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Post by jchang on Oct 18, 2021 20:02:45 GMT -5
Wow 3 straight in Boston. I pray the pitching holds up. I’m pretty confident in the offense. Which ERod do we get tonight? He has a touch of Bucholtz in him. When he is on he is better. for your lack of faith, e-rod will pitch 7+ shutout innings
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Post by jchang on Oct 12, 2021 1:02:42 GMT -5
There have been so many historically great offenses that have completely underachieved in the playoffs like the 95/99 Indians, the 03 Sox, the 18 Astros, etc. Yet this team is just killing the ball against really good pitching, baseball is kinda great. Cognitive bias: you're remembering the exceptions. I did a study of post-season success (I know I've told this story before!) just before I was hired by the Sox that found no correlation between offense and success up to a certain level of offense, but a really strong correlation for the elite offenses. You can sum up the results as "good pitching actually does beat good hitting, but truly great hitting beats all pitching." Any indication, 1) for a given level of team offense, is it better to have a few elite or even distribution of talent, 2) is a good mix of L/R hitters, does this not matter
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Post by jchang on Oct 5, 2021 22:26:00 GMT -5
Whitlock building just a bit of drama into this last inning! Pap would walk three, SO three
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Post by jchang on Sept 22, 2021 20:06:35 GMT -5
Not quite as good as his first two at bats. In fact, it's half as good for Schwarber on that double. Schwarber slash line went from .261/.363/.540 to .267/.368/.562 0.022 SLG in 3 AB
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Post by jchang on Sept 18, 2021 18:31:42 GMT -5
Ortiz would hold the pose at the end of a home run swing. this is very important because not all photographers can catch the very end of the swing. so hold it to let them capture the instance properly
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2021 14:46:07 GMT -5
I am all for playing Dalbec as long as he can hold his position. But would be cautious of long-term, in case he has a career trajectory like Chris Crush Davis
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2021 13:21:08 GMT -5
took a lot to find this thread. any bets on Rusney Castillo?
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test
Aug 14, 2021 12:36:44 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jchang on Aug 14, 2021 12:36:44 GMT -5
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Post by jchang on Jul 31, 2021 15:15:58 GMT -5
We may never know what the final offer to Fabian was but if it turns out that they didn’t offer him $2.5 or they did it with a time window, I’m ok with that. I’d like to see them sign him but I’m not enamored with him and, given the choice, I’d take a package of Hickey, Kavadas (assuming they get him done), and next year’s 41 over Fabian. One note on next year, though: if the Sox sign a FA with a QO attached, they’ll lose the 41st pick and keep their original ‘22 pick, which will obviously be much lower. The Sox had 3m? If both signed. Presuming hickey’s price had been 1m all along, then the initial Sox offer could have been 2.6 to Fabian and slot to hickey or somewhat less to fab and more to hickey. Since Fabian did not accept whatever his offer was , the Sox gave hickey his price, which is high considering his rank, while 2.6 to fab would have been inline with his ranking. Oh well, time to move on
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Post by jchang on Jul 30, 2021 12:08:07 GMT -5
If Boston can't get a decent starter they really are better off long term fielding offers for Nasty Nate and ERod. Rebuild while building. Going to have to win games 10-7 at this point Good grief, take a deep breath, man. You don't rebuild when you have the 3rd best record in MLB at the trade deadline. In redsox world , we call a pitcher at 4.5 era , 6ip per start a barely adequate 5 sp
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Post by jchang on Jul 30, 2021 12:03:04 GMT -5
Cubs draft signing below. Never seen this before and honestly didn't even know this was a possible arrangement: This type of arrangement should be available to any draftee or undrafted with low signing bonus below some amount Signer can no longer play college baseball and attends pro camp after school
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2021 16:41:32 GMT -5
Is this so crazy that it could never happen? Red Sox to Fabian: We can go to $2.5M Fabian to Orioles: Red Sox want me one pick before yours. Orioles to Fabian knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him: We can go to $3M Orioles talking amongst themselves: Hahahaha
If the Orioles did this, and then the Red Sox passed on Fabian, and then the Orioles either didn’t draft him or didn’t offer $3M, that’s a big black mark. Once you start reneging on deals, no one wants to make deals with you anymore. Fabian was ranked 23 by MLB, 27 by BA and 37 by PG. Slot for 23 is just under $3M, so Fabian has grounds to ask based on the high value, while the drafting team can start at the lower value. I am assuming various teams called to inquire as to his ask, and possibly a counter of : would you take 2.x? Given that the O's drafted the tenth rank (MLB) prospect with their first pick and signed to $4.9M, slightly over slot for 10, then it is not entirely unreasonable for the O's to be agreeable to 3M for the 23rd ranked (again MLB) prospect - also slightly over slot. Now its up to Fabian whether he should take the 2.6 bird in hand, or go for 3+ birds in the bush
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2021 9:09:45 GMT -5
to reframe the objective assessment with regard to Fabian, we could use the success rate of the #40 pick, or if we consider that Jud "could" have been a #23 pick based on his MLB draftee rank (too bad there isn't an easy to assess draft success by pre-draft ranking?). In either case, close to 50% make the majors, and about 5 or 6 (in 50 years between 1965-2014) have double digit WAR. Making it to the majors should entail 2-3 of of MLB minimum? and perhaps a couple of arbitration year salary bumps? It is the double digit WAR (may be 6+) guys that will be in a position to get fat free-agent contracts? With this and perhaps additional detail, how does Fabian play his cards? with respect to fishing for a big bonus?
