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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 29, 2015 12:45:38 GMT -5
Actually the entire premise for this thread in factually incorrect. Between his posting fee and contract (in which he failed to hit bonus tied incentives) the Sox spent over 103 million dollars to acquire Daisuke Matsuzaka. .
And the simple fact that baseball is generating much more in revenue today than it was 15-20 years ago or any other time in the sports history, should make using historical precedents for hard dollar amounts useless. It is akin to a Bernie Sanders supporter saying that taxes under his fantasy administration would be less than under Eisenhower without acknowledging that at that time we were still paying of the practical rebuilding of Europe.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 29, 2015 1:21:38 GMT -5
Not that the Fangraphs’ dollar value stat should be taken as gospel or anything, but over the past three seasons Price has been worth roughly 43.4 million per season. By the basis of any normalized ageing curve, while also considering the inflation of player values, he should actually be decent value over an 8 year, 250 million dollar contract. You are likely looking at a pitcher who would greatly outperform his contract in seasons 1-3, provide some excess value in seasons 4&5 and may be a thorn in payroll the seasons that follow.
For what it is worth, Zimmerman had been worthy roughly 30.5 million dollars over the past three seasons and is only 8 months younger than Price.
As an aside: Can we stop using random pictures and videos posted on social media as a tool for player evaluation. It is has zero predictive value and is probably the dumbest sort of thing you can rely on for player evaluation. Please refer to the numerous freely available websites with advanced statistics or detailed scouting reports to judge players. Most of the posters here want to either read or participate in useful, reasoned discussion. If we wanted to troll player's twitter feeds, we could do it for ourselves.
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Boras
Nov 22, 2015 23:33:46 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 22, 2015 23:33:46 GMT -5
It's actually not that crazy of statement. The Marlins are a horrible horrible horrible organization. If I was Jose Fernandez I would lay out an innings limit, and count down the days until my free agency There must be a generational divide going on here. The notion of quitting on your teammates because you're unhappy with your employer is anathema to everything long time fans of the sport hold sacred about baseball. But hey, whatever floats your boat, right? Or you know, the guy also may want to still be pitching when he is 30. Players should have the ability to make decisions that may impact their careers, life earnings, and health.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 20, 2015 22:51:32 GMT -5
Reading peoples reaction to the possibility of getting Fernandez is quite amazing/frustrating. It seems like you all don't seem to realize he has the second best FIP of all pitchers in baseball over the pat three seasons and is not even 24.
Yes the cost will likely be prohibitive and yes he has some injury concerns, but come on, he is presently the best pitcher in baseball not named Kershaw, Harvey, or Sale.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 10, 2015 10:19:44 GMT -5
I had thought this was a really good idea before I realized he is only entering Arb 1.
Still, I would be very aggressive in pursuing him. Devers, Rodríguez, Owens, Rijo would be my personal offer. If Fernandez did not carry the injury risks associated with throwing a baseball then I would consider Betts, Xander or Moncada. However because of that risk, I would "only" go as high as Devers and Rodríguez. If that's not enough, oh well. He will always be my counter to the argument the picking to 10 and 15 are the same (This case being 13 &19).
****EDIT***** I should also note that while Fernandez may be the best Starting Pitcher in a per inning basis, he has only pitched 120 ip over the last 2 seasons. No team is going to trade a 4 win 23 year old starting player for a guy with that injury history. The Sox would hang up the phone if the Marlins asked. If Fernandez goes out and pitches 200 innings then it is a very different story. Obviously the Marlins know this and would probably prefer to wait.
