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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 28, 2024 8:54:33 GMT -5
Today's 1b is 5' 8" Pablo Reyes, nine inches shorter than Tristan Casas.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,971
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Post by jimoh on Feb 27, 2024 20:39:10 GMT -5
Mlbtraderumors chat “Montgomery prediction? 2:10 Please? Steve Adams 2:12 I think he'll end up in Boston ultimately, probably at a lesser guarantee than many expected entering the offseason. The MLBTR staff made new predictions for the top remaining FAs yesterday and sent them out to our Front Office subscribers. I went five years and $120MM in Boston for Monty, with a similar opt-out/club option setup to the one Trevor Story has. So after year two or three, Montgomery can opt out but the Sox can void it by tacking on another year at $25MM or so.” www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-2-27-24-17731.html
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 27, 2024 16:46:18 GMT -5
Purchased from Tyler Chicken: BSOHL
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 27, 2024 14:30:43 GMT -5
Nice first at-bat of Rafaela. Second at bat: fouls off a pitch in the zone, then whiffs on two pitches well out of the zone.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 27, 2024 13:13:31 GMT -5
A reminder that statcast is available for today's game ( link). thanks! Top Exit Velocity MPH Ceddanne Rafaela 99.9
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,971
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Post by jimoh on Feb 26, 2024 8:42:56 GMT -5
Interesting to hear Giolito say yesterday that watching and talking to Kutter Crawford was helpful to him in getting back the deceptiveness in his motion, the way he hides the ball.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 26, 2024 8:04:57 GMT -5
That Montgomery “could be part of the staff rotation” is a very weird statement, the kind of thing you’d expect a bot to say.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 24, 2024 13:17:24 GMT -5
Rafaela came up a little "short"
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2024 15:24:35 GMT -5
So is Bobby a lock to make the team or does he have competition? All subject to change, but at this point, I'd say he pretty much does have a spot. They need power right handed bats, they could use additional backup at 1B, 3B. And if he can fill in in the outfield, it's almost a no brainer. Now if they trade an outfielder - I'd say that makes it more of an open question. Ex. if they traded Duran that pretty much guarantees that Rafaela starts the year in the majors and/or they sign a powerish right handed bat (Duvall/Pham) and then Big Bob's value decreases pretty heftily. The problem with Dalbec as 4th bench person is that the only backup SSs are he and Grissom: no Reyes, nobody good at D. Grissom at SS and Valdez at 2b is not a good ninth inning look. Will Story play every inning?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2024 9:36:34 GMT -5
I thought this was an interesting detail in a recent story in The Athletic, esp. the attention to NRI guys: "Once Breslow signed off on the pitching plans, Bailey and Willard brought in the rest of the Run Prevention Unit to ensure the individual player plans were strengthened by the on-field perspective and experience of Varitek and Walker and backed by data from Miller and Rose. Walker estimates the group spent hundreds of hours this winter not only formulating plans for each pitcher on the 40-man roster — 22 in total — but also for 11 non-roster invitees." theathletic.com/5291591/2024/02/22/red-sox-andrew-bailey-run-prevention-unit/?access_token=7660182&redirected=1
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,971
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2024 7:10:19 GMT -5
best case: -Bello, Pivetta, Gio, Monty all win 15+ games -Whitlock remains healthy and shows his 2022 form -Mata starts to realize his potential out of the pen -Casas builds on year 1 -Grissom plays 150 games like he played 40 games in 2022 -Story is 85% of what he was for the Rockies -Devers is in great shape and healthy -Massa plays a full season like he did the first half os the 2023 season -Duran is healthy for 150 games and plays like he did over 100 games in 2023 -Cedanne plays gg CF -Mayer, Teel, Anthony all stay healthy and all get some time in Boston this season -the front office does not spend foolishly and is primed to have the ability to spend big once the young players are ready to take off pie in the sky? Your pie is even missing a piece: "O'Neill is healthy and flexible and hits, hits for power, and play GG defense."
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 21, 2024 11:35:48 GMT -5
Lineup Best Worst Duran: .295.346.482/ .828 or .250.300.380/.680 Devers: .311.361.555/ .916 or .271.351.500/.851 Story: .251.329.471/ .801 or .238.303.434/.737 Casas: .317.417.617/1.034 or .225.330.398/.728 O'Neill .286.352.560/ .912 or .228.308.392/.700 Yoshida .316.382.492/ .874 or .289.338.425/.763 Grissom .316.388.474/ .862 or .280.313.347/.659 Wong .240.298.400/ .698 or .235.288.385/.673 Abreu .316.388.474/ .862 or .258.331.400/.731edited for clarity (because I like the way the thinking works).
But also, if that's Story's best-case, we're in more trouble than I thought... I hope someone else shows up to hit third, that's for sure.
