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Post by jchang on Jul 17, 2021 11:38:10 GMT -5
Guessing here, suppose I accept a job in Florida. I go to Florida, declare residency, get paid. Then I am a Florida resident working in Florida and paid in Florida. I think Mayer will report to Florida Meant to quote ematz Ha that'd be the smart move for sure if that's how it works. No income tax in FL vs high income tax in MA or CA. Several million dollar difference which was why I'm a bit curious how it works. What a coincidence. I just thought Ft Myers was the right place for Mayer, and this decision was made completely independent of any tax considerations.
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Post by jchang on Jul 17, 2021 11:02:50 GMT -5
Guessing here, suppose I accept a job in Florida. I go to Florida, declare residency, get paid. Then I am a Florida resident working in Florida and paid in Florida. I think Mayer will report to Florida Meant to quote ematz
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Post by jchang on Jul 12, 2021 13:53:23 GMT -5
presumably, Mayer and Fabian were promised somewhat over slot that we need go under at 3 & 4
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Post by jchang on Jul 12, 2021 12:47:22 GMT -5
International brothers definitely have. E.g. Xander and his twin brother...
Yup, I remember that! I think the Sox did the same with the Basabe brothers too? That's why I'm wondering if they try it in the draft too. There would be an issue if both are signed for slot, with the second brother getting much higher than would have been expected?
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Post by jchang on Jul 12, 2021 9:43:18 GMT -5
I don't think they care @ 40, but once they're picking guys ranked in the 100's, it's gonna be tough to find at bats for them in the low minors if they're an OF or SS. Honestly, I'd draft 19 straight pitchers and figure 0-1 will be elite 0-3 will be good 2-5 will be average and the rest will never see the Show. I like my odds. Lets say there are 8 elite caliber pitchers in the MLB, including pitchers who were once elite and now just all-star. Lets also say the elite pitcher has a career of 16 years (much higher than average player career length). Then an elite pitcher comes every 2 years. Lets say that 2 out 3 elite pitchers are drafted very high in the first round (this should not be difficult to check). this means the probability of finding an elite pitcher outside of the top few picks is 1 out of 6 per year over 30 teams (3 new elite pitchers over 6 years, 2 are high picks, 1 outside of top few) - so the probability of a single team finding an elite pitcher outside of the top few pick is 1 /180 (not that I a trying to discourage people from dreaming) We could say there 60 good pitchers in the MLB (average of 2 per team) but I would prefer to say 90 (3 per team on average) and that the average career length of a good starting pitcher is 10 years. There should be 9 new good pitchers per year (through both draft and international). Lets say half of these are in the first round. If so, that leaves 4.5 per year in round 2 or later. So the probability of one team finding a good pitcher in rounds 2 and higher is 0.15? If there are 60 or so backend starting pitchers, and average career is 5 years, then there needs to be 12 new blood per year
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Post by jchang on Jul 12, 2021 9:07:23 GMT -5
In the Pirates’ blurb: “Late word had Mayer demanding an at-slot deal with any pick” Can’t imagine his bonus is anywhere near 8 mil. I’m thinking 7.2/slot at 3 at most, not like he was the slam-dunk number one pick. blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap-2/it could be his way of telling the Pirates or other to not use him as a way getting extra room for other draftees, but also that he does not expect the team drafting him to have to pick a bunch of college seniors to make room for him seems like a reasonable person to me, I am also good for slot + 5%
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Post by jchang on Jul 11, 2021 19:49:00 GMT -5
I'm bracing for the bad news that Mayer's bonus demands are gonna cost us our second round pick. Fingers crossed I am hoping the Sox promised no more than slot + the delta from drafting a senior in the third or fourth round. there should be good players at the early 2nd round
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Post by jchang on Jul 11, 2021 18:46:25 GMT -5
Okay, I went to the bathroom. Did I miss anything? we're going to have to insist you go to the bathroom tomorrow around 1:30