****Last Edit, I Promise******* In essence the problem with any Fernadez trade is this: He has too much of an injury history for any team to trade a Xander/Betts type talent with proven productivity and future growth potential for. Meanwhile at the same time he is way way too good and cheap for the Marlins to take anything other than an absurd package (and no depth does not count) in return.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 8, 2015 22:30:44 GMT -5
David Price now 0-6 in the postseason. Are you proponents still sure you want to sign him for 7yrs @ $210 million (or more)? Yes let’s use a sample of 47 IP to evaluate a guy instead of his other sample of 1,442 IP!!!!! Makes perfect sense.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 27, 2015 14:36:19 GMT -5
Latos has had significant makeup issues dating back to when he was a prospect for SD. I wouldn't touch him. Can you add a link to corroborate this? I do believe you; but there are all sorts of makeup issues. Jeff Kent, Manny Machado, John lackey & Jon Papelbon all had or have makeup issues. Then there are makeup issues like those of Jon Denney and Cody Kukuk. I would like to know what variety of makeup issues that you are using to dismiss a guy who was almost worth 4 WAR/200 IP for a stretch that was not too long ago.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 27, 2015 10:47:51 GMT -5
I don't think he's the type of risk we're in a position to assume or allocate a rotation spot to. We need a frontline guy, not someone who's unlikely to be more valuable than Miley or ERod. Now this is quite an over exaggeration. The guy was worth 14 B-WAR and 18.8 F-WAR before his 27th birthday, had a terrible age 27 season (though as mentioned above his peripherals were better than the stat line demonstrated by a well above average 3.55 FIP). He was never quite as good as some billed him to be (borderline ace is more than over generous) but he is a quality number three. How can Miley who has a 3 year AVG FIP of 4.00 and walks a batter more per 9 while striking out roughly one less per 9 and who is a year older be reasonably expected to match the upside of a guy who is has a 3.42 career FIP and 3 year average in the same zip code? Lastly, while it is in the realm of possible outcomes for E-Rod to be better than that next year, it is also just as likely that he is not. I am a huge fan of the kid, but he is only going to be 23 next season. If Rodriguez can pitch a full season with a FIP in the mid threes that will be a huge accomplishment and it is not a criticism to say that expecting him to do so at 23 is a bit lofty. The bottom line is that at the moment our rotation will be an Acquisition, Buch, Porcello, Miley, E-Rod, and Miley. Latos can reasonably be projected to be better than on of those guys (Miley) can help provide depth in case of injury (Buch) and also will make it easier to swallow if we need to trade either Owens or Miley in a deal to acquire a second front line SP or a first basemen.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 22, 2015 23:57:31 GMT -5
Fixed so that it is in a format that more closely resembles everyone else's lists. Additionally, It looks like there may have been a few guys that was sleeping on (Longhi most notably- so I have moved him up and have shifted players around).
The Top Tier (65-75 FV Ceiling) 1. Yoan Moncada 2. Anderson Espinoza
(55-65 FV Ceiling) 3. Rafael Devers 4. Manuel Margot 5. Andrew Benintendi 6. Michael Kopech
(Pretty sure is a 55 FV) 7. Brian Johnson
(50-60 FV) 8. Javi Guerra 9. Michael Chavis
(50 FV) 10. Sam Travis 11. Devon Marrero 12. Wendell Rijo
The Rest of the players are to varied to try to assign a generic FV score. Some like Dayan Diaz and Jon Aro look like decent future relivers. Others have considerable ceilings (acsta, Allen, Basabe) but carry a ton of risk
13. Pat Light 14. Nick Longhi 15. Logan Allen 16. Christopher Acosta 17. Mauricio Dubon
18. Luis Alexander Basabe 19. Dayan Diaz 20. Jonathan Aro
21. Edwin Escobar 22. Williams Jerez 23. Teddy Stank 24. Ty Buttery 25. Trey Ball 26. Josh Okimkey 27. Jalen Beeks 28. Luis Alejandro Basabe 29. Jake Cosart 30. Victor Acosta 31. Roniel Raudes 32. Marc Brakmen 33. Austin Glorius 34. Yoan Aybar 35. Marco Hernandez 36. Carlos Asuaje 37. Noe Ramirez 38. Austin Rei 39. Chad de La Guerra 40. Tate Matheny
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 30, 2015 11:47:27 GMT -5
Here is clip of him simply crushing a ball. It is an absolutely beautiful swing and he get the bat through soo quickly. There does not seem to be to much noise there, just quick and smooth which I love.