I have no basis for this, but lets say the probability of Fabian getting a 3M+ signing bonus (slot 22 money) next year is 10%, versus the 2-2.6M the sox can offer him this year. Which fish should he be hunting for?
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 18:06:31 GMT -5
What's funny is that if he just merely invested that 2.5 million, he probably gets that extra .5 million or more by the next time he's drafted and looking for 3 million. It's just such an unnecessary gamble, but I guess he can go back to school again the year after next because of Covid? So he's not totally without any leverage. I'm just failing to see how it's worth the risk. Like, great, you made 2 million more. You could also continue to get exposed and go entirely undrafted. Rocker was a once in a generation pitcher, until he wasn't. Still went 10th, but still. Obviously I want the prospect, but take the money kid. If you're getting offered 600k, fine, go back to school, but 2.5 million? 8% is more reasonable annual appreciation, so 2.5 becomes 2.7 in one year. Of course, both are after agent fees and taxes, so the tax aspect is moot. This actually makes the risk factor that he will warrant slot 24 money next year all the more a bad bet. Another question is: which path will lead to the majors, if this happens, sooner or a longer MLB career. I assume that 1 year of college is not equivalent to 1 year of Milb, so perhaps signing now could mean one-half season sooner to the majors?
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 16:10:22 GMT -5
So, I know this is close to impossible unlikely but if the Sox did go over for Fabian. Would it the make since to just say “eff it” and sign everyone else including Green? If they were going to do that, they needed to have that plan from the start and draft a bunch of signability guys in the later rounds. I certainly wouldn't do it for Fabian and Green. if we went over for Fabian, we lose a first or second? So which is worth more: 1) Fabian or 2) the pick lost + next years #41. I am inclined to guess 2 is worth more. Good luck Jud (no sarc, I appreciate a river boat gambler even if I don't like the risk vs. upside)
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 11:23:28 GMT -5
I'm curious which teams offered him $3M. KC? Colorado? I'd include Baltimore but they don't seem to have a plan. KC at pick 43, MLB rank 46 signed to just under 3M. PIT at pick 72, MLB rank 21 signed to 3M. So Fabian could argue some comparable draftees signed at that amount, but there were also others highly ranked who signed for less, ranks 9 and 19 both signed for 2.5M. But the main distinction is that the Sox cannot go to 3M without incurring a significant penalty, so far most teams seem to be staying inside the pool limits
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 9:55:06 GMT -5
This is somewhat dated but it's a list of players that didn't sign and what they got afterwards. Most interesting one was Brady Aiken who turned down 40% of his slot (medical issues) then got much less later from the Indians (for those of you who are too young to remember, that's the old name for the Guardians). Astros picked Bregman the next year for that slot. www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-has-happened-to-top-picks-who-failed-to-sign/The kicker: What I want to do is grab Fabian (or any of these other guys) by the collar and say: "You are incredibly lucky! I know you think your success is due to your own hard work, because you wouldn't have gotten where you are without it, and that if you just keep working hard you will surely improve your position next time around. But life is not required to conform itself to your own sense of what you deserve; your hand-eye coordination could deteriorate some tiny amount; you could get injured; you might just not be as good as you think you are. And yet someone is offering you $2.5 million because they think there is maybe a 15% chance you will succeed as one of the top 0.01% of performers in this line of work. If a year from now you are merely in the top 0.02% you get nothing."