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Post by jchang on Jul 6, 2021 16:58:46 GMT -5
I think the hope from the Red Sox perspective is that the Pirates would get the idea that Mayer is also trying to price himself back to four to the Red Sox. Yes, the Tigers are likely to take Mayer no matter what, but the threat of him being taken by an organization like the Tigers does less for his potential demands that that of the Red Sox (same idea as Leiter trying to price himself back to 4, as the Red Sox are more competitive and widely seen as a far superior organization to the other two). As far as your last point, I think the thought process is that the Pirates have been in almost exclusively on position players, and it has also been pretty widely known that they are looking to cut a deal below slot. As Leiter is neither of those two things, as a pitcher and based on current info the least likely to go under slot, logically you would think the Pirates will look elsewhere. If the Pirates look elsewhere, The Rangers could then select Mayer, taking out Boston's biggest competition for Leiter. The Tigers have not been connected much with Leiter and seem more likely to go the prep route. Voila, Leiter falls to the Red Sox. Is the Red Sox leaking interest in Mayer likely to end in this scenario? No. But any increase in the likelihood of getting their preferred player is worth a try. The problem with this theory is that it is weirdly selective in the assumptions about the knowledge of various parties. Like, Boston has to be certain that Pittsburgh wouldn't take Leiter, otherwise this whole scheme backfires; but the Pirates have to be fooled into thinking that Boston's interest in Mayer is sincere (even though numerous random internet commenters can see right through it) and the Pirates also have to think that the Tigers might not take Mayer given the opportunity - but they also have to be wrong in thinking that.
Again, my alternative theory is: the Red Sox like Mayer and are doing due diligence.
see this on what someone would or wouldn't do
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Post by jchang on Jul 6, 2021 10:44:59 GMT -5
Crocs?
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Post by jchang on Jul 1, 2021 14:15:24 GMT -5
a Beckett game: 12 runs of offense, air tight defense, and he'll take care of the rest
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Post by jchang on Jun 26, 2021 19:28:34 GMT -5
I repeat my point.....unless Song really wants a career as a Naval Officer (non pilot), he could have resigned after his junior years and had little to no commitment. My brother started at the Air Force Academy in a class of 4000 and at graduation there was only around 1000 remaining. Guys were cut for academics, could not pass basic training, could not officers training, or survival training.... each year, about 1400 are offered appointments, about 1200 or so accept. Total student body of 4 classes is somewhat 4000. The number remaining for graduation is somewhere upper 900. this year was 1019. I was Navy in the early 90's. Late in the Reagan built up, the need for warm bodies was high. if you were in a selective program/community and tried to complete but failed, then you were sent to a different community. After the desert storm, with the cold war also over, the military was downsizing. If you failed, they might just discharge you, releasing you from any commitment. You were also out of job in a down economy
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Post by jchang on Jun 15, 2021 17:04:18 GMT -5
for the top 30 Pick % MLB WAR/MLB WAR/pick 1 87% 22.7 19.7
2 85% 15.0 12.8
3 82% 13.3 10.9
4 80% 13.1 10.5
5 66% 11.2 7.4
6 73% 14.5 10.6
7 73% 10.3 7.5
8 65% 8.1 5.3
9 62% 8.3 5.1
10 82% 10.7 8.8
11 71% 6.9 4.9
12 60% 9.2 5.5
13 53% 12.0 6.4
14 71% 7.6 5.4
15 53% 9.5 5.0
16 69% 7.8 5.4
17 64% 9.1 5.8
18 57% 5.5 3.1
19 71% 9.7 6.9
20 60% 11.9 7.1
21 64% 4.5 2.9
22 64% 11.7 7.5
23 50% 6.8 3.4
24 62% 3.9 2.4
25 60% 6.9 4.1
26 48% 4.5 2.2
27 55% 3.9 2.1
28 64% 4.6 2.9
29 55% 8.6 4.7
30 55% 11.3 6.2
it would seem that screwing up the top 4 is hard. Probably more significant is the statistical variation. At #30, 55 picks, 31 played in majors, 351.2 WAR total, Mike Schmidt contributed 106.9. David Wells 53.4, 3 players over 30,
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Post by jchang on Jun 7, 2021 9:03:30 GMT -5