However he needs to develop a little more loft to the bat flip.... I see some potential there (it had nice rotation) but that part of his game needs to be developed.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 29, 2015 12:14:10 GMT -5
Not to get too sidetracked, but the Sale question makes me actually think of two damn good young pitchers who could be available for the right package. Both guys will be entering their first arb eligible season in 2016 and both are represented by Scott Boras.
Jose Fernandez & Matt Harvey.
I don't think Margot, Owens and Guerra quite gets either one, but I do believe that with each players contract status and team situations: Mets want to compete and have an amazing rotation but no offense. Loria's disdain for spending money. Both may be attainable and that those three could be used. I just don't have a sense as to what else would need to be offered. Rusney? Devers?
Please feel free to move elsewhere if this is too off the scope of the thread.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 14, 2015 18:19:12 GMT -5
Puig was almost 22 when he made his first appearance in A ball (it was High A)after having some time in instructs and rookie ball. He also had a total of almost 600 plate Appearance in the Cuban League before defecting.
Moncada just turned 20, had lees than 400 Plate appearances in the Cuban league.
At the end of the day we are discussing a guy who has had a bad 82 PA sample. If you consider his absence from playing pro ball for 18 month, his youth and relative inexperience this should not raise any red flags.
The whole scouting world thinks this guy will be really good. Nothing in the past month has changed that.
As far as my expectations for him are concerned, I think he will end the year with a solid but not spectacular season. I imagine a WRC+ around 110. For what it's worth he currently at 78.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 14, 2015 13:49:19 GMT -5
Obviously SSS, so don't pile on, but for a guy projected to make Portland, between the unexpected time in extended spring training, and the slash line of .208/.296/.602 22 ks in 72 ab, I have to say I was hoping for a quicker adjustment. Anecdotal reports have good ab with some loud outs, and the slump coincided with his hamstring injury. Then there is the obvious bad fielding, which is far less unexpected. It's almost like he had not played any form of organized baseball for almost 18 months....... Oh wait, that's right he had not.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 20, 2015 0:46:57 GMT -5
Take a moment just to watch the clips in this article. In just a blink of an eye, Vazquez is able to subtlety move pitches that were out of the zone into a location that makes the ump believes that were strikes. He is able to do this with just a nuanced flick of the wrist. There is no exaggerated movement, there is barley any lag, and no noticeable indicator of what was done. That can not be trained. That requires near divine hand eye coordination and fast twitch reflexes. If this were trainable, Captain Yale genius boy would have learned this years ago and been a stud and the website would have been named after Lavnarnway guy. Hell he even tricks the batter, as there is no argument by any three of the hitters in the three pitches he steals from them. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-christian-vazquez-is-partially-elite/
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 4, 2015 12:15:17 GMT -5
The problem with this line of thought is that there are a lot of people in line waiting to get paid after the dust settles and they may not all be willing to just hang around another few months. Moncada's exit from Cuba is still really murky and though it likely does not include narco drug trafficking scum bags, it may have taken some bribes and promises made to shithead members of bureaucratic offices in Cuba who allowed him to so easily leave. Not to mention his agent is just some CPA from St. Petersburg so it is not like he has houndreds of thousands of dollars at his disposal to keep this kid housed, fed, trained, entertained, showcased etc while he waits for a pay day. I am sure that he and those who have loaned him money during this process would like to see a return sooner than later. Ummmm where do you live that it takes hundreds of thousands of dollars "to keep this kid housed, fed, trained, entertained, showcased etc while he waits for a pay day." It doesn't take much if anything to do that... Food, shelter and entertainment are minimal and training is probably free as someone would train him and take money later if you actually needed to do that which they probably wouldn't and teams come to you to see him. While I must admit that neither one of us have any real idea of how much this process must cost the agency, I am positive that it is a small fortune. They have paid for: - His departure from Cuba - Him to be housed in Guatemala, with his own security detail. -A days rental of a semi-professional stadium in Guatemala. - Air Travel from Guatemala to the US - Housing in Florida - A lawyer to represent Moncada as he seeks to attain his Visa and establish residency They will need to pay: - Future showcases in American Stadiums - Additional travel not just for Moncada but for whomever else they may need to bring (The agent, translator) So yes, the agent or agency can easily expect to have to shell out an enormous sum of money during this process. Of course I have no idea what the cost of putting on a showcase is or what the cost of hiring a private security detail in Guatemala is but cheap and affordable are not exactly the first words that pop in my head.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 3, 2015 13:19:21 GMT -5
