SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
10/7 Red Sox @ Rays ALDS Game 3 Thread
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 7, 2013 22:09:28 GMT -5
Take it easy people. Koji is HR prone and we all know it, just like Taz. It just came at a rotten time.
Tomorrow, he's man enough to be back at it again and the pen is still decent enough, which will be a good thing with Peavy on the mound, a even matchup (or better) with back end starter Hellickson.
Sox are still set to take the series before heading home. Take a breather and lighten up.
I get another "loser stub" (or my son does) to add to the collection of big games have also.. Like we are a jinx you'd think attending big games.
|
|
|
Post by bsout2 on Oct 7, 2013 22:16:17 GMT -5
Now on a serious note. Hellickson will start tomorrow, but I'm sure they will use Moore also at some point. The Red Sox can't go Nava, Salty, and Drew again. Middlebrooks must be moved up, so that part of the orde is not completly neutralized by a left handed pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2013 22:24:27 GMT -5
What really sucked about this game was that despite the questionable managerial moves - and the worst one was having Morales pitch in such a key spot, the Red Sox were in position to win this game.
Once Koji came in I breathed a sigh a relief and when I saw him get two outs on 3 pitches I was wondering if he could actually go more than 2 innings if need be and was thinking that the Rays were down to Archer and the Wrights, and I was beginning to like the Sox' chances.
And then Koji became human - I didn't see that Lobaton homer coming.
So crappy clutch hitting, a terrible outing by Buchholz, bad decision making, bad defense in the 8th inning, and the closer failing and all for 4.5 hours of aggravation. Would have preferred they lost that one in 2.5 hours.
Now I'm concerned that Peavy will be as rusty as Buchholz was. I have to believe Buchholz was rusty. He had absolutely nothing and was lucky to have only given up 3 runs. My concern is Peavy will be belted around the park - his control has been off since he's gone back to his old windup and he really hasn't pitched better since then and now he hasn't pitched in quite awhile. Meanwhile the Sox bullpen still sucks but at least Koji, Breslow, and Tazawa should be ready given that they barely pitched tonight.
I just hope Hellickson sucks real bad. The Sox need some 3 run homers. I'd like to see Napoli get going. I wonder if that foot is hampering him.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2013 22:27:36 GMT -5
Now on a serious note. Hellickson will start tomorrow, but I'm sure they will use Moore also at some point. The Red Sox can't go Nava, Salty, and Drew again. Middlebrooks must be moved up, so that part of the orde is not completly neutralized by a left handed pitcher. If they use Moore, I would think it would be in relief if Hellickson stinks tomorrow. Game 5 will be Price's game and for all the hyperbole I threw his way, I still think the Sox are in huge trouble if they go back to Fenway with Tampa carrying momentum and Price with a huge chip on his shoulder going for the Rays. I don't like the Sox' chances in that scenario and that's why I wanted no part of the Rays. The Rays have gotten the best of the Sox the past five years when they games have really mattered. They won in 2008 when I honestly think the Sox would have defeated the Phillies had they won Game 7. They erased a 9 game deficit in 2011 and that Game 162 victory was totally ridiculous. They have been the biggest thorn in the Sox' side. Beating them would be sweet. Blowing a 2-0 series lead would be quite painful.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 7, 2013 22:28:11 GMT -5
Will go with you there. guys without the ability to put the bat on the ball when there are runners at 3b and less than 2 out will kill a rally every time.. Cue Salty there.. The guy many here insist on signing to a bloated contract who ain't worth it.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2013 22:30:24 GMT -5
Will go with you there. guys without the ability to put the bat on the ball when there are runners at 3b and less than 2 out will kill a rally every time.. Cue Salty there.. The guy many here insist on signing to a bloated contract who ain't worth it. Hate to say it but they could have use some heroics by Pedroia in the 9th. Fortunately they weren't playing the infield in. And once Berry got to 2nd in the 8th Napoli and Salty and Drew came up small. Of course Berry should have been out anyways, but that was an opportunity missed.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 7, 2013 22:36:24 GMT -5
No, "momentum" will have no effect on this series people. Like, hypothetically, didn't the Rays have all the "momentum" before the Red Sox destroyed them in games 1 and 2? And didn't the Red Sox have all the "momentum" tonight before they blew it? If the Red Sox do play a game 5, "momentum" will play no role, the game will be decided between David Price and Jon Lester. This Red Sox team isn't going to melt under elimination game pressure, sorry. Does every single event have to be turned into an easy narrative?
