as 2025, but does anyone see Jack Letter as a trade target? His first two years of pro ball have been rough, but Texas could use an mlb reliever. Do people think he's toast or just in need of fixing?
Confession: I saw this on some clickbait-for-ads site, which implausibly suggested trading two major leaguers for him..
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 2, 2024 8:03:17 GMT -5
Yeah, it can be as simple as both teams having assets they're willing to move and the other having a corresponding need. As Clegg said on the pod, the Braves outwardly saying Grissom was going to split time in left with Kelenic never made sense. They needed starting pitching and found a team motivated to trade for their spare part. Even though they are getting Sale for next to nothing, I'm still surprised given his age and injury history he'd be worth a Grissom type. I'd have imagined they could have done better for the player assuming he's a .280 20/20 guy at 2B. 20/20 seems optimistic given he's had that mark for steals only once (13 each of the last two years and has never hit more than 11 home runs. Even if you think the Gwinnett park limited his hrs last year, it's hard to predict confidently that he will ever hit 20. .280 with a decent number of doubles seems more reasonable.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 10:56:01 GMT -5
Apologies if this has been posted already, but the fact that Grissom hit so well in AAA at age 22 in a tough hitting park is just more cause for optimism:
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 9:39:13 GMT -5
www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/mlb-scouts-take-on-vaughn-grissom-acquired-in-chris-sale-trade.html"We surveyed a number of scouts and evaluators to get their read on what the Red Sox are getting. Reports were mixed. SCOUT 1: “I think he got into the habit of being too fast on some routine plays in the infield and is in need of more game-speed experience. I guess I see him as an offense-first shortstop option who would, ultimately, fit better at second base.” SCOUT 2: “Carries the profile of an offensive second baseman, but his defense can be underwhelming. Still, he should have everyday, run-producing value at Fenway.” SCOUT 3: “I’m luke-warm on him. He really can’t play shortstop, and I see him being limited to either second base or a corner outfield spot. He has contact skills, but the power is not there. For me, not an impact guy.” SCOUT 4: “It’s all about upside and patience with him. He has the talent to be a productive major league bat in the No. 2 hole in need of an OBP upgrade, strike zone (recognition) and walks. Has some defensive versatility and could play at second, short and the outfield, but we had some concerns about his ability to play shortstop. He should be able to hit and play second base. Has a good work ethic and can be tough on himself. Brings some instincts and attitude to develop. He’ll need some time (to develop further) at the major league level, sort of like (Triston) Casas did.” " So the guy we got to play 2b is limited to 2b. Sounds good.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 8:09:51 GMT -5
I can't do a link on my phone but Keith Law just gave his thoughts on the trade and Giolito signing in the Athletic. He saw reasons for both sides to make the deal. On Grissom, he saw him as a 1.5 to 2 WAR player but a big variance on that outcome. He noted Vaughn had an above chase rate outside the zone and had trouble with hitting the change up but liked the line drive rate and thought he would be at least average defensively at second. Keith also mentioned he believed Yorke was now a strong candidate for a trade. On Giolito, he liked him as a good comeback candidate that the Sox pitching coaches could get back to his previous form. Keith Law ($): "On defense, he has struggled at shortstop and projects to be average to a tick above at second base, although I could see him improving at the keystone once he plays there consistently" theathletic.com/5170577/2023/12/30/law-chris-sale-trade-atlanta-boston/
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 31, 2023 8:03:29 GMT -5
I'd frankly rather move on from Paxton and any other huge injury question mark in the rotation. It was fun dreaming on which of the half-dozen huge injury question marks in the 2023 rotation (including Sale and Paxton) would become huge bounce-backs ... until it wasn't. I'll be happy to just leave that form of gambling to other teams. I seriously dont get the Paxton fascination around here. It's like Linus and his blanket. Time to give the blanket to Goodwill. The long-term deal that Linus signed with his blanket turned out very well. Sale is Lucy and the football. If it's Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and Paxton, that's one modest injury question mark in the rotation, after four guys who should give you a lot of innings. Not ideal but not 2023's "Sale and Kluber and call an early Uber"
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 30, 2023 22:19:28 GMT -5
After all this whining it was a pleasure to listen to the sane, well-informed and reasonable comments about Giolito, Sale and Grissom in the quickly done podcast by Chris, Ian, and guest Christ Glegg (who knows more about Grissom than most). Makes me feel optimistic (not giddy but optimistic) about having Giolito in the rotation and Grissom at 2b next year.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 30, 2023 11:42:25 GMT -5
I totally agree with this! “Montgomery is two years older and will likely cost $100 million more. The only season in which he was much better than Giolito was last year, when Giolito fell apart amidst multiple trades and a divorce. The risk here is low; it's a two-year deal and the tax reset last year, so it's just money and especially assuming another SP signing, we probably have the depth to not lose much if Giolito bombs. But meanwhile, Giolito's ceiling is even higher than Montgomery's; he was a legit ace as recently as 2021, and he's only 29. If he kicks butt, the QO will be helpful for re-signing him / insurance if we can't.“ Dealing with trades and a divorce will certainly affect your performance! [...] Do we know if he's met someone?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 29, 2023 14:39:47 GMT -5