A team can convince him to wait and sign after June if they have the best offer. The favorite to me are the Yankees. This guy is basically made for them. And they have shown a renewed sense of helping out the farm. If they rate this guy as he has been billed then I don't see how they don't go all out for him. The problem with this line of thought is that there are a lot of people in line waiting to get paid after the dust settles and they may not all be willing to just hang around another few months. Moncada's exit from Cuba is still really murky and though it likely does not include narco drug trafficking scum bags, it may have taken some bribes and promises made to shithead members of bureaucratic offices in Cuba who allowed him to so easily leave. Not to mention his agent is just some CPA from St. Petersburg so it is not like he has houndreds of thousands of dollars at his disposal to keep this kid housed, fed, trained, entertained, showcased etc while he waits for a pay day. I am sure that he and those who have loaned him money during this process would like to see a return sooner than later.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 24, 2014 12:18:53 GMT -5
I honestly am skeptical he should be in the HOF. Not first ballot anyway. That has a lot to do with what I think makes a hall of famer: I think it should have more to do with being at the pinnacle of the position and the game. In Jeter's case, there really never was a time he was the best in the game. Early on Nomar and Arod were better, then when Nomar broke down and Arod moved positions Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes were better, the last few years Tulo has been the best and Jeter has been below league average. Derek Jeter had fives seasons where he put up 5 or more FWAR. That is elite production and one hell of a peak even if those seasons where not in succession.The perfect comparable for him is Craig Biggio. Both guys were above average you must have very high expectations for what is average. If we go with an average startrer should be worth roughly 2 fwar then Jeter only had 3 average seasons in his career and one below average season in his 18 years. Every other season he averaged being twice as valuable as an average player. a really long time (10th and 11th in career PAs), with like 2 years where they were among the top 10 or so guys in the league, and never a real MVP worthy season. Biggio will almost certainly get in before long, but hasn't made it yet in 2 attempts. The only significant difference between the two is that one played his entire career in the biggest fanbase in the game, while the other played for one of the smallest. The hall of fame should be about celebrating moments in time, so I think players who were iconic and clearly the best at there position and among the best in the game, even if its for a relatively short time, are at least as if not more deserving ...**cough (nomar) cough**... This is where I get really confused by your argument. Nomar's career highlight reel includes giving Ted Williams a hug at the 99 All Star Game. Jeter's highlight reel includes numerous playoff and world series changing hits, average plays that his lack of range made look difficult, and so on. Jeter was a keystone figure in a team that won a lot of games .
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 23, 2014 18:14:32 GMT -5
I'll never get the JD hate Obviously it is because players who consistently put up WrC plus of 130 and play above average right field are only valuable if they are gritty or are "run producers".
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 17, 2014 19:47:55 GMT -5
It is a good thing that the Obama administration is attempting to normalize relations with Cuba, and even moreso while a Castro is still in power. The US has a long history of trying to force it's will on Cuba and the whole of Latin America. The result of this has been animosity, distrust, and skepticism. If we really want to see a more democratic Latin America, we need to do a better job branding and marketing it.
To this end the embargo (which is still in affect as the executive action does nothing to end trade restriction) has been the single greatest piece of political propaganda that the Castro regime and other pretenders in South America have used to vilify the United States and halt the progress of liberal democracy. Fidel and Raul have used the embargo as an excuse for every problem and tragedy that has fallen on Cuban people in the past 50 years. Let's take that away from them, lets leave them with no excuse so that they have to stand accountable for their failures.
