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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 14, 2023 14:07:47 GMT -5
So with Rafael Devers, referred to as Rafi around here, should Rafaela be known as Rafa, around here ? This is an important question for future game threads because we hope to be pimping these guys in the game thread for years to come and I think a home grown rule should be established. Democratic means, of course, because that is what this great county was founded on. Or Ceddanne? Sir Ceddanne? Ceddanne Dion? Ceddanne the Magnificent? CR Bombs? Ceddanne, C-Dan or Sedan
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 13, 2023 12:12:59 GMT -5
2 of of Yammamoto, Nola, Montgomery Bello 2 of Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford Sale as closer/high leverage reliever (yes it's a ton of $ but he's a sunk cost and it might allow him to have an effective - and needed - role for an entire season).
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 8, 2023 9:05:38 GMT -5
Being alone on a boat can be incredibly peaceful. 1 Rafaela. I see a future superstar with a seriously underrated hit tool. 2 Teel. I see a plus on both sides of the dish. Future top 5 catcher. With me, catchers get a bigger bump because, catchers. 3 Anthony. The ball jumps off his bat. He'll be a stud right fielder. 4. Mayer. I know, young for the league and fighting shoulder issues. Those are reasons, I wanna see it. His production went down as the season progressed, not up. 5. Yorke. Maybe not with the Sox but this is an everyday starting second baseman in the making. Solid but not spectacular defender. 6. Bleis. Losing a year on top of being very raw makes his reaching his potential a smaller probability than at the start of the year. Looking at this top 6 just shows a lot of strength in the Sox system as it's not too hard to envision MLB careers for each within the next 2-3 years (maybe excepting Bleis). As for my binky Ceddanne, nice to see a knowledgeable poster ranking him up top. So far he has been able to hit MLB pitching in SSS, but of course he's K'ing a lot, has made an error in one of the 3 up the middle positions he's played and got caught stealing which his doubters and detractors will not doubt point out (without the SSS caveat -jk).
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 6, 2023 14:38:34 GMT -5
Triston v Gunnar in ROYal smackdown
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 4, 2023 13:40:22 GMT -5
My recollection of JBJ was that he had excellent route running, outstanding jump and a rocket arm and that his foot speed was considered averagish for a CF. We are waiting to see Ceddanne on a regular basis but reports from multiple sources who are in a position to know is that his speed is above average, his jump is exceptional, is arm is strong (maybe a tick or so under JBJ but still plenty for a CF or even RF). What we need to see is is route running, but remember he has played relatively little in CF compared to Bradley whose entire career, I believe was as an OF. Regardless, so looking forward to seeing Rafaela get regular time. And I agree with an earlier post, if they aren't going to play him then send him down and let him continue to develop his hitting approach - they have plenty of OF to fill in even with Duran out, they don't need him to be the 6th behind Verdugo, Duvall, Refsnyder, Abreu and Masa.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 4, 2023 11:20:33 GMT -5
Might want to think about Devers although maybe he was only 18 and then 19 in Pawtucket (AAA)
I stand corrected, thanks.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 29, 2023 10:07:18 GMT -5
Give the mfyAAnkees Fitts
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 22, 2023 13:13:13 GMT -5
6 outfielders isn't too many IF one of them happens to play above average SS
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 22, 2023 13:08:49 GMT -5
It's been mentioned before, but all those teams had the option to claim him off waivers and only have to keep him on the 26-man roster for 90 days. All those teams declined, so why would they pick him when he has to spend the whole season on the 26-man? This would have been the ideal time for some team that was out of contention to take him, live with the 3 months of him taking a space since it would have had no meaningful impact on their season and then hope to develop hum into a playable or tradeable asset. The fact that no one even did that just further buttresses vermontsox1 point.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 17, 2023 10:22:53 GMT -5
Is it ok if Kennedy references this one, or does he still have to use the lowest ranking list? Guess it depends on whether you're applying for a loan or filing your taxes.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 15, 2023 15:27:53 GMT -5
In 2021 Rafaela played 61 games in the outfield, none recorded before that in his professional career so at this point he's played a bit over 2 season there and he's had rave reviews virtually since day one. I don't know how they work defensive states but I have a thought experiment that I think captures the idea of elite CF defense. The difference between a .250 and .300 hitter is 30 hits per 600 ABs or 1 hit every 5 games in 150 games played. Based on the MLB average this season that translates to 19 singles, 7 doubles/triples and 4 home runs. Now compare what an elite CF can do versus a league average one. Will he make one play every 5 games that the average CF would not make? Also it is fair to posit that most of those rare plays will be taking away extra base hits and/or holding a batter to a single instead of a double or triple. And there is additionally the "fear factor" of base runners having to wait a beat or two to see if that shot is really going to drop which combined with CD's above average arm (SP: "Plus arm, quick release...") means hitters/runners are at times one base further from scoring. So when I think about Ceddanne Rafaela I think about how much his defense supplements what MAY be a pedestrian batting line, I recognize that he may well be a bottom of the order bat (someone has to be after all) but note that he has the potential to improve to be MLB average (this season 248/320/413/733) and even be a tier or two above that. With the kind of defensive advantages cited above...sign me up all day.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 14, 2023 9:37:42 GMT -5