Thanks for the columns. It was hard to guess for Story because of Coors. Most of these figures are the best and worst a guy has done for a season or half a season, with some guessing thrown in. For Story it seemed silly to picks years when he was 26 or 25 and playing in Coors and finishing 8th or 11 or 12 in MVP. The .251 .329 .471 .801 is his last year at Coors, when the elbow may have been affecting his hitting too. But he did hit 24 HRs that year and steal 20 bases. If Story hits .251 .329 .471 .801 with 20 SBs and GG defense, he'll be a very good player, but as you say not the guy to hit between Devers and Casas, though he is lifetime .299 .372 .601 .973 vs LHP, and .253 .330 .517 .847 in 2022.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,971
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Post by jimoh on Feb 21, 2024 9:14:14 GMT -5
Lineup. Best Worst Duran: .295.346.482/828 or 250.300.380/680 Devers: .311.361.555/916 or .271.351.500/.851 Story: .251.329.471.801 or .238.303.434/.737 Casas: .317.417.617/1.034 or .225 .330.398/.728 O'Neill .286.352.560/.912 or .228.308.392/.700 Yoshida .316.382.492/.874 or .289.338.425/.763 Grissom .316.388.474/.862 or.280.313.347/.659 Wong .240.298.400/698 or .235.288.385/.673 Abreu .316.388.474/.862 or .258.331.400/.731
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,971
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Post by jimoh on Feb 20, 2024 20:13:33 GMT -5
Don't want to detract too much, but the best bullpen belonged to the 2008 Red Sox. You had prime Papelbon, Bard, Okajima, a young and upcoming Manny Delcarmen. They acquired a most likely future HOF in Billy Wagner in August, too. It's a toss up which is the best Sox team to not win a world series between 2003 and 2008. Wagner was in 09. They also had Ramon Ramirez that season, who was pretty damn good IIRC. Feel like Okajima might have been falling off by that point Wagner was only in 15 games but it was a brilliant trade because he brought us two supplemental first round picks when he left (they were duds, alas)
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 19, 2024 9:11:25 GMT -5
TJ in August 2023 means pitching in... August 2024? September? Is he a quick healer? Does this really have any impact on who will be the closer on April 2024? Edit: I see someone has said above he should be back by the trade deadline.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 14, 2024 9:56:06 GMT -5
Here is another one of my periodic reminders about how the punishment that made us have zero regular international signings in 2016-17 also hurt us. In 2018 we signed Bello, as well as Rafaela and a few other guys still in the system. Imagine if we had a couple of guys similar to but 12 months older than Bello and Rafaela. (With the caveat that Ian's study shows that few good pitchers have been Latin American signings lately.) www.soxprospects.com/international21.htm#2016
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 13, 2024 20:51:30 GMT -5
"The Red Sox, according to sources, have kept tabs on Montgomery’s market. But if it does collapse in a way that makes him available on a shorter-term deal, there’s an industry belief that he’d be more likely to head to a team with a better chance to win in 2024 than the Red Sox."
Jordan's wife is doing her one year residency in Boston, so logically you'd think the Sox would have a leg up on a short term deal. Scottie B says Not So Fast, My Friend.
Honestly, this dance is very tiresome now that spring training has already started. Just sign somewhere already dude
I certainly would not bet much on the Red Sox to sign him (although the “kept tabs” line suggests more interest than the zero % some beat writers have basically been saying). That said… who exactly is the contender ready to pounce on Jordan Montgomery when he lowers his asking price? LAD, ATL and HOU don’t need him. NYY traded him previously for a guy in a walking boot. SEA and TOR have pretty robust rotations already. TEX seemingly isn’t comfortable with the financial result of their TV ruling, and have Scherzer, DeGrom, and Mahle coming back their summer to boot. Philly seems like the most likely to say YOLO with Dombrowski, especially if they don’t get a Wheeler extension done. But I’m not sure where else these “industry sources” expect him to go. I forget where I just read this, but with their tax situation, for the Phillies to add $25M to their budget would actually cost them $41 or 44M.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 13, 2024 16:13:42 GMT -5
Not a movie, though some people tried to make a movie, is this Stephen King psychological horror novel: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Girl_Who_Loved_Tom_Gordon?wprov=sfti1I think I used to blame this novel and its curse for Gordon’s serious injury, and that our lives would have been better if it had been The Girl Who Loved Mariano Rivera.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2024 19:51:17 GMT -5
hi, everything you say is true but I think you’re missing what I was saying: we all know he is better at cf, but Law is saying not only that he’d be better at 2b than SS, but that he has actually been moved from SS to 2b, when the record shows he has played more SS than 2b and has only played a tiny amount of 2b. Disappointed that he didn’t address this when you asked (assuming jimoh and Jim O. are one and the same). Presumably he just avoided it because he realized it was indeed incorrect. yeah that’s me. Weirdly, he doubled down, responding to my question by saying “moving to 2b AND cf”, and so I repeated that he was just wrong, adding the details that that he played zero innings at 2b in milb and 5 9-inning games at SS in mlb but only 11 innings at 2b, despite the Sox’ hole there.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 9, 2024 9:50:31 GMT -5