We should try to find Matt Harrington to talks to Fabian. btw, in the 2000 draft in which Matt was drafted 1-7, were : Adrian Gonzalez (1-1, 3M bonus, 43.5 bWAR) Chase Utley (1-15, 1.78M, 64.5 bWAR) Adam Wainwright (1-29, 1.25M, 41.8 bWAR) Grady Sizemore (3-76, 2M, 27.8 bWAR) Cliff Lee (4-105, 43.2 bWAR) Yadier Molina (4-113, 41.2 bWAR) Brandon Webb (8th, 31.1) and Edwin Encarnacion (9th, 35.4) the MLB 2000 draft bonus winner was Joe Borchard at 5.3M, -1.5 bWAR , several years in MLB, no big free agent contract, so perhaps Harrington's (agent's) demand of 4.5M might not have been too extravagant
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 8:38:08 GMT -5
Per Sportrac there are 7 unsigned draft picks in the first two rounds of the 2021 MLB draft. This list includes Leiter, Lawlor, Rocker, House and Watson in the first tound. The bulk of the overslot bonuses paid in the 2nd round were by teams which went significantly under slot in round 1. www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/there were several over-slots in the 3rd round as well, notably PIT - $3M vs slot 870K, so with the 1.9M underslot in Davis, Pit was able to get 2 players ranked 21 or better, not a bad strategy with the 1-1
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Post by jchang on Jul 26, 2021 16:32:05 GMT -5
I'm confused by this "maybe Fabian or Hickey won't sign" talk. What every knowledgeable person said before the draft, here and elsewhere, was that if a guy is taken in rounds 1-10, it's a safe bet that they'll sign. And also that signing bonuses are basically agreed on before the guys are drafted. If they're just hashing out details right now, then no problem, but to actually not sign one of these guys? Seems to go against what everyone was saying would happen... 1) It's not that they agree on bonuses, but rather the team knows the asking price. There are certainly instances where that happens but it's not the rule - the rule is that the team will ask the player's price before popping them. 2) The bonuses have been kind of surprising for the guys who did sign. Mayer took slot but I don't know if anyone saw, for example, ERC getting $500k or Miller getting $200k (Callis on our podcast called him an underslot guy). The new Fabian/Hickey concern is based on the reporting that both will require overslot bonuses and there not being a ton of money left in the pool. We'll see what happens - maybe the Red Sox are planning to call one and/or the other's bluff and they needed to know exactly how much money they had before doing so. There's a lot of wait-and-see here, it's just trying to read the tea leaves. I think only Mookie and Ockimey were unranked when drafted to a good bonus (450K+)
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Post by jchang on Jul 26, 2021 14:41:00 GMT -5
I am leaning towards Fabian signing for the max we have left, assuming Hickey doesn't sign, say 2.6M. However much Fabian thinks his upside potential for 2022 is top 10, achieving his current ranking, 23, 27 & 37 of all draft eligible prospects for 2021 is already an incredible achievement. If many things go right for him, and almost nothing goes wrong, then perhaps a higher rank in 2022. But a real probability, any injury, is a lower rank. Given that he will be a high profile player, every team he play will scout the heck out of him for known weaknesses. The sox remaining budget of 2.6M is slot 26/27 money, pretty damn good. Don't gamble that for a risk laden shot at high 4M. Usually, taking a risk makes sense only if the gain is much larger than 2X. I am thinking the Sox have a offer to Fabian, if he does not accept sometime before the deadline + room, then the spare cap space, currently $720k gets split between Kavadas and Green, as each would warrant around $400K. Hickey's offer should be slot or possibly slot + 5%.
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Post by jchang on Jul 24, 2021 10:34:24 GMT -5
You’d think the redsox would have made ceremonial souvenir “Redsox 2021 Draft” logo pens for the signing, and use letterhead paper?
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Post by jchang on Jul 23, 2021 4:47:48 GMT -5
The Pittsburgh thing is getting old. They seem to use their competitive balance picks to just hoard prospects and make bad trades with the Rays and Yankees. They’ve been relevant like once or twice in the last twenty five years. Pittsburgh isn’t Scranton, they’re just a cheap team free riding off revenue sharing. This is exactly when you drop to a knee and thank the good lord of your choice that you're not a Pirates fan... If it’s tough being a pirates fan, it’s even tougher being a pirates draftee, more so the high picks Then again, Sox fans are known to be very forgiving in prospect development pains
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Post by jchang on Jul 21, 2021 2:28:06 GMT -5
In the year dalbec was drafted, he and groome were assigned to Lowell, at a game in Connecticut, I saw dalbec before the game eating either a chili dog or a hot dog heavily dressed. Can’t extrapolate one point to 7/24, but … actually, I think pizza offers the best calorie per dollar, but a young athlete could also do well going all out at a buffet one day, eat light the next, and repeat
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Post by jchang on Jul 19, 2021 14:34:32 GMT -5
Mayer said he would sign for slot, possibly meaning if 1-1, then 1-1 money , possibly with some limit, like 1-6 floor. Suppose the pirates, texas and Detroit rated the top four as close so whoever takes the lower bonus would allow room for another bonus baby with their next pick. Then the two high bonus picks outweigh what ever the difference between the top four are. Hence the maneuvering shenanigans are irrelevant as there is a logical reason for what happened
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Post by jchang on Jul 17, 2021 11:44:14 GMT -5
Any one who collected a huge payday and did nothing to earn it
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