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Oct 7, 2013 22:36:58 GMT -5
Will go with you there. guys without the ability to put the bat on the ball when there are runners at 3b and less than 2 out will kill a rally every time.. Cue Salty there.. The guy many here insist on signing to a bloated contract who ain't worth it. Hate to say it but they could have use some heroics by Pedroia in the 9th. Fortunately they weren't playing the infield in. And once Berry got to 2nd in the 8th Napoli and Salty and Drew came up small. Of course Berry should have been out anyways, but that was an opportunity missed. If only Pedroia wasn't hurt. He's still good, but a pretty mediocre #3 hitter with minimal power right now. Career worsts - by far - in slugging and ISO this season. The thumb is compromising him more than people realize. Man, a healthy 2008-2011 Pedroia in this lineup...
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 8, 2013 0:19:27 GMT -5
No, "momentum" will have no effect on this series people. Like, hypothetically, didn't the Rays have all the "momentum" before the Red Sox destroyed them in games 1 and 2? And didn't the Red Sox have all the "momentum" tonight before they blew it? If the Red Sox do play a game 5, "momentum" will play no role, the game will be decided between David Price and Jon Lester. This Red Sox team isn't going to melt under elimination game pressure, sorry. Does every single event have to be turned into an easy narrative? You have no more idea than I do or anybody if this Red Sox team is going to melt under elimination game pressure or not. Your opinion is they won't. That's fine, hope you're right, and you're certainly entitled to the opinion. I picked the Rays in 5 because of Price pitching twice (not that it did them any good in Game 2, but the likelihood of him pitching two stinkers isn't too good), and the fact that I don't trust the Sox bullpen in a close game, although the irony is I do trust Koji in a close game. Once the Sox tied the game in the 9th I really thought they'd win. Really hope I'm wrong about my opinion of the Rays winning in 5 and I look stupid tomorrow night and I'd gladly admit how wrong I was if the Sox win.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 8, 2013 3:37:26 GMT -5
Now on a serious note. Hellickson will start tomorrow, but I'm sure they will use Moore also at some point. The Red Sox can't go Nava, Salty, and Drew again. Middlebrooks must be moved up, so that part of the orde is not completly neutralized by a left handed pitcher. I didn't like that batting order when I saw it, for that very reason. Furthermore, WMB as a power guy makes more sense as an 8 hitter, with Drew as a second leadoff hitter in the 9 hole. A further help would be to bat Nava, the high-OBP guy and the better hitter, 5th, and Napoli 6th, which is what they did from early August to early September when Napoli was slumping. So you've gone from the virtual L R R L R L L L R | L R R L R L L L R to L R R L L R L R L | L R R L L R L R L If you split up the three virtual lefties, you have to have two pairs instead*. One pair should include Papi and one should include Ellsbury, since they're the two without the huge splits, and this accomplishes that. *You could swap Ortiz and Pedroia and go Ellsbury, Victorino, Ortiz, Pedroia, Nava, Napoli, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Drew, and have only one B2B lefty pair. Heck, if Victorino gets hot, you could move Pedey back to 2 and have Shane hit cleanup. But they should have moved Papi to 3 a long time ago**; doing it now would look like trying to fix what isn't broken. ** Once you've picked your two best hitters to hit 3 and 4***, there's a rationale that the high average / OBP guy should be 4 and the more slugger-like 3: the 4 hitter leads off more innings than the 3. This rationale balances the OBP-before-SA principle, and makes where you put the two guys primarily a matter of comfort and handedness. *** I'm not sure I buy the sabermetric finding that the two best hitters should hit 2 and 4, and that 3 is only about as important as 5. That's based on the average lineup with .350 OBP types hitting 1 and 2. The more you can better that, the more the 3 hitter's importance resembles the conventional wisdom, and once it gets close enough, you stick with the old way because the best hitters still like to hit 3 and will be comfortable there.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 8, 2013 5:41:48 GMT -5
Average GmLI (Leverage Index when entering game) of Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow so far: 1.41. Of Morales, Workman, and Dempster: 1.82. And that includes a 0.00 for Dempster.
