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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 9, 2023 19:09:28 GMT -5
So if I understand this correctly, it is the deferred amount only that is discounted to a present value, but is it discounted to the end of the contract term (10 years in Ohtani's case) or to the present day and this recalculated each year? Also is that discounted amount then divided by the original term and then added to the contract's scheduled payments during its active time?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 9, 2023 18:00:00 GMT -5
Well it's been well over I decade since I worked in finance, however, the standard way to discount a future cash flow (and the way they do it for lottery payments for those who want cash) is to use the US Treasury rate for the term of the cashflows. (Actually they should use the zero coupon curve but it pretty much leads to the same result). So I ran a couple of scenarios to get a sense of what the present value (PV) of the payment streams would be just for demonstration purposes. If I understand what those in the know have said that PV would then be divided by 10 to get the AAV for LT purposes. Here are a couple of examples:
1. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 20 years at $25,000,000 discount rate 5.00% annual PV = $345,702,602 AAV = $34,570,206 2. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 20 years at $25,000,000 discount rate 10.00% annual PV = $204,950,026 AAV = $20,495,003 3. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 15 years at $33,333,333 discount rate 5.00% annual PV = $366,841,684 AAV = $36,684,168 4. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 15 years at $33,333,333 discount rate 10.00% annual PV = $220,640,432 AAV = $22,064,043 3. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 15 years at $33,333,333 discount rate 5.00% annual PV = $366,841,684 AAV = $36,684,168 4. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 15 years at $33,333,333 discount rate 10.00% annual PV = $220,640,432 AAV = $22,064,043 3. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 15 years at $33,333,333 discount rate 5.00% annual PV = $366,841,684 AAV = $36,684,168
4. 10 years at $20,000,000 then 15 years at $33,333,333 discount rate 10.00% annual PV = $220,640,432 AAV = $22,064,043 5. 35 years at $20,000,000 discount rate 5.00% annual PV = $327,483,886 AAV = $32,748,389 6. 35 years at $20,000,000 discount rate 10.00% annual PV = $192,883,179 AAV = $19,288,318
What should be very apparent is that the discount rate is vitally important and the best way to manipulate the PV of the deal. I chose 5.00% as representative of long term treasuries in today's environment and 10% to represent the "total return" (growth plus dividends) of the S&P 500 (there can be a lot of discussion about this including the timing of it but that's another day's issue). Of course if you were to use Japanese rates the long term treasury would be under 2.00% further increasing the PV, but enough, the point is the Dodgers are going to be on the hook for north - and perhaps well north - of $20mm to $30mm for decades most of which are guaranteed to be dead money.
Well this is an understatement since I discounted the assumed $20mm payments during the term of the deal which should not have been done in the AAV computation. My error and the result will be a multi-million dollar increase in the AAV under each scenario.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 8, 2023 18:42:03 GMT -5
SO the basic 2024 OF corps has been transformed to: Abreu (L) RF -CF -LF Duran (L) LF O'Neill (R) CF-LF-RF Rafaela (R) CF-RF-LF Yoshida (L) LF
More balance, a chance for a health related rebound and it gives the kids a chance to prove themselves. Plus with Anthony perhaps knocking on the door there is only a one year commitment along with a extra $4mm to throw around. What's not to really like about this trade?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 20, 2023 9:49:04 GMT -5
9 year $252 million deal. Mutual opt out at end of year 5. If Sox trigger opt out and not him he gets $15 million Even then he seems extremely risky to give such a huge deal to So a guarantee of $155mm (5x$28+$15) vs perhaps $200mm (8x$25). Doesn't look that compelling from the player's standpoint.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 18, 2023 22:00:28 GMT -5
Easy w, very dominant performance The Habs really missed those Monreal refs, eh?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 7, 2023 18:03:24 GMT -5
A questions for the stat gurus. Do they have an analysis of the quality of 3rd base coaches? I imagine it would attempt to measure the quality of the send/stop decisions of the coach wrt close plays against the likelihood of success based on the speed of the runner, the arm of the fielder and the distances in question? Is it done, is it possible, is it meaningful?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 1, 2023 19:20:16 GMT -5
Page 27 of this thread and I'm totally confused as to whether Yorke's defense is good or bad. Yes it is.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 1, 2023 7:23:37 GMT -5
I dislike the aesthetics of a bullpen game too, but I believe the Rattlesnakes' only option for a traditional starter would have been Ryne Nelson whose ERA and multiverse stats were all above 5. Strategically I think the bullpen game was the right way to go. (Nelson was third on the team in SP IP with 138. Pfaadt was fourth at just 90. #5 hasn't pitched since July and #6 has been released. No one else pitched so much as 20 innings as a starter.) But feel free to blame MLB for constructing a playoff format that allows a mediocre team to ride two starters all the way to the World Series. "Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain and then dear lord two days of rain."
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 31, 2023 8:15:20 GMT -5
So, far this World Series has featured some excellent fielding, a couple of exciting rookies, an inspiring comeback, throwback small ball (the bunt lives), stolen bases, patches of dominant pitching and timely hitting with dramatic homeruns. Yeah, but other than that a real disappointment because... the two teams...