Interesting new piece on the possibilities for Their and Breslow: "Epstein’s biggest contributions, insofar as the Red Sox are concerned, may well be his knowledge of how the team’s ownership works and thinks. He has the cachet and experience to push back, or perhaps even prod them into action. “It would be silly for me not to pose such questions as, ‘Hey, this is an idea I have. No. 1, what are your thoughts on it? But also, No. 2, what do you think Sam (Kennedy), or John (Henry) or Tom (Werner) or Mike (Gordon) might feel about this?’ " said Breslow. “Often times, he encourages me to just communicate directly with them. ‘Why don’t you ask?’ Which is very often the best advice one can give."" www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/02/mlb-notebook-reunited-with-theo-epstein-craig-breslow-details-how-theyll-work-together.html
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2024 18:19:23 GMT -5
All these ideas for RHH platoon partners seem good, but there is still the problem of looking at the lineup and putting someone between Devers and Casas who could punish teams that bring in a lhrp in the late innings. Story could grow into that role if he finds himself, but both he and every other choice seems weak.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2024 6:56:09 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope? See my previous post ...
But the larger issue is this. The Red Sox literally have an infinitely better set of information on Dalbec's great AAA year than we do, since we have only the rawest data, and know nothing about what he was working on or might have modified or changed.
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period.
And since you suddenly seem to be a fan of small samples, the first thing he did upon his his September recall was outhit Devers and Casas for a week. So it's fairly evident that he still has the upside he always has; the difference is an apparent major improvement in staying this last year.
That Dalbec is the backup 1B / 3B is as clear as the starters at those positions.
So one might ask rhetorically, how does this post fit in a thread named "Predicting the 2024 Opening Say Roster?"
I am more than half serious about this: someone should start a thread called "Let's Start Bitching Now!" Those of us with a low tolerance for pointless complaints will be grateful.
Yeah the first thing Dalbec did in September was "outhit Devers and Casas for [5 days]." The second thing he did was get 1 single and 1 walk in his last 21 PA of the year with 14 strikeouts. 14 strikeouts in 21 PA!!! 66% K rate. Similar to how he started the year with two singles and a walk, then in his next 8 games over three call-ups went 0-12 with two walks and 8 strikeouts. 57% K rate over those 14 PA. Yeah it really looks like he figured out how to stop that hot-streak/cold-streak problem. His improvement in 2023 was that at age 28 he had learned how to punish AAA pitching in a hitter's park.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 6, 2024 12:38:59 GMT -5
This comment of Law's seems curious: Rafaela "started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus." Inconsistent at short? Has anyone else heard that? "Ended up moving to second," where he's spent the least time, despite a vacancy in mlb? I'd sort of agree with that view, if not the phrasing. On balance, he's still above average there. When you have an excellent defensive outfielder (and second baseman) who is above average at short, that's obviously a value-add, but I'd take Mayer's defense at shortstop over Rafaela's. (I've also never thought he was quite an 80 defender in the outfield, but there's a lot of room to be a worse defender than Bradley and still clearly be an asset.) hi, everything you say is true but I think you’re missing what I was saying: we all know he is better at cf, but Law is saying not only that he’d be better at 2b than SS, but that he has actually been moved from SS to 2b, when the record shows he has played more SS than 2b and has only played a tiny amount of 2b.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 6, 2024 7:50:27 GMT -5
This comment of Law's seems curious: Rafaela "started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus." Inconsistent at short? Has anyone else heard that? "Ended up moving to second," where he's spent the least time, despite a vacancy in mlb?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 3, 2024 10:22:49 GMT -5
Right, John Henry said, yes Craig you must wait one month to trade cash considerations for Heineman. Or we're going to announce that Epstein is a new minority owner and you must wait for him to ok all future decisions. You guys are just throwing teenage angst against a wall at this point. And you're just carrying water for ownership. What's worse? Your point would also carry more weight had Sam Kennedy not said a single word a few weeks back. He said payroll is probably going to be lower. Thats not a Breslow issue. I hate a lot of this back and forth and comments not on baseball but on others' comment, but still: why does Sam Kennedy's comment on payroll have to be prescriptive ("Sox cannot spend") rather the descriptive ("from what I hear, Breslow does not think there are assets out there worth getting close to the cap on")?
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