LaMahieu has also turned into a singles hitter, not what you want from a 6 year, $90M guy. 7 more years of Stanton? Ouch. Yankees will not let Judge go and he will require mega dollars. No thanks. The Yankees have 1 division title in the last 8 years, and with their roster makeup, I figured they would finish third before the season started. They are not a good defensive team. I am surprised their pitching is as good as it has been, but that may not last. may the Yanks sign more players with Chris "Crush" Davis type contract and WAR value
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Post by jchang on Apr 14, 2021 18:48:14 GMT -5
now that we have a more comfortable lead, Bazardo gets his time in the splotlight
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Post by jchang on Apr 14, 2021 18:36:23 GMT -5
and then Sawamura to close because its a tight game - Bazardo won't get game time
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Post by jchang on Apr 11, 2021 15:03:16 GMT -5
How did we get swept by this team lmao just needed a few games to warm up
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Post by jchang on Sept 27, 2020 10:26:09 GMT -5
As long as our pitchers know to go out, work on whatever they want to, have fun and nothing that happens today will be held against them
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Post by jchang on Sept 3, 2019 7:56:27 GMT -5
Granted, there is always risk on any given player's near-future performance with respect to a projection of his history. Usually, the high cost/value players available are free-agents, hence 28-30 years old. Mookie is 26 now, and 27 next year. I am inclined to think that player performance risk is lower for one at age 27-28 versus 30+. In this regard, there is higher risk-adjusted floor per year for Mookie than signing a free agent to a 5 year deal for ages 29-34.
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Post by jchang on Sept 2, 2019 8:26:32 GMT -5
anyone in Norwich? its a 90min drive for me. weather forecast says rain at 2pm-%.
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Post by jchang on Aug 26, 2019 15:14:52 GMT -5
it is difficult to predict from first year stats .284/.338/.482 Devers .288/.325/.509 Middlebrooks .285/.331/.549 Chris Davis
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Post by jchang on Jul 26, 2019 13:52:52 GMT -5
How about when a player runs out of options, he gets the option to refuse a minor league assignment (while collecting his MLB contract pay?)
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Post by jchang on Jul 9, 2019 12:04:45 GMT -5
$100K for a senior seems to be inline. Also, Song is getting O-1 over 4 pay. While at the academy, he was probably getting E3 pay. O-1 over 4 is $4,011 per mon plus a housing allowance? I am thinking the plan to allow him to pitch next year is to have a private plan fly him from Flight training school to where ever Greenville or Salem is playing on the weekends. If he already has a private pilots license, he can fly himself, building up his flight hours.
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Post by jchang on Jul 6, 2019 19:01:42 GMT -5
There is usually a gap of several months between graduation- commissioning and the start of flight school, November in this case. In between, new officers get assigned somewhere essentially as a gofer. Song will probably be told to go play baseball, calling in to Newport for muster. Next year, he will be in Florida. After completing flight school, it sound like he would be assigned to a reserve unit that will let him play significant time, unless his unit is deployed
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Post by jchang on Jul 5, 2019 10:41:35 GMT -5
The other factor here is that Naval attorneys are not likely to have dealt with contract law. This will be new turf for them. Navy contracts are handled by the Department of Defense, not the Navy. Pretty much every purchase done by the Navy and other branches involves a contract (or used to in the old days). This can be stupid in situations in which the effort to do the contract is greater than the value of the item being purchased. But this is an employment type contract, which military people normally do not engage in while on active duty. I supposed the Navy will look for anything that would be in conflict with their contract with Song, and claim they have priority. Or for anything that will pose a conflict of interest for Song in any official actions. I seriously do not think that a junior officer (O1-3), particularly a regular line officer, would have such authority, (a JAG or supply officer might). So this review is probably all a waste of time.
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