If we make changes now in our policy based on concessions made by the Cuban Governmment of today, then we make it much easier for the next political system to take its place.
As a Cuban American, I think we should be looking fifty years towards the future and not fifty years to the past.
With that said there are many who still bear the physical and emotional scars from the Revolution and the early years of the regime. Those like my late father and my aunt and uncle, may never come to the point where they are ok with the idea of the US negotiating with the regime that robbed them of their families, friends, and national identity. That should be expected. And though our government should not base it's foreign policy based soley on their experiences, please don't be a disrespectful asshole because someone disagrees with you. They have their reasons.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2014 11:25:25 GMT -5
So, since there is a good deal of luck involved in winning the world series, we don't have to worry about putting the best team possible on the field? We can be happy with pretty good and then rely on lady luck, hoping Farrell pulls exactly rhe right levers on the field at exactly the right time? I think the plan is to rely on a lineup that easily projects to be one of the best in baseball and you know just score more runs than the other guy. I forget what it is called when you do that. I thought it would be classified as winning, but apparently you can only do that if you have one really good pitcher taking the mound every fifth day. The Orioles last season won 96 games. Their best starter was Chris Tillman. Can we please stop this you need x to win games nonsense. Some teams win despite their offense, some despite their defense, some despite pitching. Some teams are balanced and don't stand out in any particular way and are made up of almost entirely 3 win type players. Some teams have a handful of studs that carry a team to success. And at the end of the day what all of these teams have in common is that they found some combination that allows them to score more runs than they allow. Getting stuck and fixated by ridged definitions and labels is not a great way to find the combination that best works for your team. So in that vein, if the off-season where to end today I would still applaud Cherington and Co for not getting forced into acquiring any specific type of player but rather on focusing on how to improve the team as a whole.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 12, 2014 11:16:26 GMT -5
As has been mentioned many times, the issue is that at Hamels is being paid accordingly. The only savings he offers are in years, which certainly mitigates potential risk.
If we trade a few seasons of an established cheap cost controlled back end guy as well as six years of a guy projects to be a 3 (with potential to be more) what more could the Phillies really expect to get? I think Marrero and Cecchini depite their limited cielings offer some nice cheap value. If Ruben Amaro is waiting for an offer substantially better than that, he is in for a long winter.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 12, 2014 10:46:58 GMT -5
I would rather not trade Margot. But I would definitely offer Kelly, Owens, Marrero and Cecchini. Hell maybe we take Papelbon off their hands and replace Owens with Barnes or Ranaudo.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 11, 2014 23:33:19 GMT -5
I believe around $151 million. Porcello is projected to earn around 12 million in arbitration, so that figure is closer to 173 million. Not to mention Tazawa and Nava's arbitration, which are around 4 mill. So 177ish million. This also doesn't include Wade Miley, who would tack on another 4 or so million. So 181 million. The luxury tax is 189 million (raised from last few seasons), so we aren't quite there yet. And could still deal Craig, Victorino, or Nava to free up a couple million. My current estimate is $170.2mm, including 25 players (with anticipated arb amounts for Porcello, Taz, Nava and Miley), the last Dodger payment and benefits/40 man roster payments. I note that ianrs' spreadsheet is based on payroll, not AAV for luxury tax purposes. A Shields signing would put the Red Sox over the tax threshold, absent other moves. Whelp, with Amfox's recalculations my post was completely off-base.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 11, 2014 23:23:13 GMT -5
Hm, I only added one person but then my list was nonempty before... Yeah, I typically try to give everyone the benefit of the doubt and had not used the function since the switch to pro-boards. But the ratio of completely useless drivel to interesting discussion these past few days pushed me over the edge.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 11, 2014 19:40:50 GMT -5
Protip: folks on the internet have lots of different opinions. Some are dumb. Some are one-sentence conclusory opinions not backed by any analysis. Some aren't worth responding to. I'll let you figure out what falls into which category. This might be a good time to remind everyone out there that there is an option to block the posts from specific members. I have been forced to use it a lot in the last 72 hours.
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