There are 9 outfielders who qualify for the batting title with an OPS over .840: Acuna, Betts, Bellinger, Soto, Tucker, Robert, Carroll, Adolis Garcia, and Yelich. Expanding to 300 PA min., you add 6: Yordan, Chas Mccormick, Trout, Luke Raley, Riley Greene, Christopher Morel. Dunno how many of those guys I'd call plus defenders at this point. Thanks Chris, so on your expanded list there are 15 out of 90 starting OF positions or 1 in 6 and Rafaela seems to be as good or better than any on defense PLUS he can play average or better SS which not even Mookie can do for more than a game or so. I really can remember a prospect with this much potential being so readily dismissed by so many on this site which is largely why his defenders get so pumped up. Did he shoot someone's dog that we don't know about?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 14, 2023 9:29:09 GMT -5
I am completely prepared to think Rafaela could flame out at the plate with the result being perhaps one of the best defense super utility player in the history of the game with a Mendoza line bat. However, I would point out that people were ready to dump Duran and now, after 4 hot months some want to anoint him as the CF anchor despite his defense being at best average and his speed being his main carrying tool as a soon to be 27 year old. As for Kiermaier, 3+ WAR players at premium positions are pretty valuable (@ $20mm/year in their prime on the free agent market I guess) and if he ends up as Kiermaier or Blair that's worth the risk versus what you can realistically get for a guy in AAA. Also note that despite his negative states in some areas, there is more than one way to get to the 90/95 OPS+ range particularly when we're talking about a 22 year old whose main problem is not lack of physical talent but a skill that can be improved.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 14, 2023 7:29:02 GMT -5
incandenza I don't think anyone, even the most ardent fan like me, thinks Kiermaier is the floor which is why I posted that as his CENTRAL projection which given his already known defense is not such a stretch. His D has been on display for some time now and we have heard assessments from coaches and rehabbing MLBers who back up those reports so, yes he might not reach them, but he might also exceed them. As for the bat, we can be pretty sure he won't be Willie Mays, but he could well be Jimmy Piersall (93 OPS+) or Paul Blair (96 OPS+) either of which is an excellent outcome. And if his outlier approach works in the Majors then he's an all star. Or he could be JBJ without the white hot streaks which is not so great but still very useful especially given his ability to backup SS.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 13, 2023 14:02:21 GMT -5
Kevin Kiermaier has a career .718 ops with q 7% BB rate and 22% K rate and a .158 iso averaging about 3.3 bWAR with a .310 BABIP. If that's the central projection for Rafaela it's huge win not even counting that he can play average to above SS when needed. And, as mentioned above, he may well not be done developing yet. BTW, Kiermaier debuted in MLB at age 23 (1 game)
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 13, 2023 13:38:32 GMT -5
Get to Skubal and ERod, get shut down by Manning. This team! Keep collecting series wins Maybe we shouldn't be so concerned with the "brutal" remaining schedule ?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 11, 2023 8:59:37 GMT -5
I wonder if some high priced but unusual structure would get this done. For example: 10 years $250mm after year 5 there is a mutual option, Yamamoto can opt out if he thinks he can get more than 5/$125mm or the Sox can opt out for for $25mm.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 6, 2023 19:42:19 GMT -5
Raise your hand if you think John Henry and crew would ever say, "We are going to suck or at best be marginal for 3 or 4 years while we build up the farm and create a ground up operation that can provide low cost quality players who are worth investing in with expensive free agents or trades to put us over the top." Of course they are going to say their intent is contend while creating the above, however, it isn't realistic to think they could do both. Now is the time for the plan to come to fruition and with Casas and Bello already here, Yoshida, Story and Devers in place, Rafaela on the way and the hope that this is not just a career year for Duran they are rounding into that shape. I would really expect them to go whole hog after Yamamoto if they believe he's the real thing or find a top pitcher elsewhere either by cash or trading some real assets. Hopefully Mayer gets it going, but if not they do have a guy who can play above average shortstop though they'd need to rearrange the outfield. But 2024 is the time and then the problem will be to continue draft well as the Sox move up and their draft position and associated $$ move down. Then why did they hold onto Duvall, Eovaldi, Paxton, Verdugo, etc.? The plan is clearly not to focus on the farm. Its wanting to have your cake and eat it too. OK I guess you're raising your hand and are disappointed that JH didn't turn the club into the AAAs. You could as well say why sign Story, Yoshida and Turner - things aren't so black and white.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 6, 2023 19:22:10 GMT -5
Raise your hand if you think John Henry and crew would ever say, "We are going to suck or at best be marginal for 3 or 4 years while we build up the farm and create a ground up operation that can provide low cost quality players who are worth investing in with expensive free agents or trades to put us over the top."