|
|
|
Post by burythehammer on Oct 8, 2013 6:01:06 GMT -5
I guarantee Hellickson will shut them down tonight. They may win, but book that.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 8, 2013 6:25:29 GMT -5
I guarantee Hellickson will shut them down tonight. They may win, but book that. Hitting teams can go into slumps, and in the playoffs, even a momentary slump kills you.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 8, 2013 6:27:47 GMT -5
I guarantee Hellickson will shut them down tonight. They may win, but book that. Just to make sure, you're saying this knowing that Hellickson has been awful since July 31, right? 11 g, 10 starts, 45.1 ip, 61 h, 39 R (36 ER), 19 BB, 32 K, .326/.392/.513 slash against This was why it was so stunning that they named him the 4th starter over Archer.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 8, 2013 6:34:06 GMT -5
Average GmLI (Leverage Index when entering game) of Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow so far: 1.41. Of Morales, Workman, and Dempster: 1.82. And that includes a 0.00 for Dempster. So wait, are you trying to say these stats are useful, or posting them as a curiosity? You're talking about a three-game sample, and Morales and Workman have only pitched once each, that only in the game they absolutely had to pitch in. I mean, if you have specific issues with the usages, fine, point those out, but don't point to leverage index when the sample size makes it completely useless.
|
|
|
Post by hammerhead on Oct 8, 2013 6:46:25 GMT -5
Have you Game thread paranoid Schizophrenics been right about anything all year?
First it was: "this team is gonna be a .500 team they haven't looked good all Spring training... Cut Johnny Gomes !!11!!!"
Then it was: "they blew it in the third inning this game is over, Farrell sucks they don't have a closer !!111!!11!!"
Then it was: "This team won't make the playoffs they'll fade in the second half look at all the career years, why'd you have to trade Iglesias!!!11!!!!"
Then it was: "Buchholz is faking it there's no way he's pitching again this season!!11!!11!!!"
Then it was: "Tampa is only three games out this team is folding, they'll be lucky to get to the wildcard!!1!!"
Then it was: "Oakland has the best record clinched, the sox won't have home field advantage!!11!!1"
Then it was: "The Rays ohh shit, we can't beat David Price even in Fenway!!111!!!!!1! "
Now it's : "This season is over, they blew it last night, if the go back to Fenway they have no chance. FIRE FARRELL!!!!11!1!1"
When are you guys gonna let it sink in that this Red Sox team is actually really good. Farrell has been a tremendous manager (or maybe you want Valentine back?) This team has been resilient all year and Tampa still has their backs against the wall.
Hop on the bus, it's a fun ride enjoy it. Did anyone really expect a sweep?