I'm enjoying it - hope it goes 7 with an extra inning (without ghost runners) finale.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 26, 2023 12:58:44 GMT -5
I guess it depends on what you value most in a pitcher: Longevity = Clemens (but 'roid enhanced so who knows) ERA = Bob Gibson (but with a higher mound) Ks & No-Nos = Ryan Efficiency = Maddux But for me Pedro takes it based on those 6 no innings in 1999 versus a truly murderous Cleveland lineup without a fastball that could touch 90 due to a back injury. As for Kershaw, well here's an article (not) by Pedro for your enjoyment lol grantland.com/the-triangle/pedro-martinez-letter-to-clayton-kershaw/
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 26, 2023 8:12:23 GMT -5
In hockey teams have to go through 4 rounds of best of 7 series to win the Stanley Cup, no byes, no one-and-dones, no short series which increase the chances for an upset. Yes the Bruins were bumped out in the first round despite having a record setting regular season, but it took all 7 games and the 8th seed that beat them made it all the way to the finals where they lost to arguably the second best regular season team. I think baseball's post season problem is the short series and byes, not the fact that a number of teams qualify. After all teams restructure during the season, young players grow into the game, injured players come and go, teams start hot and cool off and vice versa. Are you really going to complain about the brand of baseball being played by Arizona with good pitching and defense, timely hitting and excellent baserunning? And they're now facing a team with great hitting and solid D and pitching, it should be interesting and fun to watch. As I mentioned elsewhere, IMHO MLB should have a 16 team, 4 round, best of 7 tourney - it keeps fans interested during the loooong regular season and gives the better teams the best chance to prove themselves and overcome in a game where luck plays a significant role.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 24, 2023 9:34:19 GMT -5
So as far as layoffs go consider that the "best" team" sweeps the "worst" one in a 7 game series while on the opposite side of the bracket the series goes the full 7 games - result the "best" team has a long layoff to overcome. Now look at the NHL where teams play 4 rounds of best of 7 in a much more grueling sport yet no one ever complains about the Stanley Cu tourney. Even last year where the B's were upset, it was another top echelon team (LV) that won out. I'd like to see a balanced playoff of 4 rounds of best of 7 meaning 16 teams get in and with a reseed after each round to give a marginal advantage to those who fared best in the regular season. If that means cutting back to 154 or so game regular season so be it. More playoffs means more fan excitement and eliminating the short series gives the advantage back to the supposed better teams.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 17, 2023 13:31:11 GMT -5
If /\ is TRUE, then make a reasonable offer now or just wait a year and get in FA.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 8, 2023 15:09:43 GMT -5
Can Joe Andy Kapp still throw? Mike Talifiero? FIFY
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 6, 2023 14:40:58 GMT -5
Certainly speaks well of the system when the two time player of the year is mentioned as being rated third and the suggestion is it is a typo and that it may be too high
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 2, 2023 19:30:25 GMT -5
If you're a true Bostonian the top few should be automatic
1) New York (it's the MFY even if they didn't make it they're still numero uno) 2) Los Angeles (Beat L-A!!! and you call yourselves Celtics fans) 3) Houston (the Cheatstros) 4-5) Miami and Tampa (because Floriduh even though I'm in St Pete) 6-11) Arizona, Philly, Milwaukee, Texas, Toronto, Minnesota (order doesn't really matter now does it?) 12) Atlanta (somewhat insufferable, but attenuated Boston DNA) 13) Baltimore (they may have tanked but they didn't waste it and they have great O.G. history...and they didn't move Indianapolis in the middle of the night)
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 29, 2023 18:14:45 GMT -5
Just a question, but if it's a bit too dangerous to count on Ohtani as a pitcher could he be a closer where his arm is not used as much and also a DH and perhaps RF? What happens when he leads off the bottom of the 8th with a 1 run lead, rips a double, and then gets stranded at 3rd to end the inning? Not sure how he's getting ready to close out the game in time, and to make things worse, your setup man just threw 25 pitches, and your 3rd best reliever has gone back to back days. Having him as your closer seems to risky with too many non ideal scenarios that could pop up. Or he could get hit by lightning while standing on 3rd. Sorry, don't mean to be facetious but that's the type of situation that probably arises very rarely. However, you make a good point about how he warms up while playing (easier if he's the DH perhaps).
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 29, 2023 14:59:49 GMT -5
Just a question, but if it's a bit too dangerous to count on Ohtani as a pitcher could he be a closer where his arm is not used as much and also a DH and perhaps RF?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 28, 2023 10:50:29 GMT -5
Teel next year if he isn't already in the show.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 25, 2023 14:37:45 GMT -5
Not sure that trading both Verdugo and Duran is in the cards unless they believe they have a solid OF available. If that's Dalbec they are left with two rookies plus an unproven AAAA veteran while awaiting the continued development of Anthony for another year (and hoping it doesn't get derailed). My guess is Verdugo is traded, they hope Duran was not just a career year and he either becomes a fixture or is traded if both Abreu and Rafaela pan out and Anthony arrives. The risk is that Duran regresses and the other two don't produce, but at least they should all provide decent D, speed and baserunning. Verdugo seems about to be too expensive for what he can deliver as an upgrade over even a regressed Duran or modest Abreu. Meanwhile Rafaela's excellent D at 3 middle of the field positions compensates for his hackage even if it doesn't improve.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 25, 2023 13:26:49 GMT -5
Taking nothing away from Kershaw who is a lock first ballot HOFer, but he pitched to pitchers and he didn't pitch his career in Fenway and in the AL East nor in the steroid era where 97 pound weaklings could go yard at any moment. He's a great pitcher, but he's no Pedro.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 14, 2023 15:02:05 GMT -5
At this moment C-Dan's K rate is .400 exactly the same as his OBP.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 14, 2023 14:53:40 GMT -5
If the Sox finish on a 17-0 run and make the playoffs do they just decide to deep six the whole GM gig?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 14, 2023 14:51:39 GMT -5
His oppo stroke may have some problems at Fenway (Pesky Pole excepted) - but it's going to play great at MFYankee bandbox.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 14, 2023 14:48:40 GMT -5
C-Danger man!!
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