With Maldonado (thankfully) off the board and Garver signed, I’ll offer up Gary Sánchez up as a FA target I’d be cool with if they do want to upgrade from Reese. He’s gotten his defense to a fine spot, and he is light years better than McGuire (and even Wong) at the plate. Both Red Sox catchers got some serious luck hitting last year and their xwOBAs call for some serious downside. Hi, can you explain “gotten his defense to a fine spot”?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 28, 2023 21:52:28 GMT -5
I admittedly forgot Amed Rosario existed, but I actually don't hate the idea at all. Depending on whether you look at UZR or or other defensive metrics, and how much you count years prior to last year, he's either poor, average, or really good defensively. Fangraphs/Steamer projecting him for a strong defensive season fwiw. Other than that, he's a RHH with a decent bat (doesn't walk but doesn't strike out a ton either) who should be relatively cheap. Not the worst middle-infield option I've seen. We have a plenty large enough sample to say that Rosario is a horrendous defensive SS: -39 DRS and -57 OAA in his career. At 2B, it's more of an unknown. You have to think he'd be better, and he got some exposure there for the first time with the Dodgers (190 innings) - but even though the defensive metrics leaned positive, it's a small enough sample that I'm not going to put much into them. One interesting wrinkle to his profile - interesting enough that, yes, I'll cite errors - is that 22 of his 34 SS errors (2021-2023) have been throwing errors. That's the 6th most throwing errors of the 23 shortstops who've played 2,500 innings at the position in that window. Meanwhile, for fielding errors (throwing excluded), only Dansby, Correa, and Farmer have made fewer on a per inning played basis. So he's pretty sure handed, has incredible speed and mediocre arm strength (per Statcast), and seemingly awful throwing accuracy at SS. Statcast OAA also highlights that he's been particularly awful moving to his left, racking up -29 OAA in his career moving in that direction. That lends itself to a guy who will probably be a considerably better second baseman than he is shortstop, but whether that means "tolerable" or actually good remains to be seen. One comp I'll throw out there: Marcus Semien was a similarly poor shortstop with Oakland, also with great speed and poor arm strength, tons of throwing errors relative to fielding errors, and notably poor OAA moving to his left. He's since been thought of as a fantastic defender at second base since sliding over. This is very casual research, but I just looked at vid of most of Amed Rosario's 2023 errors at mlb.com. Several are brief bumbles, where the ball pops out and you pick it up and throw to first: from SS, the guy is safe, but 2b is much more forgiving of that. I saw a few throwing errors: a couple sailed over the 1b's head, while some were low. Both of these suggest that it's not crazy to think that he could be a good 2b. There may also be a thing in his head where he hurries too much. If Rosario is your 2b, the backup MI has to be a competent SS, like Pablo Reyes (and not Hamilton or Valdez).
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 27, 2023 7:15:05 GMT -5
Finally remembered to check how big Shota Imanaga is. Turns out he's exactly the same size as YY: 5'10", 176 lbs. Hard pass. I'm reminded of all the hype about Masa Yoshida after we signed him. Dude has mad power! Then you finally see him standing in the box in Fenway and he looks like Pedroia's kid. And then he fell apart halfway through the season. I'm still hopeful that he can find another gear the next four years but if I could go back and sign him to the same contract again, would I? Would you?? Edit: I guess my point is, I'm not interested in NPB stats if the guy posting them is undersized. It seems pretty clear that guys who are well undersized compared to most MLB players can excel in the NPB and I am skeptical that it will translate to MLB for those wee lads. What were you reading? Everything I read said "spray hitter who will hit for average and walk a fair amount and hit for more power than you'd expect given his size." Which is exactly what he did in the first half of the season before wearing down.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 26, 2023 17:48:04 GMT -5
It’s so valuable when people keep making sure no one forgets the words “full throttle” were used. Surely there can be no more interesting analysis than measuring each day what the Red Sox are doing against that time-tested rubric.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 25, 2023 16:02:45 GMT -5
Definitely a bit lost on me is the dislike / hate for Herandez. Then some overlap of the same people that say they take turner on a 1 year deal worth $15 million Hernandez away from Seattle was better than Turner last year offensively. Making Fenway his home would only enhance his stats Herandez will be having his age 31 season, way younger than Turner. Hernandez can actually be serviceable defensively Herandez has more right handed power than Turner. Not sure why we think Devers doesn’t need any sort of actual protection behind him Hernandez at 3 years or less, great. At 4 meh, but I’ll take it. If that does in fact give us the flexibility to trade duran (in line for huge regression) to be traded for an SP… well then all the merrier and reason to sign Hernandez These are all good observations, but if you're ignoring the difference in OBP, both career and last year, between Teoscar and Turner, isn't that the complete reason why you do not understand that some people prefer Turner on a one-year to Teoscar on a 3-4 year deal? Basically Teoscar makes more outs. And many of them are Ks: 31.1% last year, almost 30% for his career, while Turner has always been 15-16%, just over half as many Ks. A guy who makes more outs, many of them without putting the ball in play, arguably does not provide more "protection." Teoscar also hits LHP better, while Turner has almost no splits.
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