Every single piece of adversity is not a catastrophe. This team has been so lovable because they thrive in adversity.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Oct 8, 2013 6:58:22 GMT -5
Have you Game thread paranoid Schizophrenics been right about anything all year? First it was: "this team is gonna be a .500 team they haven't looked good all Spring training... Cut Johnny Gomes !!11!!!" Then it was: "they blew it in the third inning this game is over, Farrell sucks they don't have a closer !!111!!11!!" Then it was: "This team won't make the playoffs they'll fade in the second half look at all the career years, why'd you have to trade Iglesias!!!11!!!!" Then it was: "Buchholz is faking it there's no way he's pitching again this season!!11!!11!!!" Then it was: "Tampa is only three games out this team is folding, they'll be lucky to get to the wildcard!!1!!" Then it was: "Oakland has the best record clinched, the sox won't have home field advantage!!11!!1" Then it was: "The Rays ohh shit, we can't beat David Price even in Fenway!!111!!!!!1! " Now it's : "This season is over, they blew it last night, if the go back to Fenway they have no chance. FIRE FARRELL!!!!11!1!1" When are you guys gonna let it sink in that this Red Sox team is actually really good. Farrell has been a tremendous manager (or maybe you want Valentine back?) This team has been resilient all year and Tampa still has their backs against the wall. Hop on the bus, it's a fun ride enjoy it. Did anyone really expect a sweep? Every single piece of adversity is not a catastrophe. This team has been so lovable because they thrive in adversity. Thank you
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Oct 8, 2013 7:05:38 GMT -5
Tough loss, but a very entertaining game.
Clay's fastball is still off a few mph and he was leaving the change up in the zone.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 8, 2013 8:38:53 GMT -5
I'm so nervous its going to be tough to watch this next one knowing if we lose we're facing an angry price in game 5...
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Oct 8, 2013 8:59:57 GMT -5
I'm so nervous its going to be tough to watch this next one knowing if we lose we're facing an angry price in game 5... Holy funk my man, is it the same David Price who threw a perfect game against us in game 1? I'm scared too, hold me.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Oct 8, 2013 9:00:52 GMT -5
I'm so nervous its going to be tough to watch this next one knowing if we lose we're facing an angry price in game 5... You're upset that you'll be worried tonight, cause if we lose, then you might end up pissed in three days! You (and many others here) sound like my dad, who predicted a loss before 16 of the Pat's 18 wins in 2006 (was that the year?) Of course, he was "right" that last time. I mean, I get it, it's a coping mechanism, and it passes the time, but let's try to only be nervous during the games, and upset after losses.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 8, 2013 9:09:43 GMT -5
I hate Longoria. He personally kept the Sox from finishing first in the Div in 08, then from going to the WS that year in the playoffs. He is the one guy on that team you do not let beat you- period. I would've not given him a pitch anywhere but the outside of the plate and if you walk him you face the rook who's been crapping his pants since the series started. Magic brain fart by Clay & Salty.
That said, Farrell mismanaged this game from the 7th inning on. We've all detailed the moves. This is the WORST team to let back into this series specifically because of their pitching. Hellickson may be off, but they will be all hands tonight, and their pen (save their closer) is better than ours. It will be essential to get men on base early and plate the men in scoring position when we do. It's also essential for someone beyond Ortiz and Ellsbury to step up offensively. Farrell also needs to stomach some reality and a helping of his own logic when it comes to Stephen Drew and lefties. That was the ball game in the 8th. He risks it on a guy who hasn't done it all year, yet uses year-long stats (or even smaller samples) to justify virtually every other "decision" move (Lackey starting at home, Ross facing Price, Morales late over Breslow (whom he pissed away on 2 batters) - because, according to the manager, Morales has been "hot lately." Don't give me those justifications and then plant a big wet kiss on a one-year rental who couldn't hit a lefty with an oar.
Everyone needs to step up tonight and stop believing what the media is shoveling about being "a juggernaut," "invincible," "a team of destiny" and this "Why go to Tampa" B.S.
One final word - this team is NOTHING offensively without Ortiz. You pinch run for him you HAVE TO sell out to get him in. That means pinch hitting for Salty and Drew against a lefty when Napoli once again demonstrates he may be regressing to June form.