Of course they are going to say their intent is contend while creating the above, however, it isn't realistic to think they could do both. Now is the time for the plan to come to fruition and with Casas and Bello already here, Yoshida, Story and Devers in place, Rafaela on the way and the hope that this is not just a career year for Duran they are rounding into that shape. I would really expect them to go whole hog after Yamamoto if they believe he's the real thing or find a top pitcher elsewhere either by cash or trading some real assets. Hopefully Mayer gets it going, but if not they do have a guy who can play above average shortstop though they'd need to rearrange the outfield. But 2024 is the time and then the problem will be to continue draft well as the Sox move up and their draft position and associated $$ move down.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 6, 2023 14:38:13 GMT -5
We’re not talking enough about the fact that Blaze Jordan is a 20 year old with a .754 OPS despite a very low BABIP and a single digit strikeout rate. I thought about starting a thread of most dissed list and my first two were Rafaela and Jordan (with Yorke a possible third based on how readily some posters are to trade him away). It is still an open question as to whether PCA will actually be better than the sum of Nick and Blaze.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 6, 2023 14:26:33 GMT -5
Ceddanne is 3 for 5 with a double (328/1067) but he struck out once and failed to draw a base on balls....back to Portland with him.
ETA: If a guy is going to have a 320 obp I'd rather have him hitting 280 with fewer walks than 250 with an average BB%
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 5, 2023 22:08:58 GMT -5
Maybe should have waited a tick or two before ranking Roman above Ceddanne.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 5, 2023 9:11:00 GMT -5
In 5 years Ceddanne Rafaela will be 27/28 and yet some already have him bumped out of the outfield even though he has accomplished more than anyone else in the system at this moment. You all realize that he is just improving his chase rate away from being as close to Mookie as we are likely to see anytime soon? He has the the glove (maybe even better and can legit play SS), he has the arm, his speed is equal to or better and his base running instinct appear to be on par. Powere is arguably in the neighborhood so it comes down to bat to ball (somewhat) and selectivity where Betts has a major advantage. Yes I have been on Ceddanne's bandwagon forever and I'm not saying he is Mookie Betts but in the 3 non hitting tools he is *at least* equal to him, in power he is close and in hit tool he has seemed to be able to largely overcome his weakness if not correct it. Not expecting everyone to be the fanboy I am, but the discounting of his talent by willingness, nay eagerness, to trade him or ignore him is very surprising.
ETA: Mods feel free to move this post to the Ceddanne Rafaela thread.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 1, 2023 17:13:34 GMT -5
Guess Bloom is feeling good about the 10 game stretch end of August vs Astros and Dodgers. So by late August they should have Sale, Story, Houck and perhaps Whitlock back. If they are going to go anywhere in the post season it will depend much more on those guys than anyone they might have traded for. It's actually the best scenario they could ask for as opposed to seeing those teams starting now.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 1, 2023 17:06:41 GMT -5
I wonder what the Venn Diagram of those on here who: 1. Want to trade Yorke and/or Rafaela for a bucket of warm spit (5th starter/reliever) 2. Dump Paxton for prospects (to replace Yorke & Rafaela?) 3. Think that John Henry is too cheap 4. Think Chaim Bloom and the team have no consistent strategy would look like?
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