OK, I'm done.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Oct 8, 2013 9:18:47 GMT -5
I hate Longoria. He personally kept the Sox from finishing first in the Div in 08, then from going to the WS that year in the playoffs. He is the one guy on that team you do not let beat you- period. I would've not given him a pitch anywhere but the outside of the plate and if you walk him you face the rook who's been crapping his pants since the series started. Magic brain fart by Clay & Salty. That said, Farrell mismanaged this game from the 7th inning on. We've all detailed the moves. This is the WORST team to let back into this series specifically because of their pitching. Hellickson may be off, but they will be all hands tonight, and their pen (save their closer) is better than ours. It will be essential to get men on base early and plate the men in scoring position when we do. It's also essential for someone beyond Ortiz and Ellsbury to step up offensively. Farrell also needs to stomach some reality and a helping of his own logic when it comes to Stephen Drew and lefties. That was the ball game in the 8th. He risks it on a guy who hasn't done it all year, yet uses year-long stats (or even smaller samples) to justify virtually every other "decision" move (Lackey starting at home, Ross facing Price, Morales late over Breslow (whom he pissed away on 2 batters) - because, according to the manager, Morales has been "hot lately." Don't give me those justifications and then plant a big wet kiss on a one-year rental who couldn't hit a lefty with an oar. Everyone needs to step up tonight and stop believing what the media is shoveling about being "a juggernaut," "invincible," "a team of destiny" and this "Why go to Tampa" B.S. One final word - this team is NOTHING offensively without Ortiz. You pinch run for him you HAVE TO sell out to get him in. That means pinch hitting for Salty and Drew against a lefty when Napoli once again demonstrates he may be regressing to June form. OK, I'm done. I keep trying to disagree with you but....I can't. I nominate you as the Sox manager next year and I'll bet that you'd work for a fraction of Farrell's salary.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 8, 2013 9:22:30 GMT -5
I'm so nervous its going to be tough to watch this next one knowing if we lose we're facing an angry price in game 5... You're upset that you'll be worried tonight, cause if we lose, then you might end up pissed in three days! You (and many others here) sound like my dad, who predicted a loss before 16 of the Pat's 18 wins in 2006 (was that the year?) Of course, he was "right" that last time. I mean, I get it, it's a coping mechanism, and it passes the time, but let's try to only be nervous during the games, and upset after losses. Im not upset, just nervous. We got beat and out-coached last night. Not that upset about it, it just makes me nervous for tonight.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 8, 2013 9:29:11 GMT -5
I hate Longoria. He personally kept the Sox from finishing first in the Div in 08, then from going to the WS that year in the playoffs. He is the one guy on that team you do not let beat you- period. I would've not given him a pitch anywhere but the outside of the plate and if you walk him you face the rook who's been crapping his pants since the series started. Magic brain fart by Clay & Salty. That said, Farrell mismanaged this game from the 7th inning on. We've all detailed the moves. This is the WORST team to let back into this series specifically because of their pitching. Hellickson may be off, but they will be all hands tonight, and their pen (save their closer) is better than ours. It will be essential to get men on base early and plate the men in scoring position when we do. It's also essential for someone beyond Ortiz and Ellsbury to step up offensively. Farrell also needs to stomach some reality and a helping of his own logic when it comes to Stephen Drew and lefties. That was the ball game in the 8th. He risks it on a guy who hasn't done it all year, yet uses year-long stats (or even smaller samples) to justify virtually every other "decision" move (Lackey starting at home, Ross facing Price, Morales late over Breslow (whom he pissed away on 2 batters) - because, according to the manager, Morales has been "hot lately." Don't give me those justifications and then plant a big wet kiss on a one-year rental who couldn't hit a lefty with an oar. Everyone needs to step up tonight and stop believing what the media is shoveling about being "a juggernaut," "invincible," "a team of destiny" and this "Why go to Tampa" B.S. One final word - this team is NOTHING offensively without Ortiz. You pinch run for him you HAVE TO sell out to get him in. That means pinch hitting for Salty and Drew against a lefty when Napoli once again demonstrates he may be regressing to June form. OK, I'm done. I keep trying to disagree with you but....I can't. I nominate you as the Sox manager next year and I'll bet that you'd work for a fraction of Farrell's salary. But I'll get fired for not doing the fungo drills properly! It's a curse.
|
|
|